降水量水平空间分布非均匀性的普适分布律探讨

以中国区域逐月降水资料(272个测站)为基础探讨降水量场的水平空间概率分布模式的普适性。结果表明，描述中国区域月降水量水平空间分布非均匀性的普适分布律以г分布的PDF(Probability Density Function)最适宜；讨论了其分布参数的季节和年际变化及其气候意义，并用分区拟合结果验证了该分布型的普适性。     

基于分布律规则的风向传感器故障检测算法

风向传感器采用的格雷码编码方式使得风向传感器故障具有一定的“隐蔽性”,而传统故障检测方法需要拆卸风向传感器破坏了气象观测资料的完整性.基于概率分布从数理统计角度建立了码盘式风向传感器的测量数学模型,并在此基础上提出了基于分布律规则的风向传感器故障检测算法,通过VB/SQL/MATLAB混合编程技术实现了图示化的风向传感器故障检测程序,最后进行了故障检测试验.试验结果表明：提出的基于分布律规则的风向传感器故障检测算法能够在不拆卸风向传感器的情况下准确发现和判断出风向传感器单一或组合式故障类型.     

不同空间尺度涡旋的相互作用初探

本文用一个准地转正压模式积分10个模式日,数值地研究了不同空间尺度涡旋之间的相互作用,以及这种相互作用对大尺度涡旋位置和移动的影响。     

不同排列及不同尺度涡块相互作用的数值模拟试验

利用一个正压原始方程模式 ,实施了 8组时间积分为 48h的模式试验 ,研究多涡块相互作用的动力学。结果指出 :初始线性排列规则分布的 5个涡块 ,经多涡块相互作用 ,可以显示出三类终态空间构型 ,即初始线性排列的构型基本不变 ,线性排列方向改变以及涡块呈多边形排列     

小尺度系统对涡旋自组织的影响

在涡旋自组织动力学的框架内,利用．厂平面准地转正压模式讨论小尺度涡旋系统对两个中β尺度涡旋的自组织过程的影响。4组数值试验表明：小尺度涡旋的存在,可能会改变双涡相互作用的终态,使原本不合并的两个涡旋组织起来;双涡相互作用的终态对小尺度涡旋的初始位置敏感;存在“Z”型敏感区域,当小尺度涡旋出现在这一区域时,就有可能改变双涡相互作用的终态;小尺度涡旋对双涡相互作用产生影响需具备4个条件,即初始位于敏感区内,有足够的强度,距离适当且生存时间足够长。     

200hPa辐散环流对台风路径的影响

用一个准地转正压模式，实施了５组时间积分，并研究了不同尺度涡流旋相互作用对台风结构和移动的影响。结果表明，这种相互作用可以激发出台风非对称结构的非规则变化，进而引起路径的蛇行摆动以及台风移速突变等异常现象，较小尺度涡旋位于台风环流的不同方位时，这种相互作用对台风结构和移动的影响可以很不相同。     

守恒系统中台风强度变化及其可能因子的数值研究

用一个高分辨率的 f平面正压涡度方程模式 ,实施了时间积分为 36h的 2 1组试验 ,研究相邻中尺度涡旋与台风涡旋的相互作用。结果指出 :这种相互作用能否导致台风加强 ,取决于两类因子 :一是台风涡旋最大风速的取值以及圆形基流切变的强弱 ;二是切变基流中的中尺度涡旋的自身条件 ,包括中尺度涡旋的分布、尺度、强度和结构。台风强度与初始中尺度涡旋的尺度、强度之间存在着非线性的联系     

夏季副热带涡旋活动的气候学研究

引入新的涡旋识别方法,在全球副热带选取西北太平洋、东北太平洋、西北大西洋、东北大西洋和澳洲及其附近南太平洋5个涡旋活动代表性区域,用1985—2002年夏季ECMWF40年再分析资料统计,再用同期NCEP40年再分析资料对比,研究了副热带涡旋的气候学问题。结果表明:(1)两种再分析资料得到的涡旋空间分布型在5个区域都有较好的一致性,其中西北太平洋区域两种资料的相关性最好。(2)NCEP再分析资料得到的涡旋频数和强度都明显弱于ERA40计算结果,这主要是由于两种再分析资料的模式分辨率不同而造成的。(3)5个区域的涡旋活动主要分布在近海和海陆交界处,向陆地和内海方向减少。(4)西北太平洋有两个涡旋活动的高值中心:一个位于中国南海,另一个位于菲律宾东侧向北分布至中国黄海的西太平洋近海海域,为5个研究区域中面积最大。(5)西北大西洋的涡旋活动主要分布在从巴拿马地区向西侧太平洋延伸的纬度带内。(6)东北太平洋和东北大西洋的涡旋活动分布型相似,都位于5°—20°N的纬度带内,由海陆交界处伸向海洋。(7)澳洲及其附近南太平洋区域的涡旋活动不如其余4个区域强,主要分布在赤道一侧的近海区域。(8)除西北太平洋和西北大西洋区域外,其余两种再分析资料得到的3个区域涡旋活动年际变化有较大差异。(9)在西北太平洋和西北大西洋区域,涡旋活动的频繁程度没有表现出长期趋势,但具有清楚的阶段性特征,且两个区域的年际变化并不相同。(10)西北太平洋区域从20世纪80年代中期以来,涡旋个体强度呈增强趋势,这个增强的趋势在全球副热带地区最为明显。西北大西洋在90年代中期以前,涡旋强度有显著增强的趋势,而之后减弱。     

随机分布的小尺度涡对涡旋自组织影响的研究

以往双涡相互作用的动力学一般都在决定性的框架内研究。文中用一个平流方程模式,实施积分时间为30 h的8组试验,分析决定性和随机性共存系统中双涡相互作用和涡旋自组织的问题。随机性通过以下方式引入模式:先用Iwayama方案生成随机分布的小尺度涡,再将这些小尺度涡加入初始场。试验中,初始随机分布小尺度涡的强度参数K分别取0.0、0.4、0.6、0.8和1.0。结果表明,没有小尺度涡的条件下(K=0.0),初始分离的两个β中尺度涡逆时针互旋,其准终态流型是两个分离的涡;引进小尺度涡后,K取0.8、1.0时,初始分离强度相同的两个β中尺度涡,逐渐形成主次之分。主涡将次涡拉伸成为螺旋带,其准终态流型是一个自组织起来的类似于台风环流的涡旋。准终态涡中心的相对涡度值随K值的加大而加大。结果还表明,准终态流型不仅与初始小尺度涡的强度参数有关,而且与初始小尺度涡的分布有关。此外,在相同初始场的情况下,还实施了3类不同边畀条件的试验:第1类,在东西边界取周期条件,在南北边界取固定条件;第2类,在所有边界均取固定条件;第3类,在所有边界均取周期条件。这3类试验的准终态流型相同,都显示出一个类似于台风涡旋的环流。根据这些结果可以初步认为,涡旋自组织的研究从决定性动力学向随机动力学的过渡是值得探索的。     

中国地区夏季6～8月云水含量的垂直分布特征

基于观测资料的夏季云水含量时空分布情况对于数值天气预报、气候预测以及人工影响天气试验都十分重要。本文利用CloudSat卫星资料, 分析了2006～2008年中国地区夏季月平均云水含量的垂直和区域变化特征。结果显示, 青藏高原地形以及东亚夏季风对月平均云含水量分布具有明显影响。中国中部纬度上对流层中层的月平均液态水含量比南部及北部的量值大。各月平均云液水含量垂直廓线存在两个不同高度上的峰值区, 原因可能主要是受大尺度参数的控制, 以及受到青藏高原和东亚季风环流的影响。平均冰水含量纬向垂直分布的高值区主要在对流层中上部。本文中所揭示的云水含量特征为天气和气候模式改进、人工影响天气及云—辐射相互作用提供了重要的基础信息。     

Study on the Interaction of Non-axisymmetric Binary Vortices

In the context of advection dynamics,19 experiments(Exps.)are performed using a quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model to explore the condition for the mergence of binary vortices and the self-organization of the larger scale vortex.Results show that the initial distance between the centers of binary vortices and the non-axisymmetric distributions of their initial vorticity are two factors affecting the mergence of binary vortices.There is a critical distance for the mergence of initial symmetric binary vortices, however,the mergence of initial non-axisymmetric binary vortices is also affected by the asymmetric structure of initial vortices.The self-organization processes in 19 experiments can be classified into two types:one is the merging of identical,axisymmetric binary vortices in which the interaction of the two vortices undergoes slowly change,rapid change,and the formation,stretching,and development of the filaments of vorticity, and the two vortices merge into a symmetric vortex,with its vorticity piled up in the inner region coming from the two initial vortices,and the vorticity of the spiral band in the outer region from the stretching of the filaments of the two initial vortices.And the other type is the merging of the two non-axisymmetric initial vortices of an elliptic vortex and an eccentric vortex in which the elliptic vortex,on the one hand, mutually rotates,and on the other hand moves towards the center of the computational domain,at the same time expands its vorticity area,and at last forms the inner core of resultant state vortex;and the eccentric vortex mutually rotates,meanwhile continuously stretches,and finally forms the spiral band of resultant state vortex.The interaction process is characteristic of the vorticity piled up in the inner core region of resultant state vortex originating from the elliptic vortex and the vorticity in spiral band mainly from the successive stretch and rupture of the eccentric vortex.     

The interaction of binary vortices in a barotropic model

Summary The interaction of binary cyclonic vortices is investigated using the nondivergent barotropic model of Chan and Williams (1987) under two situations: a quiescent environment and a linearly-sheared background flow. It is found that the mutual interaction between the vortices results from a combination of two processes: the advection of symmetric vorticity by the asymmetric flow and the advection of asymmetric vorticity by the symmetric flow. The latter contribution is rather significant. Whether the vortices in a binary system attract or repel each other depends on the asymmetric vorticity distribution associated with the two vortices. Such a distribution is governed by the structure (size) of and the separation between the vortices. In the presence of a sheared flow, the contribution from the advection of asymmetric vorticity by the symmetric flow may also become appreciable depending on the structure and magnitude of the shear. Furthermore, the geographical locations of the vortices in relation to the sheared flow are also important in determining the relative movement of the vortices.In the presence of , the movements of the vortices are modified by the northwestward -drift However, the relative motion between the vortices is almost identical to that on an f-plane. In other words, the mutual interaction between the vortices is largely independent of . Alternatively, the two vortices can be considered to be one system which drifts towards the northwest under the influence of while they interact with each other within the system. Physically, this independence arises because the two relative vorticity advection terms have much larger magnitudes than the planetary vorticity advection term. However, the -effect is still important in that it modifies the asymmetric flow associated with each vortex and hence the asymmetric vorticity. Such modifications change the advection patterns compared with the =0 case and hence lead to different vortex movements. The presence of a linear shear causes the binary system to move as if it was a large (for a cyclonic shear) or smaller (for an anticyclonic shear) vortex under the influence of .With 22 Figures     

东移低涡动力学的初步研究

用一个正压原始方程模式实施了六组试验，研究了东移低涡的动力学。结果表明：无论是切变基流与低涡的相互作用，还是涡块与低涡的相互作用，都可引起低涡强度在短暂时段内增强，但整个积分时段内低涡强度的演变仍呈下降趋势。切变基流、低涡和多个涡块的相互作用，可以改变下降的趋势。正相对涡度切变基流中低涡和涡块的合并，是东移低涡强度得以维持和发展的一个直接的原因。     

台风环流区域内中尺度涡量传播特征的研究

用一个高分辨率f平面直角坐标系的正压准地转模式,实施了10组积分时间为36 h的试验,研究了初始位于台风外区的一个中尺度涡旋与台风涡旋的相互作用。结果表明:这种相互作用可以激发一个从外区伸展到内区的较小尺度的涡旋对,以此方式将涡量内传至台风中心附近。同时,中尺度涡旋呈现涡量集中化的特征。涡量内传与涡量集中化共存,使内区涡量增多,导致台风增强。此外,在一定条件下,这种相互作用还可以使涡量带破碎和断裂,形成一系列空间尺度更小的涡块。     

2019年8月16日沈阳极端降水事件的低空γ中尺度涡旋观测特征和机理分析

2019年8月16日沈阳市区受伴有低空γ中尺度涡旋的强对流系统影响,发生了1951年有观测记录以来的最大小时降水（102 mm）。为了提高对此类涡旋所致强降水天气的认识和预报能力,综合利用多源观测和ERA5再分析资料,对此次过程中低空γ中尺度涡旋的观测特征、形成原因和对强降水的影响机制开展研究。此次过程期间,500 hPa沈阳位于东北冷涡东南侧,850 hPa以下低空位于“利奇马”台风残涡西侧的偏北气流水汽输送带内,16日午后沈阳市区具有低层大气气温廓线接近干绝热递减率、较低抬升凝结高度和逐渐加强的风垂直切变等环境条件特征;风廓线雷达资料显示降水前0—6 km风矢量差最大达17 m/s,有利于较浅薄中尺度涡旋对发生。16时前后,沈阳市区内γ中尺度辐合风场首先触发局地风暴,随后有对流风暴群移入沈阳,在局地风暴具有反气旋式旋转处合并。合并风暴在初期产生强降水后,回波顶降低、降水强度减小,低空出现了生命期约30 min的γ中尺度涡旋对,更是出现罕见的具有辐合特征的反气旋式涡旋加强的现象,伴有低空涡旋的风暴再次加强并导致后期更强的降水。相比中国中气旋统计特征,本次低空浅薄涡旋生命期较短、尺度小...     

非轴对称双涡相互作用的研究

在平流动力学的框架内,用准地转正压涡度方程模式实施了19组试验,研究双涡合并的条件及较大尺度涡旋自组织的问题。结果指出:(1)存在着两个影响双涡合并的因素,即初始双涡中心之间的距离和初始涡旋的非轴对称分布。初始两个对称涡旋合并具有明显的临界距离效应,但初始两个非轴对称涡旋能否合并还受到初始涡旋的非对称结构的复杂影响。(2)存在着两类不同的较大尺度涡旋的自组织过程,形成较大尺度涡旋。第一类,初始两个涡旋相同,均呈轴对称分布。双涡作用经历了缓变、快变,以及涡量羽翼的生成、拉伸和发展的过程,合并后呈对称性流型;终态涡内区涡量的堆积来源于两个初始涡,终态涡外区的螺旋带来源于两个初始涡外缘线涡量羽翼的拉伸。第二类,初始两个涡旋不同,一个为椭圆型,一个为偏心型,均呈非轴对称分布。双涡作用中,椭圆涡一边互旋,一边向计算区域中心靠近,同时涡量范围加大,形成了终态涡的内核区;偏心涡一边互旋,一边被不断拉伸,形成了终态涡的螺旋带区;表现出终态涡内区的涡量堆集来源于椭圆涡,终态涡外区螺旋带主要来源于偏心涡的反复拉伸及断裂的特性。     

Interaction between an eddy and a zonal jet : Part II. Two-and-a-half-layer model

In a two-and-a-half-layer quasi-geostrophic model, a process study is conducted on the interaction between a vortex and a zonal jet, both with constant potential vorticity. The vortex is a stable anticyclone, initially located north of the eastward jet. The potential vorticity of the jet is allowed to have various vertical structures, while the vortex is concentrated in only one layer. The flow parameters are set to values characteristic of the Azores region.First, the jet is stable. Weak vortices steadily drift north of the jet without crossing it while strong vortices can cross the jet and tear off a cyclone with which they pair as a heton (baroclinic dipole). This heton often breaks later in the shear exerted by the jet; the two vortices finally drift apart. When crossed by deep anticyclones, the jet develops meanders with 375 km wavelength. These results exhibit a noticeable similarity with the one-and-a-half-layer case studied in Part I.Secondly, the jet is allowed to be linearly unstable. In the absence of the vortex, it develops meanders with 175 km wavelength and 25-day e-folding time on the β-plane. For various vertical structures of the jet, baroclinic instability is shown to barely affect jet–vortex interaction if the linear growth rate of unstable waves is smaller than 1/(14 days). Further simulations with a linearly unstable, nonlinearly equilibrated jet evidence its strong temporal variability when crossed by a deep vortex on the β-plane. In particular, long waves can dominate the spectrum for a few months after jet crossing by the vortex. Again in this process, the deep vortex couples with a surface cyclone and both drift southwestward.     

A STUDY ON MESOSCALE VORTICITY PROPAGATION IN A TYPHOON-LIKE VORTEX*

By using an f-plane barotropic quasi geostrophic model in the rectangular coordinates with a grid spacing of 5 km,ten experiments whose integration time is 36 hours are performed in order to study the interaction between a typhoon vortex and a mesoscale vortex whose initial center position is located at 2 r_m northwest to the typhoon center,where r_m is the radius of maximum wind of the typhoon vortex. Results show that the interaction can create a pair of smaller scale vortices or lumps,which extend from the outside region of the typhoon to near its center,resulting in the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity.In this process,the vorticity concentration of the mesoscale vortex may appear.The coexistence of the propagation and the concentration makes the increase of vorticity in the inside region i.e.a more intensive typhoon.Meanwhile,the intensity of the lump with positive vorticity oscillates with time,with the oscillation period being several hours,the distance from the typhoon center to the lump center also has a similar oscillation period,which reduces the oscillation of typhoon intensity.In the case of stronger circular basic flow,the interaction can make the intensification of typhoon more obviously. In addition,in some parametric conditions,the interaction may break down the continuous vorticity zone,exhibiting a cluster of smaller vorticity lumps.