美国第23届气候诊断与预测年会

介绍１９９８年１０月于佛罗里达州召开的第２３届气候诊断与预测年会，着重讨论了如下７个问题：１９９７年／１９９８年厄尔尼诺，１９９７／１９９８年ＥＳＮＯ的预测，ＥＮＳＯ影响的研究ＥＮＳＯ的年代际变率，年代际气候变率，气候预测业务及气候可预测性研究。     

美国第20届气候诊断年会

文章介绍了１９９５年１０月在西雅图召开的美国第２０届气候诊断年会，着重讨论了如下８个问题：气候变暖，ＥＮＳＯ影响，全球降水分析，年代际气候变率，ＥＮＳＯ预测，数值气候预测，统计气候预报及气候模拟。     

1994/1995年ENSO事件的诊断分析

根据热带大气海洋状况的监测资料，诊断分析了１９９４／１９９５年ＥＮＳＯ事件发生的特殊气候背景，“事件”的发生发展过程和特点，及其对世界天气气候的影响，为热带海－气相互作用和ＥＮＳＯ事件的理论研究，模拟和预测提供较详细的观测资料和分析事实。     

ENSO及其对亚洲季风和我国气候变化影响的研究

ＥＮＳＯ及其对亚洲季风和我国气候变化影响的研究是当今气候研究中的重要问题，本文总结了作者在《气候动力学和气候预测方法研究》项目中有关专题“大洋，尤其ＥＮＳＯ和西太平洋暖池对东亚大气环流和我国气候影响”的研究工作，主要分三方面：１，ＥＮＳＯ是多时空尺度海气相互作用的结果－ＥＮＳＯ形成机理的研究；２．ＭＥＮＳＯ对我国东亚季风和我国气候影响，３，ＥＮＳＯ及其对我国气候影响的可预报性和预报试验。     

ENSO对南沙海域气候状况的影响

对１９６１—１９９０年（部分资料到１９９４年）期间在南沙海域的观测资料，进行了统计分析，其结果表明：在ＥＮＳＯ发生的当年，南沙海域的海平面气压呈正距平，年降水量明显偏少，热带气旋活动的日数一般偏少；在历次ＥＮＳＯ过程中，南沙海域的总云量与ＳＯＩ的变化趋势基本一致。该项工作有助于了解ＥＮＳＯ对南沙海域天气气候的综合影响和提高天气预报的质量     

美国第24届气候诊断与预测年会

该文介绍了１９９９年１１月５￣９日在亚利桑那州图森召开的美国第２４届气候诊断与预测年会着重讨论了几个问题：①气候诊断，②季节内振荡，③ＥＮＳＯ影响，④夏季风降水，⑤季度预测，⑥气候与疾病及健康。     

美国第21届气候诊断与预测年会

文章介绍了１９９６年１０月２８日到１１月１日在美国亚拉巴马州的亨茨维利召开的美国第２１届气候诊断年会，着重讨论了如下７个问题；当前的气候异常、亚洲季风与ＥＮＳＯ、年代际气候变率、两到月尺度数值预报、季度数值预测研究、带地区的统计预报及气候业预报。     

中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统的改进及其对1998年全国汛期旱涝形势的预测

通过引入改善了地表反照率参数化方案的中国科学院大气物理研究所（ＩＡＰ）大气环流模式,我们对ＩＡＰ短期气候距平预测系统（ＩＡＰＰＳＳＣＡ）中的大气模式部分进行了改进。利用改进前后的ＩＡＰＰＳＳＣＡ,我们对１９８０～１９９４共１５年中国夏季降水异常进行了集合预报检验,与实测结果比较表明,改进后的ＩＡＰＰＳＳＣＡ对江淮和华南地区的预报技巧与原先的系统相比只是有略微的提高,但对我国东北、华北、河套区域以及整个中国东部的预报技巧则比原系统有较大程度的提高,从而表明气候模式中陆面过程的正确表述可以提高模式气候预测的能力。利用改进的ＩＡＰＰＳＳＣＡ和ＩＡＰＥＮＳＯ预测系统提供的预测海温距平,我们对１９９８年中国夏季降水异常进行了预报（该预测３月份提供给有关单位）。今与实际情况比较表明,改进了的ＩＡＰＰＳＳＣＡ和ＩＡＰＥＮＳＯ预测系统耦合,对１９９８我国夏季旱涝形势的预测与实测基本相符,但强度较小,说明有一定预报能力,但也还有许多问题。     

1991—1992年ENSO事件的特征

根据美国国家海洋大气局气候分析中心（ＣＡＣ）和中国气象局气候监测公报所提供的海－气资料，综合分析了１９９１－１９９２年ＥＮＳＯ事件的形成、发展过程。这次ＥＮＳＯ事件的主要特点是：①在ＥＮＳＯ事件爆发前一年内热带太平洋海气特性频频呈现异常，暖水堆积在赤道中太平洋（５°Ｎ－５°Ｓ，１６０°Ｅ－１６０°Ｗ）约１２个月，然后自西向东传输，爆发１９９１－１９９２年ＥＮＳＯ事件。②对ＥＮＳＯ事件作出响应的西太     

冰芯中所记录的气候异常与ENSO事件

通过对３００ＢＰ以来记录于中国古里雅冰芯中的降水和δ１８Ｏ等环境气候信息记录及ＥＮ－ＳＯ事件的分析,发现ＥＮＳＯ的发生与古里雅降水异常显著相关。在厄尔尼诺年,古里雅冰芯中的降水与δ１８Ｏ均负异常,即ＥＮＳＯ与古里雅的降水偏少,温度偏低相联系。     

ENSO冷暖事件与郑州地区汛期气候异常关系

利用1951—2000年郑州站汛期气温和降水资料，分析了ENSO冷暖事件与郑州地区汛期气候异常的关系。结果发现：ENS0冷暖事件对郑州地区汛期降水和气温均有较大影响，对降水异常的影响更显著。暖事件出现当年，郑州地区汛期易出现降水异常偏少，次年则易出现降水异常偏多；冷事件出现当年，郑州地区汛期降水易出现异常偏多，次年降水出现异常的几率较小。     

ENSO in a hybrid coupled model. Part II: prediction with piggyback data assimilation

A hybrid coupled model (HCM) for the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system is employed for ENSO prediction. The HCM consists of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ocean general circulation model and an empirical atmospheric model. In hindcast experiments, a correlation skill competitive to other prediction models is obtained, so we use this system to examine the effects of several initialization schemes on ENSO prediction. Initialization with wind stress data and initialization with wind stress reconstructed from SST using the atmospheric model give comparable skill levels. In re-estimating the atmospheric model in order to prevent hindcast-period wind information from entering through empirical atmospheric model, we note some sensitivity to the estimation data set, but this is considered to have limited impact for ENSO prediction purposes. Examination of subsurface heat content anomalies in these cases and a case forced only by the difference between observed and reconstructed winds suggests that at the current level of prediction skill, the crucial wind components for initialization are those associated with the slow ENSO mode, rather than with atmospheric internal variability. A “piggyback” suboptimal data assimilation is tested in which the Climate Prediction Center data assimilation product from a related ocean model is used to correct the ocean initial thermal field. This yields improved skill, suggesting that not all ENSO prediction systems need to invest in costly data assimilation efforts, provided the prediction and assimilation models are sufficiently close. Received: 17 April 1998 / Accepted: 22 July 1999     

零维气候模式中物理参数对气候状态的影响

建立一个包含年平均下垫面温度、边界层气温的非线性的零维气候模式, 用于研究物理参数 (地球放射率、大气有效放射率、地表反照率、大气透射率等) 对气候系统状态的影响。结果表明, 气候系统的平衡态及其稳定性与反照率的反馈作用和有效放射率有关; 在现代气候条件下, 适当的非线性负反馈与二氧化碳、水汽、云共同作用时, 有利于系统状态趋于稳定。此外, 通过与该模式相应的现代气候平衡态的偏差方程, 考察了在参数α₂w, I₀的作用下, 系统状态的分布情况。     

ENSO循环及相关研究综述

ENSO（El Nino ＆ South Oscillation）是热带海气相互作用的强信号,对全球气候异常有着重要影响。本文着重论述近几十年来ENSO循环与相关海一气系统相互作用的研究现状。首先从线性、非线性两方面阐述了ENSO循环的正负反馈机制;其次,详细论述了西太平洋暖池、热带大气环流和中高纬海一气系统与ENSO循环相互作用的物理过程和机制;最后,从统计预测和数值预测两方面对ENSO的预测现状进行了评述。     

气候模拟研究进展

根据地回顾了大约４０年来气候模拟研究的发展过程，指出根据研究的目标可以分为三个阶段；模拟大气平均状况、敏感性实验及气候变率的模拟，着重总结了近年来气候变率模拟的最新成果，包括对印度夏季风降水，萨赫勒干旱、气候变率、世界三大涛动、ＥＮＳＯ循环及中国旱涝型的模拟研究。     

ENSO in a hybrid coupled model. Part I: sensitivity to physical parametrizations

 A hybrid coupled model (HCM) for the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system is used to test the effects of physical parametrizations on ENSO simulation. The HCM consists of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ocean general circulation model coupled to an empirical atmospheric model based on the covariance matrix of observed SST and wind stress anomaly fields. In this two-part work, part I describes the effects of ocean vertical mixing schemes and atmospheric spin-up time on ENSO period. Part II addresses ENSO prediction using the HCM and examines the impact of initialization schemes. The standard version of the HCM exhibits spatial and temporal evolution that compare well to observations, with irregular cycles that tend to exhibit 3- and 4-year frequency-locking behavior. Effects in the vertical mixing parametrization that produce stronger mixing in the surface layer give a longer inherent ENSO period, suggesting model treatment of vertical mixing is crucial to the ENSO problem. Although the atmospheric spin-up time scale is short compared to ENSO time scales, it also has a significant effect in lengthening the ENSO period. This suggests that atmospheric time scales may not be truly negligible in quantitative ENSO theory. Overall, the form and evolution mechanism of the ENSO cycle is robust, even though the period is affected by these physical parametrizations. Received: 17 April 1998 / Accepted: 22 July 1999     

A Hybrid Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model and Its Simulation of ENSO and Atmospheric Responses

A new hybrid coupled model(HCM) is presented in this study, which consists of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model. The ocean component is the intermediate ocean model(IOM)of the intermediate coupled model(ICM) used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS). The atmospheric component is ECHAM5, the fifth version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model. The HCM integrates its atmospheric and oceanic components by using an anomaly coupling strategy. A100-year simulation has been made with the HCM and its simulation skills are evaluated, including the interannual variability of SST over the tropical Pacific and the ENSO-related responses of the global atmosphere. The model shows irregular occurrence of ENSO events with a spectral range between two and five years. The amplitude and lifetime of ENSO events and the annual phase-locking of SST anomalies are also reproduced realistically. Despite the slightly stronger variance of SST anomalies over the central Pacific than observed in the HCM, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies related to ENSO,such as sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation, are in broad agreement with observations. Therefore, this model can not only simulate the ENSO variability, but also reproduce the global atmospheric variability associated with ENSO, thereby providing a useful modeling tool for ENSO studies. Further model applications of ENSO modulations by ocean–atmosphere processes, and of ENSO-related climate prediction, are also discussed.     

海冰在大气环流模式中的重要作用

文章简要综述了次网格尺度海冰非均匀性对大气环流模式性能的影响；南极冰在全球环流和短期气候变化中的作用；以及模式中不同的海冰反照率参数化对地表温度和辐射的影响等研究结果．说明海冰对极地海洋和大气的能量收支及短期气候变化有重要作用，不同的海冰参数化方案对气候模拟结果有重要影响．