Ocean surface hidden structures in the Lofoten area of the Norwegian Sea

We investigate the structure of surface lateral mixing in the Lofoten area in the Norwegian Sea using surface velocity field derived from a 1/12^o reanalysis data. We compute a Lagrangian diagnostic based on the evolution of Finite Time Lyapunov Exponents (FTLEs) by advecting (backward in time) a large number of particles to quantify the hidden skeleton of different dynamical regions in the study area. By constructing maps of deterministic Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs), four dynamical regions are generally identified: (i) regions of maximal dynamical attraction along the west coast of Norway and Barents Sea Opening; (ii) area of quasi-prominent anticyclonic eddy located at the centre of Lofoten Basin (LB); (iii) mid-ocean system of the Mohn Ridge which separates the Atlantic and Arctic waters: (iv) areas expanded between shallow continental shelf and deep basins populated with multiscale structures. We further construct a climatology of LCSs and FTLE statistical distributions with 11-year of reanalysis data to investigate the seasonal variability of Lagrangian circulations and to classify further their dynamical properties. The FTLE and LCS analyses in the present study can contribute to better understand the key transport barriers to the fate of larval dispersion and ocean contaminants, and marine population connectivity.     

Laboratory simulation of the ocean currents in the Barents sea

A rotating laboratory model of the Barents Sea was forced by computed inflows of Atlantic Water and Arctic Surface Water for the period 1979–1984. Ad hoc tidal excursions over the shoals north of Bear Island and deep water production as a result of winter cooling and salt rejection in the eastern part of the basin were calibrated in the model. The high spatial resolution in the basin, which was 5 m in diameter, provided the basis for simulating several physical scales simultaneously. The simulated current features of interest include (1) the spreading of the Norwegian Coastal Current over Tromsøflaket, (2) a warm-core jet along the southeastern slope of the Svalbardbanken, which pushes the ice front far to the NE of Hopen Island, (3) the anticyclonic circulation around Sentralbanken, which drives Arctic Surface Water and ice far south in the eastern basin, (4) Norwegian Coastal Water flowing north across the Bear Island Channel, (5) deep water outflows north through the Franz-Victoria Trough and west through the Bear Island Channel, (6) the dependence of dense water accumulation and flushing on the variable Atlantic inflow, and (7) a robust, tidally driven circulation on the Svalbardbanken and around Bear Island. The Polar Front along the Svalbardbanken is fairly stationary, although its location is highly variable in the Sentralbanken area as a result of underflows (and winds—which were not simulated). The residence time for the Arctic Surface Water on Sentralbanken is about 8 months. Comparisons with available field measurements show a validation that is better than existing numerical model simulations.Entrainment of Arctic Surface Water on Svalbardbanken to the Atlantic inflow holds the Polar Front sharp and modifies the Atlantic Water as it flows to the Arctic Ocean. The simulated warm-core jet along this slope had a core speed up to 85 cm s⁻¹, whereas the best available current measurements near the core show surges up to about 30 cm s⁻¹. The simulated vorticity of the current is −0.33f, where f is the planetary vorticity. This can be provided from the conservation of potential vorticity. Both field data and laboratory simulations show that particles trapped in the Bear Island Current take 5–8 days to circle the island, which is 20 km in diameter. Except for surface confetti, agreement between model and field data was good for the southern flow east of Sentralbanken, but poor for the Murman Current. A model ‘wind’ caused a significant departure in this region and may be responsible for an exaggerated warm-core jet past Svalbardbanken.     

Moisture source for the Amazon Basin: a study of contrasting years

The regions where the divergence of vertically integrated water vapor flux, averaged over a season or a year, is positive (negative) are sources (sinks) of moisture for the atmosphere. An aerial river is defined as a stream of strong water vapor flux connecting a source and a sink. Moisture flux, its divergence, and sources and sinks over the tropics of South and Central America and the adjoining Atlantic Ocean are obtained for dry years and for wet years in the Amazon Basin. Results show that the Amazon Basin is a sink region for atmospheric moisture in all seasons and that there are two source regions for the moisture in the basin, one situated in the South Atlantic and the other in the North Atlantic, both located equator-ward of the respective subtropical high-pressure centers. The convergence of moisture increases over the Amazon Basin in austral summer, and at the same time it decreases in the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZs. Box model calculations reveal that the wet years, on the average, present about 55 % more moisture convergence than the dry years in the Amazon Basin. A reduction in the moisture inflow across the eastern and northern boundaries of the basin (at 45°W and at the Equator, respectively) and an increase in the outflow across the southern boundary (at 15°S) lead to dry conditions. The annual mean contribution of moisture convergence to the precipitation over the Amazon Basin is estimated to be 70 %. In the dry years, it lowers to around 50 %. The net convergence of water vapor flux over the basin is a good indicator of the wet or dry condition.     

Virtual water ‘flows’ of the Nile Basin, 1998–2004: A first approximation and implications for water security

This paper interprets an initial approximation of the ‘trade’ in virtual water of Nile Basin states in terms of national water security. The virtual water content (on the basis of weight) of select recorded crop and livestock trade between 1998 and 2004 is provided, and analysed for each state separately, for the Southern Nile and Eastern Nile states as groups, and for the basin states as a whole. To the extent that the datasets allow, the distinction between rainfed and irrigated production is maintained. During the period under study, Nile Basin states ‘exported’ about 14,000 Mm³ of primarily rainfed-derived virtual water outside of the basin annually and ‘imported’ roughly 41,000 Mm³/y. The ‘imports’ are considered to have played a key role in filling the freshwater deficits of Egypt and Sudan, and represent a third of the flow of the Nile River itself. Analysis of food trade within the basin shows that the equivalent of small rivers of water used to raise coffee and tea ‘flow’ from the highlands around Lake Victoria to Egypt and Sudan. Because the bulk of these ‘flows’ derive from rainfed agriculture, the virtual water ‘traded’ annually between the Nile Basin states is not considered to represent a significant demand on the water resources of the basin, nor to significantly remedy the freshwater deficits of the arid basin states. The importance of soil water and rainfed farming is in improving water security is highlighted. The limitations and merits of the inter-state basin-wide approach are also discussed. By highlighting the magnitude of water leaving and entering states in its virtual form, the approach obliges policy-makers to think beyond the basin and reconsider the concept of water security within broader political, environmental, social and economic forces.     

Spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric rivers and associated atmospheric parameters in the Euro-Atlantic region

We study the spatio-temporal variability of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and associated integrated water vapor and atmospheric parameters over the Euro-Atlantic region using long-term reanalysis datasets. Winds, temperature, and specific humidity at different pressure levels during 1979–2018 are used to study the water vapor transport integrated between 1000 and 300 hPa (IVT300) in mapping ARs. The intensity of ARs in the North Atlantic has been increasing in recent times (2009–2018) with large decadal variability and poleward shift (~ 5° towards the North) in landfall during 1999–2018. Though different reanalysis datasets show similar spatial patterns of IVT300 in mapping ARs, bias in specific humidity and wind components led to IVT300 mean bias of 50 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ in different reanalysis products compared to ERA5. The magnitude of winds and specific humidity in the lower atmosphere (below 750 hPa) dominates the total column water vapor and intensity of ARs in the North Atlantic. Reanalysis datasets in the central North Atlantic show an IVT300 standard deviation of 200 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ which is around 33% of the ARs climatology (~ 600 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹). Though ARs have a higher frequency of landfalling over Western Europe in winter half-year, the intensity of IVT300 in winter ARs is 3% lower than the annual mean. The lower frequency of ARs in the summer half-year shows 3% higher IVT300 than the annual mean. While ARs in the North Atlantic show a strong decadal change in frequency and path, the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian blocking on the location of landfall of ARs are significant. Furthermore, there is a strong latitudinal dependence of the source of moisture flux in the open ocean, contributing to the formation and strengthening ARs.

     

Evidence for Nearly Complete Decoupling of Very Stable Nocturnal Boundary Layer Overland

Concentrations of ²²²Rn at 0.1 m and 6.5 m height above ground level and ²²²Rn flux density were measured during nights characterized by strong cooling, light winds and clear sky conditions in the Carpathian Basin in Hungary. A very stable boundary layer (vSBL) formed on 14 nights between 15 August and 3 September 2009. On 12 nights, an estimated 72% (s.d. 20%) of ²²²Rn emitted from the surface since sunset was retained within the lowest 6.5 m above the ground until sunrise the following morning. On two nights an intermittent increase in wind speed at 9.4 m height was followed by a rise in temperature at 2.0 m height, indicating a larger atmospheric motion that resulted in ²²²Rn at 0.1 m around sunrise being the same as around the preceding sunset. It does not seem to be rare in a large continental basin for a vSBL to be nearly completely decoupled from the atmosphere above for the entire period from sunset to sunrise.     

Temporal characteristics and fog water collection during summer in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain)

The study of fog dynamics in the island of Tenerife began in 1993 at six sites. The analysis of the relationship between fog and several meteorological parameters was conducted at the site located at Anaga. Anaga is located at the summit of a mountain range, at an altitude of 842 m and 3.5 km away from the north-western coastline of the island. The study uses hourly data of the three summer months (June, July and August) that were collected over a period of nine years — from 1996 to 2005. The mean summer (June–August) rainfall was found to be 21.2 mm whilst the total volume of fog water collected was 879.9 l m^− 2; the daily average fog water collection was 9.5 l m^− 2 day^− 1, and the hourly average about 0.4 l m^− 2 h^− 1. Although these amounts were recorded with wind speeds of between 8 and 12 m s^− 1, the correlation between water collected and wind speed is not statistically significant. In spite of this, the volume of fog water collected and wind speed showed a very distinct daily behavioural pattern, their frequency and speed reaching their minimum at 12 a.m. and their maximum from 7 p.m. to 8 a.m. GMT. The importance of this research is that it shows that the fog in the Canary Islands occurs more frequently and makes a more significant contribution to the growth of vegetation in the summer (the dry season) than in the winter, when fog accompanies rainfall.     

Thermal structure and circulation in the great lakes

Abstract

Large enough to include many oceanic phenomena, the Laurentian Great Lakes are more accurately described as inland seas. With the exception of the shallow Western Basin of Lake Erie, the lakes are thermally stratified in summer, homogeneous in winter, with average temperatures passing through the temperature of maximum density of fresh water (4°C) in both the spring and the fall. The circulation is mainly powered by the wind but is strongly modified by thermal stratification and basin geometry. Effects of the earth's rotation are present in all large‐scale flows. Current speeds are typically 10 cm s^?1; they are too small, with rare exceptions, to present difficulties to navigation but a knowledge of the patterns of water movement is essential for interpreting the behaviour of these valuable lakes as complex ecosystems. This paper will review more than a century of physical study of the Great Lakes.     

Prediction of British summer river flows using winter predictors

Summary Seasonal predictions of river flow provide managers with the opportunity to plan the use of water resources in advance. Summer (June–August) river flows for the period 1961–2002 in 20 catchments in Great Britain were grouped into two clusters, largely representing the southeast and the northwest of Britain. The cluster average summer river flows were predicted by linear regression using the previous winter’s (December–February) river flow, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), North American land air temperature and global airflow indices as potential predictors.Separate regression equations were derived for the northwest and southeast regions. Both equations contain eight predictors. Predictors for the southeast are shifted somewhat southward compared to the predictors for the northwest. The most influential predictors are the temperature difference between the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Sea for the northwest and the SST in the central part of the subtropical gyre in the North Atlantic (Central Gyre) for the southeast.The regression equations fitted to all data explain 55% and 61% of the variance for the northwest and southeast regions, respectively. The corresponding cross-validation correlations between the predicted and observed series are 0.54 and 0.62. The models are fairly skilful at avoiding the false positive or negative prediction of extremes, but less skilled at predicting medium sized river flows.     

Using the mean pressure gradient and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to estimate the strength of the South Atlantic Anticyclone

A new methodology is proposed to estimate the strength of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA), using the gridded sea level pressure (SLP) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis data. The top quartile (1017.3 hPa) of the SLP data was found a reasonable criterion to delimit the SAA area. Consequently, we defined the SAA area as the quadrangle containing 80% of the observations with pressure >1017.3 hPa. In this quadrangle, an area weighted pressure gradient (AWPG) was computed for the whole area and for the north–south and west–east halves. When compared with maximum pressure, the AWPG showed a better correlation with the significant wave height (SWH) and wind speed (WS) derived from altimetry. The mean value of the AWPG was 8 × 10⁻⁴ Pa/m, with representative values of 9.1 × 10⁻⁴ Pa/m and 7.4 × 10⁻⁴ Pa/m for austral winter and summer, respectively. The phase difference between the monthly AWPG in the north and south sub-quadrangles accounts for the evolution of the spatial pattern of the anticyclone throughout a year. This quantitative approach proved to be a useful estimate of the strength of South Atlantic Anticyclone. Further improvements of this approach are discussed.     

The possible role of Brazilian promontory in Little Ice Age

The Gulf Stream, one of the strongest currents in the world, transports approximately 31 Sv of water (Kelly and Gille, 1990, Baringer and Larsen, 2001, Leaman et al., 1995) and 1.3 × 10¹⁵ W (Larsen, 1992) of heat into the Atlantic Ocean, and warms the vast European continent. Thus any change of the Gulf Stream could lead to the climate change in the European continent, and even worldwide (Bryden et al., 2005). Past studies have revealed a diminished Gulf Stream and oceanic heat transport that was possibly associated with a southward migration of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and may have contributed to Little Ice Age (AD ∼1200 to 1850) in the North Atlantic (Lund et al., 2006). However, the causations of the Gulf Stream weakening due to the southward migration of the ITCZ remain uncertain. Here we use satellite observation data and employ a model (oceanic general circulation model – OGCM) to demonstrate that the Brazilian promontory in the east coast of South America may have played a crucial role in allocating the equatorial currents, while the mean position of the equatorial currents migrates between northern and southern hemisphere in the Atlantic Ocean. Northward migrations of the equatorial currents in the Atlantic Ocean have little influence on the Gulf Stream. Nevertheless, southward migrations, especially abrupt large southward migrations of the equatorial currents, can lead to the increase of the Brazil Current and the significant decrease of the North Brazil Current, in turn the weakening of the Gulf Stream. The results from the model simulations suggest the mean position of the equatorial currents in the Atlantic Ocean shifted at least 180–260 km southwards of its present-day position during the Little Ice Age based on the calculations of simple linear equations and the OGCM simulations.     

1961-2009年辽河流域气候变化特征及其对水资源的影响

辽河流域是我国七大流域之一,长期以来一直存在水资源严重不足的问题。采用1961-2009年辽河流域境内水文、气象观测数据,研究气象、水文要素历史变化特征,并采用同期和滞后相关分析,建立气象要素与水文要素的最优相关关系。结果表明：辽河流域气候变暖明显,增温幅度远高于全球和中国的同期增温幅度;辽河流域降水量增减趋势不明显,总体上为略减少趋势,但存在明显的少-多-少-多-少5个阶段性变化。辽河流域蒸发量为略减少趋势,春季、夏季是蒸发量较大季节;辽河流域近50年来径流量为减少趋势,经历了偏多-偏少-偏多-偏少4个阶段的变化,最近的1996-2009年经历了年径流量最少阶段,平均年径流量仅为16.2亿 m³,只达到多年平均径流量的58 %、径流量最多年代的32 %。7月、8月是流量最为集中的月份,2个月流量就占到全年的50.24 %,超过全年的一半;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系。在年尺度,径流量与铁岭、法库等周边地区相关系数基本达到0.6左右;在日尺度,日降水量与降水发生后第二日流量相关程度最好,在所有等级上两者相关系数均在0.7以上,在日降水量大于等于25 mm等级上,相关系数最高可达到0.85。     

Summer interactions between weather regimes and surface ocean in the North-Atlantic region

This study aims at understanding the summer ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Atlantic European region on intraseasonal timescales. The CNRMOM1d ocean model is forced with ERA40 (ECMWF Re-Analysis) surface fluxes with a 1-h frequency in solar heat flux (6 h for the other forcing fields) over the 1959–2001 period. The model has 124 vertical levels with a vertical resolution of 1 m near the surface and 500 m at the bottom. This ocean forced experiment is used to assess the impact of the North Atlantic weather regimes on the surface ocean. Composites of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with each weather regime are computed and the mechanisms explaining these anomalies are investigated. Then, the SST anomalies related to each weather regime in the ocean-forced experiment are prescribed to the ARPEGE Atmosphere General Circulation Model. We show that the interaction with the surface ocean induces a positive feedback on the persistence of the Blocking regime, a negative feedback on the persistence of the NAO-regime and favours the transition from the Atlantic Ridge regime to the NAO-regime and from the Atlantic Low regime toward the Blocking regime.     

A 1600-year history of the Labrador Current off Nova Scotia

A multicore from Emerald Basin, on the continental margin off Nova Scotia, has a modern ¹⁴C age at the top, and other ¹⁴C dates indicate a linear sedimentation rate of ~30 cm/ka to 1600 calendar years BP. This rate is great enough to record century-to-millennial scale changes in the surface and deep (~250 m) waters in the basin that are influenced by the Labrador Current. We applied five proxies for seawater temperature changes to the sediments of Emerald Basin, including the percent abundance and the oxygen isotope ratio (d ¹⁸O) of the polar planktonic foraminifer N. pachyderma (s.), the unsaturation ratio of alkenones (U ^k' ₃₇) produced by prymnesiophyte phytoplankton, and the d ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca of benthic foraminifera. All five proxies indicate the ocean warmed suddenly sometime in the past 150 years or so. The exact timing of this event is uncertain because ¹⁴C dating is inaccurate in recent centuries, but this abrupt warming probably correlates with widespread evidence for warming in the Arctic in the nineteenth century. Because the Canadian Archipelago is one of the two main sources for the Labrador Current, warming and melting of ice caps in that region may have affected Labrador Current properties. Before this recent warming, sea surface temperature was continually lower by 1–2 °C, and bottom water was colder by about 6 °C in Emerald Basin. These results suggest that there was no Medieval Warm Period in the coastal waters off Nova Scotia. Because there is also no evidence of medieval warming in the Canadian archipelago, it seems likely that coastal waters from Baffin Bay to at least as far south as Nova Scotia were continually cold for ~1500 of the past 1600 years.     

On the seesaw in interannual variability of upper ocean heat advection between the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and the Nordic Seas

In this study we investigate the interannual variability of the heat content of the upper North Atlantic and the main factors, which influence the observed variability: the ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and the ocean heat transport. The data from the combined in situ and satellite dataset ARMOR-3D, and from the ocean reanalyzes ORAS5 and SODA3 (two versions) show a similar decadal interannual variability of the heat content, as well as of oceanic heat transports the study regions, though the mean values may differ. The observed variations are linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). The current velocity of the North Atlantic, East Greenland and Labrador currents of the Subpolar Gyre increases with the NAOI, but the velocity of the Irminger and West Greenland currents decreases. This forms a seesaw of heat advection by the North Atlantic Current between the Subpolar Gyre and Nordic Seas. In the Subpolar gyre during the periods of high NAOI, this negative anomaly of the oceanic heat convergence adds to the intensified sea-surface heat release to the atmosphere, together effectively reducing the upper ocean heat content. The upper ocean heat content of the Norwegian Sea shows practically no link to the NAOI, in spite of a somewhat larger oceanic heat flux across its southern boundary linked to high NAOI.     

Sensitivity of the Himalayan Hydrology to Land-Use and Climatic Changes

Land-use and climatic changes are ofmajor concerns in the Himalayan region because oftheir potential impacts on a predominantlyagriculture-based economy and a regional hydrologydominated by the monsoons. Such concerns are notlimited to any particular basin but exist throughoutthe region including the downstream plains. As arepresentative basin of the Himalayas, the Kosi Basin(54,000 km²) located in the mountainous area ofthe central Himalayan region was selected as a studyarea. We used water balance and distributeddeterministic modeling approaches to analyze thehydrologic sensitivity of the basin to projectedland-use, and potential climate change scenarios.Runoff increase was higher than precipitation increasein all the potential precipitation change scenariosapplying contemporary temperature. The scenario ofcontemporary precipitation and a rise in temperatureof 4 °C caused a decrease in runoff bytwo to eight percent depending upon the areasconsidered and models used. In the absence of climaticchange, the results from a distributed water balancemodel applied in the humid south of the basinindicated a reduction in runoff by 1.3% in thescenario of maximum increase in forest areas below4,000 m.     

The origin of sub-surface source waters define the sea–air flux of methane in the Mauritanian Upwelling,NW Africa

Concentrations and flux densities of methane were determined during a Lagrangian study of an advective filament in the permanent upwelling region off western Mauritania. Newly upwelled waters were dominated by the presence of North Atlantic Central Water and surface CH₄ concentrations of 2.2 ± 0.3 nmol L⁻¹ were largely in equilibrium with atmospheric values, with surface saturations of 101.7 ± 14%. As the upwelling filament aged and was advected offshore, CH₄ enriched South Atlantic Central Water from intermediate depths of 100–350 m was entrained into the surface mixed layer of the filament following intense mixing associated with the shelf break. Surface saturations increased to 198.9 ± 15% and flux densities increased from a mean value over the shelf of 2.0 ± 1.1 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹ to a maximum of 22.6 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹. Annual CH₄ emissions for this persistent filament were estimated at 0.77 ± 0.64 Gg which equates to a maximum of 0.35% of the global oceanic budget. This raises the known outgassing intensity of this area and highlights the importance of advecting filaments from upwelling waters as efficient vehicles for air-sea exchange.     

Glacial termination: sensitivity to orbital and CO2 forcing in a coupled climate system model

 To study glacial termination and related feedback mechanisms, a continental ice dynamics model is globally and asynchronously coupled to a physical climate (atmosphere-ocean-sea ice) model. The model performs well under present-day, 11 kaBP (thousand years before present) and 21 kaBP perpetual forcing. To address the ice-sheet response under the effects of both perpetual orbital and CO₂ forcing, sensitivity experiments are conducted with two different orbital configurations (11 kaBP and 21 kaBP) and two different atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (200 ppmv and 280 ppmv). This study reveals that, although both orbital and CO₂ forcing have an impact on ice-sheet maintenance and deglacial processes, and although neither acting alone is sufficient to lead to complete deglaciation, orbital forcing seems to be more important. The CO₂ forcing has a large impact on climate, not uniformly or zonally over the globe, but concentrated over the continents adjacent to the North Atlantic. The effect of increased CO₂ (from 200 ppmv to 280 ppmv) on surface air temperature has its peak there in winter associated with a reduction in sea-ice extent in the northern North Atlantic. These changes are accompanied by an enhancement in the intensity of the meridional overturning and poleward ocean heat transport in the North Atlantic. On the other hand, the effect of orbital forcing (from 21 kaBP to 11 kaBP) has its peak in summer. Since the summer temperature, rather than winter temperature, is found to be dominant for the ice-sheet mass balance, orbital forcing has a larger effect than CO₂ forcing in deglaciation. Warm winter sea surface temperature arising from increased CO₂ during the deglaciation contributes to ice-sheet nourishment (negative feedback for ice-sheet retreat) through slightly enhanced precipitation. However, the precipitation effect is totally overwhelmed by the temperature effect. Our results suggest that the last deglaciation was initiated through increasing summer insolation with CO₂ providing a powerful feedback. Received: 22 February 2000 / Accepted: 17 September 2000     

四川盆地夏季水汽输送特征及其对旱涝的影响

利用1981—2000年夏季观测资料,分析了四川盆地夏季平均的水汽输送状况及四川盆地典型旱涝年的水汽输送差异特征,并在此基础上,初步分析了四川盆地旱涝异常的大气环流背景。结果表明:四川盆地的夏季水汽主要来源于青藏高原、孟加拉湾及南海地区。当西太平洋副热带高压偏北偏西时,其外侧东南风可以把南海水汽带到盆地西部,孟加拉湾及青藏高原水汽受到阻挡被迫停留在盆地西部,形成了盆地西部异常的水汽辐合,东部异常的水汽辐散,由此导致四川盆地西涝东旱。反之,当西太平洋副热带高压偏南偏东时,其西南侧的南海水汽不能到达盆地西部,只能到达盆地东南部,而孟加拉湾及青藏高原水汽则可以进入盆地东部,在盆地东部形成异常的水汽辐合,在西部形成异常的水汽辐散,造成四川盆地西旱东涝。     

基于时空统计降尺度的淮河流域夏季分月降水概率预测

针对淮河流域水资源短缺、洪涝、干旱并存的问题,基于国家气候中心第二代季节气候模式的集合回报数据集(1991—2014年),建立时空相结合的统计降尺度模型,提前1—3个月预测该流域夏季分月降水,应用ROC(relative operating characteristics)评分评估比较了不同集合预测方案的预测技巧。交叉检验结果表明,样本数取18、20、22、28时,集合预测方案对3、4、5月三个起报时次预测的夏季各月降水技巧预测均高于模式预测技巧。2015—2017年的独立样本检验进一步表明该统计降尺度模型能够明显降低3月、5月起报的6月和8月的降水预测偏差。认为可尝试将该降尺度方法应用于淮河流域夏季降水预测及进一步的流域水文预测。