中国东部季风区植被物候季节变化对气候响应的大尺度特征:多年平均结果

利用1982～1993年NOAA/NASA Pathfinder AVHRR陆地数据集中的规一化植被指数(NDVI)数据集,对中国东部植被季节生长的阶段性进行了划分.在此基础上,对植被季节生长对气候响应的多年平均状况进行了分析,发现在多年平均意义上,(1)中国东部植被生长在各生长阶段都同步响应于温度的季节变化;(2)在多数时段,中国东部植被生长与降水的季节变化存在显著相关关系,植被生长滞后于降水变化,滞后时间为20～30天.通过本文的研究,在中国东部季风区,有关植被季节生长对气候响应大尺度特征的多年平均状况的定性认识得到定量化的表达,为改进陆面过程描述、提高对中国东部区域气候的长期模拟能力提供了一定的依据.     

Variations in cereal crop phenology in Spain over the last twenty-six years (1986–2012)

Over recent years, the Iberian Peninsula has witnessed an increase both in temperature and in rainfall intensity, especially in the Mediterranean climate area. Plant phenology is modulated by climate, and closely governed by water availability and air temperature. Over the period 1986–2012, the effects of climate change on phenology were analyzed in five crops at 26 sites growing in Spain (southern Europe): oats, wheat, rye, barley and maize. The phenophases studied were: sowing date, emergence, flag leaf sheath swollen, flowering, seed ripening and harvest. Trends in phenological response over time were detected using linear regression. Trends in air temperature and rainfall over the period prior to each phenophase were also charted. Correlations between phenological features, biogeographical area and weather trends were examined using a Generalized Lineal Mixed Model approach. A generalized advance in most winter-cereal phenophases was observed, mainly during the spring. Trend patterns differed between species and phenophases. The most noticeable advance in spring phenology was recorded for wheat and oats, the “Flag leaf sheath swollen” and “Flowering date” phenophases being brought forward by around 3 days/year and 1 day/year, respectively. Temperature changes during the period prior to phenophase onset were identified as the cause of these phenological trends. Climate changes are clearly prompting variations in cereal crop phenology; their consequences could be even more marked if climate change persists into the next century. Changes in phenology could in turn impact crop yield; fortunately, human intervention in crop systems is likely to minimize the negative impact.     

Interdisciplinary approaches: towards new statistical methods for phenological studies

The importance of global environmental questions has significantly advanced the impact of climate change phenology. Whilst spatial applications continue to be a core application of phenology; in recent years the temporal dimension has also been revisited, with studies showing that temporal changes, either with a natural or an anthropogenic origin, have significantly altered phenological rhythms and seasonal development—changes attributed now to an anthropogenically induced temperature increase. This paper explores and introduces recent and newly developing analytic methods in phenology; with a view to increasing an interdisciplinary perspective and dialogue. Of particular focus is how we can and best deal with nonlinearity of phenological change in time and with multiple location studies; rigorously model the inherent multivariate time series structures in climate-phenology data; further Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods, detect multiple change-points; map seasonality calendars; model de-synchronisation of species globally; invoke old fashioned, yet rarely used circular statistical methods; adapt new transitional state modelling of phenophases with respect to climate and progress a unified paradigm for meta analytic studies in phenology. The provision of uncertainty analysis is also still much needed in climate-related phenological research. Reaching consensus on design, method of data collection and comparable analytic methods is integral to advancing the generalisability of phenological results; as is a consensus on inclusion criterion for studies selected for phenological meta-analytic studies. A coherent nomenclature is critically required, but it is currently lacking in many areas of phenology.     

Inter-Annual Variability and Decadal Trends in Alpine Spring Phenology: A Multivariate Analysis Approach

Plant phenological observations are of increasing value as indicators of climate change and variability. We developed a robust multispecies estimate for Swiss Alpine spring phenology for the period 1965–2002 by applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on a combination of 15 spring phases. The impact of climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation on the phenological development was investigated using a multivariate statistical model. This multispecies estimate proved to be a good approach to assess the pattern of spring appearance during the last 40 years. It revealed an earlier onset of spring in recent years, mainly since 1988 when a clear shift in spring appearance occurred. The mean overall trend of 1.5 days per decade was clearly driven by winter and spring temperatures whereas precipitation showed no significant influence. The dominant EOF patterns suggested a general climate forcing for the observed inter-annual variability independent of single plant phases. A more regional phenology signal was found in the second EOF mode, indicating slightly weaker phenological trends in southern Switzerland as well as in higher altitudes. Both, temperature and precipitation contributed to this pattern significantly. Analysis of single phases confirmed the pattern of the multispecies estimate. All species showed trends towards earlier appearance ranging from −1 to −2.8 days per decade and the appearance dates had a very high covariance with temperature.     

Relationship between olive flowering and latitude in two Mediterranean countries (Italy and Tunisia)

In phenological studies, the plant developments are analysed considering their relationships with seasonal meteorological conditions; moreover, the influences of geographical features on biological responses have to be also considered. Different studies analysed the influence of latitude on phenological phases to investigate the possible different magnitude of biological response. In our experience, this type of geographic evaluation was conducted considering one of the more important plant species of Mediterranean shrub, the olive (Olea europaea L.) in fifteen olive monitoring stations, four located in Tunisia and eleven in Italy, from the southern Zarzis area at 33° to the northern Perugia area at 43° of latitude. The olive flowering phenomenon was studied, utilising an aerobiological monitoring method through appropriate pollen traps located inside olive groves from 1999 to 2008. The olive monitored pollen grains were recognised and evaluated to obtain daily pollen concentrations to define the flowering dates in the different study areas. The biometeorological statistical analysis showed the 7°C threshold temperature and the single triangle method for growing degree days (GDD) yearly computing as the better ones in comparison to others. Moreover, the regression analysis between the dates of full flowering and the GDD amounts at the different monitoring latitudes permitted us to evidence the biological response of olive species in geographic regions with different climate patterns. The specific biological response at different latitude was investigated, the slope results, as flowering days per heat amounts, evidenced that olive species behaviours are very constant in consequence to similar meteorological conditions independently to latitude variations. Averagely, the relationships between plant’s phenology, temperature trends and geographical features are very close, even if the yearly mesoscale meteorological variations force to consider, year by year, phenological advances or delays as local events.     

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Plant/Herbivore Interactions in Moist Tropical Forests

The interactions between plants and herbivores are key determinants of community structure world wide. Their role is particularly important in lowland tropical rain forests where rates of herbivory are higher, plants are better defended chemically and physically, and herbivores have specialized diets. In contrast to the temperate zone, most of the herbivory in the tropics occurs on ephemeral young leaves (>70%), which requires herbivores to have finely tuned host-finding abilities. As a consequence of these tight ecological and evolutionary linkages, the interplay between plants and herbivores in the tropics may be more susceptible to perturbations of climate change.Increases in global temperature, atmospheric CO2, and the length of the dry season are all likely to have ramifications for plant/herbivore interactions in the tropics. Here I extrapolate from our current and incomplete understanding of the mechanisms regulating plant/herbivore interactions and present a scenario for possible trends under a changing climate. Although elevated CO2 tends to enhance plant growth rates, the larger effects of increased drought stress will probably result in lower growth. In atmospheres experimentally enriched in CO2, the nutritional quality of leaves declines substantially due to a dilution of nitrogen by 10-30%. This response is buffered in plant species associated with nitrogen fixers. Elevated CO2 should also cause a slight decrease in nitrogen-based defenses (e.g., alkaloids) and a slight increase in carbon-based defenses (e.g., tannins). The most dramatic and robust predicted effect of climate change is on rates of herbivory. Lower foliar nitrogen due to CO2 fertilization of plants causes an increase in consumption per herbivore by as much as 40%, and unusually severe drought appears to cause herbivore populations to explode. In areas where elevated CO2 is combined with drying, rates of herbivory may rise 2-4 fold. The frequency of insect outbreaks is also expected to increase. Higher herbivory should further reduce plant growth rates, perhaps favoring plant species that are well-defended or fix nitrogen. The predicted increase in the number of herbivores is primarily due to relaxed pressure from predators and parasitoids. Elevated temperatures may increase herbivore developmental times, affording them partial escape from discovery by natural enemies, and drought appears to decimate parasitoid populations. The expected decline in parasitoid numbers may be due to direct effects of dry season drought or to the relative scarcity of herbivores during that period. As a consequence, the relative abundance of species will change, and overall biodiversity should decline.     

Is adjustment of breeding phenology keeping pace with the need for change? Linking observed response in woodland birds to changes in temperature and selection pressure

Despite the recent plethora of studies investigating biotic implications of climate change, most research has been undertaken without the need for change being quantified. Failure to link observed responses to selection pressure is a fundamental omission because whether change is appropriate cannot then be determined. We use almost 7,000 records to analyse long-term (1974–2004) changes in breeding phenology for six co-occurring woodland birds at a site with significantly increasing spring temperatures. We link observed change to changes in selection for early laying (calculated using differential breeding success as the season progresses) to determine whether change is: (1) necessary, (2) appropriate, and (3) sufficient. Three (resident) species—blue tit, great tit, and nuthatch—started clutches significantly earlier over time without selection for early laying becoming stronger over the same period. This suggests that observed advancements are appropriate, and sufficient, to track climate change. For another species—coal tit—there was no change in lay date, and although there was always selection to lay early, selection intensity did not change over time. For this, the earliest-laying species, bet-hedging to prevent maladaptation (laying too early) or stabilising selection may be acting to maintain phenological inertia, even when phenological change could be adaptive. For the final two (migratory) species—pied flycatcher and redstart—there was no temporal change in lay date, despite selection for early laying becoming significantly stronger over time. This study indicates that some species are tracking climate change successfully while ecologically-similar species, at the same study site, are failing to do so.     

中国东部季风区植被物候季节变化对气候响应的大尺度特征：年际比较

利用1982～1993年NOAA/NASA PathfinderAVHRR陆地数据集中的NDVI数据集,在中国东部植被生长的不同阶段(全年、植被生长季、植被生长季的增长阶段和衰退阶段),对植被季节生长对气候响应的年际变化进行了分析,发现：(1)无论在多年平均意义上还是逐年来看,中国东部季风区植被季节性生长状况对温度的响应在各个生长阶段都是近于同步的,温度对于植被生长季节变化的驱动关系非常稳定;(2)逐年来看,植被季节性生长对降水的响应也是存在的,但相关关系和相关的滞后关系具有年际差异。通过定量化地分析中国东部植被季节生长对季风气候响应的年际变化,有助于对陆面过程模式中的有关部分进行改进,从而提高对中国东部区域年际气候变化的模拟能力。     

Global Climate Change and Tropical Forest Genetic Resources

Global climate change may have a serious impact on genetic resources in tropical forest trees. Genetic diversity plays a critical role in the survival of populations in rapidly changing environments. Furthermore, most tropical plant species are known to have unique ecological niches, and therefore changes in climate may directly affect the distribution of biomes, ecosystems, and constituent species. Climate change may also indirectly affect plant genetic resources through effects on phenology, breeding systems, and plant-pollinator and plant seed disperser interactions, and may reduce genetic diversity and reproductive output. As a consequence, population densities may be reduced leading to reduction in genetic diversity through genetic drift and inbreeding. Tropical forest plants may respond to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, adaptive evolution, migration to suitable site, or extinction. However, the potential to respond is limited by a rapid pace of change and the non-availability of alternate habitats due to past and present trends of deforestation. Thus climate change may result in extinction of many populations and species. Our ability to estimate the precise response of tropical forest ecosystems to climate change is limited by lack of long-term data on parameters that might be affected by climate change. Collection of correlative data from long-term monitoring of climate as well as population and community responses at selected sites offer the most cost-effective way to understand the effects of climate change on tropical tree populations. However, mitigation strategies need to be implemented immediately. Because many effects of climate change may be similar to the effects of habitat alteration and fragmentation, protected areas and buffer zones should be enlarged, with an emphasis on connectivity among conserved landscapes. Taxa that are likely to become extinct should be identified and protected through ex situ conservation programs.     

Phenology shift from 1989 to 2008 on the Tibetan Plateau: an analysis with a process-based soil physical model and remote sensing data

Phenology is critical to ecosystem carbon quantification, and yet has not been well modeled considering both aboveground and belowground environmental variables. This is especially true for alpine and pan-arctic regions where soil physical conditions play a significant role in determining the timing of phenology. Here we examine how the spatiotemporal pattern of satellite-derived phenology is related to soil physical conditions simulated with a soil physical model on the Tibetan Plateau for the period 1989–2008. Our results show that spatial patterns and temporal trends of phenology are parallel with the corresponding soil physical conditions for different study periods. On average, 1 °C increase in soil temperature advances the start of growing season (SOS) by 4.6 to 9.9 days among different vegetation types, and postpones the end of growing season (EOS) by 7.3 to 10.5 days. Soil wetting meditates such trends, especially in areas where warming effect is significant. Soil thermal thresholds for SOS and EOS, defined as the daily mean soil temperatures corresponding to the phenological metrics, are spatially clustered, and are closely correlated with mean seasonal temperatures in Spring and Autumn, respectively. This study highlights the importance and feasibility of incorporating spatially explicit soil temperature and moisture information, instead of air temperature and precipitation, into phenology models so as to improve carbon modeling. The method proposed and empirical relations established between phenology and soil physical conditions for Alpine ecosystems on the Tibetan plateau could also be applicable for other cold regions.     

气温对吐鲁番地区木本植物春季物候的影响

利用吐鲁番和鄯善1980-2004年气象资料以及同期春季物候资料,统计分析了吐鲁番地区气温和木本植物春季物候的变化趋势及其相关性;各物候间的相关关系以及不同时段气温变化对物候的影响。在此基础上探讨了未来气候变化对吐鲁番地区木本植物春季物候的可能影响。     

Climate warming and activity period extension in the Mediterranean snake Malpolon monspessulanus

Plants and animals are responding to climate warming with predictable changes in distribution and physiology. Ectothermic animals are dependent upon environmental temperature, and their seasonal activity patterns are constrained by temperature. Ectotherms (such as snakes) may alter their activity patterns in concordance with climatic change, and we tested this hypothesis in a Mediterranean region (SE Spain) with the Montpellier snake (Malpolon monspessulanus). Temperature showed an increasing trend of 0.07°C per year in the study area between 1983 and 2004, and activity period in this species increased in concert with annual mean temperature. These snakes had a wider dispersion in activity dates and the annual last record was delayed as years progressed, suggesting that the activity period for this snake has increased over time in response to climatic change. These results were not influenced by the elevation at which samples were taken, and annual variation in the number of snakes recorded, sex-ratio, or precipitation. Therefore, this study reports a definite phenological shift for a reptile in response to climatic change.     

气候增暖对广东省植物物候变化的影响

根据广东省气象观测资料和10个农业气象观测站的物候观测资料,分析了1982~2004年温度变化对广东省木本植物物候变化的影响,并建立了物候期差异与温度之间的关系模式,分析了当前气候增暖背景下物候期对温度变化的响应关系。结果表明:平均温度上升,木本植物春季物候期提前;平均温度下降,木本植物春季物候期推迟。物候期的提前与推迟对温度的上升与下降的响应是非线性的。在同等升降温幅度情况下,降温导致的物候期推迟幅度较升温导致的物候期提前幅度大。     

基于遥感数据的内蒙古草原灌丛物候变化研究

植被物候研究是全球气候变化研究的重要内容,但国际上有关干旱半干旱区灌丛物候变化的研究还很缺乏。为了探讨气候变化对内蒙古草原灌丛物候的影响,利用2000~2011年的MODIS EVI时间序列影像,采用动态阈值法得到6种灌丛12 a物候年际变化情况,结合样点附近气象站的气温和降水数据,分析了灌丛物候与气候变化的动态关系。结果表明：（1）内蒙古中西部草原灌丛返青期、枯黄期都呈现提前的趋势,生长季长度缩短;（2）春季均温升高和前一年秋冬降水增加可以提前灌丛返青期,是影响返青期的主要因素;（3）秋季降水减少和夏秋均温上升都利于枯黄期提前,夏季降水的作用则因灌丛种类不同而略有差异;（4）夏秋均温上升缩短了生长季长度,夏秋降水量、春季均温则多与生长季长度呈正相关。     

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999–2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981–2000 and 2081–2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9?days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34?days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.     

Indigenous Australians’ knowledge of weather and climate

Although the last 200 years of colonisation has brought radical changes in economic and governance structures for thousands of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living in remote areas of northern Australia, many of these Indigenous people still rely upon, and live closely connected to, their natural environment. Over millennia, living ‘on country’, many of these communities have developed a sophisticated appreciation of their local ecosystems and the climatic patterns associated with the changes in them. Some of this knowledge is recorded in their oral history passed down through generations, documented in seasonal weather calendars in local languages and, to a limited degree, transcribed and translated into English. This knowledge is still highly valued by these communities today, as it is used to direct hunting, fishing and planting as well as to inform many seasonally dependant cultural events. In recent years, local observations have been recognised by non-Indigenous scientists as a vital source of environmental data where few historic records exist. Similar to the way that phenological observations in the UK and US provide baseline information on past climates, this paper suggests that Indigenous observations of seasonal change have the potential to fill gaps in climate data for tropical northern Australia, and could also serve to inform culturally appropriate adaptation strategies. One method of recording recent direct and indirect climate and weather observations for the Torres Strait Islands is documented in this paper to demonstrate the currency of local observations of climate and its variability. The paper concludes that a comprehensive, participatory programme to record Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge of past climate patterns, and recent observations of change, would be timely and valuable for the communities themselves, as well as contributing to a greater understanding of regional climate change that would be useful for the wider Australian population.     

省级气象财务会计电算化思考

木本植物物候观测是整个物候观测的重要组成部分。通过对木本植物的物候观测记录与其它物候资料及农业气象观测资料进行对比,可以更好地预告农事活动,提高农业气象预报、情报的准确率,同时也为园林建设、农业气候专题分析及区域气候研究有较高的指导意义。     

Quantitative evaluation of the seasonal variations in climate model cloud regimes

An extended cloud-clustering method to assess the seasonal variation of clouds is applied to five CMIP5 models. The seasonal variation of the total cloud radiative effect (CRE) is dominated by variations in the relative frequency of occurrence of the different cloud regimes. Seasonal variations of the CRE within the individual regimes contribute much less. This is the case for both observations, models and model errors. The error in the seasonal variation of cloud regimes, and its breakdown into mean amplitude and time varying components, are quantified with a new metric. The seasonal variation of the CRE of the cloud regimes is relatively well simulated by the models in the tropics, but less well in the extra-tropics. The stratocumulus regime has the largest seasonal variation of shortwave CRE in the tropics, despite having a small magnitude in the climatological mean. Most of the models capture the temporal variation of the CRE reasonably well, with the main differences between models coming from the variation in amplitude. In the extra-tropics, most models fail to correctly represent both the amplitude and time variation of the CRE of congestus, frontal and stratocumulus regimes. The annual mean climatology of the CRE and its amplitude in the seasonal variation are both underestimated for the anvil regime in the tropics, the cirrus regime and the congestus regime in the extra-tropics. The models in this study that best capture the seasonal variation of the cloud regimes tend to have higher climate sensitivities.     

Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region

Climate parameters, especially temperature, sunlight, and precipitation, play a decisive role in growing and maturing processes. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between climate variability and variations in phenological events in viticulture. Long time series of daily meteorological observations are used to quantify these relations. The primary aim is to predict the date of phenological events by relationships between plant morphology and environmental conditions. Causal relationships between environment and internal activities of the vine (phytochemistry, cellular interactions, molecular and cell biology) are not our focus. The dates of the phenological events are important for planning treatments in the vineyards like pest management, for predicting the duration of the ripening phase and estimating the quality of the grapes and the vintage. The focus is layed on the region of the Upper Moselle, especially the Luxembourgian viticulture. First the regional climate and the phenological states of different vine varieties during the time period 1951?C2005 are analysed. Significant trends are detected in annual, spring and summer temperatures. Vine phenology is also found to have changed significantly; budburst date and flowering events occur earlier by about two weeks. In a second step, relationships between phenological events and climate parameters are used to develop a prediction model. The parameterisation used in this study is based on a linear multiple regression method with forward and backward steps. The predictors tested are mainly temperature means for different time periods or temperature derived indices. In addition precipitation and sunshine duration for different time periods are evaluated, but only the temperature based predictors showed sufficient skill. For the budburst event, the significant predictors are the accumulated degree days in March, the mean daily maximum temperature in April and the accumulated frost days from January to March. The flowering event is best predicted by the accumulated degree days in May and April, the mean daily maximum temperature in June, and the date of the budburst event. Depending on the vine variety and the phenological event, the model explains 80?C89% of the variance and has a correlation coefficient above 0.90 with the observations.