西太平洋区域二甲硫酸及其他硫化物的模拟研究

本文利用一维光化学模式，以二甲硫醚（ＤｉｍｅｔｈｙｌＳｕｌｆｉｄｅ，简称ＤＭＳ）为源模拟了西太平洋对流层的硫化物循环。ＤＭＳ海－气通量由“ｓｔａｇｎａｎｔ－ｆｉｌｍ”模式进行计算。尽管海洋大气中ＯＣＳ浓度比ＤＭＳ大一个量级，但它对ＳＯ２的贡献很小，ＤＭＳ仍是海洋大气中ＳＯ２的主要源。在大气垂直湍流输送过程中，ＤＭＳ白天与ＯＨ反应，夜间与ＮＯ３反应被氧化成ＳＯ２，ＳＯ２大部分通过非均相转化形成Ｈ２ＳＯ４。模拟结果与ＰＥＭ－ＷＥＳＴ－Ａ观测资料对比，取得了较好的一致性。     

海洋生物过程在海洋吸收大气二氧化碳中的作用

使用一个包括浮游生物（植物、动物和细菌）和无生命氮（有机碎片、溶解有机氮、硝酸盐和铵）的食物网来描述发生在海洋上层的生物过程。并将该生物模式分别用在佛罗里达海峡的一个固定位置和从佛罗里达海峡（２４°Ｎ,８０°Ｗ）流经挪威海（６８°Ｎ,１０°Ｅ）（扩展湾流体系,ＥＧＳＳ）的一个水块中,研究了海洋中上述的生物过程对水块吸收大气二氧化碳的影响。水块模式的结果十分明显地表明了海洋中的水华季,比包括浮游植物－浮游动物－硝酸盐体系得到的峰陡,结果更合理。扩展湾流体系中平均净初级生产力为４３ｇＣｍ－２ａ－１,小于观测值。模拟的总碱度,总二氧化碳和二氧化碳分压落在观测值的范围内,在水块吸收大气ＣＯ２的总量中生物泵的作用约占１６％。     

STUDY OF OZONE AND ITS PRECURSORS AT LIN’ANREGIONAL BACKGROUND STATION DURING THE PEM－WEST－A EXPERIMENT

ＳＴＵＤＹＯＦＯＺＯＮＥＡＮＤＩＴＳＰＲＥＣＵＲＳＯＲＳＡＴＬＩＮ’ＡＮＲＥＧＩＯＮＡＬＢＡＣＫＧＲＯＵＮＤＳＴＡＴＩＯＮＤＵＲＩＮＧＴＨＥＰＥＭ－ＷＥＳＴ－ＡＥＸＰＥＲＩＭＥＮＴＬｕｏＣｈａｏ（罗超），ｍｎｇＧｕｏａｎ（丁国安），Ｔａｎｇｊｉｅ（汤...     

GROUND-BASED MEASUREMENTS OF COLUMN ABUNDANCE OF OZONE AN

ＧＲＯＵＮＤ－ＢＡＳＥＤＭＥＡＳＵＲＥＭＥＮＴＳＯＦＣＯＬＵＭＮＡＢＵＮＤＡＮＣＥＯＦＯＺＯＮＥＡＮＤＵＶ－ＢＲＡＤＩＡＴＩＯＮＯＶＥＲＺＨＯＮＧＳＨＡＮＳＴＡＴＩＯＮ，ＡＮＴＡＲＣＴＩＣＡＦＯＲＴＨＥ１９９３“ＯＺＯＮＥＨＯＬＥ”ＺｈｏｕＸｉｕｊｉ...     

ＩＰＣＣＡＲ４中海气耦合模式对中国东部夏季降水及ＰＤＯ、ＮＡＯ年代际变化的模拟能力分析

利用１８８０—１９９９年中国东部３５站的观测降水资料、英国Ｈａｄｌｅｙ中心的海温和海平面气压资料以及ＩＰＣＣ第４次评估报告（ＡＲ４）中２０世纪气候模拟试验（２０Ｃ３Ｍ）的模式输出结果,对ＩＰＣＣＡＲ４中２２个耦合模式所模拟的我国东部夏季降水的年代际变化情况以及太平洋年代际涛动（ＰＤＯ）和北大西洋涛动（ＮＡＯ）的年代际变化情况进行了分析。结果显示,这些模式对２０世纪我国东部夏季降水年代际变化的模拟结果并不理想,但对降水在２０世纪７０年代中期前后的突变具有一定的模拟能力。其中ＩＡＰ＿ＦＧＯＡＬＳＬ＿０＿Ｇ可以大致模拟出２０世纪７０年代中期前后降水型的突变特征,而ＢＣＣＲ＿ＢＣＭ２＿０和ＵＫＭＯ＿ＨａｄＧＥＭ１则可以模拟出华北地区降水在２０世纪７０年代中期之后减少的现象。对于引起我国东部夏季降水年代际变化的重要因子ＰＤＯ和ＮＡＯ,模式对它们年代际变化的模拟效果略好于降水。多数模式都可以模拟出ＰＤＯ和ＮＡＯ的空间模态,其中ＣＮＲＭ＿ＣＭ３和ＵＫＭＯ＿ＨａｄＧＥＭ１对ＰＤＯ年代际变化（８ａ以上）的模拟与实际情况比较相似,并可以模拟出２０世纪７０年代中期之后ＰＤＯ由负位相转变为正位相的情况,而模式ＵＫＭＯ＿ＨａｄＧＥＭ１也对ＮＡＯ的年代际变化以及１９８０年以来不断加强的趋势模拟较好。     

厄尔尼诺期间热带温室效应的变化

利用实测晴空射出长波辐射和海表温度研究了１９８５年前期冷拉尼娜到１９８７年晚期厄尔尼诺期间热带温室效应的变化情况。尽管从冷到暖的状态变化中，逐月资料的比较可能得出温室罩作用在减弱，但从４年的观测记录整体考虑，热带平均温室罩有２Ｗ／ｍ２的明显增加，同时热带平均海表温度增温０．４Ｋ。将这种实际观测到的增加与ＧＣＭ模拟的ＥＮＳＯ期间晴空温室效应的变化进行了比较。在ＥＮＳＯ期间，很明显与ＳＳＴ的重新分布有关的动力变化叠加在ＳＳＴ驱动的温室罩变化之上。若能保证ＧＣＭ具有预测温室罩动力和热力变化的能力，那么，ＧＣＭ模拟也能成功地再现这种特征。     

海洋碳循环模式(Ⅱ)——对印度洋的模拟结果分析

把建好的海洋碳模式应用于印度洋区域,模拟得到了印度洋中与碳有关各化学量的表层分布、垂直分布和沿子午线面的等值线分布。与实测的ＧＥＯＳＥＣＳ（ＧｅｏｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌＯｃｅａｎ—Ｓｅｃｔｉｎｎ Ｓｔｕｄｙ）数据作对比,模式较好地再现了印度洋上营养盐浓度、总碳浓度、总碱度和溶解氧的二维分布。通过模拟还发现,在稳定状态下,大气和海洋中总碳含量的分布依赖于发生在海洋中的各种物理化学过程及边界条件,水平扩散系数Ｋｈ和光合作用常数率Ｋｇ对各化学量的分布有较大影响（以前有学者认为不太重要,如 Ｂａｅｓ［１］）;南印度洋中纬地区 １０°Ｓ至 ３０°Ｓ是１４Ｃ的重要向下渗透区域,人为排放的ＣＯ２可通过这片渗透区从海洋的表层输入海洋的深层。     

CHINA GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE WATCH BASELINE OBSERVATORY AND ITS MEASUREMENT PROGRAM

ＣＨＩＮＡＧＬＯＢＡＬＡＴＭＯＳＰＨＥＲＥＷＡＴＣＨＢＡＳＥＬＩＮＥＯＢＳＥＲＶＡＴＯＲＹＡＮＤＩＴＳＭＥＡＳＵＲＥＭＥＮＴＰＲＯＧＲＡＭＴａｎｇＪｉｅ（汤洁），ＷｅｎＹｕｐｕ（温玉璞），ＸｕＸｉａｏｂｉｎ（徐晓斌），ＺｈｅｎｇＸｉａｎｇｄｏｎｇ（郑...     

SHORT-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CAUSE AND CLIMATE PREDICTION IN CHINA

ＳＨＯＲＴ－ＴＥＲＭＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＣＨＡＮＧＥＡＮＤＩＴＳＣＡＵＳＥＡＮＤＣＬＩＭＡＴＥＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＯＮＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＷｅｉＦｅｎｇｙｉｎｇ（魏凤英）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＳｙｎｏｐｔｉｃａｎｄＤｙｎａｍｉｃＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ．）Ｂｅｉｊ...     

PROGRESSONTIBETANPLATEAUFIELDEXPERIMENT（TIPEX）ANDITSRESEARCHPROGRAMME

ＰＲＯＧＲＥＳＳＯＮＴＩＢＥＴＡＮＰＬＡＴＥＡＵＦＩＥＬＤＥＸＰＥＲＩＭＥＮＴ（ＴＩＰＥＸ）ＡＮＤＩＴＳＲＥＳＥＡＲＣＨＰＲＯＧＲＡＭＭＥ￥ＣｈｅｎＬｉａｎｓｈｏｕ（陈联寿）ａｎｄＸｕＸｉａｎｇｄｅ（徐祥德）ＰＲＯＧＲＥＳＳＯＮＴＩＢＥＴＡＮＰＬＡＴ...     

海洋对人为CO2吸收的三维模式研究

文中用包含海洋化学过程和一个简单生物过程的三维碳循环模式模拟了海洋对大气CO2 的吸收 ,并分析了碳吸收的纬度分布。模拟工业革命以来海洋对大气 CO2 的吸收表明 :海洋碳吸收再加上大气 CO2 的增加只占由化石燃料燃烧、森林砍伐和土地利用的变化而释放到大气中的 CO2 的 2 /3。1 980～ 1 989年期间海洋年平均吸收 2 .0 5Gt C。海洋人为 CO2 的吸收有明显的纬度特征。模式计算的海洋 CO2 的吸收在总量与纬度分布上与观测结果比较相符。     

海洋对人为CO2吸收的三维模式研究

文中用包含海洋化学过程和一个简单生物过程的三维碳循环模式模拟了海洋对大气CO₂的吸收,并分析了碳吸收的纬度分布。模拟工业革命以来海洋对大气CO₂的吸收表明:海洋碳吸收再加上大气CO₂的增加只占由化石燃料燃烧、森林砍伐和土地利用的变化而释放到大气中的CO₂的2/3。1980～1989年期间海洋年平均吸收2.05GtC。海洋人为CO₂的吸收有明显的纬度特征。模式计算的海洋CO₂的吸收在总量与纬度分布上与观测结果比较相符。     

A SIMULATION OF CO2 UPTAKE IN A THREE DIMENSIONAL OCEAN CARBON CYCLE MODEL*

A three-dimensional ocean carbon cycle model which is a general circulation model coupled with simple biogeochemical processes is used to simulate CO₂ uptake by the ocean.The OGCM used is a modified version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory modular ocean model(MOM2).The ocean chemistry and a simple ocean biota model are included.Principal variablesare total CO₂,alkalinity and phosphate.The vertical profile of POC flux observed by sediment traps is adopted,the rain ratio,a ratio of production rate of calcite against that of POC,and the bio-production efficiency should be 0.06 and 2 per year,separately.The uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ by the ocean is studied.Calculated oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ during the 1980s is 2.05×10¹⁵g(Pg)per year.The regional distributions of global oceanic CO₂ are discussed.     

Ocean-circulation model of the carbon cycle

A three-dimensional model of the natural carbon cycle in the oceans is described. The model is an extension of the inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model of Maier-Reimer and Hasselmann (1987) to include the effect of the ocean biota. It is based on a dynamic, general circulation model of the world oceans. Chemical species important to the carbon cycle are advected by the current field of the general circulation model. Mixing occurs through numerical diffusivity (related to finite box size), a small explicit horizontal diffusivity, and a convective adjustment. An atmospheric box exchanges CO₂ with the surface ocean. There is no land biota provided in the present version of the model. The effect of the ocean biota on ocean chemistry is represented in a simple way and model distributions of chemical species are compared with distributions observed during the GEOSECS and other expeditions. Offprint requests to: R Bacastow     

海洋碳循环模式(Ⅱ)——对印度洋的模拟结果分析

把建好的海洋碳模式应用于印度洋区域，模拟得到了印度洋中与碳有关各化学量的表层分布、垂直分布和沿子午线面的等值线分布。与实测的GEOSECS(Geochemical Ocean－Section Study)数据作对比，模式较好地再现了印度洋上营养盐浓度、总碳浓度、总碱度和溶解氧的二维分布。通过模拟还发现，在稳定状态下，大气和海洋中总碳含量的分布依赖于发生在海洋中的各种物理化学过程及边界条件，水平扩散系数Kh和光合作用常数率Kg对各化学量的分布有较大影响(以前有学者认为不太重要，如Baes[1])；南印度洋中纬地区10°S至30°S是14C的重要向下渗透区域，人为排放的CO2可通过这片渗透区从海洋的表层输入海洋的深层。     

Multiple sea-ice states and abrupt MOC transitions in a general circulation ocean model

Sea ice has been suggested, based on simple models, to play an important role in past glacial–interglacial oscillations via the so-called “sea-ice switch” mechanism. An important requirement for this mechanism is that multiple sea-ice extents exist under the same land ice configuration. This hypothesis of multiple sea-ice extents is tested with a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model coupled to an atmospheric energy–moisture-balance model. The model includes a dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice module, has a realistic ocean configuration and bathymetry, and is forced by annual mean forcing. Several runs with two different land ice distributions represent present-day and cold-climate conditions. In each case the ocean model is initiated with both ice-free and fully ice-covered states. We find that the present-day runs converge approximately to the same sea-ice state for the northern hemisphere while for the southern hemisphere a difference in sea-ice extent of about three degrees in latitude between the different runs is observed. The cold climate runs lead to meridional sea-ice extents that are different by up to four degrees in latitude in both hemispheres. While approaching the final states, the model exhibits abrupt transitions from extended sea-ice states and weak meridional overturning circulation, to less extended sea ice and stronger meridional overturning circulation, and vice versa. These transitions are linked to temperature changes in the North Atlantic high-latitude deep water. Such abrupt changes may be associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger events, as proposed by previous studies. Although multiple sea ice states have been observed, the difference between these states is not large enough to provide a strong support for the sea-ice-switch mechanism.     

Transport and storage of CO2 in the ocean ——an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model

Inorganic carbon in the ocean is modelled as a passive tracer advected by a three-dimensional current field computed from a dynamical global ocean circulation model. The carbon exchange between the ocean and atmosphere is determined directly from the (temperature-dependent) chemical interaction rates in the mixed layer, using a standard CO₂ flux relation at the air-sea interface. The carbon cycle is closed by coupling the ocean to a one-layer, horizontally diffusive atmosphere. Biological sources and sinks are not included. In this form the ocean carbon model contains essentially no free tuning parameters. The model may be regarded as a reference for interpreting numerical experiments with extended versions of the model including biological processes in the ocean (Bacastow R and Maier-Reimer E in prep.) and on land (Esser G et al in prep.). Qualitatively, the model reproduces the principal features of the observed CO₂ distribution bution in the surface ocean. However, the amplitudes of surface pCO₂ are underestimated in upwelling regions by a factor of the order of 1.5 due to the missing biological pump. The model without biota may, nevertheless, be applied to compute the storage capacity of the ocean to first order for anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. In the linear regime, the response of the model may be represented by an impulse response function which can be approximated by a superposition of exponentials with different amplitudes and time constants. This provides a simple reference for comparison with box models. The largest-amplitude (0.35) exponential has a time constant of 300 years. The effective storage capacity of the oceans is strongly dependent on the time history of the anthropogenic input, as found also in earlier box model studies.     

生物泵在海洋碳循环中的作用

生物过程在海洋碳的自然分布中起着重要的作用,它使海洋中碳的储量大大增加.作者用包含海洋化学过程和一个简单生物过程的三维碳循环模式模拟了生物泵在海洋碳循环中的作用.模式计算的结果表明:生物过程产生的海-气通量的量级非常大;在高纬度和赤道它的量级与因溶解度泵产生的碳的海-气通量差不多.在高纬度地区这两个通量符号相反,使组合模式中的通量大小比只有溶解度泵时的通量小,而在赤道两者的符号相同,使组合模式在赤道的通量大于只有溶解度泵时的通量.在稳态条件下生物泵对海洋吸收人为CO2的直接影响很小.     

Sensitivity of climate change projections to uncertainties in the estimates of observed changes in deep-ocean heat content

The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean are quantified by using the probability distributions derived from observed twentieth century temperature changes. The impact on climate change projections of using the smallest and largest estimates of twentieth century deep ocean warming is explored. The impact is large in the case of global mean thermosteric sea level rise. In the MIT reference (“business as usual”) scenario the median rise by 2100 is 27 and 43 cm in the respective cases. The impact on increases in global mean surface air temperature is more modest, 4.9 and 3.9 C in the two respective cases, because of the correlation between climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake required by twentieth century surface and upper air temperature changes. The results are also compared with the projections made by the IPCC AR4’s multi-model ensemble for several of the SRES scenarios. The multi-model projections are more consistent with the MIT projections based on the largest estimate of ocean warming. However, the range for the rate of heat uptake by the ocean suggested by the lowest estimate of ocean warming is more consistent with the range suggested by the twentieth century changes in surface and upper air temperatures, combined with the expert prior for climate sensitivity.     

An upper ocean general circulation model for climate studies: global simulation with seasonal cycle

The global ocean circulation with a seasonal cycle has been simulated with a two-and-a-half layer upper-ocean model. This model was developed for the purpose of coupling to an atmospheric general circulation model for climate studies on decadal time scales. The horizontal resolution is 4° latitude by 5° longitude and is thus not eddy-resolving. Effects of bottom topography are neglected. In the vertical, the model resolves the oceanic mixed layer and the thermocline. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is coupled to the mixed layer. The model is forced at the surface with seasonally varying (a) observed wind stress, (b) heat fluxes, as defined by an atmospheric equilibrium temperature, and (c) Newtonian-type surface salt fluxes. The second layer is coupled to the underlying deep ocean through Newtonian-type diffusive heat and salt fluxes, convective overturning, and mass entrainment in the upwelling regions of the subpolar gyres. The overall global distributions of mixed layer temperature, salinity and thickness are favorably reproduced. Inherent limitations due to coarse horizontal resolution result in large mixed-layer temperature errors near continental boundaries and in weak current systems. Sea ice distributions agree well with observations except in the interiors of the Ross and Weddell Seas. A realistic time rate of change of heat storage is simulated. There is also realistic heat transport from low to high latitudes.