提高探空气球施放高度浅谈

探空气球施放高度是探空工作质量考核的重要内容之一。影响探空气球施放高度的因素,主要有气球本身的质量、气球的存放条件和天气条件。除此之外,在同等条件下,还与气球的充气速度和充气的多少有一定关系。如何提高施放高度,一直是探空员     

全自动无线数码遥控探空气球同步施放系统设计

文章围绕探空气球与电脑记录不易同步和气球人工施放费时、费力、容易出事故等问题,开展了技术攻关研究,开发了相应的气球施放无线数码遥控系统,有效地解决了业务工作中存在的问题,降低工作强度,促进业务质量的提高。     

施放氢气球安全管理问题和对策初探

自《通用航空飞行管制条例》、《施放气球管理办法》以及《贵阳市施放气球安全管理规定》发布实施以来,贵阳市各级气象部门对其进行了认真的贯彻落实,但社会上很多单位或个人在利用氢气球进行庆典活动时,仍然存在着严重的安全隐患。主要表现在施放过程中由于操作不当引起爆炸或气球脱落升空等,从而对航空飞行安全、公众场所人民生命财产及施放气球作业人员安全构成严重威胁,造成人员及财产损失,甚至还会影响到航空飞行。该文结合工作实际,初步探讨了施放气球安全管理中存在的问题,并提出几点建议和措施。     

探空气球施放筒设计

探空气球的充灌和施放是高空气象观测工作的重要组成部分.目前高空观测中雷达跟踪探空仪、探空信号接收和数据处理都已经实现自动化,只有探空气球的充灌和施放是人工操作,气球充灌氢气有一定危险性,且至少需要一个观测员来完成施放气球工作.该文在分析探空气球充灌和施放各环节工作的基础上,介绍了一种探空气球施放筒的设计方案,以及在业务试验中存在的问题和改进方法,为高空气象观测系统的全程自动化创造条件.     

NOAA智能探测气球能收集到更多资料

NOAA的研究气球——拉格朗日智能气球（Lagrangian Smart Balloons）已经成为一种可行、可靠的实时大气状况资料源。这种气球可以全天候施放，可以在飓风风力中搜集各种资料。这种智能探测气球属于NOAA的第4代探测气球，所提供的资料包括温度、降水、气压、湿度、太阳辐射、红外（IR）地表温度和臭氧。该气球可以装载全球定位卫星（Global Positioning Satellite）应答系统，研究人员可以跟踪气球的位置、速度、高度和飞行路线。该探测气球的电源为可充电锂电池，由安装在气球顶部的弹性太阳能蓄电池供电，所以该气球具有令球范围的、气球与地面控制人员间的双向通信的能力。     

结合第8届国际探空仪系统比对试验探讨国产气球施放高度

根据阳江探空站高空气象探测用750g气象气球施放的实际高度的现状,结合中国大探中心组织国产GPS探空仪在阳江用国产2000g气象气球比对试验时施放的高度以及广东阳江第8届国际探空仪系统比对期间施放的实际高度,探讨雨天和高空相对湿度较大的气象条件下对国产气象气球施放高度的影响。结果显示,雨天或高空相对湿度较大时,对国产现有的气象气球施放的高度存在较大的影响。研究表明,解决了国产气象气球的球皮防雨、防潮问题,很大程度上解决了国产气象气球施放高度不稳定的难题。     

陕西省升空氢气球技术操作规范

1　总则1 .1　为规范升空氢气球充灌、悬挂、施放的技术操作 ,保障国家和人民的生命与财产安全 ,依据《陕西省气象条例》和有关规定 ,制定本规范。1 .2　本规范适用于庆典、宣传、广告活动中升空氢气球的充灌、悬挂、施放及其所使用氢气的运输、贮存等技术操作 ,其他升空气球的管理按国家有关规定执行。1 .3　充灌、悬挂、施放升空氢气球应坚持安全第一、预防为主的方针 ,坚持精心组织、规范操作、严防事故、确保安全的原则。1 .4　四级风以上及雷电天气禁止升空氢气球的充灌、悬挂、施放作业 ;已经作业的 ,应立即采取措施停止作业。1 .5　…     

怎样才能使气球放得更高

高空探测是指利用遥测和遥感手段进行从地面到对流层、平流层、中间大气层的温度、气压、湿度和风向风速的探测,我国目前普遍使用的常规高空探测方法是气球携带探空仪升空探测,为了获取更多的高空气象资料,就要求尽量提高探测过程的气球施放高度。影响气球施放高度的因素很多,包括当时的天气状况、雷达运行的可靠性、探空仪(含回答器、回答器电池)质量、探空气球的质量和充灌过程的操作方法等等。在雷达、探空仪和气球质量均相对有保证的情况下,探空业务人员在气球充灌过程的操作方法就成了影响气球施放高度的主要因素。笔者在从事高空探测…     

探空球的充灌与施放高度

探空球的充灌与施放高度在探空专业中,中国气象局有６项工作指标,其中一条就是要求施放高度。气球的施放高度与充气量的多少密切相关。气球是靠空气中的浮力上升的。由于氢气和空气间的密度差异,气球中充的氢气越多,球体就越大,获得的浮力就越大,上升的速度就越大。...     

浅析高空气象观测气球的选用

该文通过分析高空气象观测业务中所使用的气球颜色和天气情况的运用关系,介绍气球的使用技巧及如何判断球皮的质量好坏和保管方法,可以有效地提高高空气象观测气球施放高度及业务质量。     

The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study

This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for best guess seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at.The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the best guess changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios.For the River Rhine best guess changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. Best guess scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in worst case scenarios used by the Dutch water management authorities.     

雪崩、分形与雷暴放电中强闪的自组织演化

强调了雪崩、分形与远离平衡系统自组织演化的联系。利用2003年夏季青藏高原中部地区雷暴放电的地面电场野外观测资料,基于近年来发展的分形及多重分形分析中的去势涨落分析(detrend-ed fluctuation analysis,DFA)方法,对强闪前电场信号的关联及多重分形特征进行了分析,发现强放电前过程具有明显的分形和多重分形特征,多重分形谱与推广的二项倍增串级模式符合。分析在一定程度上表明了雷暴强放电发生的可能的自组织演化性。     

开滦苯加氢精制工程环境风险评价

以某苯加氢精制工程为例,探讨了焦化行业环境风险评价方法;利用该项目所在地近3 a地面常规气象观测资料,分析了当地的污染气象特征;采用风险识别、源项分析、后果计算、风险评价等环境风险评价技术方法,筛选出主要风险因子并进行风险预测,采用多烟团模式并考虑气象因素进行风险计算。结果表明:污染事故发生后,苯类物质的地面浓度最大值为3 214 mg/m3,位于距离事故发生源WNW方向约50 m处超标1 339倍,由此可知近距离污染严重;高浓度污染物主要集中在污染源附近,随着距离的延长,污染物浓度不断向下风向扩散,超标范围在6 km内。利用简化分析法,定量给出此项工程的最大可信事故风险值为7.6×10-6/a,小于化工行业风险值8.33×10-5/a,此工程风险值水平与同行业比较在可接受的范围内。     

开滦苯加氢精制工程环境风险评价

以某苯加氢精制工程为例,探讨了焦化行业环境风险评价方法;利用该项目所在地近3 a地面常规气象观测资料,分析了当地的污染气象特征;采用风险识别、源项分析、后果计算、风险评价等环境风险评价技术方法,筛选出主要风险因子并进行风险预测,采用多烟团模式并考虑气象因素进行风险计算。结果表明：污染事故发生后,苯类物质的地面浓度最大值为3 214 mg/m^3,位于距离事故发生源WNW方向约50 m处超标1 339倍,由此可知近距离污染严重;高浓度污染物主要集中在污染源附近,随着距离的延长,污染物浓度不断向下风向扩散,超标范围在6 km内。利用简化分析法,定量给出此项工程的最大可信事故风险值为7.6×10^-6/a,小于化工行业风险值8.33×10^-5/a,此工程风险值水平与同行业比较在可接受的范围内。     

Interaction between adjacent lightning discharges in clouds

Using a 3D lightning radiation source locating system (LLS), three pairs of associated lightning discharges (two or more adjacent lightning discharges following an arbitrary rule that their space-gap was less than 10 km and their time-gap was less than 800 ms) were observed, and the interaction between associated lightning discharges was analyzed. All these three pairs of associated lightning discharges were found to involve three or more charge regions (the ground was considered as a special charge region). Moreover, at least one charge region involved two lightning discharges per pair of associated lightning discharges. Identified from electric field changes, the subsequent lightning discharges were suppressed by the prior lightning discharges. However, it is possible that the prior lightning discharge provided a remaining discharge channel to facilitate the subsequent lightning discharge. The third case provided evidence of this possibility. Together, the results suggested that, if the charges in the main negative charge region can be consumed using artificial lightning above the main negative charge regions, lightning accidents on the ground could be greatly reduced, on the condition that the height of the main negative charge region and the charge intensity of the lower positive charge region are suitable.     

环氧乙烷储运系统环境风险预测与预防措施

以某化工厂环氧乙烷储运系统发生环境风险事故为例,通过风险识别和源项分析,利用有关技术导则中推荐的模式对发生环境风险事故的后果进行预测,得出环氧乙烷储运系统发生泄漏或爆炸时可能造成轻伤、重伤及死亡影响范围的预测结果;同时从风险防范措施和应急预案两方面对环氧乙烷储运系统提出了防范措施,主要包括环氧乙烷的应急处理措施、围堰及事故池的设置、其他风险防范措施要求、运输风险防范措施和环境风险事故应急预案。通过采取以上防范措施,不仅可以最大程度地降低环氧乙烷储运系统环境风险事故发生的概率,而且可以将环境风险事故发生后对环境可能造成的不良影响降至最低。     

Estimation of impact of climate change on the peak discharge probability of the river Rhine

RHINEFLOW is a GIS based water balance model that has been developed to study the changes in the water balance compartments of the river Rhine basin on a monthly time basis. The model has been designed to study the sensitivity of the Rhine discharge to a climate change. The calculated discharge has been calibrated and validated on the period 1956 to 1980. For this period the model efficiency of RHINEFLOW is between 0.74 and 0.81 both for the entire Rhine and for its tributaries. Also calculated values for variations in other compartments, e.g. snow storage and actual evapotranspiration, were in good agreement with the measured values.Since a high correlation between monthly discharge and peak discharge was found for the period 1900–1980 The RHINEFLOW model is used to assess the probability of exceedence for discharge peaks under possible future climate conditions.The probabilities of exceedence were calculated from the conditional probabilities of peak discharges for a series of 15 classes of monthly discharges. Comparison of a calculated frequency distribution of high discharge peaks with observed peaks in a test series showed that the method performs well.Scenarios for temperature changes between 0 °C and plus 4 °C and precipitation changes between plus 20% and minus 20% have been applied. Within this range flood frequencies are more sensitive for a precipitation change than for a temperature change. The present two-year return period peak flow (6500–7000 m³/s) decreases by about 6% due to a temperature rise of 4 °C; a precipitation decrease of 20% leads to 30% lower two-year peaks whilst 20% precipitation increase raises them by approximately 30%.Application of a Business As Usual (BAU) and an Accelerated Policy (AP) climate scenario resulted in a significant increase in probability of peak flows for the BAU scenario, while for the AP scenario no significant change could be found. Due to sampling errors, accurate estimations of recurrence times of discharge peaks7000 m³/s require a longer sampling time series than 90 years. For management purposes the method can be applied to estimate changes of probabilities of events with a relatively long recurrence time.     

Role of Education and Training in Agricultural Meteorology to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Variability

Agricultural meteorologists are concerned with many operational aspects of the effects of climate on crop production, livestock, and natural resource management. For them to continue to make a contribution to the economy of a country they must continually sharpen their skills and remain updated on the latest available information. Training should include a variety of skills, including transferable skills (e.g. communication, numeracy), professional skills (including cognitive skills) and information technology skills. Problem-based learning can be used to promote critical thinking, decision making and analytical skills. More use should be made of computer-aided learning for agricultural meteorologists’ in-service training. In particular, the Internet or CDs could be used to disseminate specific recently developed techniques and applications to improve the understanding of the variability in climate and its effect on agricultural production and natural resource management. Examples that can address the vulnerability of farmers include crop–climate matching, the use of indices, crop modelling and risk assessment together with seasonal outlooks. A strategy needs to be formulated to address these needs and implement changes in the education and training of agricultural meteorologists. These training needs must be constantly updated to meet the changing demands of new technology to cope with climate change and climate variability.     

基于蒙特卡罗方法的广州港航行风险评估

为了解不同等级能见度下的广州港航行风险特征,将不同能见度下定性的广州港航行风险定量化,以期增强广州港航行事故风险控制能力,提高广州港资源利用率。通过分析不同能见度下广州港船舶出现事故的频率以及造成后果的严重性,对二者进行概率统计后,分别对3种等级能见度下的事故数据进行蒙特卡罗仿真,有效增加了广州港航行事故的数据样本,得出3种等级能见度下的仿真结果,进而得到能见度在0—12 km内的风险分布特征。结果表明：采用基于蒙特卡罗仿真方法的概率分布模型能有效地解决航行风险小样本问题,风险结果可靠。风险在能见度不良(Vis≤5 km)时最低,良好(Vis≥10 km)时次之;受限(5 km <Vis < 10 km)时最高,近似为另外两种情况的1.7—2.4倍左右。可见该方法可以很好地评估能见度在0—12 km内的广州港航行风险,为划定风险等级标准提供参考。     

浅议雷击事故鉴定的规范化

通过对雷击事故鉴定主体、鉴定程序、鉴定结论的探讨，阐明雷击事故鉴定的重要性，以使雷击事故鉴定更规范、科学、准确。