博尔塔拉河流域水资源承载力模糊综合评价

博尔塔拉河流域大规模的农业开发和不合理的水资源开发利用,使得流域内生态环境脆弱,导致了补给干流的水资源减少,使得干流(尤其是在下游)产生了一系列的生态环境问题。本文针对博尔塔拉河流域水资源的实际情况,依据博尔塔拉河流域供需状况等,选取人均水资源可利用量,人均供水量、水资源利用率、耕地灌溉率、供水模数、需水模数、生活用水定额、生态用水率等指标,应用模糊综合评价方法综合评价了流域内现状和不同年份的水资源承载力,并提出了提高水资源承载力的途径。     

四川省盆地区云水资源与开发

1引言中国拥有水资源28124亿方,在世界排名第六,但人均占有量只有2474方,为全球人均占有量10800方的23％,排名109位,可见我国是严重的贫水国。四川省水资源人均占有2800方,略高于全国平均水平,是世界人均占有量的26％。四川省水资源在国内属比较丰富的省,但分布不均,除川西北高原为丰水区外,盆周山区为径流利用区,还有大面积的缺水区（盆中～盆东北）和严重缺水区（酉昌、攀枝花）（1）受自然降水影响大,给农业带来很大风险,也制约了国民经济的发展和人民生活质量的提高。开发和利用淡水资源不仅是农业抗旱减灾的主题,而且也…     

做好灌溉预报 推动节水农业发展

干旱缺水是制约通辽市农业生产的主要问题,水资源短缺与浪费的矛盾日益突出,提高水资源利用率,应对气候变化,发展节水型农业已迫在眉睫。及时准确提供灌溉预报信息是实现节水灌溉的重要环节,也是拓宽气象服务领域的重要内容,对区域农业可持续发展有重要意义。通辽市气象局根据当地气候特点和农业生产的实际,利用内蒙古气象科研所研制的＂内蒙古半干旱区农田优化灌溉预测技术＂,从2005年开始陆续对通辽地区玉米田进行了灌溉信息预报的试验示范工作,取得一定的效果,现总结如下。     

内蒙古半干旱区水资源综合利用系统简介

半干旱区水资源综合利用服务系统是以提高农业水资源利用效率,保障农业可持续发展为目标,贯彻中国气象局开展研究型业务的精神,尽快使科研成果转化为生产力和业务能力,在已有农田优化灌溉预报模型和雨养农业区农田干旱监预测方法等科研成果的基础上,通过整合、完善构建了半干旱区水资源综合利用系统,形成既可对主要灌区进行灌溉预报,又可对旱作区进行土壤水分监测和干旱监测的综合服务系统。     

论持续农业与水资源利用

水资源紧张是我国面临的严重问题，河南更甚。由于地下水的超量开采，地下水位逐年下降，水资源失衡总是日趋严重。如此发展下去，必将危及农业和整个国民经济的持续发展。缓解这种紧张局的根本途径是在提高全民节水意识的基础上，发展节水农业，即在有灌溉条件的地方实行节水灌溉，提高水分利用效率，重点改进田间灌溉设施配套技术和实行优化灌溉，辅之推行各种有效的农业节水措施。在水资源短缺和没有灌溉条件的地方，要发展旱地农     

四川省盆地区云水资源与开发

1 引言 中国拥有水资源28124亿方,在世界排名第六,但人均占有量只有2474方,为全球人均占有量10800方的23%,排名109位,可见我国是严重的贫水国.四川省水资源人均占有2800方,略高于全国平均水平,是世界人均占有量的26%.四川省水资源在国内属比较丰富的省,但分布不均,除川西北高原为丰水区外,盆周山区为径流利用区,还有大面积的缺水区(盆中～盆东北)和严重缺水区(西昌、攀枝花)(1)受自然降水影响大,给农业带来很大风险,也制约了国民经济的发展和人民生活质量的提高.开发和利用淡水资源不仅是农业抗旱减灾的主题,而且也是国民经济发展中必须考虑的重要问题.下面就四川盆地区的云水状况,云与降水的关系作一分析,并提出开发建议.     

阿克苏棉区膜下滴灌农业气象服务对策初步研究

目前棉花膜下滴灌技术已在阿克苏得到应用,棉花膜下滴灌植棉比常规高密度植棉在灌溉方式上具有明显的优越性,灌水灵活,控制力强,增产潜力较大。由于棉花膜下灌溉技术改变了棉田的生态环境,面对这一新型的节水技术,需找准气象服务的切入点。研究表明,农业气象服务在膜下滴灌植棉和常规植棉中的应对措施具有较大的差异性。     

金衢旱地棉花水分供需特征及灌溉效益分析

从作物水分平衡出发,计算了旱地棉花需水量。对需水规律分析得出:需水关键期的花铃期正逢伏旱期,需水亏缺十分严重。为此设计了多种灌溉试验,从灌溉水的增产效用和灌水利用率两方面确定了适宜灌溉量和较有效的灌溉方式。     

气候变化对陕西淡水资源可持续利用的影响和对策调研报告

水是人类赖以生存和发展的不可替代的资源。水资源包括大气水、土壤水和地表水、地下水,其中大气降水是陆地上水资源的根本来源。陕西省大部分位于半干旱、半湿润地区,人均水资源占有量为１３００ｍ３,为全国人均的１／２,世界人均占有量的１／８,水资源非常紧缺,近...     

黄河流域农业水资源利用效率综合评估研究

为了评估黄河流域及其各省(区)农业水资源利用效率,根据专家意见与实际数据支撑构建农业水资源评估指标体系,采用熵权模型计算评估指标集中各指标的权重值,将各省(区)的评估指标通过权重加权,得到综合指数,对黄河流域及其各省(区)的综合农业水资源利用效率进行对比分析。结果表明,评估指标体系各指标的熵权计算值中,各指标的权重相差不大,表明评估指标集中各指标对综合指数的影响程度相当。黄河流域9省(区)的综合指数计算结果中,山西、山东、河南与陕西的综合农业水资源利用效率较高,甘肃、四川与内蒙古处于中等水平,而宁夏相较于其他几个省(区)明显低下。农业水资源利用效率低下的原因,与黄河调水量、农业基础设施情况及灌溉管理机制有关。黄河调水量的减少,使得国家分配给农业的调水量在不断减少;农业基础设施薄弱,直接导致农业用水浪费,灌溉水量增多;灌溉管理机制不完善,使得农业用水不合理,农业水资源利用效率不高。     

气候变化适应行动实施框架——宁夏农业案例实践

宁夏是我国生态脆弱区和贫困区之一,以宁夏为例开展农业适应行动实践具有一定的代表性和示范作用.根据气候变化适应行动实施框架,研究结果表明:宁夏未来气候干旱风险将增加,水资源短缺矛盾加剧,极端气候事件频率和强度加大.未来宁夏北部灌区农业应以发展节水灌溉和高效种植为主,中部以设施农业和牧业为主,南部以发展特色农业为主.气象部...     

Future cereal production in China: The interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios

Food production in China is a fundamental component of the national economy and driver of agricultural policy. Sustaining and increasing output to meet growing demand faces significant challenges including climate change, increasing population, agricultural land loss and competing demands for water. Recent warming in China is projected to accelerate by climate models with associated changes in precipitation and frequency of extreme events. How changes in cereal production and water availability due to climate change will interact with other socio-economic pressures is poorly understood. By linking crop and water simulation models and two scenarios of climate (derived from the Regional Climate Model PRECIS) and socio-economic change (downscaled from IPCC SRES A2 and B2) we demonstrate that by the 2040s the absolute effects of climate change are relatively modest. The interactive effects of other drivers are negative, leading to decreases in total production of ?18% (A2) and ?9% (B2). Outcomes are highly dependent on climate scenario, socio-economic development pathway and the effects of CO₂ fertilization on crop yields which may almost totally offset the decreases in production. We find that water availability plays a significant limiting role on future cereal production, due to the combined effects of higher crop water requirements (due to climate change) and increasing demand for non-agricultural use of water (due to socio-economic development). Without adaptation, per capita cereal production falls in all cases, by up to 40% of the current baseline.By simulating the effects of three adaptation scenarios we show that for these future scenarios China is able to maintain per capita cereal production, given reasonable assumptions about policies on land and water management and progress in agricultural technology. Our results are optimistic because PRECIS simulates much wetter conditions than a multi-model average, the CO₂ crop yield response function is highly uncertain and the effects of extreme events on crop growth and water availability are likely to be underestimated.     

A global comparison of carbon-water-food nexus based on dietary consumption

Exploring the environmental impact of dietary consumption has become increasingly important to understand the carbon-water-food nexus, vital to achieving UN sustainable development goals. However, the research on diet-based nexus assessment is still lacking. Here, we developed an Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output (EE-MRIO) model with compiling a global MRIO table based on the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 10 database, where we specifically constructed a water withdrawal account and matched it to each economy at the sectoral level. The regional heterogeneity and synergy of carbon-water nexus affected by dietary patterns in nine countries was explored. The results show that: (1) Dietary consumption is the main use of water withdrawal for each country; Japan, the US, South Korea, and India have a high per capita dietary water footprint. Mainly due to consumption of processed rice, Japan has the highest per capita value of 488 M³/year, accounting for 63.4% of the total water footprint. (2) The total dietary carbon footprints in China, India, and the US are high, which is mainly caused by the high consumption of animal products (including dairy) either due to the large population (China, India) or animal-based diet (the US). Americans have the highest per capita dietary carbon footprint, reaching 755.4 kg/year, 2.76 times that of the global average. (3) Generally, imported/foreign footprints account for a greater share in dietary water and carbon footprints of developed countries with an animal-based diet. (4) In the nexus analysis, the US, Japan, and South Korea are key-nexus countries, vegetables, fruit and nuts, tobacco and beverages, and other food products are selected as key-nexus sectors with relatively high dietary water and carbon footprint. Furthermore, dietary consumption choices lead to different environmental impacts. It is particularly important to find a sustainable dietary route adapted to each country considering that heterogeneity and synergism exist in key-nexus sectors to achieve the relevant Sustainable Development Goals.     

我国城镇化对二氧化碳排放的影响机理研究

本文首先从规模、结构和效率3个方面在理论上分析我国城镇化对二氧化碳排放的影响机理。并利用1978-2012年的数据,采用对数迪氏平均指数分解方法（LMDI）量化分析规模效应、结构效应和技术效应的影响程度。结果表明：城镇化导致的经济增长是人均二氧化碳排放增加的主要拉动因素;而城镇化过程中结构调整是人均二氧化碳排放的主要拉低因素;城镇化过程中技术效应拉低了人均二氧化碳的排放,但与结构效应相比影响效果较小。研究认为：城镇化带来的结构变化的影响越来越重要,成为降低碳排放的最大因素,目前技术效应正在发挥作用,但是作用有限,如果要实现低碳城镇化,需要提高能源使用效率来发挥技术效应的作用。     

Prospects for a saturation of humanity’s resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035

Material stocks in infrastructure, buildings and machinery shape current and future resource use and emissions. Analyses of specific countries and selected materials suggest that material stocks might saturate, which would be important for a more sustainable social metabolism. However, it is unclear to what extent the evidence holds for a wider range of stocks and flows, as well as for world regions or globally.We present an inflow-driven dynamic stock-flow model for 14 bulk materials, end-of-life outflows, recycling, and waste flows for nine world regions from 1900 to 2015, extended with trend scenarios until 2035. Material stocks are growing in all regions and show little signs of saturation yet. In 2015, China used half of global stock-building materials, overtook everyone in stock size around 2012 and grows its stock at ∼8%/year. The Industrialized regions, including the Former Soviet Union, are slowly expanding their high stock levels at ∼1%/year. Stocks in all other regions, inhabited by 60% of the world population, grow at ∼3–5%/year. Inequalities in per capita stocks between regions are large. Trend scenarios suggest potential absolute or per capita stock saturations in some of the industrialized regions, while all other regions are expected to continue high stock growth.Accumulated stocks drive future end-of-life materials and substantial maintenance and replacement requirements. Growing material stocks hamper a potential stabilization or reduction of resource use. Low stock levels in most world regions suggest a crucial window of opportunity for avoiding resource-intensive stock development. In the industrialized regions and especially China, stabilising and reducing resource use requires halting net stock expansion and transforming existing stocks. More materials- and energy-efficient and long-lived stocks which deliver high quality services, and improved reuse, repair and recycling of increasing end-of-life materials to close loops and actually replace virgin resources, are crucial for a more sustainable social metabolism.     

Inclusive wealth index measuring sustainable development potentials for Chinese cities

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are the blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future. To achieve the goal, tracking progress — not just on a national level, but locally — is crucial to guide future policy development. While sustainability assessment at the national evel is quite advanced in China, similar assessments focusing at the regional or even at the city-level are currently lacking. Here, we advanced the Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) framework, which is firstly proposed by the United Nations Development Programme, through taking water wealth into account and adjusting the variable based on data availability. Then we investigate the sustainability performance of 210 cities in China in 2016 via the advanced version of the IWI framework. The analysis makes a holistic assessment based on produced, human, and natural capital, as well as considering heterogeneities in economy, social, and environmental conditions across these cities. We find that cities clustered in the eastern parts of China are characterized by high levels of sustainability performance and increasing capacities for sustainability, largely driven by their high quality and quantity of human capital. In comparison, the western cities have a large amount of low-skilled human capital and low levels of produced capital, which determines their low sustainability performance. Cities clustered in the north are heavily dependent on low value-added products and resource-intensive industries. Furthermore, we make projections of the IWI and its three components for different cities from 2020 to 2030, referring to the index systems presented in city planning which describe the development speed of income, education, fixed asset investment, forests etc. In the future, cities in central and western clusters show considerable potential for increasing IWI per capita, whereas cities with a dominant energy sector in the north would face declining capacity for sustainability due to the exhaustion of fossil fuels and raw materials. By fully taking account of and adapting to local circumstances, we tailor-design pathways for different types of cities to grow their sustainability potentials. Those resources-dependent cities in the north could avoid the impending decline by gradually developing their human and produced capital while abandoning their resource dependency. Our study contributes to city-level sustainable development in China through the lens of per capita IWI and the potential future dynamics of changing compositions in their capital.     

Allocating planetary boundaries to large economies: Distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness

The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework proposes global quantitative precautionary limits for human perturbation of nine critical Earth system processes. Together they define a global safe operating space for human development. Translating the global limits to the national level increases their policy relevance. Such translation essentially divides up the global safe operating space. What is considered fair distribution is a political decision and there is no globally agreed principle that can be applied. Here, we analyse the distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness. We scale the global limits of selected PBs to resource budgets for the EU, US, China and India, using three allocation approaches from the climate change literature. Furthermore, we compare the allocated budgets to 2010 environmental footprints of the four economies, to assess their performance with respect to the selected PBs. The allocation approaches are based on (1) current shares of global environmental pressure (‘grandfathering’); (2) ‘equal per capita’ shares, and (3) ‘ability to pay’ to reduce environmental pressure. The results show that the four economies are not living within the global safe operating space. Their 2010 environmental footprints are larger than the allocated budgets for all approaches and parameterisations analysed for the PBs for climate change and biogeochemical flows, and, except for India, also for the PB for biosphere integrity. Grandfathering was found to be most favourable for the EU and US for all PBs, and ability to pay as least favourable. For climate change and biogeochemical flows, ability to pay even resulted in negative resource budgets for the two economies. In contrast, for China and India, equal per capita allocation and ability to pay were most favourable. Results were sensitive to the parameterisation. Accounting for future population growth in the equal per capita approach benefits India, with lower budgets for the EU, US and China, while accounting for future economic growth in ability to pay benefits the EU and US, with lower budgets for China and India. Our results underline the need for all four economies to act, while hinting at diverging preferences for specific allocation approaches. The methodology and results may help countries to define policy targets in line with global ambitions, such as those defined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), accounting for differences in countries’ circumstances and capacities. Further attention is required for PB-specific allocation approaches and integration of biophysical and socioeconomic considerations in the allocation.     

温室气体排放空间使用比率及计算实例

度量不同参与者已使用的温室气体排放空间是温室气体排放核算的重要问题。从人际公平视角,基于人年均温室气体排放,本文提出了温室气体排放空间使用比率及其计算公式,利用142 个国家1950-2013 年温室气体排放和人口数据进行了具体计算,并根据计算结果对这些国家进行了排序和分类。计算结果表明,美国温室气体排放空间使用比率在3.33以上,占用的排放空间远高于142 个国家的平均水平;中国处于0.50~0.70,明显低于平均水平;印度在0.30 以下,远低于平均水平。本研究表明,温室气体排放空间使用比率可支持决策者和社会各方了解参与者使用温室气体排放空间的程度,也有助于提高排放信息的透明度。     

我国春玉米水分供需状况分析

论述了作物需水量的概念及其计算方法，利用最新的气候和作物资料，计算了我国春玉米的作物需水量，分析其时空分布特征，并利用水发订正系来评价春玉米需水量的满足程度。计算分析结果表明，气候条件对我国在玉米生产是有利的，但在播种期、出苗期及拔节期（4－6月份），存在明显的水亏缺现象，这一时期应采取相应的栽培技术及节水灌溉、人工增雨等措施来缓解旱情。     

气候变化对河南省灌溉小麦的影响及对策初探

灌溉是河南省冬小麦最重要的种植管理模式。在DSSAT-CERES小麦模型参数调试和区域适用性验证的基础上,利用区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来气候情景资料,量化分析了2021—2050年河南省灌溉条件下冬小麦产量的可能变化,结果表明:若不采取其他措施,未来A2,B2两种温室气体排放情景下,河南省冬小麦产量平均减少5%左右,A2情景减产率略高于B2;随着产量降低,产量波动区间略有缩小,但25%~75%的稳产区间也相应缩小,且B2情景下更容易出现极端低产的年份;冬小麦水分利用效率相应降低。采取适当应对措施,如延迟播种期、减小种植密度等有利于提高产量或缓解减产趋势。