东亚季风指数及其与大尺度热力环流年际变化关系

将东西向海平面气压差与低纬度高、低层纬向风切变相结合 ,定义了东亚季风指数 ,该季风指数较好地反映了东亚冬、夏季风变化。其中 ,夏季风指数年际异常对西太平洋副热带高压南北位置变化和长江中下游旱涝具有较强的反映能力。分析表明 :东亚夏季风年际变化与印度洋 -西太平洋上空反 Walker环流及夏季越赤道南北半球间的季风环流呈显著正相关关系。在强、弱异常东亚夏季风年份 ,异常的 Walker环流在西太平洋上的辐合 (辐散 )中心在垂直方向不重合 ,高层 ( 2 0 0 h Pa)速度势与东亚夏季风显著相关区域位于西北太平洋上 ,该异常环流的高层的辐合 (辐散 )通过改变低层空气质量而影响夏季 50 0 h Pa西北太平洋副热带高压。采用 SVD分析进一步发现 :与海温耦合的异常 Walker环流在西太平洋上空的上升支表现出南北半球关于赤道非对称结构 ,亚澳季风区受该异常 Walker环流控制。因而 ,东亚季风与热带海气相互作用可直接通过这种纬向非对称的 Walker环流发生联系。     

TBB资料所揭示的亚澳季风之季节循环特征和年际异常

文章利用日本GMS所观测的黑体辐射温度TBB资料研究了亚澳季风的季节循环特征，结果表明:TBB资料在相当大的程度上确能反映低中纬环流系统的变化，它不仅再次证实了已有的关于亚澳季风季节进退的认识，并且揭示了一些新的现象，从而给出了一幅亚澳季风系统季节循环的完整图象。另外，文章还就TBB双赤道低值带的形成，以及由TBB资料所反映的亚澳季风之年际异常特征进行了研究。     

Relationship between cross-equatorial flows over the Bay of Bengal and Australia in boreal summer:Role of tropical diabatic heating

本文通过对1979-2017年夏季925 hPa经向风异常进行经验正交函数(EOF)分解,研究了亚澳季风区内越赤道气流的年际变化特征.结果表明,越赤道气流的第一模态表现为亚澳季风区内不同通道间的同相变化,即一致加强或减弱;第二模态表现为孟加拉湾和澳大利亚越赤道气流的反相变化,其中新几内亚和孟加拉湾越赤道气流的反相变化最...     

北半球冬季亚澳振荡与亚澳地区气候的关系

再分析资料的EOF结果揭示出,冬季亚澳季风区对流层上层位势高度场存在着南北反相变化的振荡—亚澳振荡（AAD）,并定义亚澳振荡强度指数（AADI）。通过相关和合成分析,结果表明,冬季亚澳振荡与同期北半球冬季亚澳地区天气、气候之间存在显著相关。在年际尺度和年代际尺度上,AAD与同期北半球冬季亚澳地区气温、降水的异常显著相关,在年际信号上叠加年代际信号后,该指数与亚澳地区的气温和降水的相关更为显著。冬季亚澳振荡强年对应着同期冬季鄂霍次克海高压（阿留申低压）,东亚大槽和阿拉斯加脊以及极锋急流偏强;高低纬度之间的经向环流增强,副热带急流偏南偏强。这种关系本质上反映出了亚澳季风系统不仅是海陆温差的产物,也受到对流层上层温度南北差异的强迫。     

1982—1983年冬季亚澳地区季风环流的低频演变特征

本文应用1982年11月16日—1983年3月15日欧洲中期预报中心的格点资料及向外长波辐射资料(OLR),考察了冬季亚澳季风区季风环流的演变规律。分析了冬季亚澳季风盛期的月平均流场;对澳大利亚季风活跃与中断的几个不同时期流场进行了对比。结果表明,冬季亚澳地区季风环流的演变具有准40天低频振荡特征。主要表现是局地哈得莱环流的准40天强弱变化,澳大利亚季风槽的东西进退,以及北半球副热带高压的东西摆动。      

冬夏东亚季风环流对太平洋热状况的响应

冬夏隔季韵律关系一直是我国长期天气预报和短期气候预测的一个重要依据,然而迄今为止对它们之间的物理过程及成因机理并不十分清楚。利用NCEP/NCAR全球2.5°×2.5°网格月平均再分析资料,研究1951~2000年冬夏东亚季风环流异常变化与太平洋海面温度(SST)的关系及对关键海温区响应机理。研究指出:冬夏东亚季风环流隔季韵律关系及其年际变化与赤道东太平洋海面温度异常(SSTA)变化密切相关,冬季赤道东太平洋出现La Ni~na(El Ni~no)型的SST分布,有利冬、夏东亚季风环流加强(减弱),其影响过程通过赤道Walker环流强(弱)以及东亚地区Hadley环流强(弱)过程完成。冬季赤道东太平洋海温变化是冬、夏东亚环流季节以及年际变化的一个重要外强迫因子。     

东半球夏季低空越赤道气流的年际变化

利用1948—2006年NECP/NCAR的风场、高度场、海平面气压场以及地表温度再分析资料,采用相关分析、合成分析及回归分析等方法,探讨了东半球夏季低空越赤道气流的年际变化特征以及越赤道气流强度与环流系统和前期海陆热力差异的关系。结果表明,越赤道气流强度的年际变化和同期南北半球低纬环流系统,特别是亚澳大陆气压差关系密切。此外,索马里急流和孟加拉湾越赤道气流受海陆热力差异的影响,而东亚越赤道气流则主要受海温影响。     

耦合模式FGOALS_s 模拟的亚澳季风年际变率及ENSO

本文评估了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 (LASG/IAP) 新一代耦合气候模式FGOALS_s对亚澳季风和ENSO的模拟。结果表明, FGOALS_s可以模拟出亚澳季风的主要气候态特征。FGOALS_s模拟的ENSO事件振幅为观测值的70%, 同时它合理再现了ENSO周期的非规则性。FGOALS_s可以定性模拟出ENSO的主要空间特征。当赤道东太平洋SST升高时, 印度洋和西太平洋海表面气压升高, 而东太平洋海表面气压降低。FGOALS_s的主要缺陷在于模拟的ENSO峰值多出现在春季和夏季。与ENSO振幅偏小相反, FGOALS_s模拟的亚澳季风年际变率振幅大于观测。但是观测中亚澳季风年际变率与ENSO暖位相的显著负相关关系, 在模式中没有得到合理再现, 原因部分可归之于耦合模式在ENSO锁相模拟上的缺陷。由于模式模拟的ENSO峰值出现在北半球春季和夏季, Walker环流异常下沉支移动到西北太平洋, 其激发出的异常反气旋位置较之观测要偏东, 导致印度季风降水和El Niño的负相关关系不显著; 在北半球冬季, 由于模式中的赤道东太平洋SST暖异常较弱, 亚澳季风响应也偏弱。此外, 由于赤道东太平洋SST异常向西伸展, 观测中位于澳洲季风区的辐散中心向西偏移, 最终导致模式中澳洲季风降水与ENSO的负相关同样不显著。     

赤道印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响

对近百年观测资料的分析表明赤道印度洋海温(SST)确实存在着偶极子型振荡的变化特征,它在9～11月最强,而在1～4月最弱;年际变化(4～5年周期)和年代际变化(主要为20～25年周期)也十分清楚.这个偶极子主要有正位相型(海温西高东低)和负位相型(海温东高西低);一般正位相型的振幅强于负位相型.尽管在极个别年赤道印度洋海温偶极子似乎与太平洋ENSO无关,但总体而论,赤道印度洋海温偶极子与赤道太平洋海温偶极子(类似ENSO)有很好负相关.它们的联系主要是赤道大气纬向(Walker)环流.资料分析表明,赤道印度洋海温偶极子与亚洲南部流场、青藏高压和西太平洋副高都有明显关系,表明它对亚洲季风活动有重要影响.     

南北两半球大气的相互作用和季风的本质

理性分析和利用NCEP/NCAR资料进行统计分析表明:大气环流的季节变化和越赤道气流即两半球的相互作用首先是由于赤道面与黄道面有交角而使太阳辐射有年变化所致,行星热对流环流是热带季风的"第一推动力",而地表面特性差异(海陆热力特性差异以及地形高度等)所导致的准定常行星波为"第二推动力".如以推动大气质量跨纬圈传输的效力来看,平均来说二推动力的功效之比为2:l.第二推动力在亚澳季风区与第一推动力合拍,使热带季风在亚澳区内最明显,而各经圈环流圈的上下及南北关联及与中高纬准定常行星波的配置则使全球范围内从低纬到高纬、从低空到高空有地域性的明显季节变化区,从而构成三度空间的全球季风系统.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;