编者按

随着青海气象业务现代化的建设和发展，大量的现代化气象装备逐步投入业务运行，这对气象技术装备保障工作提出了新的更高的要求，因此，如何使装备保障工作适应气象现代化建设和业务运行需求，进一步提高技术装备保障的能力，是气象基本业务工作的重点。     

坚持科学发展观全面提升气象现代化水平

1996年，江泽民同志视察中国气象局时指出，气象事业发展水平的高低，是一个国家现代化水平的重要标志之一，气象工作要始终抓住现代化建设这个中心不放，坚持为国民经济各行各业服务。党的十六届三中全会提出了坚持以人为本，树立全面、协调、可持续的发展观。2004年中国气象局提出了实施“三大战略”工作目标。近年来，烟台市气象局始终把发展做为第一要务，坚定不移的推进气象现代化建设，实现了烟台气象事业的飞跃发展。     

深化业务技术体制改革 全面推进气象技术保障体系快速健康发展的研究

随着气象现代化建设的快速发展，原有的气象技术装备保障体系难以适应新形势、新业务的问题日益突出，突出表现在保障体系建设滞后、保障业务能力不高、研发与能力储备不足、保障管理手段落后等问题，特别是随着气象技术装备自动化程度越来越高，技术装备保障队伍越来越不适应现代化气象观测系统要求。因此要加强建设国家级牵头，省级为主体的技术保障体系，区域中心要发挥区域协调作用，发挥地市一级的作用。在建设中要明确技术保障管理层面与技术保障业务层面的关系；针对不同气象设备和技术要求，采取不同的分层保障方式；加强信息化建设，提高技术保障的科技含量；以我为主开展气象技术装备保障；技术保障要体现超前性与全程性；技术指导和维护维修要体现分级性，高度重视气象装备日常维护工作。同时在思想观念、业务分工、研究型业务等方面开展进一步的思考。     

制定舟山气象业务现代化建设规划的思路

本文在对近几年舟山气象业务现代化建设成果及其所产生的经济社会效益进行总结的基础上，全面分析了制约舟山气象事业发展的主要因素及对气象探测现代化的迫切需求，提出了舟山气象业务现代化建设规划和总体目标。本规划思路，将为拓展海洋气象服务领域，实现舟山气象业务现代化提供指导，满足舟山经济社会发展对气象服务的需求。     

贵州省气象部门1996年“双文明”建设结硕果

贵州省气象部门在邓小平建设有中国特色社会主义理论指导下，坚待“两手抓、两手都要硬”的方针，在推进以气象事业结构调整为重点的改革和现代化建设的同时，精神文明建设取得了积极的进展和明显的效果，气象现代化建设和气象汛期服务也得到发展和加强。1996年度我省气象部门在精神文明和气象汛期服务中涌现出一批先进集体和先进个人。他们分别受到中国气象局、国家人事部的联合表彰，国家防汛指挥总部、中国气象局防汛指挥部、贵州省气象局的表彰。2月24日，在全省气象局长会议开幕式上，省委书记刘方仁、副省长袁荣贵作了重要讲话，并对…     

近期我省气象现代化建设概述

近期我省气象现代化建设概述杜顺义，王晓录（山西省气象局０３０００２）进入９０年代，我省气象现代化建设在省局党组和局领导直接领导，在全省上下受到高度重视，并得到各个部门和单位的全力支持。尤其在近几年，我省气象现代化建设，取得了较高速度的发展，现代化水平...     

新时期推进气象现代化的若干思考

气象工作的根本宗旨和核心任务就是为全社会提供高质量的公共服务产品和公共气象服务。提高公共气象服务能力的根本举措就是要大力推进气象现代化建设。坚定不移地推进气象现代化,提升公共气象服务能力是中国特色气象事业发展的基本经验,也是更好地服务浙江经济社会发展的根本任务。     

加强科学管理发挥气象现代化建设的总体效益

加强科学管理发挥气象现代化建设的总体效益山东省气象局副局长刘可先十余年来，我省气象现代化建设取得了很大的成绩，但也有不少教训和问题，影响了现代化建设总体效益的发挥。在现代化建设的管理上，存在着管理水平不高，管理人才缺乏，管理法规体系不健全，标准化、规...     

内蒙古气象科研工作组织管理对策探讨

内蒙古自治区的气象科技工作多年来立足于贯彻“科学技术是第一生产力,科研要面向现代化建设、面向地方经济建设“的方针,围绕气象业务现代化建设中的关键技术及自治区国民经济建设中防灾减灾气象服务热门技术等重点问题,开展科学研究和技术开发.经过改革开放以来二十多年的努力,取得了丰硕的科研成果,培养造就了一批科技人才,促进了自治区气象事业的科技进步和发展.……     

中心台业务建设的现状和问题

中心台业务建设的现状和问题牛志敏（兰州中心气象台７３００２０）编者按根据中国气象局《气象事业发展十年规划》和《气象现代化建设发展纲要》，全省气象部门在“八五”期间进行了省地级实时预报业务系统建设。经过几年的努力，各地气象现代化建设提高了天气预报准确率...     

几种自动化软件应用于气象资料共享技术的探讨

针对目前气象业务和服务现代化、自动化的需要,推荐作者在实际业务中使用过的三款自动化软件：Auto Mate 5．0．4．1、Cute FTP Pro 3．0及卧天同步王Syn Copy V1．84。文中介绍了它们的功能特点、使用技术和注意事项,通过在嘉兴市气象局的应用表明,这些软件的合理、恰当使用在气象自动化和现代化建设的实际工作中起到了事半功倍的效果。     

Overcoming cross-scale challenges to climate change adaptation for local government: a focus on Australia

This paper aims to identify key cross-scale challenges to planned adaptation within the context of local government in Australia, and suggest enabling actions to overcome such challenges. Many of the impacts of climate change and variability have or will be experienced at the local level. Local governments are embedded in a larger governance context that has the potential to limit the effectiveness of planned adaptation initiatives on the ground. This study argues that research on constraints and barriers to adaptation must place greater attention to understanding the broader multi-governance system and cross-scale constraints that shape adaptation at the local government scale. The study identified seven key enabling actions for overcoming cross-scale challenges faced by local governments in Australia when undertaking climate change adaptation planning and implementation. A central conclusion of this study is that a cooperative and collaborative approach is needed where joint recognition of the scale of the issue and its inherent cross-scale complexities are realised. Many of the barriers or constraints to adaptation planning are interlinked, requiring a whole government approach to adaptation planning. The research suggests a stronger role at the state and national level is required for adaptation to be facilitated and supported at the local level.     

Ecosystem management,decentralization, and public opinion

In recent years there has been a movement by administrators and policymakers across the country to reorganize and reinvent government to improve program efficiencies, to harness resources outside government in the service of public policy goals, and to better facilitate the input of affected interests and the general public. Central to this effort are innovative, decentralized institutional arrangements which delegate significant authority either to private citizens, program managers within existing bureaucracy, or market-based mechanisms. Ecosystem- and watershed-based management, which seek to both prevent pollution and sustain development, are in the vanguard of this movement. This paper examines this trend toward decentralizing environmental policy and the use of ecosystem management from the perspective of the public. Planning and implementation of devolved environmental policy will require the support of local stakeholders and citizens. Using data from a national public opinion survey conducted during the summer of 1998, the paper examines factors associated with public acceptability of ecosystem management and the preferred level of government and citizen participation that should be involved in the implementation of such management strategies.     

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity in forestry in northern Europe: a Swedish case study

Climate change is likely to present new and substantially unpredictable challenges to human societies. The prospect is of particular concern at the local and regional levels, since vulnerability and adaptive capacity are location-specific and many decisions regarding climate-induced risks are made at those levels. In this light, one is compelled to survey stakeholders’ understandings of their situation and perceived problems. Assessments should also include the context of other ongoing changes, such as globalisation, that will impact communities and exacerbate their vulnerabilities. This paper presents an assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the forestry sector in the Pite River basin in northern Sweden. The study was carried out using a multi-method design encompassing literature surveys, interviews with stakeholders, and stakeholder meetings. The paper concludes that while climate change will have an impact on the region, its effect will be superseded by that of broader socio-economic changes. The results illustrate the need to understand local and regional perceptions of adaptation in formulating appropriate policy measures.     

雷达资料在孤立单体雷电预警中的初步应用

利用多普勒雷达资料, 结合探空、闪电资料对2005年夏季北京地区的20个单体过程进行综合分析, 结果表明:40 dBz是比较适合该地区雷电预警的一个雷达回波特征参量; 在此基础之上, 将0 ℃层结高度作为基础特征高度, 并结合-10 ℃层结高度和强回波所占比例对孤立单体的雷电发生进行综合预警是一种较为接近实际应用的方法。根据以上分析, 该文针对孤立单体能否发生闪电、以及闪电发生的起始时间给出了一个初步的预报方法, 并利用22个孤立单体进行了检验。检验结果证明:该方法在对单体是否会发展为雷暴单体, 以及雷暴单体中初次闪电发生时段的预报方面效果较好。同时还发现, 雷暴单体中从25 dBz回波出现到单体的35 dBz回波厚度变化率达到极值的时间差, 与雷暴中最早的云闪与最早的地闪之间的时间差, 两者存在一定的线性关系。这为进一步预测地闪的发生提供了一个参考依据。     

北京地区夏季边界层急流的基本特征及形成机理研究

首先指出了北京地区夏季边界层急流的基本特征, 即北京地区边界层急流一般出现在白天高温背景下或发生局地暴雨的夜间, 强度存在明显的日变化, 垂直分布具有明显的"鼻状"结构特征, 急流核高度一般为600～900 m.从中尺度扰动方程出发, 并通过天气过程演变实例, 研究了地形热力作用、局地强降水在边界层急流形成过程中的作用, 指出: (1)夏季高温背景下, 平原与山区之间温度梯度方向、强度的变化, 是造成低空风垂直切变加速或减速, 即边界层急流形成或消失的直接原因, 因此这种边界层急流的高度一般要低于山体的高度.(2)局地暴雨与边界层急流之间存在明显的正反馈现象: 由于局地暴雨同时改变了对流层中层和近地面层气温的水平分布, 这种热力强迫作用造成了边界层气流加速; 反过来, 边界层气流的加速又加强了急流前方的风速辐合--如果急流方向水平垂直于山坡, 这种迎风坡上的辐合将更强, 造成局地降水强度进一步增强.     

Prospects for steam coal exporters in the era of climate policies: a case study of Colombia

Continued global action on climate change has major consequences for fossil fuel markets, especially for coal as the most carbon-intensive fuel. This article summarizes current market developments in the most important coal-producing and coal-consuming countries, resulting in a critical qualitative assessment of prospects for future coal exports. Colombia, as the world’s fourth largest exporter, is strongly affected by these global trends, with more than 90% of its production being exported. Market analysis finds Colombia in a strong competitive position, owing to its low production costs and high coal quality. Nevertheless, market trends and enhanced climate policies suggest a gloomy outlook for future exports. Increasing competition on the Atlantic as well as Pacific market will keep coal prices low and continue pressure on mining companies. Increasing numbers of filed bankruptcies and lay-offs might be just the beginning of a carbon bubble devaluing fossil fuel investments and leaving them stranded. Colombia largely supplies European and Mediterranean consumers but also delivers some quantities to the US Gulf Coast, and to Central and South America. Future coal demand in most of these countries will continue to decline in the next decades. Newly constructed power plants in emerging economies (India, China) are unlikely to compensate for this downturn owing to increasing domestic supply and decreasing demand. Therefore, maintaining or even increasing mining volumes in Colombia should be re-evaluated, taking into account new economic realities as well as local externalities. Ignoring these risks could lead to additional stranded investments, aggravating the local resource curse and hampering sustainable economic development.

Key policy insights

• The climate policies of most of Colombia’s traditional trade partners target steam coal as the more emission-intensive fossil fuel, with many countries implementing or considering a coal phase-out.

• Coal exporters should re-evaluate their operations and new investments taking into account this new policy environment.

• To prevent a race to the bottom among coal producers that would favour weak regulation, climate policy makers should also consider the local social and external costs of coal mining, including on health and the local environment.

     

Measurable,reportable and verifiable: the keys to mitigation in the Copenhagen deal

The climate negotiations up to Copenhagen will need to elaborate on measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) mitigation commitments and actions as part of the future of the climate regime. The conceptual, political, scientific, financial and institutional principles for MRV are explored for (1) mitigation commitments in developed countries, (2) mitigation actions in developing countries, supported by (3) means of implementation. For developed countries, the procedures in Articles 5, 7, 8 and 18 of the Kyoto Protocol will be critical in order to ensure comparability of commitments, both in effort and compliance. Outcomes should be reportable and verifiable through Annex I national communications and in-depth review. Existing procedures could be enhanced and need to apply across Protocol and Convention. MRV mitigation actions by developing countries should result in measurable deviations below baseline. Inventories will be important to measure, and enhanced national communications for reporting. The challenge will be to make mitigation actions verifiable, and options include verification by domestic institutions working to internationally agreed guidelines. A critical distinction is to be made between unilateral mitigation actions and those with international support. MRV applies to the provision of the means of implementation, including technology and finance. Investment in technology can be measured, so that institutional arrangements for technology and finance should be aligned. Verification of funds raised at international level would be simpler than raising funds nationally.     

The heat and water budgets of a beaver pond

Small water bodies create their own characteristic local meteorological environments. The heat and water budgets will generally vary with surface area and water depth. If a small pond gradually becomes covered by vegetation, its meteorological conditions will change. On occasion, a vegetated area may change into a pond, complete with vegetation established in the water and extending above the surface. Such are beaver ponds and other flooded areas.

The paper discusses the main features of the development of beaver ponds and their heat and water budgets at different stages. The energy budget programme used was previously developed by the authors, but it has been modified to account for the different phases of the pond development. The effects of the various physical changes are evaluated by comparing the individual heat and water budget terms for different stages between an open lake surface and a forest cover.

The local heat budget will only be affected on a small scale by the establishment of a beaver pond, but the influence on the water budget has far‐reaching consequences.     

2009年7月辽宁3次局地短时暴雨过程对比分析

利用常规观测资料、自动气象站降水资料和NCEP1°×1°资料,对2009年7月辽宁省3次局地短时暴雨的500 hPa位势高度场、垂直速度场、θse场和水汽通量场进行对比分析。结果表明：3次局地暴雨过程中,辽宁西部和北部的暴雨落区与上升速度中心对应,而辽宁东南部暴雨落区位于上升区边缘;露点锋、中α尺度低压和暖式切变线对三次短时暴雨过程起到触发作用;当T639降水产品预报降水时段内有大范围的小雨天气,说明将有弱的天气尺度强迫出现,此时应重点分析水汽辐合、高能舌和上升速度大值中心叠加的区域;如果该区域存在中尺度系统触发机制,则该区域可能是局地暴雨的落区。