上海城市热岛的小波特征

为研究城市热岛的时间尺度结构及其变化特征,利用Morlet小波变换对上海1999年冬、夏两季的城市热岛记录进行分析和计算,结果表明:(1) 上海城市热岛明显呈多时间尺度结构,是由各种尺度的热岛叠加而成.冬季的热岛尺度结构比较单一,夏季的热岛尺度结构比较复杂.(2) 上海城市热岛的日变化(16～32h)和周变化(128～256h)冬季比夏季明显.(3) 上海城市热岛的周变化的振荡波峰出现在周五和周六,而波谷恰好落在周一和周二.这可能是因为128～256h尺度的热岛受人为热和大气污染物的驱动,其影响滞后1～2天.     

合肥市夏季热岛特征研究

根据2002牟夏季高温期间合肥市城市小气候考察的资料，分析了合肥市夏季城市热岛特征以及热岛强度的历史变化。结果表明：1）合肥市夏季热岛强度的日变化与冬季明显不同，夏季晴天一天中热岛强度只出现一个峰值，其基本特征与Oke提出的理想状态下的城市热岛强度日变化的模式曲线非常相似，而冬季与高纬地区的加拿大卡尔加里城市的热岛强度日变化特征接近。这反映了冬、夏两季人类活动、能源消耗量的不同；2）随着城市范围的扩大和城市绿化工程的实施，合肥市热岛面积、分布形状有了一定的改变，但主要分布特征和强度基本没有变化。     

济南市城市热岛效应分析

利用1964—2006年济南市气温观测资料,分析了济南市城市热岛效应的年变化特征,济南市热岛效应有逐年增强的趋势。应用区域自动气象站2007—2008年逐时气温观测资料,结合济南市地理信息数据,分析了济南城市热岛的时空分布特征。结果表明:无论春、夏、秋、冬,济南的城市热岛在空间分布上均以泉城广场、市政府为中心呈环状放射发展。热岛强度以冬季最强,秋、春季次之,夏季最弱。济南热岛日变化规律是夜间大于白天,城市热岛以日为周期呈规律性变化,表现为快速形成、快速消失的现象。     

基于Landsat TM/ETM＋数据的北京城市热岛季节特征研究

利用1988—2006年20景LandsatTM和ETM＋数据分析了北京市城市热岛的季节变化特征。通过反演地表温度,建立统一的城市和农村区域,计算了城市热岛强度,并采用多项式拟合获取了城市热岛强度的季节变化曲线;同时,分析了热岛强度季节特征与气候因子的关系。另外利用4景2005—2006年不同季节Landsat TM影像,分析了不同季节城市热岛的空间变化特征,并选择穿越北京城区的两条不同方向剖线（SE-NW和SW-NE）,分析了沿剖线方向城市热岛与地表类型的关系。结果显示,北京城市热岛具有明显的季节变化特征,与总云量的季节变化关系显著。最大热岛强度出现在夏季,呈现片状发散和零星热岛并存的空间分布特征。冬季为冷岛特征,其空间分布与夏季热岛一致。春秋两季热岛强度最小,但春季热岛空间差异较大。在相同季节,城市热岛强度和空间尺度在不同剖线方向具有明显的差异,这与不同地类的空间分布有关。     

基于ＬａｎｄｓａｔＴＭ／ＥＴＭ ＋数据的北京城市热岛季节特征研究

利用１９８８—２００６年２０景ＬａｎｄｓａｔＴＭ和ＥＴＭ＋数据分析了北京市城市热岛的季节变化特征。通过反演地表温度,建立统一的城市和农村区域,计算了城市热岛强度,并采用多项式拟合获取了城市热岛强度的季节变化曲线;同时,分析了热岛强度季节特征与气候因子的关系。另外利用４景２００５—２００６年不同季节ＬａｎｄｓａｔＴＭ影像,分析了不同季节城市热岛的空间变化特征,并选择穿越北京城区的两条不同方向剖线（ＳＥ ＮＷ 和ＳＷ ＮＥ）,分析了沿剖线方向城市热岛与地表类型的关系。结果显示,北京城市热岛具有明显的季节变化特征,与总云量的季节变化关系显著。最大热岛强度出现在夏季,呈现片状发散和零星热岛并存的空间分布特征。冬季为冷岛特征,其空间分布与夏季热岛一致。春秋两季热岛强度最小,但春季热岛空间差异较大。在相同季节,城市热岛强度和空间尺度在不同剖线方向具有明显的差异,这与不同地类的空间分布有关。     

基于MODIS资料分析近15年广州城市热岛特征及演变规律

利用MODIS地表温度数据,计算城市热岛强度指数,分析近15年广州市城市热岛的时空分布特征及演变规律,并结合气象观测数据、社会统计数据定性分析其主要影响因素。结果表明:广州市城市热岛的空间分布受地形地貌影响明显,负热岛区主要分布于森林密集的北部山区,无热岛区主要分布于中部低山丘陵区域,热岛区主要分布于高度城市化的中南部平原区。关于城市热岛的日变化规律,白天热岛区、负热岛区面积均小于夜间,但白天热岛区强度、负热岛区强度大于夜间。关于城市热岛的季节变化规律,冬季热岛区面积最大,热岛强度最小,夏季热岛区面积最小,热岛强度最大;冬季负热岛区面积最小,负热岛强度最小,夏季负热岛区面积最大,负热岛强度最大。对于城市热岛的年际变化规律,近15年来广州市的热岛区、负热岛区占全市总面积的百分比呈上升趋势,无热岛区所占百分比呈下降趋势,人为热排放在城市中心区域的持续增长,加上区内建筑物密度大、植被覆盖度低,导致了热岛区的增加,而北部山区至中部丘陵山区的植被的持续好转,加上地理特征限制了该区域的城市化发展,导致了负热岛区的增加。      

不同气象条件下济宁城市热岛效应的变化特征

利用1981—2013年济宁、兖州、嘉祥、汶上站逐日4个时次的平均气温、平均风速、降水量、云量和能见度资料,对不同天气条件下济宁市的城市热岛效应进行研究.结果表明:济宁城市热岛效应具有明显的月季变化特征和日变化特征,具体为冬半年明显高于夏半年,白天的热岛强度明显低于夜间,中午前后最弱;济宁市四季热岛强度的变化规律是冬季最强,夏季最弱,春秋居中,除秋季外均呈现缓慢上升趋势.在不同气象条件下,济宁城市热岛强度也存在很大差异,其中在晴朗无风气象条件下表现最为突出,平均值达到0.79 ℃,其昼夜变化幅度也最大;在降雨时城市热岛强度最小,平均仅有0.09 ℃,其昼夜变化幅度也最小;大于等于4.0 m/s大风天气和雾均多发生在秋冬季,且雾对城市热岛的形成和昼夜变化影响明显大于风对城市热岛的影响;在晴朗无风和大雾条件下,02时热岛强度最强,当有降水出现时,20时热岛强度最强,出现大风天气时,08时热岛强度最强,所有研究天气条件下,14时热岛强度均表现为最弱.     

2014-2017年西安市城市热岛、冷岛精细化时空特征分析

选取1971—2017年7个国家级气象站的气温资料,分析年代际气温变化特征及城郊温差、城县温差;选取2014—2017年103个国家考核区域气象站及7个国家级气象站逐时气温资料,利用标准化相对气温法,研究西安市城市热岛、冷岛的年、季平均空间分布特征,以及逐日热岛、冷岛变化规律。结果显示:1971—2017年城区、郊区和郊县气温均呈上升趋势,城区增温速率最大,郊县增温速率最小,进入21世纪后,城市热岛效应较为显著。西安市城市热岛、冷岛现象明显,且均呈"多中心"特征,热岛中心多为老城区及旅游中心,建筑物面积和人口密度占绝对优势;冷岛中心多为地势较高、水域绿被覆盖较大、非人口密集区的秦岭坡脚线附近。城区代表站的年、春季、夏季、秋季基本处于平稳状态,年、春季、夏季06—07时热岛强度最大,秋季、冬季23时热岛强度最大;郊区代表站和郊县代表站的年及四季热岛、冷岛强度均有明显的日变化特征,且变化趋势相反;郊区代表站10时热岛转为冷岛,春、夏季16—17时转为热岛,年及秋、冬两季19—20时转为热岛;郊县代表站年、春季、夏季06—07时冷岛强度最大,秋季、冬季2时冷岛强度最大,08时后冷岛开始减弱,12—13时为最弱后开始增强。     

昆明城市热岛效应变化特征研究

利用昆明周边多个自动气象站观测的2004~2012年温度序列,研究了昆明城市热岛效应的日、季节和年际变化特征,并分析了昆明城市热岛水平分布和变化趋势。昆明城市热岛强度具有明显的日变化,夜间较强,白天较弱。城市热岛强度一般在早上08:00(北京时间,下同)达到最大值,在午后14:00减弱或消失。城市热岛强度在冬季最强,春、秋季次之,夏季最弱。昆明城市热岛强度多年平均值为1.27°C,在2004~2009年期间表现为逐年递减的趋势,其年际变化的主要影响因子是云量。2004~2007年昆明城市热岛中心主要分布在主城区。2008年以后,由于中小城镇经济和人口的迅速发展,昆明城市热岛面积不断扩大,并出现热岛中心向呈贡、石林一带偏移的现象。     

上海城市热岛的变化特征分析

利用最近安装于上海城市和近郊的Davis自动气象观测每半小时一次详细的记录，对上海市热岛的变化特征进行初步分析。结果表明：上海市城市热岛全年出现概率为87．8％，月平均热岛强度值大于0．8℃；热岛强度日变化明显，存在24小时的主要周期和12小时的次周期，一般是夜间热岛强于白天；其季节变化亦较显著 ，平均热岛强度秋冬季节较强，夏季较弱；热岛中心存在位置漂移现象。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Information for Authors

正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography.     

Connections between the Eurasian teleconnection and concurrent variation of upper-level jets over East Asia

The variation of the East Asian jet stream(EAJS) associated with the Eurasian(EU) teleconnection pattern is investigated using 60-yr NCEP–NCAR daily reanalysis data over the period 1951–2010. The EAJS consists of three components: the polar front jet(PFJ); the plateau subtropical jet(PSJ); and the ocean subtropical jet(OSJ). Of these three jets over East Asia,the EU pattern exhibits a significant influence on the PFJ and OSJ. There is a simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ. A significant positive correlation is found between the EU pattern and the OSJ when the EU pattern leads the OSJ by about 5 days. There is no obvious correlation between the EU pattern and the PSJ. The positive EU phase is accompanied by a weakened and poleward-shifted PFJ, which coincides with an intensified OSJ. A possible mechanism for the variation of the EAJS during different EU phases is explored via analyzing the effects of 10-day high-and low-frequency eddy forcing. The zonal wind tendency due to high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ, as well as the northward/southward shift of the PFJ. High- and low-frequency eddy forcing are both responsible for the positive correlation between the EU pattern and the OSJ, but only high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the lagged variation of the OSJ relative to the EU pattern. The negative correlation between the EU pattern and winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China is maintained only when the PFJ and OSJ are out of phase with each other. Thus, the EAJS plays an important role in transmitting the EU signal to winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China.     

THE INFLUENCES OF SSTA OVER KUROSHIO AND ITS EXTENSION ON RAINFALL IN NORTHEAST CHINA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF TWO DIFFERENT EL NIO CASES

By using the gauged rainfall in 160 stations within mainland China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the impacts of anomalous SST in Kuroshio and its extension on precipitation in Northeast China were investigated. The results show that a difference in the meridional circulation such as the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern(EAP)may be responsible for the difference in rainfall between 1998 and 2010. In comparison with 1998, the anomalous meridional circulation pattern in 2010 shifted northeastward, and then the western subtropical high, the mid-latitudinal trough and the northeastern Asia blocking high also shifted northeastward, causing intensified convergence of the cold and warm air masses at the southern region and thus more rainfall in the southwestern region and less in the northwestern region. In 1998, the anomalous cyclone, one component of the meridional pattern, located at the Songhuajiang-Nengjiang River basin, resulted in more rainfall in the majority of the area. The results of observation and the model show that the difference in SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension under the background of different El Ni觡o events is the key point:(1) The anomalous warmth moved westward from the mid-Pacific to the east of the Philippine Sea during the central event, which led the heat resources shifting to the northeast in 2010; subsequently, a shift occurred to the north of the anomalous ascent and decent, followed by a warm SSTA in the region of Kuroshio's extension in 2010 and Kuroshio in 1998.(2) The warm SSTA in the Kuroshio extension causing the Rossby wave activity flux strengthened in 2010, and then the westerly jet shifted northward and extended eastward. A warm SSTA in Kuroshio and cold SSTA in its extension in 1998 caused the westerly jet to shift southward and weaken. As a result,the anomalous anticyclone and cyclone shifted northward in 2010, and the blocking high also shifted northward.     

<p>PARTITION OF SEASON BASED ON MULTIELEMENTS AND THE DECADAL CHANGE OF SEASON DURATION IN CHINA</p>

<p>Using the multielements similarity measurement method and 1950–C2017 NCEP/NCAR gridded daily reanalysis datasets, we analyzed season duration in China during 1950–C2016, and we defined the element with maximum absolute sensitivity as the key impact element at each point using the sensitivity analysis method. The decadal change of season duration and its key impact element before and after 1980 were studied. The results indicated obvious meridional and zonal differences in the distribution of season duration for the 67-year average, and that the key impact element has the same distribution characteristics as season duration. In addition, complementary relationships were found between the durations of spring and summer, autumn and winter, and the cold and warm seasons. Of those, the complementary relationship between the durations of spring and summer was strongest and the regions of complementarity were numerous. The complementary regions of autumn and winter durations were found mainly in western China. In the cold and warm seasons, the complementary regions were widespread and the complementary relationship was generally weak. Comparison of the periods before and after 1980 revealed an east–Cwest difference in the interdecadal variation of season duration. Interdecadal variation in spring and summer was found concentrated in northern and western regions, while that in autumn and winter was concentrated in the western region. Areas of significant interdecadal variation of the key elements were found concentrated in northern and western regions, corresponding well with the areas of significant interdecadal variation of season duration.</p>     

Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050

Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.     

碳交易政策的经济影响:以广东省为例

通过构建广东省两区域动态模型,对广东省碳交易及其他政策措施进行定量评估,分析实施可调控总量的碳交易政策机制对广东省及参与交易部门的经济影响。研究结果表明,按照减排情景到2015年广东完成19.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景,GDP将减少0.7%;按照强减排情景到2015年将完成20.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景GDP将减少0.9%;如果在强减排情景的基础上实施碳交易政策,GDP相对基准情景减少0.8%,到2015年实施碳交易政策可减少GDP损失约90亿元,说明广东建立碳排放权交易机制能够发挥支持经济发展和节能减碳双赢的作用。