三个台风登陆我国 江南华南出现高温(2005年9月)

9月份,全国平均降水量比常年同期偏少.山东、陕西、江苏等地发生局地暴雨洪涝或地质灾害;西北东部旱情缓解,但东北及内蒙古的部分地区干旱持续,湖南、贵州、广西等地旱情有所发展.全国平均气温比常年同期偏高,为1951年以来历史同期最高值.9月中旬,江南、华南等地出现明显“秋老虎”天气.本月,有3个台风在我国登陆,给浙江、福建、海南、安徽、江西等地造成严重影响.     

我国中东部地区秋旱缓解 新疆、西藏局地遭受雪灾——2006年11月——

11月，全国平均气温为3．8℃，为1951年以来同期第三高值，比常年同期（2．1℃）偏高1．7℃；全国平均降水量为24．6mm，较常年同期（18．2mm）偏多。上半月我国中东部地区大范围秋旱持续或发展，下半月全国出现大范围降水天气，大部地区旱情缓和或解除。月内，中东部地区出现大雾天气；新疆、内蒙古、陕西、山西等地出现大到暴雪，局地受灾较重；广东、广西、贵州等省（区）局地发生雷雨大风、冰雹、龙卷等强对流天气。     

渭河汉江流域秋雨成灾台风龙王造成福建严重损失

10月份，全国平均降水量为33．2mm，比常年同期（37．4mm）偏少4．2mm。西北地区东南部和黄淮等地出现大面积秋雨天气，陕西、湖北遭受严重洪涝灾害；内蒙古、黑龙江和南方的部分地区旱情持续或发展。全国平均气温为10．4℃，比常年同期（9．6℃）偏高0．8℃，为1951年以来同期第三高值。     

淮河流域暴雨成灾台风海棠风大雨强--2005年7月--

7月份,全国平均月降水量为112.5mm,比常年同期偏少4.4mm.淮河流域及四川等地的部分地区降水明显偏多,遭受暴雨洪涝或泥石流、滑坡等地质灾害;西北东北部及内蒙古中西部、湖南等地旱情持续.全国月平均气温为22.2℃,较常年同期偏高0.8℃,为1951年以来历史同期第三高.月内,台风"海棠"和强热带风暴"天鹰"在我国登陆,其中台风"海棠"造成浙、闽损失严重;江南、华南等地多高温酷热天气;局地强对流天气发生频繁,内蒙古、山东等地受灾较重;甘肃中西部、内蒙古西部的部分地区出现强沙尘暴天气.     

山东广西秋旱严重云南南部暴雨成灾

10月,全国平均气温为11.7℃,为1951年以来历史同期最高值,比常年同期(9.6℃)偏高2.1℃;全国平均降水量为31.8mm,较常年同期(37.3mm)偏少.月内,我国东部地区出现大范围干旱,山东、广西等地旱情严重;云南、陕西、湖北等省的局部地区遭受暴雨洪涝或泥石流、滑坡等地质灾害,造成较大人员伤亡;我国中东部地区大雾天气较多;甘肃、贵州、辽宁等地发生雷击或大风、冰雹灾害.     

四川重庆干旱缓解部分地区低温冻害

9月，全国平均气温为16．6℃，比常年同期偏高0．6℃；全国平均降水量为54．0mm，比常年同期偏少12．2mm。月内，西南、江南旱区普降喜雨，旱情缓和或解除；北方部分地区遭受低温冷冻害，南方部分地区出现寒露风天气。全国19个省（市、区）的局部地区发生了不同程度的暴雨、雷雨大风和冰雹等灾害，陕西、四川、云南等省受灾较重。月初，华南、江南、西南地区东部等地出现高温天气。     

山东广西秋旱严重 云南南部暴雨成灾——2006年10月——

10月，全国平均气温为11．7℃，为1951年以来历史同期最高值，比常年同期（9．6℃）偏高2．1℃；全国平均降水量为31．8mm，较常年同期（37．3mm）偏少。月内，我国东部地区出现大范围干旱，山东、广西等地旱情严重；云南、陕西、湖北等省的局部地区遭受暴雨洪涝或泥石流、滑坡等地质灾害，造成较大人员伤亡；我国中东部地区大雾天气较多；甘肃、贵州、辽宁等地发生雷击或大风、冰雹灾害。     

四川重庆干旱缓解 部分地区低温冻害——2006年9月

9月,全国平均气温为16．6℃,比常年同期偏高0．6℃;全国平均降水量为540mm,比常年同期偏少12．2mm。月内,西南、江南旱区普降喜雨,旱情缓和或解除;北方部分地区遭受低温冷冻害,南方部分地区出现寒露风天气。全国19个省(市、区)的局部地区发生了不同程度的暴雨、雷雨大风和冰雹等灾害,陕西、四川、云南等省受灾较重。月初,华南、江南、西南地区东部等地出现高温天气。     

“派比安”、“桑美”重创华南、江南 重庆、四川遭遇特大伏旱(2006年8月)

8月，全国平均气温为21．7℃，比常年同期偏高1．3℃，为1951年以来同期最高值；全国平均降水量为83．6mm，比常年同期偏少，为1951年以来同期次小值。月内，台风派比安、超强台风桑美给粤、桂、浙、闽等省（区）造成重大人员伤亡和经济损失。重庆遭遇百年一遇特大伏旱、四川遭受1951年以来最严重伏旱，江南东北部等地旱情发展。山东、四川、吉林等地局地暴雨洪涝灾害较重；全国大部分省（市、区）不同程度地遭遇了雷雨大风、冰雹、     

降水偏多气温接近常年台风麦莎造成损失严重——2005年8月

8月份,全国平均降水量为148.2mm,比常年同期偏多18.6mm;全国平均气温为22.5℃,接近常年同期.台风麦莎和强热带风暴珊瑚在我国登陆,其中台风麦莎影响时间长、范围广,造成浙江、江苏、山东、上海等地严重损失.全国有23个省（市、区）发生不同程度的暴雨洪涝、泥石流、滑坡等灾害,其中辽宁、湖北、吉林等地受灾较重;西北东北部及内蒙古、黑龙江、湖南等地的部分地区旱情持续或发展;局地强对流天气发生频繁,山东、陕西等地遭受一定损失;黄淮、江淮、四川盆地及鄂、湘等地的部分地区出现阴雨寡照或低温天气.     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...