扛牢粮食安全责任 守牢生态环境底线

为保障粮食安全和生态安全,提升气象决策服务、专业气象服务能力,更好地做好下一步保障粮食安全气象服务工作,实施专业气象服务相关工作举措,由国家气候中心、黑龙江省气象科学研究所、黑龙江省气候中心组成联合调研组于8月4日-7日,分别赴伊春、铁力、丰林、绥化就生态和农业相关事宜进行调研。此行分别就气象保障生态安全、气象保障粮食安全、科技成果转化等问题进行了调研,联合调研组调研了中国气象局五营森林生态监测站、五营国家气候观象台等生态监测仪器运行状态、各地气象局服务工作,并在绥化进行了科技成果转化座谈,初步达成了科技合作意向。     

如何做好气象物资装备供应管理

气象事业的发展离不开先进的设备,做好气象物资的供应管理是保障气象发展的前提,是气象业务顺利开展的重要保障。加强气象物资的供应管理才能使各种物资最大限度的发挥作用,让各种物资达到最佳组合,节约资源,降低成本。本着节约、环保、高效的原则,依据《气象技术装备管理办法》,做好物资计划、采购、储备、配送等工作。本文主要简述基于节约、环保、高效原则,如何做好气象装备的储存、保管、供应各环节的工作。     

中国气象局领导郑国光高度重视于田地震救灾气象服务

2月12日,于田县发生7.3级地震后,中国气象局党组书记、局长郑国光,副局长沈晓农分别致电新疆气象局,询问气象部门职工安全及受灾情况,同时对和田地区气象职工和受地震影响的喀什等地气象职工表示亲切慰问,并对救灾气象服务做出指导。郑国光局长要求密切监视天气变化,加强气象预报预警,做好设备维护及业务运行保障,为救灾工作及后期灾后恢复提供有针对性的气象保障服务。     

做好环湖赛决策气象服务的思考

环青海湖国际公路自行车赛(以下简称环湖赛)是目前世界海拔最高的国际公路自行车赛,也是亚洲级别最高的国际公路自行车赛事。做好环湖赛气象保障服务工作尤其是做好面向组委会、各级政府部门的决策气象服务工作,不仅有利于保障大赛顺利举行,同时,还将大力提升气象服务的整体综合效益、提高气象服务的社会影响力。本文通过主要分析第十三届环湖赛决策气象服务得失,就做准、做实、做细环湖赛气象决策服务工作提出建议和思考。     

县级气象部门强化气象探测环境保护的举措

做好气象探测环境保护是保障气象观测资料具有代表性、准确性、比较性和连续性的唯一措施,也是有效提升气象防灾减灾能力的关键所在。气象法明确规定:国家依法保护气象探测环境,任何组织和个人都有保护气象探测环境的义务。县级气象部门作为部门基层的气象主管机构,理应履行好气象法赋予的职责,按照法律和法规划定的责任和义务做好气象探测环境的保护工作。现以贵德国家基本站搬迁为启示,对县级气象部门在保护气象探测环境过程中存在的问题进行梳理,提出了县级气象部门强化气象探测环境保护的举措。     

做好重大活动气象保障服务的思考

立足内蒙古自治区成立70周年庆祝活动气象保障服务成功案例,总结做好重大活动气象保障服务的做法和经验,分析存在问题并提出改进措施,以期为今后做好重大活动气象保障服务提供参考。     

关于气象后勤工作创新与实践的思考

做好新形势下的气象后勤工作,坚持紧贴气象事业发展,用气象业务技术体制改革的理念,统领后勤改革和发展;坚持以改革促发展,以创新求突破,通过改革解决发展中出现的困难和问题;坚持以服务保障为生命线,积极主动做好服务保障工作;坚持以人为本,以实实在在的行动取信于民;坚持围绕中心任务开展党建和党风廉政建设,保证气象后勤实现又好又快发展。时刻不忘服务宗旨,为气象事业保驾护航。     

上海吴淞口国际邮轮港气象服务分析

上海吴淞口国际邮轮港是亚太地区邮轮枢纽港,是上海国际航运中心建设的重要组成部分。宝山区气象局围绕吴淞口国际邮轮港建设和运营需求开展了邮轮气象服务工作,在此工作的基础上评估邮轮气象服务现状,分析邮轮气象需求,对进一步深入做好邮轮气象服务保障工作进行初步的探索。     

现代气象装备技术保障新的思考

本文根据现代气象设备的新技术及其特点，给技术保障工作带来新的变化，提出了做好技术保障工作的新思路、新方法和新措施。     

加强海洋气象综合保障工程能力建设的分析与建议

紧紧围绕实现国家提出的"建设海洋强国"和"南海岛礁建设积极推进"发展战略目标,做好"一带一路"海洋气象保障,全面提升海洋气象保障经济社会发展的能力,分析了实施海洋气象综合保障工程建设的历史机遇与挑战,并进一步分析了海洋气象综合保障工程建设发展现状与不足,从而提出加强提升海洋气象综合保障工程能力建设的迫切性和必要性,并提出了相应的对策和建议。本研究为沿海省进一步提出相应的建设任务提供参考,为推进智慧海洋气象工程建设、应对气候变化、推进中国气象现代化事业实现更大发展提供依据。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.