随机强迫对集合预报效果的影响研究

以Lorenz96模式为动力框架,建立了考虑模式随机强迫不确定性的集合预报系统,并选择模式气候态和集合平均预报效果为研究对象,研究随机强迫对集合预报效果的影响.结果表明,在数值模式积分过程中引入恰当的随机强迫构成的新计算范式,较非随机强迫更接近真值的气候平均与气候标准差,对刻画数值模式的气候态也有正效果;且随机强迫的正效果主要体现在长时效阶段.集合平均预报方面,绝大部分白噪声随机强迫对应的集合预报效果优于非随机强迫集合预报,集合预报效果也随白噪声强迫增大非单调变化,并且非线性系统不同,相同比率的白噪声随机强迫产生的效果也不同.同时,绝大部分红噪声随机强迫对应的集合预报效果也优于非随机强迫集合预报,但仅部分φ(表示所引入外强迫的随机性部分和确定性部分相互耦合的一个度量)值对应的红噪声强迫集合预报优于白噪声随机强迫集合预报;而且红噪声随机强迫集合预报改善效果随系数的正负分布非对称且非单调变化.此外,相关系数φ的选择也依赖于模型.     

中期天气变化和中期预报

1引言从宏观上讲，全球大气运动是不可分割的统一整体运动。大气内部在各个纬带、各种尺度、各种频率的运动形式之间相互依存、相互制约、相互影响，按照大气动力学能量串级理论和能量频散原理，大尺度运动系统既可向小尺度系统转移能量，也可从小尺度系统获得能量。这样，各种尺度运动系统就会通过非线性相互作用引起大气环流形势的持续异常或急剧变化。天气、气候变化的直接原因是大气环流的变化或异常。从预报的角度讲，不同时效的预报要侧重考察相应长度的天气过程和长于预报时效的大型环流系统。天气尺度系统是短期预报的主要对象。而…     

关于大气过程可预报性问题的一些讨论

从非线性角度重新解读了von Neumann提出的大气运动三个分类，指出大气过程预报问题中存在两类不确定性——初始条件的不确定性和外强迫条件的不确定性，它们分别成为第一类可预报性与第二类可预报性问题的研究对象。强调了大气过程可预报性的客观存在性，由于大气过程的复杂性及人类观测手段和认识水平的限制，人们只能给出这些可预报性的估计，逐日天气预报存在上限(2周左右)。分析了预报误差产生的来源是初始条件的不确定性和预报模式的不完善性，但根本原因是大气过程的混沌本质；还分析了混沌系统误差增长理论，但由于实际大气过程包含很多显著不同的时空尺度以及不同尺度间的相互作用，人们对大气过程复杂的误差增长规律的认识还不是很清楚；最后讨论了动力学数值模式中不同的空间分辨率会改变系统的性质，指出可预报性问题的研究必须考虑空间分辨率的影响。而在讨论初值不确定性对预报的影响时，不需要考虑控制参数微小变化产生的影响，当然条件是控制参数的微小变化不会引起系统性质的重大变化。     

天气分析预报中的时空尺度问题

大气中存在着各种时空尺度的扰动。天气分析和预报中,不同时效的预报,必须恰当地选取预报量和预报因子的时空尺度。在统计预报中,很多作者强调预报因子的物理意义,我们在实践中体会到,预报量和预报因子之间的时空尺度的“统一”,是解决这个问题的重要环节之一。 一、“时空尺度”影响的事实和分析 天气系统的时间尺度往往是就其生命史长短而言,而空间尺度则泛指其水平和垂直方向范围的大小。研究表明,长、中、短期天气预报主要是以分析判别长、中、短期天气过程的演变为依据的。以长期预报为例,它的预报对象是长期天气过程变化的产物,因此和一种大范围、长时间的大型天气过程相联系。湖南省气象台发现,当9月和9—11月乌拉尔山地区500毫巴为高值区时,来年雨季结束早,否则迟     

应用新型散度方程诊断暴雨的触发和增幅机理

分析散度及其变化是进行暴雨研究的途径之,而传统的散度方程不能显示包含热力场分布影响散度演变的问题。因此,利用陈忠明等导出的新型散度方程和NCEP/NCAR(1°×1°经纬度)再分析资料,针对贵州省2007年7月25—26日持续性大暴雨天气过程,通过计算新型散度方程中的各项,定量诊断分析大气运动的正压非平衡强迫、湿斜压非地转与风垂直切变耦合强迫在暴雨发生发展过程中的作用,并与地面1、6h降水观测资料和卫星云图资料进行对比分析。探讨正压非平衡强迫、湿Q矢量与垂直风切变的湿斜压热动力耦合强迫导致辐合增加与暴雨发生、发展的动力机制。结果表明:强降水主要发生在近中性或弱不稳定层结条件下。大气运动的正压非平衡强迫导致辐合增加是强降水过程的触发机制;在暴雨维持和增幅过程中,湿斜压热动力耦合强迫在强降水的维持方面扮演了重要角色。当强降水过程发生后,才存在湿斜压热动力耦合强迫作用,湿斜压热动力耦合强迫作用是暴雨增幅的动力机制。未来6小时强降水发生的区域、降水强度、中心位置与散度演变的强负值区变化一致。新型散度方程对强降水预报有指导意义,可以作为诊断散度场演变的一种有效的数学工具。     

北极涛动的年代际变化及其气候影响

北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)是北半球热带外地区大气环流变率的主导模态,对北半球以及区域尺度气温变化具有重要影响。AO可在没有外强迫条件下通过波流相互作用形成,因此它被认为是全球气候系统内部变率的重要组成部分。研究年代际尺度上AO的变化及其气候影响,可加深对当前北半球气候变化规律的物理理解,也可为预估未来年代际尺度上气候变化及其不确定性提供科学依据。本文从AO影响东亚冬季风年代际变化的物理机制、AO对北半球冬季气温长期趋势的贡献、AO年代际影响的不确定性三个方面出发,简要回顾和总结了近年来有关年代际尺度上冬季AO时空变化及其对北半球气候影响的研究成果,并初步展望一些值得继续深入研究的问题。     

外强迫对热带季节内振荡影响的模拟研究

应用经过修改的NCAR CCM3模式和CAM2模式进行的数值实验结果以及NCEP的GFS模式的输出结果讨论了海温等外强迫作用对热带季节内振荡的影响.结果表明,热带季节内振荡是热带大气固有的内部变率.它是由大气内部过程的相互作用决定的.但外强迫对热带季节内振荡的强度、传播方向等有明显的影响.当外强迫没有变化时,模式可以模拟出与观测近似的低频振荡.当作为外强迫的海温和太阳辐射有年内季节变化时,模式模拟的季节内振荡则明显减弱.当海温与辐射不仅有季节变化而且有年际变化时,模式模拟的季节内振荡会进一步减弱.具有长周期的外强迫还会削弱季节内振荡中东移波动的能量而增加静止波的强度.在与海洋模式耦合的状态下,模式不受来自海洋的外强迫影响,而是与海洋构成一个耦合系统,可以产生最强的季节内振荡.     

末次冰期东亚区域气候变化的情景和机制研究

用一嵌套在全球大气环流模式中的区域气候模式,通过数值试验和对内外因作用的机制分析,探讨了以末次冰期为背景的大尺度强迫引起的大气环流和区域内下垫面条件异常等中尺度强迫影响区域气候变化的过程和机制。大尺度强迫和区域内局地的中尺度强迫通过不同的热力和动力学过程影响大气运动状况和区域气候的变化。末次冰期大尺度强迫引起的全球大气环流背景的变化是形成冰期和现代区域气候差异的主要原因。     

凤山寒露风分析与预报模式

在制作我县寒露风预报方案过程中,发现本县寒露风与太阳黑子、大气环流及前期地面气温等因素有较好的联系。据此,本文对此种联系作一粗浅分析,并以有关因素制作寒露风预报模式,应用于实践预报服务工作。 一、太阳黑子、大气环流与寒露风的统计关系 众所周知,寒露风实质上是秋季“寒露”季节前后从北方南下的强冷空气团。它的出现以及强度、范围等,是与大气环流状态密切联系的。从气候学角度来讲,大气环流状态的变化,是由辐射因子和环流运动的相互     

东海热带气旋路径的统计释用综合预报模式

以往热带气旋路径的多种客观定量统计预报模式由于受当时预报信息条件限制,在构造预报模式时,引入的预报因子均为预报初始时刻或之前的热带气旋参数、环境场参数及导出因子.由于热带气旋是在气旋本身内力、地球自转及外部环境场作用力综合作用下进行移动,而这些因素在气旋移动过程中又发生相当大的变化.这些变化往往是复杂的非线性变化过程.应用初始时刻预报因子的统计预报方法由于不能处理大气变化的主要非线性性质,严重影响了其预报精度与技巧水平的提高.尤其是预报时效超过48小时后,缺乏大气动力学与热力学基础的统计预报模式的预报误差的积累往往使预报结果失去意义.此外在应用这些预报模式时,许多预报因子的取得依赖于人工读数,费时费力,难以纳入自动化预报系统.     

The role of ocean dynamics in producing decadal climate variability in the North Pacific

 Decadal time scale climate variability in the North Pacific has implications for climate both locally and over North America. A crucial question is the degree to which this variability arises from coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions over the North Pacific that involve ocean dynamics, as opposed to either purely thermodynamic effects of the oceanic mixed layer integrating in situ the stochastic atmospheric forcing, or the teleconnected response to tropical variability. The part of the variability that is coming from local coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions involving ocean dynamics is potentially predictable by an ocean/atmosphere general circulation model (O/A GCM), and such predictions could (depending on the achievable lead time) have distinct societal benefits. This question is examined using the results of fully coupled O/A GCMs, as well as targeted numerical experiments with stand-alone ocean and atmosphere models individually. It is found that coupled ocean/atmosphere interactions that involve ocean dynamics are important to determining the strength and frequency of a decadal-time scale peak in the spectra of several oceanic variables in the Kuroshio extension region off Japan. Local stochastic atmospheric heat flux forcing, integrated by the oceanic mixed layer into a red spectrum, provides a noise background from which the signal must be extracted. Although teleconnected ENSO responses influence the North Pacific in the 2–7 years/cycle frequency band, it is shown that some decadal-time scale processes in the North Pacific proceed without ENSO. Likewise, although the effects of stochastic atmospheric forcing on ocean dynamics are discernible, a feedback path from the ocean to the atmosphere is suggested by the results. Received: 23 January 2000 / Accepted: 10 January 2001     

Feedback Mechanisms For The Atmosphere And Ocean Surface

Two kinds of feedback mechanisms in the coupling process between the atmosphere and ocean surface are identified in this paper. One is a negative feedback mechanism, which is effective in the dynamic interaction processes through momentum flux exchange. In this mechanism,the ocean extracts momentum from the atmosphere as a forcing field to generate waves, which decelerates atmospheric motions, lessening the intensity of synoptic systems. The second is a positive feedback mechanism, which is effective in the thermal interaction processes through heat flux exchange. This is a mechanism that is effective in the transport of sensible and latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere from the underlyingocean surface. As a result, the atmosphere obtains energy from the ocean, which intensifies atmospheric motions. For storm conditions typical of North Atlantic mid-latitudes, we consider these thermal and dynamical nteractions, the dominance of one over the other, and related implications for storm intensification.     

外强迫引起的夏季大气环流异常及其机制探讨

本文主要探讨了夏季模式大气对热带海温和高纬极冰异常的外强迫响应机制,结果表明,在大气环流模式长时间积分以后,不同的外强迫源均可在全球大气的一些关键性区域激发产生相同的环流异常型,即夏季大气主要异常型对外强迫源地理位置不敏感,很大程度上依赖于大气内部动力学过程.根据以上特点本文提出外强迫引起大气异常存在两类机制,其中外强迫和大气内部动力学过程相互作用机制是产生大气异常的重要动力学途径.     

大气热力强迫和动力强迫的调配及平均经圈环流的仿真模拟

通过研究平均经围环流（ＭＭＣ）及其所受的内外强迫作用的相互配置，指出对ＭＭＣ的热力和动力强迫满足确定的调配率。这一调配率受大气内在的斜压性、静力稳定度及绝对涡度制约。利用辐射加热和凝结加热参数化方案，结合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ＥＣＭＷＦ）的分析资料，对１月份平均经围环流进行数值仿真模拟。结果表明，热带对流加热可以形成双层Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流结构；涡动动量输送对双Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流的形成也有一定影响。中高纬度的ＭＭＣ则主要由外动量强迫及大气的动量和热量输送特征决定。     

MODULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL AND MECHANICAL FORCINGS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF MEAN MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION

Upon investigating the relative locations of internal and external forcing and the resultant mean meridional circulation,it was found that thermal forcing and mechanical forcing for the formation of atmospheric mean meridional circulation are modulated by a certain ratio.This ratio is determined by the inherent baroclinity,static stability and absolute vorticity of the atmosphere.By employing a parameterization scheme for radiative heating and condensation heating,together with the analysisdata of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,the mean meridional circulation for January wassimulated numerically.It was found that latent heat release in the tropics may result in the formation of double-layeredHadley circulation,so do the eddy momentum transfer processes.On the other hand,mean meridional circulations in extra-tropics are mainly determined by external momentum forcing and atmospheric properties of eddy momentum andheat transfer.     

大气对外强迫低频遥响应的数值模拟 II:对欧亚中高纬“寒潮”异常的响应

本文通过用IAP GCM所作的数值模拟研究了欧亚大陆中高纬度地区的外强迫在全球大气中激发的响应.结果清楚表明,同赤道地区的热源强迫一样,中高纬度地区的外强迫也可以在全球大气中产生低频遥响应;通过低频波列EAP,欧亚大陆中高纬度地区的寒潮异常可以对赤道中西太平洋地区的大气运动及全球大气环流有重要影响.对30—60天振荡的强迫激发来讲,地球大气的气候基本态是极为重要的,热带大气对于全球大气的低频振荡活动具有尤为突出的作用.     

The dynamics of uncertainty: application to parameterization constants in climate models

Climate models, ranging from statistical-dynamical to the explicit-dynamical, contain a range of uncertainties related to the parameterization constants associated with the various forcing terms used therein. Quantifying the impacts of such uncertainties has heretofore received little attention. The impact of this aspect of the dynamics of uncertainty was revealed in a series of dynamical systems of increasing complexity. The inevitability of climate drift was discussed, with one aspect being revealed as the non-Gaussian nature of most forcing terms. For those dynamical systems which are chaotic in nature, it was shown how stochastic dynamic equations can be used to describe the uncertainty, even with uncertainty in the critical forcing terms. The possibility of climate transitions driven by stochastic forcing occurring on much faster time scales (i.e., weather disturbances) has been shown by numerous authors. The caution shown here is that even very small uncertainty in a forcing term occurring on the slow climate time scales can lead to such transitions more easily. Conversely, a deterministic parameterization on the slowly varying time scale may be just slightly incorrect in a particular model formulation and lead to the wrong climatic state. In view of such concerns, the framework for attacking the difficult nonlinear problem of uncertain parameterization constants in complex GCMs is outlined.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

Nonlinear three- wave interaction among barotropic rossby waves in a large- scale forced barotropic flow

In this paper, the coupling equations describing nonlinear three-wave interaction among Rossby waves including the forcing of an external vorticity source are obtained. Under certain conditions, the coupling equations with a constant amplitude forcing, the stability analysis indi-cates that when the amplitude of the external forcing increases to a certain extent, a pitchfork bifurcation occurs. Also, it is shown from numerical results that the bifurcation can lead to chaotic behavior of “strange” attractor. For the obtained three-variable equation, when the amplitude of modulated external forcing gradually increases, a period-doubling bifurcation is found to lead to chaotic behavior. Thus, in a nonlinear three-wave coupling model in the large-scale forced barotropic atmospheric flow, chaotic behavior can be observed. This chaotic behavior can explain in part 30-60-day low-frequency oscillations observed in mid-high latitudes.     

The global distribution of sources of atmospheric decadal variability and mechanisms over the tropical Pacific and southern North America

 Understanding natural atmospheric decadal variability is an important element of climate research, and here we investigate the geographic and seasonal diversity in the balance between its competing sources. Data are provided by an ensemble of multi-decadal atmospheric general circulation model experiments, forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and verified against observations. First, the nature of internal atmospheric variability is studied. By assessing its spectral character, we refute the idea that internal modes may persist or oscillate on multi-annual time-scales, either through mechanisms purely internal to the atmosphere, or via coupling to the land surface; instead, they behave as a white noise process. Second, and more importantly, the role of oceanic forcing, relative to internal variability, is investigated by extending the ‘analysis of variance’ technique to the frequency domain. Significance testing and confidence intervals are also discussed. In the tropics, atmospheric decadal variability is usually dominated by oceanic forcing, although for some regions less so than at interannual time-scales. A moderate oceanic impact is also found for some extratropical regions in some seasons. Verification against observed mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data suggests that many of these influences are realistic, although some model errors are also revealed. In other mid- and high-latitude regions, local simulated decadal variability is dominated by random processes, i.e. the integrated effects of chaotic weather systems. Third, we focus on the mechanisms of decadal variability in two specific regions (where the model is well behaved). Over the tropical Pacific, the relative impact of SSTs on decadal MSLP is strongly seasonal such that it peaks in September to November (SON). This is explained by noting that the model atmosphere is responsive to SSTs a little farther west in SON than it is in other seasons, and here it picks up relatively more decadal power from the ocean (the western Pacific being less dominated by ENSO time-scales), causing atmospheric ‘signal-to-noise ratios’ to be enhanced at decadal timescales in SON. Over southern North America, a strong SST impact is found in summer and autumn, resulting in an upward trend of MSLP over recent decades. We suggest this is caused by decadal SST variability in the Caribbean (and to some extent the tropical northeast Pacific in summer), which induces anomalous convective heating over these regions and hence the wider MSLP response. Received: 30 November 1998 / Accepted: 22 April 1999