Projections of SO2, NOx and carbonaceous aerosols emissions in Asia

Estimates of Asian emissions of air pollutants and carbonaceous aerosols and their mid-term projections have been changing significantly in the last years. The remote sensing community has shown that increase in NO _x in Central East Asia is much stronger than any of the emission inventories or projections indicated so far. A number of studies reviewing older estimates appeared. Here, we review the key contributions and compare them to the most recent results of the GAINS model application for Asia and to the SRES projections used in the IPPC work. The recent projections indicate that the growth of emissions of SO₂ in Asia should slow down significantly towards 2010 or even stabilize at the current level. For NO _x , however, further growth is projected although it will be most likely slower that in the last decade, owing to introduction of measures in transport. Emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon and organic carbon) are expected to decline after 2010, largely due to reduced use of biofuels in residential sector and efficiency improvements. The estimates of these emissions are burdened with significantly larger uncertainties than SO₂ and NO _x ; even for the year 2000 the differences in estimates between studies are up to a factor of 2.     

Reconciliation of excess 14C-constrained global CO2 piston velocity estimates

Oceanic excess radiocarbon data is widely used as a constraint for air–sea gas exchange. However, recent estimates of the global mean piston velocity  〈 k 〉  from Naegler et al., Krakauer et al., Sweeney et al. and Müller et al. differ substantially despite the fact that they all are based on excess radiocarbon data from the GLODAP data base. Here I show that these estimates of  〈 k 〉  can be reconciled if first, the changing oceanic radiocarbon inventory due to net uptake of CO₂ is taken into account; second, if realistic reconstructions of sea surface  Δ¹⁴C  are used and third, if  〈 k 〉  is consistently reported with or without normalization to a Schmidt number of 660. These corrections applied, unnormalized estimates of  〈 k 〉  from these studies range between 15.1 and 18.2 cm h⁻¹. However, none of these estimates can be regarded as the only correct value for  〈 k 〉  . I thus propose to use the 'average' of the corrected values of  〈 k 〉  presented here (16.5 ± 3.2 cm h⁻¹) as the best available estimate of the global mean unnormalized piston velocity  〈 k 〉  , resulting in a gross ocean-to-atmosphere CO₂ flux of 76 ± 15 PgC yr⁻¹ for the mid-1990s.