An improvement of parametrization of short-wave radiation at the sea surface on the basis of direct measurements in the Atlantic

Based on the data of recent high-accuracy measurements of the incoming fluxes of short-wave radiation in 2004–2006 in the Atlantic, errors of existing short-wave radiation parametrizations are estimated. It is shown that the largest errors occur under large cloud amount. A parametrization scheme is proposed that takes into account not only total cloudiness, but also morphological types of clouds. The scheme improves parametrization under large cloud amount.     

Taylor’s hypothesis and two-point coherence measurements

Experimentally obtained time coherence has traditionally been interpreted as streamwise one-dimensional spatial coherence through Taylor’s hypothesis. We calculate corrections to the highwavenumber part of the coherence to account for the errors caused by the deviation from Taylor’s hypothesis in high-intensity turbulent flows. The small-scale turbulence is assumed to be frozen and convected by a fluctuating convection velocity. Both Lumley’s two-term approximation and the Gaussian approximation are used in the calculations. In general, we find that the coherence for crossstream separations is significantly overestimated by the direct use of Taylor’s hypothesis, the error increasing with wavenumber; that for streamwise separations is underestimated. The analyses are compared with cross-stream coherence measurements in the atmospheric surface layer. Our results indicate that predictions from Lumley’s approximation yield better agreement with experimental data for cross-stream separations than those from the Gaussian model. Our study suggests that reliable measurement of two-point spatial coherence can be achieved only for scales not too small compared to the sensor separation.     

Optimal estimation of Eddy viscosity and friction coefficients for a Quasi‐three‐dimensional numerical tidal model

Abstract

It is shown that the parameters in a quasi‐three‐dimensional numerical tidal model can be estimated accurately by assimilation of data from current meters and tide gauges. The tidal model considered is a semi‐linearized one in which advective nonlinearities are neglected but nonlinear bottom friction is included. The parameters estimated are the eddy viscosity, bottom friction coefficient, water depth and wind drag coefficient, the first three of which are allowed to be position‐dependent. The adjoint method is used to construct the gradient of a cost function defined as a certain norm of the difference between computed and observed current and surface elevations. On the basis of a number of tests, it is shown that very effective estimation of the nodal values of the parameters can be achieved using the current data either alone or in combination with elevation data. When random errors are introduced into the data, the estimated parameters are quite sensitive to the magnitude of the errors, and in particular the eddy viscosity is unstably sensitive. The sensitivity of the viscosity can be stabilized by incorporating an appropriate penalty term in the cost function or alternatively by reducing the number of estimated viscosity values via a finite element approximation. Once stabilized, the sensitivity of the estimates to data errors is significantly reduced by assimilating a longer data record.     

Application of blocking diagnosis methods to General Circulation Models. Part II: model simulations

A previously defined automatic method is applied to reanalysis and present-day (1950–1989) forced simulations of the ECHO-G model in order to assess its performance in reproducing atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere. Unlike previous methodologies, critical parameters and thresholds to estimate blocking occurrence in the model are not calibrated with an observed reference, but objectively derived from the simulated climatology. The choice of model dependent parameters allows for an objective definition of blocking and corrects for some intrinsic model bias, the difference between model and observed thresholds providing a measure of systematic errors in the model. The model captures reasonably the main blocking features (location, amplitude, annual cycle and persistence) found in observations, but reveals a relative southward shift of Eurasian blocks and an overall underestimation of blocking activity, especially over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Blocking underestimation mostly arises from the model inability to generate long persistent blocks with the observed frequency. This error is mainly attributed to a bias in the basic state. The bias pattern consists of excessive zonal winds over the Euro-Atlantic sector and a southward shift at the exit zone of the jet stream extending into in the Eurasian continent, that are more prominent in cold and warm seasons and account for much of Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian blocking errors, respectively. It is shown that other widely used blocking indices or empirical observational thresholds may not give a proper account of the lack of realism in the model as compared with the proposed method. This suggests that in addition to blocking changes that could be ascribed to natural variability processes or climate change signals in the simulated climate, attention should be paid to significant departures in the diagnosis of phenomena that can also arise from an inappropriate adaptation of detection methods to the climate of the model.     

Determination of design hydrological characteristics with consideration of historical maxima

Application of information about the historical maxima in hydrological computations allows one to improve design hydrological performances and to pass in some cases from extrapolation to interpolation as a more reliable solution. In this paper, an analytical solution is given for a task of determination of empirical probabilities and parameters of distribution function taking into account any historical maxima, which are located inside as well as outside the time series of observations and for their mixed location. For particular case studies, an advantage of consideration of the historical maxima is shown in comparison with computations without these maxima. It has also been shown that the exponential function between maximum discharges in order of their reduction and ordinates of standard normal distribution are effective enough for fitting the upper part of empirical distribution function.     

Improved Estimation of Errors due to Antenna Geometry in RASS Based on a Radar Wind Profiler

Summary A rigorous theoretical consideration of the parameters of a received signal for a RASS based on a radar wind profiler and operating in the “Bragg”-operation mode is performed. The calculation approach is based on solving the equations analytically for diffractive wave beams and takes into account diffraction effects in the Fresnel approxim ation for both radio and acoustic waves generated by antennas with finite sizes. It is shown that the errors due to the displacement of an acoustic source and horizontal wind are negligible for RASS based on a monostatic radar not only in the far-field but also in the transition zone between the Fresnel diffraction and far-field ranges at the lowest RASS operational heights. Received August 24, 1998 Revised February 25, 1999     

Measurements of chemically and biologically effective radiation reaching the ground

Solar ultraviolet radiation at the surface has been measured at Potsdam on cloudless days by spectrometer OL 752/10. The measurements are compared with broad-band filter measurements and with model calculations using a modified version of Green's model, which is independent of the measurements. Input data to the model such as atmospheric ozone and aerosol optical thicknesses were measured by a Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometer as well as a Linke Feussner pyrheliometer, respectively. Differences between the model and the measurements are discussed in terms of uncertainties in the calibration and errors of instruments as well as uncertainties in the model calculations including the errors of input data. It is demonstrated that different chemically and biologically effective radiances can be determined from only one set of measured spectral irradiance components, i.e. global radiation and diffuse downward and upward directed radiation. Examples of diurnal variations of the photochemical production of ozone and hydroxyl radicals as determined from spectral irradiance measurements and measured concentrations of relevant trace gases are given.It is shown from the measured irradiance that relations between different effects of radiation to the biosphere depend on solar zenith angle, and to a certain extent also on atmospheric ozone. This has to be taken into account when adverse effects of changing UV radiation are evaluated. Radiation Amplification Factors derived from measurements correspond to those determined from model calculations.     

Horizontal, Two Point Coherence for Separations Greater Than the Measurement Height

Wind speed measurements from the test site at Rutherford Appleton Laboratory have been evaluated with respect to the spatial coherence function. The experimental arrangement provides coherence information for separation distances of 62, 80 and 102 m. These are at least three times greater than the measurement heights of 18 m and 18.7 m. Based on these experimental data and data published in the literature, different theoretical formulations are compared and a new, but simple, model for longitudinal and lateral coherence is proposed. At large separations the turbulent wind field is not isotropic, theoretical models to describe the coherence function for such distances are not available. The new model we propose builds on the classical exponential approach. It takes into account the influence of turbulence intensity and models the angular dependence of horizontal coherence. It is found that, for constant turbulence intensity, the lateral coherence decay becomes independent of the mean wind speed.     

Analysis of results of numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model with allowance for peculiarities of the underlying surface in megalopolises

A hypothesis is put forward that underlying surface peculiarities over large cities should be taken into account in the atmospheric circulation modeling, climate change studies, and in the numerical weather forecast. It is demonstrated based on the analysis of satellite images that the scales of changes in the underlying surface properties amount to hundreds of kilometers and that their influence can be studied with a large-scale atmospheric general circulation model. The influence of changes in the underlying surface characteristics in the cities on the surface temperature is analyzed. It is shown that the model atmosphere is sensitive to changes in surface properties in the cities. It is also shown that the surface air temperature approaches the observed climate over most land part of the urban territories, where peculiarities of the urban territories are taken into account. The model of the city should be changed in the areas, where such a result was not obtained. According to the experimental results, the model of the city in the mid- and high latitudes should differ from the model in the southern latitudes, but it should be taken into consideration for all urbanized areas of the world.     

Prediction of severe winds and rainfalls in Western Siberia using plane rotations

A statistical model for prediction of hazardous phenomena such as severe winds and heavy rainfalls is described. The pattern recognition method based on direct minimization of the errors of recognition is used as the main instrument for modeling and prediction. The construction of the hyperplanes based on error minimization is performed with simultaneous screening of the initial parameters using the same criterion. The algorithm elaborated takes into account different error prices for different kinds of errors and thus effectively distinguishes the “domain” in some multidimensional space of the situations determined as “dangerous.” The domain may be confined by several hyperplanes the number of which depends on the distribution of dangerous situations in multidimensional space. The model comprises the accommodation that takes into account the development of the phenomenon in time and space. The construction was carried out for prediction of winds and rainfall 24 and 36 h in advance for four administrative districts of Western Siberia.     

各种物理强迫激发的平均经圈环流特征及其对数值天气预报模式系统误差的贡献

本文证明7种强迫作用激发经圈环流的线性叠加性，分项考察了各种物理强迫激发经圈环流的特征，通过考察一个数值模式的模式大气和实际大气各种物理强迫激发经圈环流的差异，分析了模式系统误差的成因，这种建立在动力背景之上的模式误差分析方法，其物理意义明确，具有较为普遍的适用性。     

Model estimates of the fog parameters on the coasts of the Siberian reservoirs

Features are considered of using a two-dimensional model of the atmospheric boundary layer for estimation of coastal fog parameters for the Siberian reservoirs, based on reanalysis and on output data of a regional climate model. The model fog characteristics are compared with observations at the reservoirs of Surgut power plants. Examples are given of the fog characteristic calculation for the projected Evenki hydrosystem. It is shown that the data of regional climate model can be used if the changes are taken into account of background climate in the area of the projected reservoir.     

DIAGNOSIS OF NWP SYSTEMATIC FORECAST ERRORS IN ZONAL MEAN CIRCULATION

It is proved in this paper that NWP systematic forecast errors in the zonal mean circulation aredue to the difference in westerly acceleration process during the forecasting period between model andreal atmospheres.Those forcing factors which evoke the zonal mean wind variation can be split into various linearterms according to the non-acceleration theorem in a primitive equation system,By applying this tech-nique to the diagnosis of the forecast produets of the T42L9 model in January 1992 and in July 1992,it is indicated that the model has the ability to forecast the zonal mean wind to a reasonable extent,but there are still some errors in several places,especially in the upper troposphere and lower strato-sphere in the mid-latitude region as well as near the surface.The results of analysis by employing thisscheme reveal the reason responsible for the systematic forecast errors of the zonal mean wind in themodel and the possible way of improving it.It is also shown that non-acceleration theorem can be used as an efficient tool to diagnose thephysical processes of NWP models.     

Day-night differences in the effective emissivity from clear skies

A study of the effective emissivity from clear skies shows significant differences between night- and day-time behaviours. These differences seem to be related to the different conditions aloft for the day and night periods. For this reason, estimation formulae that rely only on surface parameters do not provide accurate estimates on an hourly basis. A deviation correction in terms of the hour of the day is proposed. This term takes into account the differences in the daily cycle of effective emissivity for different seasons, and provides estimates accurate to within the experimental errors.     

On Longitudinal Spectral Coherence

It is demonstrated that the longitudinal spectral coherence differs significantly from the transversal spectral coherence in its dependence on displacement and frequency. An expression for the longitudinal coherence is derived and it is shown how the scale of turbulence, the displacement between observation sites and the turbulence intensity influence the results. The limitations of the theory are discussed.     

On longitudinal spectral coherence

It is demonstrated that the longitudinal spectral coherence differs significantly from the transversal spectral coherence in its dependence on displacement and frequency. An expression for the longitudinal coherence is derived and it is shown how the scale of turbulence, the displacement between observation sites and the turbulence intensity influence the results. The limitations of the theory are discussed.     

全球资料同化中误差协方差三维结构的准确估计与应用Ⅱ:背景误差协方差调整与数值试验分析

利用NMC方法针对背景误差协方差的方差、三维相关与特征长度来揭示T213L31模式的误差主要特点,并与传统更新矢量方法的计算结果进行了对比与调整。结果表明NMC方法结果与更新矢量方法结果在大体特征上基本吻合,但细节上的差异不可忽视,特别是对背景误差方差与特征长度的估计存在显著的差异,其主要原因是NMC方法倾向于高估天气尺度波的背景误差,而低估次天气尺度到中尺度波的背景误差。通过对背景误差方差、特征长度的调整,显著改善了背景误差功率谱的分布特点,使得NMC方法结果与更新矢量方法结果更为吻合。通过三维变分同化与最优插值中观测与背景误差相对重要性的比较,发现两者结果基本一致,但三维变分同化在850 hPa以下的温度场和300 hPa以上的风场统计结果都表现出背景误差相对于观测误差偏小的特点。背景误差相对于观测误差偏小有助于保证分析场中质量场与风场平衡,消除了大气底层和高层质量场与风场不匹配现象。在数值试验中,针对不同的背景误差均方差与特征长度的特点,分析了分析增量和预报效果的差异,结果表明,准确的背景误差估计与优化工作改善了预报效果,使得北半球三维变分同化的120 h预报效果整体好于现有最优插值。     

NWP 模式热量系统误差的动力诊断分析

文章证明了模式在预报时段的位温误差，是由于在模式大气和真实大气中，该时段内位温变化过程的不同而造成的。还证明了原始方程的无加速定理对各强迫因子的线性分解同样适用于研究NWP模式热量误差的成因。对国家气象中心T42L9模式1992年1月和7月预报结果的动力诊断表明，模式对纬向位温分布具有较好的预报能力，但在各纬带也存在明显的误差。通过无加速定理的分解分析，研究了这些误差的成因及改善模式的可能途径。     

Effects of Turbulence and Flow Inclination on the Performance of Cup Anemometers in the Field

Four commercial and one research cup anemometers were comparatively tested in a complex terrain site to quantify the effects of turbulence and flow inclination on the wind speed measurements. The difference of the mean windspeed reading between the anemometers was as much as 2% for wind directions where the mean flow was horizontal. This difference was large enough to be attributed to the well-known overspeeding effect related to the differing distance constant (ranging from 1.7 to 5 m) of the cup anemometers. The application of a theoretical model of the cup-anemometer behaviour in athree-dimensional turbulent wind field proved successful in explaining theobserved differences.Additional measurements were taken with the anemometers tilted at known angles into and out of the incident wind flow. Thus, a field-derived angular response curve is constructed for each anemometer and the deviations from publishedwind-tunnel results are discussed.The uncertainties of, or false assumptions about, the angular response characteristics of the anemometers contribute the largest amount inthe observed errors of mean wind speed even for a horizontal mean flow. The angular response curves are finally used to correct the 10-min mean windspeed. The necessary information for the correction is the turbulent intensity (preferably in the vertical direction) and the mean flow inclination.For demanding applications, the angular response parameters of cup anemometers should be taken into account. The incorporation of the angular response parameters in a correction scheme would be most robustly applied if their variation with inclination and wind speed was smooth.     

Similarity criteria for the application of fluid models to the study of air pollution meteorology

Similarity criteria for modeling atmospheric flows in air and water are reviewed. It is shown that five nondimensional parameters plus a set of nondimensional boundary conditions must be matched in model and prototype. The neglect of the Rossby number can lead to serious errors in modeling of diffusion in a prototype with a length scale greater than about five kilometers. The Reynolds number, the Peclet number and the Reynolds-Schmidt product criteria may be neglected if the model flow is of sufficiently high Reynolds number. The Froude number criterion appears to be the most important. The complete specification of boundary conditions is found to be nebulous, but is discussed in some detail. Over-roughening of the model surface may be necessary to satisfy a roughness Reynolds number criterion. Both air and water appear to be suitable fluids to use as modeling media.On assignment from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Department of Commerce.