On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Ni?o

The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing.     

Distinct Evolution of the SST Anomalies in the Far Eastern Pacific between the 1997/98 and 2015/16 Extreme El Niños

The 2015/16 El Ni?o displayed a distinct feature in the SST anomalies over the far eastern Pacific(FEP)compared to the 1997/98 extreme case.In contrast to the strong warm SST anomalies in the FEP in the 1997/98 event,the FEP warm SST anomalies in the 2015/16 El Ni?o were modest and accompanied by strong southeasterly wind anomalies in the southeastern Pacific.Exploring possible underlying causes of this distinct difference in the FEP may improve understanding of the diversity of extreme El Ni?os.Here,we employ observational analyses and numerical model experiments to tackle this issue.Mixed-layer heat budget analysis suggests that compared to the 1997/98 event,the modest FEP SST warming in the 2015/16 event was closely related to strong vertical upwelling,strong westward current,and enhanced surface evaporation,which were caused by the strong southeasterly wind anomalies in the southeastern Pacific.The strong southeasterly wind anomalies were initially triggered by the combined effects of warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific(CEP)and cold SST anomalies in the southeastern subtropical Pacific in the antecedent winter,and then sustained by the warm SST anomalies over the northeastern subtropical Pacific and CEP.In contrast,southeasterly wind anomalies in the 1997/98 El Ni?o were partly restrained by strong anomalously negative sea level pressure and northwesterlies in the northeast flank of the related anomalous cyclone in the subtropical South Pacific.In addition,the strong southeasterly wind and modest SST anomalies in the 2015/16 El Ni?o may also have been partly related to decadal climate variability.     

Parallel Comparison of the 1982/83,1997/98 and 2015/16 Super El Nios and Their Effects on the Extratropical Stratosphere

This study uses multiple sea surface temperature(SST) datasets to perform a parallel comparison of three super El Ni os and their effects on the stratosphere. The results show that, different from ordinary El Ni os, warm SST anomalies appear earliest in the western tropical Pacific and precede the super El Ni o peak by more than 18 months. In the previous winter,relative to the mature phase of El Ni o, as a precursor, North Pacific Oscillation-like circulation anomalies are observed. A Pacific–North America(PNA) teleconnection appears in the extratropical troposphere during the mature phase, in spite of the subtle differences between the intensities, as well as the zonal position, of the PNA lobes. Related to the negative rainfall response over the tropical Indian Ocean, the PNA teleconnection in the winter of 1997/98 is the strongest among the three super El Ni os. The northern winter stratosphere shows large anomalies in the polar cap temperature and the circumpolar westerly, if the interferences from other factors are linearly filtered from the circulation data. Associated with the positive PNA response in a super El Ni o winter, positive polar cap temperature anomalies and circumpolar easterly anomalies,though different in timing, are also observed in the mature winters of the three super El Ni os. The stratospheric polar vortex in the next winter relative to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events is also anomalously weaker and warmer, and the stratospheric circulation conditions remain to be seen in the coming winter following the mature phase of the 2015/16 event.     

Understanding the Development of the 2018/19 Central Pacific El Ni?o

A central Pacific(CP) El Ni?o event occurred in 2018/19. Previous studies have shown that different mechanisms are responsible for different subtypes of CP El Ni?o events(CP-I El Ni?o and CP-II El Ni?o). By comparing the evolutions of surface winds, ocean temperatures, and heat budgets of the CP-I El Ni?o, CP-II El Ni?o, and 2018/19 El Ni?o, it is illustrated that the subtropical westerly anomalies in the North Pacific, which led to anomalous convergence of Ekman flow and surface warming in the ...     

An Application of the RAMS/FLUENT System on the Multi-Scale Numerical Simulation of the Urban Surface Layer A Preliminary Study

The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System （RAMS） and the computational fluid dynamics （CFD） codes known as FLUENT are combinatorially applied in a multi-scale numerical simulation of the urban surface layer （USL）. RAMS and FLUENT are combined as a multi-scale numerical modeling system, in which the RAMS simulated data are delivered to the computational model for FLUENT simulation in an offline way. Numerical simulations are performed to present and preliminarily validate the capability of the multi-scale modeling system, and the results show that the modeling system can reasonably provide information on the meteorological elements in an urban area from the urban scale to the city-block scale, especially the details of the turbulent flows within the USL.     

On the Ningaloo Niño/Niña

Using both observational and reanalysis data, evolution processes of a regional climate phenomenon off Western Australia named recently “Ningaloo Niño (Niña)” are studied in detail. It is also shown that the Ningaloo Niño (Niña) has significant impacts on the precipitation over Australia. The Ningaloo Niño (Niña), which is associated with positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and atmospheric anomalies off the western coast of Australia, peaks during austral summer and is classified into two types based on the difference in the evolution process. The first type called a locally amplified mode develops through an intrinsic unstable air–sea interaction off the western coast of Australia; an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) generated by positive (negative) SST anomalies forces northerly (southerly) alongshore wind anomalies, which induce coastal downwelling (upwelling) anomalies, and enhance the positive (negative) SST anomalies further. The second type called a non-locally amplified mode is associated with coastally trapped waves originating in either the western tropical Pacific, mostly related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or the northern coast of Australia. Positive (negative) SST anomalies in both modes are associated with an anomalous low (high) off the western coast of Australia. The sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the locally amplified mode are regionally confined with a cell-like pattern and produce a sharp offshore pressure gradient along the western coast of Australia, whereas those in the non-locally amplified mode tend to show a zonally elongated pattern. The difference is found to be related to conditions of the continental SLP modulated by the Australian summer monsoon and/or the Southern Annular Mode.     

Air–Sea/Land Interaction in the Coastal Zone

Atmospheric turbulence measurements made at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF) located on the Atlantic coast near the town of Duck, North Carolina during the CASPER-East Program (October–November 2015) are used to study air–sea/land coupling in the FRF coastal zone. Turbulence and mean meteorological data were collected at multiple levels (up to four) on three towers deployed at different landward distances from the shoreline, with a fourth tower located at the end of a 560-m-long FRF pier. The data enable comparison of turbulent fluxes and other statistics, as well as investigations of surface-layer scaling for different footprints, including relatively smooth sea-surface conditions and aerodynamically rough dry inland areas. Both stable and unstable stratifications were observed. The drag coefficient and diurnal variation of the sensible heat flux are found to be indicators for disparate surface footprints. The drag coefficient over the land footprint is significantly greater, by as much as an order of magnitude, compared with that over the smooth sea-surface footprint. For onshore flow, the internal boundary layer in the coastal zone was either stable or (mostly) unstable, and varied dramatically at the land-surface discontinuity. The offshore flow of generally warm air over the cooler sea surface produced a stable internal boundary layer over the ocean surface downstream from the coast. While the coastal inhomogeneities violate the assumptions underlying Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), any deviations from MOST are less profound for the scaled standard deviations and the dissipation rate over both water and land, as well as for stable and unstable conditions. Observations, however, show a poor correspondence with MOST for the flux-profile relationships. Suitably-averaged, non-dimensional profiles of wind speed and temperature vary significantly among the different flux towers and observation levels, with high data scatter. Overall, the statistical dependence of the vertical gradients of scaled wind speed and temperature on the Monin–Obukhov stability parameter in the coastal area is weak, if not non-existent.     

Winter storms in Switzerland North of the Alps 1864/1865–1993/1994

Summary In the framework of the Swiss National Research Program 31 Climate changes and natural disasters the question was brought up whether a global warming of the atmosphere would have an influence on the frequency and/or intensity of the extratropical storms of the Swiss winter season. In order to investigate a possible trend, time series of days with a minimum wind speed estimate or measurement equivalent to Beaufort 7, 8 and 9 were established. The longest being a record of the mesonet station Zürich from the period 1864 until 1993 (130 years). Slightly shorter time series for three additional stations in Northern Switzerland were compiled to control the behavior of the longest record and to verify the observed temporal trend. From the location of the four investigated wind records the observational domain was restricted to the part of Switzerland north of the Alps whereas for further meteorological considerations the whole North-Atlantic-European area was included.A negative regional trend in the number of storm days has been observed during the last century. In particular, the period before 1940 has to be interpreted as windier than the following decades. The duration of a storm event also decreased on average. In spite of an increase in cyclonic westwind situations since about 1960 over Europe, Switzerland was hit by fewer storms during the same period. One explanation could be that the whole westwind belt has moved slightly further north where a deepening of the cyclones was observed in recent times. Switzerland is usually situated at the southernmost edge of the particular storm fields and is therefore less influenced by strong gales. Rare exceptions are the cases when a secondary depression directly hits Central Europe, e.g. as happened in February 1990 (storm Vivian).With 11 Figures     

Mass Balance of Gaseous and Particulate Products from β-Pinene/O3/Air in the Absence of Light and β-Pinene/NOx/Air in the Presence of Natural Sunlight

The gas and particle phase products from the reaction of -pinene with the atmospheric oxidants O₃ and OH radicals in the presence of NO_x were investigated using both gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for identification and quantification of reaction products. The nighttime oxidation of -pinene in the presence of O₃/air and the daytime oxidation of -pinene in the presence of NO_x/air and natural sunlight were carried out in the University of North Carolina large outdoor smog chamber (190 m³) located in Chatham County, North Carolina. A Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer system (3936, TSI) and a Condensation Particle Counter (3025A, TSI) were used to study the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation, and a filter pack/denuder sampling system was used for simultaneously collecting gas and particle phase products for analysis. A gas chromatograph coupled to a mass spectrometer (GC-EIMS or GC-CIMS) was used for the identification and quantification of gas and aerosol products. A HPLC method was used for the measurement of small carbonyl compounds (aldehydes and ketones) as their 2,4-dinitrophenylhydrazones (DNPH) derivatives. Mass balances for gaseous and aerosol reaction products were reported over the course of the reaction. More than sixteen products were identified and/or quantified in this study. On average, measured gas and particle phase products accounted for 57 to 71% of the reacted -pinene carbon. Measurements showed that a number of reaction products were found in both O₃ and NO_x systems (pinic acid, pinalic-3-acid, 4-hydroxypinalic-3-acid, 4-oxonopinone, 1-hydroxynopinone, 3-hydroxynopinone, and nopinone). Pinic acid, pinalic-3-acid, and 4-hydroxypinalic-3-acid were observed in the early stage in the aerosol phase and may play an important role in the early formation of secondary aerosols. Detailed reaction schemes are presented to account for most of the observed reaction products.     

Upper-Ocean Dynamical Features and Prediction of the Super El Ni?o in 2015/16:A Comparison with the Cases in 1982/83 and 1997/98

The 2015/16 super El Ni?o event has been widely recognized as comparable to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Ni?o events.This study examines the main features of upper-ocean dynamics in this new super event,contrasts them to those in the two historical super events,and quantitatively compares the major oceanic dynamical feedbacks based on a mixed-layer heat budget analysis of the tropical Pacific.During the early stage,this new event is characterized by an eastward propagation of SST anomalies and a weak warm-pool El Ni?o;whereas during its mature phase,it is characterized by a weak westward propagation and a westward-shifted SST anomaly center,mainly due to the strong easterly wind and cold upwelling anomalies in the far eastern Pacific,as well as the westward anomalies of equatorial zonal current and subsurface ocean temperature.The heat budget analysis shows that the thermocline feedback is the most crucial process inducing the SST anomaly growth and phase transition of all the super events,and particularly for this new event,the zonal advective feedback also exerts an important impact on the formation of the strong warming and westward-shifted pattern of SST anomalies.During this event,several westerly wind burst events occur,and oceanic Kelvin waves propagate eastwards before being maintained over eastern Pacific in the mature stage.Meanwhile,there is no evidence for westward propagation of the off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves though the discharging process of equatorial heat during the development and mature stages.The second generation El Ni?o prediction system of the Beijing Climate Center produced reasonable event real-time operational prediction during 2014–16,wherein the statistical prediction model that considers the preceding oceanic precursors plays an important role in the multi-method ensemble prediction of this super.     

Upper-ocean dynamical features and prediction of the super El Niño in 2015/16: A comparison with the cases in 1982/83 and 1997/98

The 2015/16 super El Niño event has been widely recognized as comparable to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events. This study examines the main features of upper-ocean dynamics in this new super event, contrasts them to those in the two historical super events, and quantitatively compares the major oceanic dynamical feedbacks based on a mixed-layer heat budget analysis of the tropical Pacific. During the early stage, this new event is characterized by an eastward propagation of SST anomalies and a weak warm-pool El Niño; whereas during its mature phase, it is characterized by a weak westward propagation and a westward-shifted SST anomaly center, mainly due to the strong easterly wind and cold upwelling anomalies in the far eastern Pacific, as well as the westward anomalies of equatorial zonal current and subsurface ocean temperature. The heat budget analysis shows that the thermocline feedback is the most crucial process inducing the SST anomaly growth and phase transition of all the super events, and particularly for this new event, the zonal advective feedback also exerts an important impact on the formation of the strong warming and westward-shifted pattern of SST anomalies. During this event, several westerly wind burst events occur, and oceanic Kelvin waves propagate eastwards before being maintained over eastern Pacific in the mature stage. Mean-while, there is no evidence for westward propagation of the off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves though the discharging process of equatorial heat during the development and mature stages. The second generation El Niño prediction system of the Beijing Climate Center produced reasonable event real-time operational prediction during 2014–16, wherein the statistical prediction model that considers the preceding oceanic precursors plays an important role in the multi-method ensemble prediction of this super.     

Telecorrelation of the 500 hPa Polar Circulation and El Nino / SO with the Temperature Fields in China

By using the monthly data from 1951 through 1984, empirical orthogonal expansion is performed for the 500 hPa geopotential height north of 65°N and the canonical fields are clustered by fuzzy classification. It is noted that both the mean monthly polar vortex fields and the large-scale anomaly fields fall into three regimes, with those of the January mean field and th April anomaly field having characteristic features. In addition, the relationship between the time weigthing coefficients of the canonical fields and El Nino / SO is examined, showing significant anomalies in the large-scale polar anomaly fields during April and October of the year when El Nino occurs. These polar circulation anomalies have considerably influenced the temperature fields in China during April and October. Thus, we may conclude that this is one of the most important reasons for a relatively cool April and a warm October in China during the El Nino year.     

Climate Change Projections for the 21st Century by the NCC/IAP T63 Model with SRES Scenarios

1. IntroductionFor the latest 15 years, the climate change hasbeen paid more attention by the policy-makers, scien-tists, and the public. The global warming of 0.4-0.8°Cfor the 20th century has been measured by the instru-mental observations. The atmospheric concentrationof CO2 increased from 280 ppm for the period 1000-1750 to 368 ppm in the year 2000 with an increase of27%-35%. In the light of new evidence and taking intoaccount the remaining uncertainties, most of the ob-served warming o…     

On the Seasonal Transition and the Interannual Variability in Global Kinetic Energy at 500 hPa, Accompanied withAnomalies of Energy during the 1982 / 83 ENSO

Utilizing the material of monthly means of the three primary kinetic energy modes over the whote globe at 500 hPa during the nine years of 1980-1988, both the rapid seasonal changes and the interannual variability in tie general circulation in terms of the energy modes have been investigated, with special attention paid to the unusual year 1983, Two main results are obtained. One, there are remarkable seasonal rapid changes over the Northern Hemisphere, occurring ganerally in April and October. The other, among the nine years of 1980-1988, 1983 is the only one with unusual energy modes and remarkably abnormal seasonal changes.     

The influence of El Niño on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall anomaly: a diagnostic study of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events

The Indian summer monsoon of 1982 and 1997 depicts disparities, however, maximum sea surface temperature anomaly over Niño 3 region is observed in the following winter of both the years. The inter-annual variation of sea surface temperature anomaly shows maximum peak during 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events. The inter-annual variation of multivariate ENSO index also supports the above observation. The analyses of the entire tropical Pacific basin including the equatorial region reveal an anomalous behavior of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and the convective activities. The observations further reveal that the negative anomaly in monsoon rainfall over India prevails throughout the monsoon season except for the month of August in 1982, while in the year 1997 the monsoon rainfall anomaly shows random variations. The comparison between the summer monsoon rainfall of 1982 and 1997 depicts that the magnitude of the positive anomaly is same in the month of August. The condition over tropical Pacific during 1982/83 and 1997/98 has been investigated through the variation of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR), MSLP and pressure vertical velocity. The time–longitude plots of OLR and MSLP reveal the changes in pressure distribution and convective pattern over the tropical equatorial Pacific. The zonal and meridional cross section of pressure vertical velocity over the tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean facilitates to understand the strength of the vertical motion during the monsoons of 1982 and 1997.     

Tracing glacier wastage in the Northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan/Central Asia) over the last 40 years

The status and dynamics of glaciers are crucial for agriculture in semiarid parts of Central Asia, since river flow is characterized by major runoff in spring and summer, supplied by glacier- and snowmelt. Ideally, this coincides with the critical period of water demand for irrigation. The present study shows a clear trend in glacier retreat between 1963 and 2000 in the Sokoluk watershed, a catchment of the Northern Tien Shan mountain range in Kyrgyzstan. The overall area loss of 28% observed for the period 1963–2000, and a clear acceleration of wastage since the 1980s, correlate with the results of previous studies in other regions of the Tien Shan as well as the Alps. In particular, glaciers smaller than 0.5 km² have exhibited this phenomenon most starkly. While they registered a medium decrease of only 9.1% for 1963–1986, they lost 41.5% of their surface area between 1986 and 2000. Furthermore, a general increase in the minimum glacier elevation of 78 m has been observed over the last three decades. This corresponds to about one-third of the entire retreat of the minimum glacier elevation in the Northern Tien Shan since the Little Ice Age maximum.     

Gaseous and Particulate Oxidation Products Analysis of a Mixture of α-pinene + β-pinene/O3/Air in the Absence of Light and α-pinene + β-pinene/NOx/Air in the Presence of Natural Sunlight

The gas and particle phase reaction products of a mixture of the atmospherically important terpenes -pinene and -pinene with the atmospheric oxidants O₃ and OH/NO_x were investigated using both gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for identification and quantification of reaction products. The nighttime oxidation of a mixture of -pinene and -pinene in the presence of O₃/air, and the daytime oxidation of a mixture of -pinene + -pinene with NO_x air in the presence of natural sunlight were carried out in the University of North Carolina's large outdoor smog chamber (190 m³) located in Chatham County, North Carolina. Mass balances for gaseous and aerosol reaction products are reported over the course of the reaction. More than twenty-nine products were identified and/or quantified in this study. On average, measured gas and particle phase products accounted for 74 to 80% of the reacted -pinen/-pinene mixture carbon. Measurements show that a number of reaction products were found in both O₃ and NO_x system [pinonaldehyde, pinic acid, pinonic acid, pinalic-3-acid, 4-hydroxypinalic-3-acid, 4-oxonopinone, 1-hydroxy-nopinone, 3-hydroxy-nopinone, and nopinone]. Pinonic acid, pinic acid, pinalic-3-acid, 4-hydroxypinalic-3-acid, and 10-hydroxypinonic acid were observed in the early stage in the aerosol phase and may play an important role in the early formation of secondary aerosols.