古气候研究进展

总结回顾了二十年来古气候研究的进展,着重揭示古气候变化的事实.共分析了10个问题:(1)威尔逊旋回,(2)冰河时代,(3)生物大灭绝,(4)人类走出非洲,(5)第四纪冰期一间冰期旋回,(6)下一个冰期何时到来,(7)末次冰期冰盛期,(8)冰期气候的不稳定性,(9)全新世气候的不稳定性,(10)全新世气候变化趋势.     

基于气压区之动能及力能而得之天气预报定则

(一)引论天气预报,基於数学原则,在先已有列却逊氏之专著,自极面学说发达以来,挪威盖为今日气象学之中心地。柏脱逊氏,(SverrePetterssen)挪威气象学者中之长於天气预报者也,(现在美国加州理工大学California Instiute of Technology讲学)於一九三三年发表气压区之动能及力能在天气预报方面之运用,美人克列克博士(Dr.Irving P.Krick)又推演之以为天气预报定则,(尚     

A Review of Atmospheric Electricity Research in China from 2019 to 2022

Atmospheric electricity is composed of a series of electric phenomena in the atmosphere. Significant advances in atmospheric electricity research conducted in China have been achieved in recent years. In this paper, the research progress on atmospheric electricity achieved in China during 2019–22 is reviewed focusing on the following aspects:(1) lightning detection and location techniques,(2) thunderstorm electricity,(3) lightning forecasting methods and techniques,(4)physical processes of light...     

An ensemble forecast of the South China Sea monsoon

1.IntroductionThispaperexploresanensembleforecaststrategyforthelarge--scaletropicalpredictionproblem.Thisisgeneralizedfromarecentstudyontheuseofempiricalorthogonalfunction(EOF)--basedperturbationsforhurricanetrackensembleforecasts,(ZhangandKrishnamur...     

美国第11届气候诊断年会

本文综合介绍了美国第11届气候诊断会议,着重讨论以下6个问题:(1)全球温度变化趋势,(2)ENSO系统,(3)降水变率与干旱,(4)陆面干湿的作用,(5)30—60天低频振荡,(6)长期预报。     

“北冕”后期路径左折和强度突然加强成因分析

利用T213、ECMWF数值预报资料和热带气旋历史资料,对0809号强热带风暴"北冕"路径和强度变化特征进行分析,表明:"北冕"登陆后路径发生左折进入北部湾的主要原因是,(1)副热带高压影响,(2)"北冕"结构不对称,(3)辐合带吸引作用及"双台风"效应,(4)"北冕"环流东北风分量大于西南风分量,(5)沿海地形作用;"北冕"进入北部湾后强度增强的主要原因是,(1)热带辐合带在华南沿海活动,(2)西南季风爆发处于活跃期。     

基于WRF-VAR的卫星资料同化分析检验试验

利用YHGSM 0.25°×0.25°高分辨数值产品作为背景场资料,使用WRF模式与WRF-VAR同化系统对中国区域进行连续一个月(2009年7月1～31日)的模拟试验,试验分为3组:(1)不同化任何资料,(2)同化常规资料,(3)同化ATOVS卫星资料;对3组试验进行了形势场检验和Ts评分.结果表明,第(2)、(3)...     

梅汛暴雨 杭加湖平原涝灾严重

1.长兴县林城公社齐心大队包齐抖堤岸决口,洪水淹没农田1800亩,(7月6日)。←② 2.被洪水冲倒的房屋。(7月18月)。     

Progress and Challenge of the Short-Term Climate Prediction

The experience of developing a short-term climate prediction system at the Institute of Atmospheric Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences is summarized,and some problems to be solved in future are discussed in this paper.It is suggested that a good system for short-term climate prediction should at least consist of (1) well-tested model(s),(2) sufficient data and good methods for the initialization and assimilation,(3) a good system for quantitative corrections,(4) a good ensemble prediction method,and (5) appropriate prediction products,such as mathematical expectation,standard deviation,probability,among others.     

急流与强对流风暴系统的关系

1 引言 Fawbush和Miller关于强对流风暴发展的原始判据是:(1) 高空有深厚的干空气层,(2) 低层有暖湿空气层,水汽水平分布通常呈窄舌状,(3) 湿舌上风方高空1万至2万英尺上有一强风速核,(4) 低层为自由对流,和(5) 低层有触发风暴系统的辐合(Fawbus-     

“海棠”台风（2005）结构对其降水影响的Q矢量分解研究

摘要： 基于WRF模式对2005年台风“海棠”登陆降水过程的成功模拟, 本文初步尝试利用修改后的非地转干Q矢量(QN矢量)PG分解, 定量揭示台风结构对台风降水和台风雨强差异形成的影响。结果表明： （1）在台风登陆过程的不同阶段, 对台风降水起主要贡献的台风结构因子是不同的。在台风登陆过程前12 h期间, 对降水贡献最为显著的为QNshdv, 其次是QNalst和QNcrst, 而QNcurv的贡献最小; 在后12 h期间, 对降水贡献最为显著的为QNcrst, 其次是QNcurv, QNshdv的贡献列第三, 而QNalst的贡献最小。（2）各台风结构因子QNalst、 QNcurv、 QNshdv及QNcrst对台风降水发生的贡献都存在明显的时、 空变化。（3）在台风登陆降水过程中, 对每个时刻暴雨雨强形成有贡献的台风结构因子是不同的。相对来讲, QNcurv对暴雨、 大暴雨及特大暴雨之间雨强差异形成的贡献最为显著, QNalst与QNcrst的贡献情况较为接近, 而QNshdv的贡献则相对最小。通过QN矢量PG分解, 可以定量揭示出登陆台风结构对台风降水的影响, 这也是总的QN矢量（即QN矢量）难以揭示的潜在物理机制。     

近年来大气遥感研究进展

本文着重介绍中国科学院大气物理研究所2003年以来在大气遥感研究方面的主要进展与成果,内容包括:(1)遥感技术与设备的发展;(2)大气气溶胶遥感;(3)云遥感;(4)大气微量气体遥感;(5)反演方法发展;(6)大气辐射传输算法研究。气溶胶的光学特性遥感研究是近年来热点之一,本文简要论述在气溶胶光学特性地基和卫星遥感反演算法、中国大气气溶胶光学特性时空分布特性、气溶胶辐射强迫遥感研究等方面所取得的成果。     

IMPACTS OF MONTHLY ANOMALIES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTH ASIA ON THE ACTIVITY OF SUMMER MONSOON AND RAINFALL IN EASTERN CHINA

The impact of strong (weak) intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over South China Sea (SCS) and South Asia (SA) in summer on the SCS and SA summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Eastern China are studied by using the NCEP-NCAR analysis data and the rainfall data of 160 stations in China from 1961 to 2010. It is found that the impacts are significantly different in different months of summer. The study shows that in June and July cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS and SA corresponds to strong (weak) ISO over SCS. In August, however, strong (weak) ISO over SCS still corresponds to cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA. In June and August cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over South Asia corresponds to strong (weak) ISO over SA while a strong (weak) ISO corresponds to anticyclonic (cyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA in July. Besides, in June the strong (weak) ISO over SA corresponds to cyclonic (anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS, while in July and August the atmospheric circulation is in the same phase regardless of whether the ISO over SA is strong or weak. The impacts of the strong（weak）ISO over SCS on the rainfall of eastern China are similar in June and July, which favors less (more) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin but sufficient (deficient) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River. However, the impacts are not so apparent in August. In South Asia, the strong (weak) ISO in July results in less (more) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River but sufficient (deficient) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin. The influence on the rainfall in eastern China in June and August is not as significant as in July.     

LOCALIZED HADLEY CIRCULATION AND ITS LINKAGE TO PACIFIC SSTA

The 1979-2001 ERA-40 monthly mean meridional winds are used to calculate the mass streamfunctions in the monsoon region (60-140° E) and Nio zone (160° E-120° W),with which the climate characteristics and intensity variation of the localized Hadley circulation (LHC) are analyzed over the two regions and the linkage of this LHC to Pacific SST is explored.Evidence suggests as follows.1) The climatological LHC is stronger in the monsoon than in the Nio zone,with its position in the former northward of the lat...     

Characteristics of intensity change in tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea from 1977 to 2007

The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST.     

Utilization of Specific Attenuation for Rainfall Estimation in Southern China

This study uses rain gauge observations to assess the performance of different radar estimators R(ZH), R(KDP)and R(A) in estimating precipitation based on the observations of an S-band polarimetric radar over southern China during a typical convective storm and an extremely severe typhoon, i. e., Typhoon Manghkut. These radar estimators were derived from observations of a local autonomous particle size and velocity(Parsivel) unit(APU) disdrometer. A key parameter, alpha(α), which is the ratio of specific attenuation A to specific differential phase K_(DP) with three fixed values(α=0.015 dB deg~(-1), α=0.0185 dB deg~(-1) and α=0.03 dB deg~(-1)) was examined to test the sensitivity of the R(A) rain retrievals. The results show that:(1) All radar estimators can capture the spatio-temporal patterns of two precipitation events, R(A) with α =0.0185 dB deg~(-1) is well correlated with gauge measurement via higher Pearson's correlation coefficient(CC) of 0.87, lower relative bias(RB) of 16%, and lower root mean square error(RMSE) of 17.09 mm in the convective storm while it underestimates the typhoon event with RB of 35%;(2) R(A) with α=0.03 dB deg~(-1) shows the best statistical scores with the highest CC(0.92), lowest RB(7%) and RMSE(25.74 mm) corresponding to Typhoon Manghkut;(3) R(A) estimates are more efficient in mitigating the impact of partial beam blockage. The results indicate that α is remarkably influenced by the variation of drop size distribution. Thus, more work is needed to establish an automated and optimized α for the R(A) relation during different rainfall events over different regions.     

A review of ten years of triggered-lightning experiments at Camp Blanding, Florida

The principal results of triggered-lightning experiments conducted at the International Center for Lightning Research and Testing (ICLRT) at Camp Blanding, Florida, from 1993 through 2002 are reviewed. These results include (a) characterization of the close lightning electromagnetic environment, (b) first lightning return-stroke speed profiles within 400 m of ground, (c) new insights into the mechanism of the dart-stepped (and by inference stepped) leader, (d) identification of the M-component mode of charge transfer to ground, (e) first optical image of upward connecting leader in triggered-lightning strokes, (f) electric fields in the immediate vicinity of the lightning channel, (g) inferences on the interaction of lightning with ground and with grounding electrodes, (h) discovery of X-rays produced by triggered-lightning strokes, (i) new insights into the mechanism of cutoff and reestablishment of current in rocket-triggered lightning. Selected results are discussed.     

ADVANCES IN APPLIED RESEARCH OF THE OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION IN CHINA

The outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)observed by NOAA satellite series has widely applied in various researchfields since the 1980s in China.In this paper,advances of the applied research of OLR are described in the following re-spects:(1)Studies of the global ITCZ;(2)Climatology of the subtropical high over northern Pacific;(3)Studies of the tropical cyclone over West Pacific;(4)Characteristics of the intraseasonal variation(ISV)of tropical convective activities;(5)Divergence wind and large scale circulation over the tropics;(6)Studies of the air-sea interaction;(7)Estimation of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and the Yangtze River(Changjiang River)basin during therainy season;(8)Analyses of regional climates of China;(9)Studies of prediction of the severe and disastrous weather and climate;(10)Atlas of OLR.The distinctive features of these advances are reviewed and the focal points of the OLR applied research in futureare also suggested.     

高原夏季风与南海夏季风关系及其影响

利用1983-2012年NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE、ECMWF再分析月平均资料,及中国160站月平均气温和降水量资料,利用统计学方法从大气环流、降水及温度等方面对高原夏季风与南海夏季风的关系进行了探讨。结果表明:高原夏季风与南海夏季风呈负相关关系,且大气环流及对流活动存在显著性差异。高原夏季风偏强(弱)同时南海夏季风偏弱(强)时,同期中国大部分地区的500hPa高度场偏低(高),南海地区500hPa高度场偏高(低);欧亚大陆低纬地区大部为偏东(西)风,南海地区处于反气旋(气旋)环流中。青藏高原主体地区上升运动较弱(强),南海中心区域上升运动均较弱(强),长江中下游地区降水增加(减少),华南降水减少(增加)。中国大部分地区气温较低(高),华南地区气温较高(低)。     

气象方面对于国家及社会实际需要之问题

本年四月十六日中央研究院评议会举行第二届年会时,以我国科学研究应特别注重於国家及社会实际急需之问题,并以此事徵询气象研究所之意见。炯因凝定气象方面对於目下我国社会急需建设之六项问题,送交评议会,再由中央研究院根据意见书之内容,向有关系各方建议。嗣得各方覆函,大体均表示赞同,且有一部分已见之实行矣。兹将当时送达评议会之意见书披露於后。