Multi-model projection of July�CAugust climate extreme changes over China under CO2 doubling. Part I: Precipitation

Potential changes in precipitation extremes in July–August over China in response to CO 2 doubling are analyzed based on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and the 1% per year CO 2 increase experiment (to doubling) (1pctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). Evaluation of the models’ performance in simulating the mean state shows that the majority of models fairly reproduce the broad spatial pattern of observed precipitation. However, all the models underestimate extreme precipitation by ～50%. The spread among the models over the Tibetan Plateau is ～2–3 times larger than that over the other areas. Models with higher resolution generally perform better than those with lower resolutions in terms of spatial pattern and precipitation amount. Under the 1pctto2x scenario, the ratio between the absolute value of MME extreme precipitation change and model spread is larger than that of total precipitation, indicating a relatively robust change of extremes. The change of extreme precipitation is more homogeneous than the total precipitation. Analysis on the output of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1) indicates that the spatially consistent increase of surface temperature and water vapor content contribute to the large increase of extreme precipitation over contiguous China, which follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Whereas, the meridionally tri-polar pattern of mean precipitation change over eastern China is dominated by the change of water vapor convergence, which is determined by the response of monsoon circulation to global warming.     

Climate�Csoil�Cvegetation control on groundwater table dynamics and its feedbacks in a climate model

Among the three dynamically linked branches of the water cycle, including atmospheric, surface, and subsurface water, groundwater is the largest reservoir and an active component of the hydrologic system. Because of the inherent slow response time, groundwater may be particularly relevant for long time-scale processes such as multi-years or decadal droughts. This study uses regional climate simulations with and without surface water?Cgroundwater interactions for the conterminous US to assess the influence of climate, soil, and vegetation on groundwater table dynamics, and its potential feedbacks to regional climate. Analyses show that precipitation has a dominant influence on the spatial and temporal variations of groundwater table depth (GWT). The simulated GWT is found to decrease sharply with increasing precipitation. Our simulation also shows some distinct spatial variations that are related to soil porosity and hydraulic conductivity. Vegetation properties such as minimum stomatal resistance, and root depth and fraction are also found to play an important role in controlling the groundwater table. Comparing two simulations with and without groundwater table dynamics, we find that groundwater table dynamics mainly influences the partitioning of soil water between the surface (0?C0.5?m) and subsurface (0.5?C5?m) rather than total soil moisture. In most areas, groundwater table dynamics increases surface soil moisture at the expense of the subsurface, except in regions with very shallow groundwater table. The change in soil water partitioning between the surface and subsurface is found to strongly correlate with the partitioning of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. The evaporative fraction (EF) is generally higher during summer when groundwater table dynamics is included. This is accompanied by increased cloudiness, reduced diurnal temperature range, cooler surface temperature, and increased cloud top height. Although both convective and non-convective precipitation are enhanced, the higher EF changes the partitioning to favor more non-convective precipitation, but this result could be sensitive to the convective parameterization used. Compared to simulations without groundwater table dynamics, the dry bias in the summer precipitation is slightly reduced over the central and eastern US Groundwater table dynamics can provide important feedbacks to atmospheric processes, and these feedbacks are stronger in regions with deeper groundwater table, because the interactions between surface and subsurface are weak when the groundwater table is deep. This increases the sensitivity of surface soil moisture to precipitation anomalies, and therefore enhances land surface feedbacks to the atmosphere through changes in soil moisture and evaporative fraction. By altering the groundwater table depth, land use change and groundwater withdrawal can alter land surface response and feedback to the climate system.     

Atmospheric circulation anomalies during two persistent north american droughts: 1932�C1939 and 1948�C1957

We use an early twentieth century (1908?C1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932?C1939 (the ??Dust Bowl??) and 1948?C1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October?CMarch) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April?CSeptember) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948?C1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932?C1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et?al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.     

Stochastic simulations of the Madden�CJulian oscillation activity

The Madden?CJulian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do interannual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948?C2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880?C2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948?C1972 (3.4?events?year^?1) and two regimes of high activity in 1973?C1989 (3.9 events) and 1990?C2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880?C1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896?C1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918?C1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880?C1895), 0.076 (1896?C1917), 0.197 (1918?C1947) and 0.193 (1948?C1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973?C1989) and 0.510 (1990?C2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.     

A statistical�Cdynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part I: weather regimes as predictors for ocean surface variables

The links between the observed variability of the surface ocean variables estimated from reanalysis and the overlying atmosphere decomposed in classes of large-scale atmospheric circulation via clustering are investigated over the Atlantic from 1958 to 2002. Daily 500?hPa geopotential height and 1,000?hPa wind anomaly maps are classified following a weather-typing approach to describe the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic atmospheric dynamics, respectively. The algorithm yields patterns that correspond in the extratropics to the well-known North Atlantic-Europe weather regimes (NAE-WR) accounting for the barotropic dynamics, and in the tropics to wind classes (T-WC) representing the alteration of the trades. 10-m wind and 2-m temperature (T2) anomaly composites derived from regime/wind class occurrence are indicative of strong relationships between daily large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean surface over the entire Atlantic basin. High temporal correlation values are obtained basin-wide at low frequency between the observed fields and their reconstruction by multiple linear regressions with the frequencies of occurrence of both NAE-WR and T-WC used as sole predictors. Additional multiple linear regressions also emphasize the importance of accounting for the strength of the daily anomalous atmospheric circulation estimated by the combined distances to all regimes centroids in order to reproduce the daily to interannual variability of the Atlantic ocean. We show that for most of the North Atlantic basin the occurrence of NAE-WR generally sets the sign of the ocean surface anomaly for a given day, and that the inter-regime distances are valuable predictors for the magnitude of that anomaly. Finally, we provide evidence that a large fraction of the low-frequency trends in the Atlantic observed at the surface over the last 50?years can be traced back, except for T2, to changes in occurrence of tropical and extratropical weather classes. All together, our findings are encouraging for the prospects of basin-scale ocean dynamical downscaling using a weather-typing approach to reconstruct forcing fields for high resolution ocean models (Part II) from coarse resolution climate models.     

(九)A.I.D.的作图法

本讲介绍如何在图上进行A.I.D.的分类筛选预报,它的优点是避免了计算,利用和天气预报中常用的点聚图方法相类似的画法,就可以作出预报。现用一个实例来说明。 考虑长江中下游汉口、九江、芜湖、南京、上海五站平均5—8月降水总量(y),选用了1952—1976年25年资料用五个气象要素作为因子。 因子:x_1是一月0—150°E,45—65°N的纬向指数I_z, x_2是一月份欧洲大型环流型C型天数, x_3是一月份长江流域六站降水量∑R_1月, x_4是一月份长江流域六站温度∑月,     

The Answer to the Comments by Yu. D. Resnyanskii to the Papers by L. Kh. Ingel’ and A. A. Makosko

The critical comments to the publications by the authors ofthe present paper that were given in [10] (the publications deal with the possible effects of gravity field inhomogeneities in the atmosphere and ocean) are discussed. In the authors' opinion, some remarks are groundless. At the same time, the authors agree with one of the important remarks that the results of their paper concerning studies of the ocean disturbances are to be reconsidered.     

Net air�Csea surface heat flux during 1984�C2004 over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans (10��N�C50��N): annual mean climatology and trend

Using the Objectively Analyzed air?Csea Fluxes dataset (and also the National Oceanography Centre Southampton Flux Dataset v2.0), we examined both the annual mean climatology and trend of net air?Csea surface heat flux (Q _net) for 1984?C2004 over the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans (10°N?C50°N). The annual mean Q _net climatology shows that oceans obtain the positive Q _net over much of the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. Exceptions are the regions of western boundary currents (WBCs) including the Kuroshio and its extension off Japan and the Gulf Stream off the USA and its extension, where oceans release lots of heat into the atmosphere, mainly ascribed to the large surface turbulent heat loss. The statistically significant negative Q _net trends occurred in the WBCs, while the statistically significant positive Q _net trends appeared in the central basins of Northern Subtropical Oceans (CNSOs) including the central basin of Northern Subtropical Pacific and the central basin of Northern Subtropical Atlantic. These indentified Q _net trends, which are independent of both El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki but closely related to global warming forcing, are predominately due to the statistically significant surface latent heat (LH) trends. Over the WBCs, the positive LH trends are mainly induced by the sea surface temperature increasing, indicating the ocean forcing upon overlying atmosphere. In contrast, over the CNSOs, the negative LH trends are mainly caused by the near-surface air specific humidity increasing, indicative of an oceanic response to overlying atmospheric forcing.     

A statistical�Cdynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part II: methodology, validation and application to high-resolution ocean models

A novel statistical?Cdynamical scheme has been developed to reconstruct the sea surface atmospheric variables necessary to force an ocean model. Multiple linear regressions are first built over a so-called learning period and over the entire Atlantic basin from the observed relationship between the surface wind conditions, or predictands, and the anomalous large scale atmospheric circulations, or predictors. The latter are estimated in the extratropics by 500?hPa geopotential height weather regimes and in the tropics by low-level wind classes. The transfer function further combined to an analog step is then used to reconstruct all the surface variables fields over 1958?C2002. We show that the proposed hybrid scheme is very skillful in reproducing the mean state, the seasonal cycle and the temporal evolution of all the surface ocean variables at interannual timescale. Deficiencies are found in the level of variance especially in the tropics. It is underestimated for 2-m temperature and humidity as well as for surface radiative fluxes in the interannual frequency band while it is slightly overestimated at higher frequency. Decomposition in empirical orthogonal function (EOF) shows that the spatial and temporal coherence of the forcing fields is however very well captured by the reconstruction method. For dynamical downscaling purposes, reconstructed fields are then interpolated and used to carry out a high-resolution oceanic simulation using the NATL4 (1/4°) model integrated over 1979?C2001. This simulation is compared to a reference experiment where the original observed forcing fields are prescribed instead. Mean states between the two experiments are virtually undistinguishable both in terms of surface fluxes and ocean dynamics estimated by the barotropic and the meridional overturning streamfunctions. The 3-dimensional variance of the simulated ocean is well preserved at interannual timescale both for temperature and salinity except in the tropics where it is underestimated. The main modes of interannual variability assessed through EOF are correctly reproduced for sea surface temperature, barotropic streamfunction and mixed layer depth both in terms of spatial structure and temporal evolution. Collectively, our results provide evidence that the statistical?Cdynamical scheme presented in this two-part study is an efficient and promising tool to infer oceanic changes (in particular those related to the wind-driven circulation) due to modifications in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. As a prerequisite, we have here validated the method for present-day climate; we encourage its use for climate change studies with some adaptations though.     

(八)A.I.D.方法的一般理论

第七讲的方法,如果不是用极差进行分割,而是用变差进行分割,就成为一般书上所说的A.I.D.方法(筛选因子的一个新方法)。实际上,A.I.D.方法仅仅是最优分割法的一种灵活运用。为了能比较清楚地说明这一点,我们就依照一般书上的写法来介绍A.I.D.方法,然后,再说明它与最优分割法的关系。     

Meteorological scenario of Ethiopian floods in 2006�C2007

The meteorological scenario of Ethiopian highlands floods is studied. Daily rainfall in the period 1997?C2007 reveals two peaks: 23?C28 July 2006 and 26?C31 July 2007. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) composites suggest that anomalous southerly monsoon flow over the West Indian Ocean is re-directed by an anomalous Arabian ridge westward across the Red Sea and Ethiopia. A tongue of moisture stretches from the Congo towards the highlands, but westerly equatorial wind anomalies are absent. Anomalous sinking motions and dry conditions are evident over the West Indian Ocean. Diurnal analysis reveals northwesterly flow over eastern Sudan during afternoon hours, whilst back-trajectory analysis highlights a Red Sea source and lifting over the eastern escarpment of Ethiopia. The upper level tropical easterly jet connects Indian and Ethiopian rainfall at intra-seasonal (~40?days) time scale; whilst low-level meridional flow convergence is evident during flood events. Hovmoller analysis on 10°N reveals cyclonic signals propagating westward from the Arabian Sea at 500?km?day^?1 that produces a 10-day cycle in Ethiopian rainfall. The floods in 2006?C2007 occurred at the peak of the annual cycle, with diurnal controls inducing ? of rain in the late evening. Whilst cold surges from southern Africa played a role in the 2006 flood, bursts in the northern Hadley cell are a more general determinant. The convection associated with the 2007 flood went on to become a destructive Atlantic hurricane.     

Spatial prediction of urban�Crural temperatures using statistical methods

Spatial information on climatic characteristics is beneficial in e.g. regional planning, building construction and urban ecology. The possibility to spatially predict urban?Crural temperatures with statistical techniques and small sample sizes was investigated in Turku, SW Finland. Temperature observations from 36 stationary weather stations over a period of 6?years were used in the analyses. Geographical information system (GIS) data on urban land use, hydrology and topography served as explanatory variables. The utilized statistical techniques were generalized linear model and boosted regression tree method. The results demonstrate that temperature variables can be robustly predicted with relatively small sample sizes (n????20?C40). The variability in the temperature data was explained satisfactorily with few accessible GIS variables. Statistically based spatial modelling provides a cost-efficient approach to predict temperature variables on a regional scale. Spatial modelling may aid also in gaining novel insights into the causes and impacts of temperature variability in extensive urbanized areas.     

Vol.11 No.1 1994 CONTENTS

NO.1The Vertical Transport of Air Pollutants by Convective Clouds Part II:Transport of Soluble Gases and Sensitivity Tests ………………………………………………………………………Kong Fanyou(孔凡铀)(1)The Vertical Transport ofAir Pollutants by Convective Clouds Cloud Systems …·…………………………………………··Part III:Transport Features of Different Kong Fanvou(孔凡铀)and 0h Yu(秦瑜)(1 3)Study on Atmospheric Ozone in East Asia with Satellite Observation ……………………………     

Vol.19 No.1 2002 CONTENTS

Instability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-ENSO RelationsW ang Huijun (3E％) ......................................................................................................... 1-1 1Associations between the Western North Pacific Monsoon and the South China Sea Monsoon LuRiyu (ffiBf\Chan-Su Ryu, and Buwen Dong .................................................................. 12-24Parameterization of Longwave Optical Properties for Water CloudsWangHongqi (fiEJg-t) an…     

Comment on “Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis” by Xiaolan L. Wang,Y. Feng,G. P. Compo,V. R. Swail,F. W. Zwiers,R. J. Allan,and P. D. Sardeshmukh,Climate Dynamics, 2012

The main subject of this article is to comment on the issue of storminess trends derived from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and from observations in the North Atlantic region written about in Wang et al. (Clim Dyn 40(11–12):2775–2800, 2012). The statement that the 20CR estimates would be consistent with storminess derived from pressure-based proxies does not hold for the time prior to 1950.     

An assessment of monsoon precipitation changes during 1901�C2001

Changes of global land monsoon precipitation are assessed by using three sets of rain-gauge precipitation data for the period of 1901?C2002 compiled by GPCC, CRU and Dai-dataset, respectively. The three datasets show consistent long-term changes of precipitation over the monsoon region with slightly different amplitudes. During 1901?C2001, global land monsoon precipitation (GMI) exhibits multi-decadal variations, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955, followed by a decreasing trend up to 2001. The upward trends of global and Northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation during 1901?C1955 are mainly resulted from the increased precipitation over the North African, Indian and East Asian monsoon domains. For the whole period of 1901?C2001, precipitation averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and global land monsoon areas both exhibit a decreasing trend although it is only statistically significant at the 5% level for the Northern Hemisphere. The robust decreasing trend of Northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitations during the twentieth century mainly comes from the downward trend of North African and eastern part of Indian monsoon precipitation and occurs mainly after the 1950s. The first leading mode of Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of precipitation annual range features a coherent change of North African, South Asian, Northeast China, southern South African, eastern Australian and western American monsoon, and a coherent change over the equatorial South African monsoon and eastern American monsoon. The corresponding principal component time series also indicate that the majority of global land monsoon precipitation has experienced an increasing tendency from 1901 to 1955 and a decreasing trend since the 1950s. Examination on the impact of station number change indicates a negligible influence on the results, especially after 1905.     

爱格耐F.M.EXNER传

二月七日(民国十九年)平旦,奥大利中央气象学及地力学研究院院长,维也纳大学大地物理学教授爱格耐卒於维也纳。一心悸病,而促其寿纪,而当代气象学,丧一硕儒,而德意志气象学者之林,丧一模楷,而故旧朋好,丧一信友。年来爱格耐君,体气日渐颓败,凡有幸得     

Monsoon intraseasonal oscillation and land�Catmosphere interaction in an idealized model

A simple coupled model is used in a zonally-symmetric configuration to investigate the effect of land?Catmosphere coupling on the Asian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation. The atmospheric model is a version of the Quasi-equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model with a prognostic atmospheric boundary layer, as well as two free-tropospheric modes in momentum, and one each in moisture and temperature. The land model is the simple one-layer model SLand. The complete nonlinear version and a linear version of the model are used to understand how land?Catmosphere interaction influences the northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation that has been documented in the atmospheric model (Bellon and Sobel in J Geophys Res 113, 2008a, J Atmos Sci 65:470?C489, 2008b). Our results show that this interaction damps the intraseasonal variability in most cases. The small heat capacity of land surfaces is the main factor that intervenes directly in the dynamics of the intraseasonal oscillation and explains the damping of intraseasonal variability. But in a few peculiar cases, the small heat capacity of land can also cause a strong interaction between the intraseasonal oscillation and the mean state via the nonlinearity of precipitation, that enhances the monsoon intraseasonal variability. High land albedo indirectly influences the intraseasonal variability by setting the seasonal mean circulation to conditions unfavorable for the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation.     

Temporal variation of wind speed in China for 1961�C2007

Monthly observed wind speed data at 597 weather stations and NCEP wind speed data at 10?m above surface were used to explore the temporal variations of the wind speed for 1961?C2007 in China. The results indicate that the temporal variation of annual wind speed in China has experienced four phases: two relatively steady periods from 1961 to 1968 and 1969 to 1974 with a sharp step change in 1969, a statistically significant decline stage from 1974 to 1990s, and another relatively steady period from 1990s to 2007. Except for the sharp step in 1969 being caused by the changes of observation instrument, other breakpoints correspond well with the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. In addition, four different temporal variation patterns of annual wind speed in China have been identified by using cluster analysis and their spatial distributions were also explored.