Variations in the summer monsoon rainbands across eastern China over the past 300 years

Based on reconstructions of precipitation events from the rain and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty (1736–1911),the drought/flood index data mainly derived from Chinese local gazettes from 1736–2000, and the observational data gathered since 1951,the spatial patterns of monsoon rainbands are analyzed at different time scales.Findings indicate that monsoon rainfall in northern China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River have significant inter-annual(e.g.,5–7-yr and 2–4-yr)as well as inter-de...     

热带太平洋经向风异常年际变化与海温异常的关系

运用奇异谱分析（SSA）方法对热带太平洋海温和经向风进行周期分析，结果表明太平洋海气系统存在准4年、准2年和年代际尺度的变化周期，其中准4年的变率最大。不同区域的风场，在不同时间尺度上与海温异常联系的紧密程度不同，位相的演变也有差异。文中还讨论了在准4年与准2年分量之间因风场的不同而导致的海温异常的差异。     

我国旱涝36年周期及其产生的机制

本文分析了近五百年旱涝资料,发现我国东部存在36年左右的周期,长江下游地区尤其明显。进一步研究了近百年大气环流的多年变化,发现赤道中太平洋地区36年周期最突出,并且与旱涝的周期变化有密切关系。利用近期的海温资料及以前不同作者的研究结果,我们提出了一个旱涝36年周期变化机制的模式:当赤道中太平洋海面温度偏低时,相应赤道中太平洋海乎面气压偏高,澳洲附近气压偏低,对应南方涛动指数偏强,沃克环流强,哈得来环流东弱西强,北半球太平洋副热带高压东弱西强且西伸、位置偏南,我国长江下游地区偏涝;反之则偏旱。     

Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871–1978

Analysis of the All-India summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall for the period 1871 to 1978 has been made in order to understand the interannual and long-term variability of the monsoon. On a country level, India receives 85.31 cm mean monsoon rainfall which is 78%; of the annual rainfall. The coefficient of variation of monsoon rainfall at the country level is 9.5%;. The highest and lowest rainfall country level were observed in the years 1961 and 1877 respectively, the range being 41 cm about 48%; of the long term average. There are 13/9 years of large-scale deficit/excess in the 108-yr period. There is a continuous rise in the 10-yr mean rainfall from 1899 to 1953. There are four major climatic rainfall periods in the series. Correlogram and spectrum analysis showed significant 14-yr and 2.8-yr cycles respectively in 108-yr series; however detailed examination indicated that these cycles have developed during the last 30 yr of the data period.     

Niño海区冷暖事件的小波功率谱分析

根据NOAA/CPC发布的1950．1-2003-12期间Nino海区的SSTA资料，采用小波变换方法分析了SST变化的多时间尺度结构及其强度变化。结果表明，Nino各海区的SSTA序列表现出多层次相互嵌套的时频结构，经检验存在着2～7a、8-20a和30a以上尺度的变化周期；10a以上和1a以下时间尺度的周期信号能量较弱。显著性变化周期的能量主要集中在2～7a的周期振荡上；同一事件在不同海区的频率结构也不完全相同，冷暖事件的振荡能量和显著性水平从东向西有低频增大而高频减弱的变化趋势，时域中1970年以后尤为明显。     

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed:TXx and TNn(the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5 day(the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD(maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21 st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear.A general increase in RX5 day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21 st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5 day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.     

Distribution Characteristics of the Intensity and Extreme Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Influencing China

To address the deficiency of climatological research on tropical cyclones(TCs) influencing China, we analyze the distributions of TCs with different intensities in the region, based on the best-track TC data for1949–2011 provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute. We also present the distributions of 50- and 100-yr return-period TCs with different intensities using the Gumbel probability distribution. The results show that TCs with different intensities exert distinctive effects on various regions of China and its surrounding waters. The extreme intensity distributions of TCs over these different regions also differ. Super and severe typhoons mainly influence Taiwan Island and coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, while typhoons and TCs with lower intensities influence South China most frequently. The probable maximum TC intensity(PMTI) with 50- and 100-yr return periods influencing Taiwan Island is below 890 hPa; the PMTI with a50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces is less than 910 hPa, and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 900 hPa; the PMTI with a 50-yr return period influencing the coastal areas of Hainan, Guangdong, and the northern part of the South China Sea is lower than 930 hPa,and that with a 100-yr return period is less than 920 hPa. The results provide a useful reference for the estimation of extreme TC intensities over different regions of China.     

东北地区夏季干旱的年际—年代际变化特征

利用国家气候中心提供的1951—2012年160个标准站的逐月降水和温度资料,计算了表征东北地区干旱的SPEI指数,并对该指数进行EMSD分解,研究了东北地区干旱的年际—年代际变化特征。结果表明,东北地区夏季干旱年际—年代际变化特征明显,年际变化中具有显著的准2 a、准5 a和准7 a振荡周期;年代际变化中则具有显著的准17 a和22 a振荡周期。进一步分析发现,1975—1984年和1994—2008年为相对干旱阶段,其中1994—2008年旱情比较严重,1953—1975年、1984—1994年以及2009—2012年为相对湿润阶段。Mann-Kendal检验结果表明,东北地区夏季旱涝突变发生在1975年和1994年。     

长江下游谷物天气产量变化与大型环流准周期性振动的分析

本文分析了近几十年谷物产量和百余年海平面气压场及降水资料。揭示我国东部长江下游粮产区的天气和谷物天气产量存在30—40年的长周期振动和2—3年的短周期振动,并且与特定的相一致的大型环流系统振动相配合。通过分析讨论,提出了一个“环流一天气一天气产量”同步振动模式。简言之,即当冬季贝加尔湖冷高压偏弱和澳洲低压偏强,相应地,春季赤道低压偏强以及夏季南方涛动偏强时,则长江下游处于(长周期振动的)多水期或(短周期振动的)多水年型,谷物天气产量偏低。反之,则处于少水期或少水年型,谷物天气产量偏高。     

On Climatic Fluctuations and Environmental Changes of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

Paralleling the Southern Himalayan Province, the Indo-GangeticPlains region (IGPR) of India (geographical area 6,00,000 km²) is veryimportant for the food security of South Asia. Due to numerous factors inoperation there is widespread apprehension regarding sustainability offragile ecosystems of the region. Literature provides detailed documentation of environmental changes due to different factors except climatic. The present study is intended to document the instrumental-period fluctuations of important climatic parameters like rainfall amounts (1829–1999), severe rainstorms (1880–1996) and temperature (1876–1997) exclusively for the IGPR. The summer monsoon rainfall over western IGPR shows increasing trend(170 mm/100-yr, significant at 1% level) from 1900 while over central IGPR it shows decreasing trend (5 mm/100-yr, not significant) from 1939 and over eastern IGPR decreasing trend (50 mm/100-yr, not significant) during 1900–1984 and insignificant increasing trend (480 mm/100-yr, not significant) during 1984–1999. Broadly it is inferred that there has been a westward shift in rainfall activities over the IGPR. Analysis suggests westward shift in the occurrence of severe rainstorms also. These spatial changes in rainfall activities are attributed to global warming and associated changes in the Indian summer monsoon circulation and the general atmosphericcirculation. The annual surface air temperature of the IGPR showed rising trend (0.53 ° C/100-yr, significant at 1% level) during 1875–1958 and decreasing trend (–0.93 ° C/100-yr, significant at 5% level) during 1958–1997. The post-1958 period cooling of the IGPR seems to be due to expansion and intensification of agricultural activities and spreading of irrigation network in the region. Lateral shift in the river courses is an environmental hazard of serious concern in the IGPR. In the present study it is suggested that meteorologic factors like strength and direction of low level winds and spatial shift in rainfall/climatic belt also play a significant role along with tectonic disturbances and local sedimentological adjustments in the vagrancy of the river courses over the IGPR.     

The periodicity of storm surges in the Bering Sea from 1898 to 1993, based on newspaper accounts

Spectral analysis of 96 yr of Bering Sea storm records reported in the Nome News (1899–1903) and Nome Nugget (1901–1993) newspapers indicate regularities in the 11-, 5–7- and 3-yr periods. Statistical tests on the 11-yr period found no statistically significant correlation with sunspot cyclicity despite a tendency toward maximum storminess during low sunspot periods. The 3- and 5–7-yr cycles may correlate with variability in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and easterly shifts in the mean position of North Pacific low pressure anomalies. Storm surges were infrequent from 1916 to 1928 and 1947 to 1959, while the most frequent and intense storms hit during 1900–1913, 1936–1946, 1974–1976 and in 1992.     

Interannual to decadal variability of the winter Aleutian Low intensity during 1900–2004

A new winter Aleutian Low (AL) intensity index was defined in this paper. A centurial-long time series of this index was constructed using the sea level pressure (SLP) data of nearly 100 years. The features of interannual and decadal variability of the winter AL intensity since 1900 were analyzed by applying the wavelet analysis. The relationship between the winter AL intensity and atmospheric circulation was examined. The cross-wavelet analysis technique was used to further reveal the relationship between the AL intensity and sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (EEP) and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in winter. The results indicate that: 1) On the interannual timescale, the winter AL intensity displays 3–7-yr oscillations, while on the decadal timescale, 8–10-yr and 16–22-yr oscillations are more obvious. 2) Of the linkage to atmospheric circulation, both AO (Arctic Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific North America pattern) are closely associated with winter AL intensity on the interannual timescale, but only PNA contributes to the variation of winter AL intensity on the decadal timescale. 3) As to the ocean impact, winter EEP SST is a major factor affecting the winter AL intensity on the interannual timescale, especially on the 3–7-yr periods. However, on the decadal timescale, though both the TIO and EEP SSTs are associated with the AL intensity in winter, the TIO SST impact is more significant.     

太阳活动11年周期对气候系统中准两年振荡的影响(英)

用一个有外强迫的、简单的动力系统研究气候系统中的准两年振荡(平均周期长度比两年稍长或稍短的准周期振荡)。结果显示,准两年周期性源于该系统对于受11年周期调制的季节强迫的非线性响应。当系统的非线性固定时,准两年震荡的周期长度和振幅随季节变化的强度和太阳活动11年周期变化的强度而变化。这可能是造成气候中准两年震荡的性质有时空变化的原因之一。     

近百年东亚登陆台风的长期振动

按不同地段统计分析了1884—1980年期间东亚登陆台风个数以偏多期与偏少期交替为特征的长期振动。发现东亚沿太平洋的多数地段上登陆台风数的长周期振动的主要周期为20年左右,较短周期的振动主要有5～6年和2～3年周期。不同地段上长期振动的差异主要表现在周期、位相和振幅上。还发现登陆台风数的长期振动与春夏季节关键地区的大型气压环流的低频振动有某种关联。      

Energetics of Boreal Wintertime Blocking Highs around the Ural Mountains

Based on the daily Japanese 55-yr reanalysis data, this study analyzes the maintenance mechanism for 53 boreal winter blocking highs around the Ural Mountains (...     

我国华南谷物天气产量变化与大型环流准周期性振动的分析

本文分析了我国华南水稻天气产量、降水天气、大型气压环流三者的联系。揭示了"环流—天气—天气产量"具有20—30年左右的长周期振动和2—3年的短周期振动。长期振动模式描述为,北半球春季由太平洋赤道低压带与澳洲附近高压带组合的"南方涛动"偏弱时,相应地,夏季北太平洋高压偏强,华南处于多水期。水稻天气产量偏低。反之,华南处于少水期,水稻天气产量偏高。      

冬季北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化

对1948-2004 NCEP／NCAR 500hPa高度场资料进行滤波后,采用累积距平、Morlet小波分析、合成分析等方法,研究了风暴轴中心的强度、经纬度以及面积指数的年代际变化。结果表明,56a来北太平洋风暴轴的中心强度平均约为32dagpm^2,中心位置约在172°W、44．5°N。小波分析表明,冬季北太平洋风暴轴的中心强度和面积都存在着18a的年代际变化周期。此外,风暴轴中心强度与面积指数有很好的正相关关系。总的来说,风暴轴中心强度增强（减弱）时期,一般对应着风暴轴面积增大（缩小）和位置向西（东）、向南（北）移动。     

Characteristics of the Acid Rain Variation in China During 1993-2006 and Associated Causes

The acid rain observation network of China Meteorological Administration was established in 1989 with 22 stations.From 1993 to 2005,more than 80 stations were included and maintained in the network.In 2006-2007,the number of stations in the network went up to 294.In consideration of the data continuity,data used in this paper are the 14-yr observations of the 80 stations from 1993 to 2006.Based on the 14-yr observation of acid rain,analysis shows that the acid rain in China dominates in the vast regions south of the Yangtze River.Limited presence of acid rain is observed in the northern part of China.The 14-yr acid rain data reveal an expanding tendency for acid rain area,with the north of China being a growing zone,and the South China remaining virtually unchanged.The most severely polluted zone of acid rain gradually moves from Southwest China to Central China and the middle part of South China.With regard to the acid intensity of rain,the period of 1993-1998 bears the highest acid intensity; the period of 1999-2002 shows a bit weakening intensity; and in the period of 2003 2006,the acid intensity of rain increases again,basically up to the average acidity of the period of 1993-1998 by the end of 2006.In addition,rain acidity in the north of China increases markedly.As to the causes of the acid rain situation in China,this paper examined the sulfur dioxide emissions as well as the rainwater chemicals monitoring data.     

Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate. Part II: Dominant Timescales in Decadal-Centennial Climate Variability

Part Ⅱ of this study detects the dominant decadal-centennial timescales in four SST indices up to the 2010/2011 winter and tries to relate them to the observed 11-yr and 88-yr solar activity with the sunspot number up to Solar Cycle 24.To explore plausible solar origins of the observed decadal-centennial timescales in the SSTs and climate variability in general,we design a simple one-dimensional dynamical system forced by an annual cycle modulated by a small-amplitude single-or multi-scale "solar activity." Results suggest that nonlinear harmonic and subharmonic resonance of the system to the forcing and period-doubling bifurcations are responsible for the dominant timescales in the system,including the 60-yr timescale that dominates the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.The dominant timescales in the forced system depend on the system’s parameter setting.Scale enhancement among the dominant response timescales may result in dramatic amplifications over a few decades and extreme values of the time series on various timescales.Three possible energy sources for such amplifications and extremes are proposed.Dynamical model results suggest that solar activity may play an important yet not well recognized role in the observed decadal-centennial climate variability.The atmospheric dynamical amplifying mechanism shown in Part Ⅰ and the nonlinear resonant and bifurcation mechanisms shown in Part Ⅱ help us to understand the solar source of the multi-scale climate change in the 20th century and the fact that different solar influenced dominant timescales for recurrent climate extremes for a given region or a parameter setting.Part Ⅱ also indicates that solar influences on climate cannot be linearly compared with non-cyclic or sporadic thermal forcings because they cannot exert their influences on climate in the same way as the sun does.     

Characteristics of Temperature Change in China over the Last 2000 years and Spatial Patterns of Dryness/Wetness during Cold and Warm Periods

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3℃ and 0.7℃, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56°± 0.42℃(100 yr)~(-1); however, temperatures recorded in the 20 th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20 th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China.