欧氏距离系数在农业气候相似性研究中的应用

本文根据地理纬度板为相近的中国河北省和美国密苏里州各13个有代表性的气象站点的30年(1951—1980年)气候资料,采用计算欧氏距离系数的方法,就5组指标(包括气候指标和农业气候指标)分析了两地区之间气候、农业气候、冬小麦气候和春玉米气候的异同及其相似区,并对欧氏距离系数反映农业气候相似程度的可靠性进行了探索,从而为以上两地区之间引进和驯化优良品种以及其它农业技术交流提供了农业气候依据,并对两地区之间各种作物的气候生产力、农业技术和各种农业问题(如作物生态、农业土壤、农业病虫害等)的比较性研究具有促进作用。     

单项作物农业气候区划方法——气候产量相似法

对于县级农业气候区划来说,因气象站点有限而造成气象资料缺乏,本来就是一个问题,对于要求更加细微的单项作物区划,资料问题就更加突出。为了克服气象资料不足所造成的困难,我们试图通过作物的“气侯产量”来作单项作物的农业气候区划,“气候产量”中包含着作物生育过程中的全部农业气象信息,即是气象信息的综合表现。而且产量资料的空间分布比气象资料密得多,在乡镇或公社都有比较系统资料可用。所以,用气候产量相似法作单项作物的农业气候区划是有可能的。以潍坊市冬小麦的市级区划为例,并用实际气象资料对其结果作了验证,从而肯定了这一方     

农业气候相似信息系统

在建立大型农业气候数据库的基础上，研制了“农业气候相似信息系统”，着重介绍该系统的总体设计，原理与功能特点，开发与应用前景等。该系统可迅速查询农业气候相似研究应用动态和世界各地的气候数据；任选指标组合进行农业气候相似计算、排序、可为动、植物引种、扩种提供驯化次序和适宜范围，也可为农业技术交流和研究提供农业气候依据。     

气象出版社新书简介

该文集由课题协作组编著,共收集了34篇论文,分为资源篇与应用篇两部分。资源篇通过统一布设在不同山区的89个气候站点的观测和野外考察,以及热量资源的小网格计算,分析和揭示了我国亚热带东部丘陵山区农业气候资源的分布和基本特征;对我国亚热带东部地区农业气候资源的水平     

中国葡萄气候区划探讨

根据葡萄的生物学特性及其对气候条件的要求,在全国范围内选取８３个站点,按照９个农业气候指标,利用模糊聚类的数学方法,将全国划分为６个不同的葡萄气候区,并就各区的气候特点和品种选择作出分区评述。     

1954—2007年云南农业气候变化研究

为弄清主要农业气候要素和农业气候年型变化规律和特征.基于多站点气候资料,对表征云南农业气候特点的17个初选气候因子,进行经验正交(EOF)分解提取主成分因子,再应用系统聚类法划分农业气候年型.结果得到7个相互独立的主成分因子和6种农业气候年型,可客观表述云南主要农业气候变化特征.1954年以来云南农业主要生长季气候变暖趋势明显;降水量和日照时数比气温年际波动大,日照变化又比降水量明显;春旱强度有减弱的趋势,阴雨寡照逐渐加重;1990年代中期以来气候变暖明显加剧,同时日照时数波动振幅大、夏季雨量有递减趋势;1995年以来云南主要受两种农业气候年型影响,1999-2007年的主要气候年型在1950年代、1960年代和1970年代均未曾出现.气候变化对农业的利弊影响都十分显著.     

山东省作物引种气候诊断技术方法初探

本文阐述了山东省作物引种气候诊断技术方法的基本思路、依据原理、计算方法,并全面概括总结了引种气候诊断综合服务系统的进程图,使读者初步了解这一研究工作的内容,方法和最终目的,与此同时结合山东的气候特点初步进行了引种小区的划分及一、二级农业气候相似区域的标定。     

中国草坪气候区划探讨

根据草坪草的气候生态适应性,分别确定了冷地型草坪草和暖地型草坪草的农业气候指标,在全国范围内选取85个站点,按照7个农业气候指标,运用聚类分析进行了气候区域的划分,并对各区草坪草的选择、繁殖和杂草防治等技术关键进行了评述。     

临安县农业气候分析

农业气候是—地自然资源的重要组成部份。分析气候资源,是农业生产引种改制、作物合理布局和农业气候区刘的基础。为了考察本县山区的农业气候资源,我们在不同高度、不同坡向设立了气象观测点。现就一年的观测资料,通过订正外延,根据气候统计方法和农业生产对气候条件的要求,初步对全县的气候特点和水稻生长季节的农业气候条件进行分析。依据本文整理的资料即可绘制县的气候和农业气候图,并根据农业气候指标,作出水稻和其他作物的农业气候区划。     

内蒙古自治区水稻开发的农业气候条件研究

内蒙古自治区水稻开发的农业气候条件研究张银锁，顾煜时（内蒙古气象科研所）引言水稻原产于热带和亚热带的湿热气候环境中，但人类在育种及农业技术上的努力，使水稻在世界上极为广阔的范围内（４０°Ｓ—５３°Ｎ）都获得了较高的产量［１］。我国的实际种稻范围已延伸...     

基于GIS的赤水市金钗石斛农业气候区划

石斛是热带、亚热带丛生植物,喜温暖湿润气候。赤水市是我国目前金钗石斛最大和最适宜种植区。根据赤水市气候资源特点及金钗石斛适宜生长环境指标,选取了年平均气温、全年≥10℃活动积温、海拔高度、月平均气温≥25.0℃月数、分蘖开花期(3-5月)空气相对湿度等5个气象因子作为种植区划指标,在综合考虑经度、纬度和海拔高度对气候资源影响的基础上,利用遵义市12个气象站1971-2000年气候资料和台站信息,采用逐步回归法分别构建了4个区划因子的细网格推算模型。基于数字高程(DEM)数据推算了分辨率为1 km的赤水市气候资源数据集。利用赋值法对5个区划指标分别计算,按照适宜种植区、次适宜种植区和不适宜种植区3个等级完成了赤水市金钗石斛种植气候区划。区划结果显示,赤水市金钗石斛的适宜种植区随地形和海拔高度而变化,主要分布在沿赤水河两岸和沿习水河两岸的沟谷或山地。次适宜和不适宜区主要分布在海拔700 m以上的半高山地区,冬季气温偏低、热量供应不足和夏秋干旱是这些区域不适宜种植的主要原因。     

运城市农业气候特点分析

对运城市的农业气候特点，主要气象灾害进行了统计分析，总结出主要气象灾害的发生规律和时空分布特点，根据农业生产的实际，针对各种气象灾害、提出切合实际、科学合理的防卸措施和生产建议，为地方部门合理安排农业生产提供科学依据。     

广东"三农"气象服务的现状、问题与对策

广东的农业气象监测、农业气候资源开发、农用天气预报、灾害预警评估、气象信息发布等“三农”气象服务已经取得了一定的成效。但也存在着诸如缺少针对性、缺少多样性、缺乏准确性、缺乏及时性等方面的问题。加强“三农”气象服务,应采取转变观念、建设农村综合气象监测网、丰富服务产品、气象信息进村入户、建设农村突发灾害应急气象服务系统、完善人工增雨减灾作业体系、推进气象科技扶贫等对策与措施。     

Using species traits to guide conservation actions under climate change

Few assessments of species vulnerability to climate change used to inform conservation management consider the intrinsic traits that shape species’ capacity to respond to climate change. This omission is problematic as it may result in management actions that are not optimised for the long-term persistence of species as climates shift. We present a tool for explicitly linking data on plant species’ life history traits and range characteristics to appropriate management actions that maximise their capacity to respond to climate change. We deliberately target data on easily measured and widely available traits (e.g. dispersal syndrome, height, longevity) and range characteristics (e.g. range size, climatic/soil niche breadth), to allow for rapid comparison across many species. We test this framework on 1237 plants, categorising species on the basis of their potential climate change risk as related to four factors affecting their response capacity: reproduction, movement capability, abiotic niche specialisation and spatial coverage. Based on these four factors, species were allocated risk scores, and these were used to test the hypothesis that the current protection status under national legislation and related management actions capture species response capacity to climate change. Our results indicate that 20% of the plant species analysed (242 species) are likely to have a low capacity to respond to climate change based on the traits assessed, and are therefore at high risk. Of the 242 high risk species, only 10% (24 species) are currently listed for protection under conservation legislation. Importantly, many management plans for these listed species fail to address the capacity of species to respond to climate change with appropriate actions: 70% of approved management plans do not include crucial actions which may improve species’ ability to adapt to climate change. We illustrate how the use of easily attainable traits associated with ecological and evolutionary responses to changing environmental conditions can inform conservation actions for plant species globally.     

Ungulate herbivory modifies the effects of climate change on mountain forests

Recent temperature observations suggest a general warming trend that may be causing the range of tree species to shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Since biotic interactions such as herbivory can change tree species composition, it is important to understand their contribution to vegetation changes triggered by climate change. To investigate the response of forests to climate change and herbivory by wild ungulates, we used the forest gap model ForClim v2.9.6 and simulated forest development in three climatically different valleys in the Swiss Alps. We used altitudinal transects on contrasting slopes covering a wide range of forest types from the cold (upper) to the dry (lower) treeline. This allowed us to investigate (1) altitudinal range shifts in response to climate change, (2) the consequences for tree species composition, and (3) the combined effect of climate change and ungulate herbivory. We found that ungulate herbivory changed species composition and that both basal area and stem numbers decreased with increasing herbivory intensity. Tree species responded differently to the change in climate, and their ranges did not change concurrently, thus causing a succession to new stand types. While climate change partially compensated for the reductions in basal area caused by ungulate herbivory, the combined effect of these two agents on the mix of the dominant species and forest type was non-compensatory, as browsing selectively excluded species from establishing or reaching dominance and altered competition patterns, particularly for light. We conclude that there is an urgent need for adaptive forest management strategies that address the joint effects of climate change and ungulate herbivory.     

Potential impacts of climate change on warmwater megafauna: the Florida manatee example (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Most discussions of impacts of Climate Change have focused on species from temperate or polar regions. Impacts to species inhabiting warm climates are often believed to be small relative to those of species living in cooler climates. However, it is evident that some tropical/sub-tropical species, including some marine megafauna may face potentially serious consequences from a changing climate. For example, larger, warmer oceans may appear to benefit marine wildlife species like cold-sensitive Florida manatees; however, findings regarding the impact of global climate change (GCC) on estuaries and nearshore areas of Florida indicate that predicted impacts of climate change may be detrimental to endangered manatees. An examination of how projected impacts of climate change will affect threats to manatees and their habitat indicates that threats may be exacerbated. The most significant threats to the Florida manatee population, such as cold-stress, watercraft collisions, and harmful algal blooms likely will increase. Habitat is likely to be degraded under future climate scenarios. Alterations to Florida’s marine environment are ongoing, yet current manatee management plans do not consider the impacts of climate change. The ability of manatees to adapt to change will be influenced by the speed of change and the degree to which human activity impedes or alters it. To minimize impacts to species we must recognize the influence GCC may have on populations, and begin to identify and implement ways to slow or reverse negative impacts arising from it.     

Modeling interactive effects of climate change,air pollution,and fire on a California Shrubland

A computer simulation model (FINICS) was used to project the interactive effects of CO₂-induced climate change on a drought-deciduous shrubland. FINICS simulates the competitive relations of five dominant shrub species of Californian coastal sage scrub, based on their aboveground growth and reproductive behavior. The model was used to simulate the separate and combined effects of altered precipitation, temperature, ambient ozone levels, and fuel loads and fire intensity, on species composition. Both growth chamber and field data were used to parameterize the model. Projections show that changes attributed to climate variation alone were markedly accentuated when the indirect effects of climate change on fire intensity and ozone pollution were considered. Model results emphasized that change in community composition will result from shifting competitive abilities of individual species under the changed environmental conditions. While neither all of the secondary effects of climate change nor all possible species were included in the model, the projections suggest that inclusion of secondary interactions and species competition will be important in predicting vegetation change realistically.     

The vulnerability of native rangeland plant species to global climate change in the West Asia and North African regions

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of selected native species from two areas from West Asia and North Africa. Three species representing two genera were selected for assessment of their vulnerability to climate change. The first species was Salsola vermiculata L. which is common to both study areas. The second genus was represented by two species, Haloxylon salicornicum (Moq.) Bunge from the Syrian rangelands and H. schmittianum Pomel from southern Tunisia. To assess the vulnerability of these species to climate change we used ecological-based models. The data inputs were composed of the species occurrence data and the environmental data which included eight climatic layers, three soil property layers in addition to an altitude layer. Since environmental parameters only enable assessing the sensitivity of target species to climate change, a grazing pressure layer was used to assess the species vulnerability. Only climatic parameters were considered as changing across three periods; current situation, 2020 and 2050. The main results indicated that threatened range species, such as S. vermiculata which were subjected to continuous grazing pressure, showed high vulnerability to climate change as expressed by the predicted decrease in the areas of their distribution. However, species with low palatability and broad ecological niches (i.e. H. salicornicum and H. schmittianum) had an advantage due to the reduced competition for water and nutrients. An adaptation strategy to increase the resilience of the most vulnerable species should involve management of grazing pressure and the establishment of other mitigation measures.     

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: a bird’s eye view

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.     

Tomorrow’s Forests: Adapting to A Changing Climate

Today’s forests are largely viewed as a natural asset, growing in a climate envelope, which favors natural regeneration of species that have adapted and survived the variability’s of past climates. However, human-induced climate change, variability and extremes are no longer a theoretical concept. It is a real issue affecting all biological systems. Atmospheric scientists, using global climate models, have developed scenarios of the future climate that far exceed the traditional climate envelope and their associated forest management practices. Not all forests are alike, nor do they share the same adaptive life cycles, feedbacks and threats. Much of tomorrow’s forests will become farmed forests, managed in a pro-active, designed and adaptive envelope, to sustain multiple products, values and services. Given the life cycle of most forest species, forest management systems will need to radically adjust their limits of knowledge and adaptive strategies to initiate, enhance and plan forests in relative harmony with the future climate. Protected Areas (IUCN), Global Biosphere Reserves (UNESCO) and Smithsonian Institution sites provide an effective community-based platform to monitor changes in forest species, ecosystems and biodiversity under changing climatic conditions.