首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 515 毫秒
1.
采用美国NOAA卫星观测OLR (outing longwave radiation)资料以及NCEP/NCAR、CM AP月平均资料,利用合成分析等方法,研究了热带西北太平洋(125°~140°E,10°~20°N)与热带东南印度洋(90°~105°E,5°~15°S)对流活动异常的联系。结果表明:热带西北太平洋与东南印度洋对流活动异常的联系有显著的年代际变化; 20世纪80—90年代存在显著的正相关,20世纪90年代至21世纪初有显著的负相关,其后转变为正相关。合成分析表明,热带西北太平洋与东南印度洋对流活动正相关时,两地区均存在反气旋性环流,低层辐散、高层辐合,对流活动弱,不利于降水产生,有降水负异常;当热带西北太平洋与东南印度洋对流活动负相关时,两地区环流异常存在明显差别,热带东南印度洋有正的海温异常,高层辐散、低层辐合,有上升运动,对流活动强,有降水正异常,而热带西北太平洋则相反。热带西北太平洋和热带东南印度洋之间的斜向垂直环流圈将这两个地区联系起来,并决定了这两个地区对流活动负相关关系的形成。  相似文献   

2.
张旭  江静 《大气科学进展》2012,29(2):369-380
Global teleconnections associated with tropical convective activities were investigated, based on monthly data of 29 Northern Hemisphere winters: December, January, February, and March (DJFM). First, EOF analyses were performed on the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) data to characterize the convective ac- tivity variability in the tropical Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The first EOF mode of the convective activity was highly correlated with the ENSO. The second EOF mode had an east-west dipole structure, and the third EOF mode had three convective activity centers. Two distinct teleconnection patterns were identified that were associated, respectively, with the second and third EOF modes. A global primitive equation model was used to investigate the physical mechanism that causes the global circulation anoma- lies. The model responses to anomalous tropical thermal forcings that mimic the EOF patterns matched the general features of the observed circulation anomalies well, and they were mainly controlled by linear processes. The importance of convective activities in the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific to the extended- and long-range forecasting capability in the extratropics is discussed.  相似文献   

3.
The NOAA daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) daily precipitation data are used to study the variation of dominant convection modes and their relationships over Asia, the Indian Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean during the summers from 1997 to 2004. Major findings are as follows: (1) Regression analysis with the OLR indicates the convective variations over Asian monsoon region are more closely associated with the convective activities over the western subtropical Pacific (WSP) than with those over the northern tropical Indian Ocean (NTIO). (2) The EOF analysis of OLR indicates the first mode (EOF1) exhibits the out-of-phase variations between eastern China and India, and between eastern China and the WSP. The OLR EOF1 primarily exhibits seasonal and even longer-term variations. (3) The OLR EOF2 mostly displays in-phase convective variations over India, the Bay of Bengal, and southeastern China. A wavelet analysis reveals intraseasonal variation (ISV) features in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004. However, the effective ISV does not take place in every year and it seems to occur only when the centers of an east--west oriented dipole reach enough intensity over the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. (4) The spatial patterns of OLR EOF3 are more complicated than those of EOF1 and EOF2, and an effective ISV is noted from 1999 to 2004. The OLR EOF3 implies there is added complexity of the OLR pattern when the effective ISV occurs. (5) The correlation analysis suggests the precipitation over India is more closely associated with the ISV, seasonal variations, and even longer-term variations than precipitation occurring over eastern China.  相似文献   

4.
Mechanisms for convective initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) remain poorly understood. During recent years, <50 % of large-scale convectively active episodes over the tropical Indian Ocean have led to MJO initiation. This study explores the structure and evolution of precipitation, diabatic heating, and potential vorticity (PV) that might be used to tell whether an MJO event will be initiated once such a convection episode occurs. Three different cases are studied. As convection becomes active in a large area over the tropical Indian Ocean, early signs favorable for MJO initiation are apparent: a persistent basin-scale coverage in the zonal direction by positive anomalies in precipitation and diabatic heating (in a swallowtail pattern), a persistent vertical dipole of PV generation with cyclonic (anticyclonic) PV generation in the lower (upper) troposphere covering a zonally extended area, and a cyclonic PV anomaly in the midtroposphere with a cyclonic PV pair straddling the equator immediately west of the diabatic heating center. All these signs are robust in the MJO composite but rarely occur all together in a given MJO case. The likelihood of an MJO event following a convective episode over the tropical Indian Ocean depends on how many of these signs occur and how persistent they are. While a preexisting MJO signal is neither a necessary nor a sufficient sign for MJO initiation, an active convective episode over the tropical Indian Ocean is necessary but insufficient for MJO initiation. MJO initiation depends on detailed convective behaviors over the tropical Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

5.
Yamaura  Tsuyoshi  Kajikawa  Yoshiyuki 《Climate Dynamics》2017,48(9-10):3003-3014

A decadal change in activity of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) was identified at a broad scale. The change was more prominent during August–October in the boreal summer. The BSISO activity during 1999–2008 (P2) was significantly greater than that during 1984–1998 (P1). Compared to P1, convection in the BSISO was enhanced and the phase speed of northward-propagating convection was reduced in P2. Under background conditions, warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in P2 were apparent over the tropical Indian Ocean and the western tropical Pacific. The former supplied favorable conditions for the active convection of the BSISO, whereas the latter led to a strengthened Walker circulation through enhanced convection. This induced descending anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. Thermal convection tends to be suppressed by descending anomalies, whereas once an active BSISO signal enters the Indian Ocean, convection is enhanced through convective instability by positive SST anomalies. After P2, the BSISO activity was weakened during 2009–2014 (P3). Compared to P2, convective activity in the BSISO tended to be inactive over the southern tropical Indian Ocean in P3. The phase speed of the northward-propagating convection was accelerated. Under background conditions during P3, warmer SST anomalies over the maritime continent enhance convection, which strengthened the local Hadley circulation between the western tropical Pacific and the southern tropical Indian Ocean. Hence, the convection in the BSISO over the southern tropical Indian Ocean was suppressed. The decadal change in BSISO activity correlates with the variability in seasonal mean SST over the tropical Asian monsoon region, which suggests that it is possible to predict the decadal change.

  相似文献   

6.
应用广西壮族自治区国家气象站降水,NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,NOAA逐日向外长波辐射(OLR)等逐日资料,NOAA-CPC热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)指数等,使用经验正交函数分解方法分析了广西冬季降水的气候特征;用功率谱、带通滤波、相关分析和滞后线性回归等方法,以及定义MJO相关降水事件,研究了广西冬季降水异常偏多年的降水低频特征及其与MJO的联系。(1)广西冬季降水特征以全区一致型分布为主;冬季降水异常偏多年份的逐日降水具有14~26 d的低频周期。(2) MJO强对流在赤道印度洋东部发展并东传到西太平洋热带地区时,广西可出现冬季持续强降水。(3)当MJO异常对流在印度洋东部热带地区产生,中南半岛地区到华南地区上空为异常低频偏南和偏西南气流,有利于降水形成;当印度洋东部热带地区为MJO对流抑制区,华南地区上空为异常低频偏东气流控制,不利于降水产生。(4)华南地区上空大气环流的异常是由热带印度洋地区的MJO对流激发的Rossby波列造成。   相似文献   

7.
8.
The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in 2002, which largely resulted from a major rainfall deficiency in the month of July. While moderate El Nino conditions prevailed during this period, the atmospheric convective activity was anomalously enhanced over northwest and north-central Pacific in the 10–20°N latitude belt; and heavy rainfall occurred over this region in association with a series of northward moving tropical cyclones. Similar out-of-phase rainfall variations over the Indian region and the northwest (NW) Pacific have been observed during other instances of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The dynamical linkage corresponding to this out-of-phase rainfall variability is explored in this study by conducting a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model. The results from the model simulations lend credence to the role of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in forcing the out-of-phase precipitation variability over the NW Pacific and the Indian monsoon region. It is seen that the ENSO induced circulation response reveals an anomalous pattern comprising of alternating highs and lows which extend meridionally from the equatorial region into the sub-tropic and mid-latitude regions of west-central Pacific. This meridional pattern is associated with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over NW Pacific, which is found to favor enhanced tropical cyclonic activity and intensified convection over the region. In turn, the intensified convection over NW Pacific induces subsidence and rainfall deficiency over the Indian landmass through anomalous east-west circulation in the 10–20°N latitude belt. Based on the present findings, it is suggested that the convective activity over NW Pacific is an important component in mediating the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection dynamics.  相似文献   

9.
Possible relationships between MJO and the severe rain-snow weather in Eastern China during November of 2009 are analyzed and results show that a strong MJO process is one of the strong impact factors.MJO is very active over the Indian Ocean in November 2009.Especially,it maintains 9 days in MJO phase 3,just corresponding to the two strongest rain-snow processes.Composites of MJO events show that when the MJO convective center is located over the Indian Ocean,the probability of rainfall is significantly increased and the temperature is lower than normal in eastern China,which is consistent with the situation in November of 2009.Atmospheric circulation anomalies of mid-and higher-latitudes can be influenced by the tropical MJO convection forcing and this influence could be realized by teleconnection.When the MJO is over the Indian Ocean,it is favorable for the maintenance of a circulation pattern of two ridges versus one trough at mid-and higher-latitudes.Meanwhile,the western Pacific subtropical high is stronger and more westward than normal,and a significant convective belt appears over eastern East Asia.All these circulation anomalies shown in the composite result also appeared in the observations in November 2009,which indicates the general features of relationships between the MJO and the circulation anomalies over the extratropics.Besides the zonal circulation anomalies,the MJO convection can also lead to meridional circulation anomalies.When the MJO convection is located over the Indian Ocean,the western Pacific is dominated by anomalous descending motion,and the eastern East Asia is controlled by strong convergence and ascending motion.Therefore,an anomalous meridional circulation is formed between the tropics and middle latitudes,enhancing the northward transportation of low-level moisture.It is potentially helpful to understanding and even forecasting such kind of rain-snow weather anomalies as that in November 2009 using MJO.  相似文献   

10.
The different effects of anomalous convective activities in the tropical western Pacific on two persistent heavy rain events in South China in 2005 and 2006 have been compared in this study. The dataused consist of NOAA Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data, the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and precipitation from meteorological stations in South China. Results show that the persistent heavy rain in 2005 was related to the 10-25-day westward propagation of convective activities in the tropical western Pacific from about 150 °E. The physical mechanism is interpreted as a Gill-type response of subtropical anticyclone westward extension during weak convective activities period over the Philippine Sea. Our researches also show that the persistent heavy rain in 2006 has longer period than that in 2005, and the subtropical anticyclone persists westward in the earlier summer which is possibly related to the lasting anomalous strong convective motion in the southern branch of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropic western Pacific. The anomalous convective activities affect the local Hadley circulation over the western Pacific with anomalous ascending motion south of the equator and anomalous descend motion north of it, in favor of the westward extension of the subtropical anticyclone for a long time. Comparison between the two persistent heavy rain events indicates different physical effects of convective activities in the tropical western Pacific, though both effects are helpful to the subtropical anticyclone westward extension as a common character of large-scale circulation backgrounds for persistent heavy rain events in South China.  相似文献   

11.
利用NCEP/NCAR 1 000~10 hPa 2.5 (×2.5 (的再分析资料,分析了与西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)东西进退相关系的热带对流层上空东风带扰动(简称EV)的结构和演变特征.结果表明:西太副高与其南侧的东风带扰动存在同时西进的过程,当西太副高南、北两侧的东、西风带上的扰动在相向运动中抵达同一经度上时,西太副高出现异常东退.热带对流层上空东风带扰动为中高层天气系统,它从对流层中层伸展到50 hPa高度附近,在200 hPa上表现得最为明显,在热力场上表现出"上暖强下冷弱"的垂直分布特征;在西太副高东退时,东风带扰动东西侧的辐散效应和垂直运动的性质发生了显著变化,东风带扰动中心附近的垂直速度场出现从上升运动到向下下沉运动转化的过程.  相似文献   

12.
利用1979~2013年6~8月的西南地区东部20个台站日降水量资料、逐日MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation)指数、全球OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation)逐日格点资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析日资料,采用合成分析和线性回归等方法,对夏季MJO不同位相活动影响西南地区东部夏季降水的原因及其可能机制进行了初步分析。研究表明,MJO与西南地区东部夏季降水之间存在着显著的关系,当MJO处于第4(第6)位相时,由于西太平洋副高位置偏南(偏北)、向西南地区东部的水汽输送偏多(偏少),在异常上升(下沉)气流影响下,西南地区东部夏季降水偏多(偏少)。MJO影响西南地区东部夏季降水的可能原因是:当MJO处于第4位相时,赤道东印度洋地区上空大气释放凝结潜热,其激发东北向传播的异常波动,进而影响东亚环流,使得西南地区东部出现夏季降水偏多的环流形势,西南地区东部夏季降水增多;但在第6位相时,西太平洋地区上空对流释放的凝结潜热,其激发PJ(太平洋-日本)型Rossby波列,出现不利于西南地区东部夏季降水的环流形势,西南地区东部夏季降水偏少。  相似文献   

13.
Daily rainfall variability over southern Africa (SA) and the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) during the austral summer months has recently been described objectively for the first time, using newly derived satellite products. The principle mode of variability in all months is a dipole structure with bands of rainfall orientated northwest to southeast across the region. These represent the location of cloud bands associated with tropical temperate troughs (TTT). This study objectively identifies major TTT events during November to February, and on the basis of composites off NCEP reanalysis data describes the associated atmospheric structure. The two phases of the rainfall dipole are associated with markedly contrasting circulation patterns. There are also pronounced intra-seasonal variations. In early summer the position of the temperate trough and TTT cloud band alternates between the SWIO and southwest Atlantic. In late summer the major TTT axis lies preferentially over the SWIO, associated with an eastward displacement in the Indian Ocean high. In all months, positive events, in which the TTT cloud band lies primarily over the SWIO, are associated with large-scale moisture flux anomalies, in which convergent fluxes form a pronounced poleward flux along the cloud band. This suggests that TTT events are a major mechanism of poleward transfer of energy and momentum. Moisture transport occurs along three principle paths: (1) the northern or central Indian Ocean (where anomalous fluxes extend eastward to the Maritime Continent), (2) south equatorial Africa and the equatorial Atlantic, (3) from the south within a cyclonic flow around the tropical-temperate trough. The relative importance of (2) is greatest in late summer. Thus, synoptic scale TTT events over SA/SWIO often result from large-scale planetary circulation patterns. Hovmoeller plots show that TTT development coincides with enhanced tropical convection between 10°–30°E (itself exhibiting periodicity of around 5 days), and often with convergence of eastward and westward propagating convection around 40°E. Harmonic analysis of 200 hPa geopotential anomalies show that TTT features are forced by a specific zonally asymmetric wave pattern, with wave 5 dominant or significant in all months except February when quasi-stationary waves 1, 2 and 3 dominate. These findings illustrate the importance of tropical and extratropical dynamics in understanding TTT events. Finally, it is suggested that in November–Januar TTT rainfall over SA/SWIO may be in phase with similar rainfall dipole structures observed in the South Pacific and South Atlantic convergence zones. Received: 11 August 1998 / Accepted: 28 May 1999  相似文献   

14.
Hainan, an island province of China in the northern South China Sea, experienced two sustained rainstorms in October2010, which were the most severe autumn rainstorms of the past 60 years. From August to October 2010, the most dominant signal of Hainan rainfall was the 10–20-day oscillation. This paper examines the roles of the 10–20-day oscillation in the convective activity and atmospheric circulation during the rainstorms of October 2010 over Hainan. During both rainstorms,Hainan was near the center of convective activity and under the influence of a lower-troposphere cyclonic circulation. The convective center was initiated in the west-central tropical Indian Ocean several days prior to the rainstorm in Hainan. The convective center first propagated eastward to the maritime continent, accompanied by the cyclonic circulation, and then moved northward to the northern South China Sea and South China, causing the rainstorms over Hainan. In addition, the westward propagation of convection from the tropical western Pacific to the southern South China Sea, as well as the propagation farther northward, intensified the convective activity over the northern South China Sea and South China during the first rainstorm.  相似文献   

15.
Summary Climatic patterns associated with extreme modes of summer rainfall over southern Africa are investigated using composite techniques. Differences between the wet summers of the mid-1970s and the dry summers of the early 1980s are highlighted. In dry summers both the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) are negatively biased. Composite difference fields of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), sea surface temperature (SST), and upper and lower tropospheric wind are analysed. The OLR difference field indicates the widespread nature of convective variations with a consistent sign in the domain 15–33° S, 0–40° E. An area of opposing sign is conspicuous over the southwest Indian Ocean and represents a dipole, whereby wet summers over southern Africa coincide with dry summers over the adjacent ocean. This dipole behaviour is an expression of the primary mode of interannual climatic variability in the region. SST composite differences are negative over a wide portion of the central equatorial Indian Ocean and SE Atlantic, and positive to the south of Africa where the Agulhas Current flows. Wind composites reveal distinctive circulation differences in the extreme summers considered. In the tropical zone off the east coast of Africa difference vectors indicate upper westerly and lower easterly circulation anomalies, and distinguish a pathway for moist Indian Ocean air. A deep anticyclonic gyre is located over the region of positive SST differences in the sub-tropics to the SE of Africa. The identification of climatic patterns in extreme summers offers some useful guidelines in seasonal forecasts.With 6 Figures  相似文献   

16.
This paper analyzes the possible influence of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/ NAO) on the Indian Ocean upper ocean heat content in summer as well as the summer monsoonal circulation. The strong interannual co-variation between winter 1000-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere and summer ocean heat content in the uppermost 120 m over the tropical Indian Ocean was investigated by a singular decomposition analysis for the period 1979–2014. The second paired-modes explain 23.8% of the squared covariance, and reveal an AO/NAO pattern over the North Atlantic and a warming upper ocean in the western tropical Indian Ocean. The positive upper ocean heat content enhances evaporation and convection, and results in an anomalous meridional circulation with ascending motion over 5°S–5°N and descending over 15°–25°N. Correspondingly, in the lower troposphere, significantly anomalous northerly winds appear over the western Indian Ocean north of the equator, implying a weaker summer monsoon circulation. The off-equator oceanic Rossby wave plays a key role in linking the AO/NAO and the summer heat content anomalies. In boreal winter, a positive AO/NAO triggers a down-welling Rossby wave in the central tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric teleconnection. As the Rossby wave arrives in the western Indian Ocean in summer, it results in anomalous upper ocean heating near the equator mainly through the meridional advection. The AO/NAO-forced Rossby wave and the resultant upper ocean warming are well reproduced by an ocean circulation model. The winter AO/NAO could be a potential season-lead driver of the summer atmospheric circulation over the northwestern Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

17.
A dipole pattern in convection between the South Atlantic convergence zone and the subtropical plains of southeastern South America characterizes summer intraseasonal variability over the region. The dipole pattern presents two main bands of temporal variability, with periods between 10 and 30 days, and 30 and 90 days; each influenced by different large-scale dynamical forcings. The dipole activity on the 30–90-day band is related to an eastward traveling wavenumber-1 structure in both OLR and circulation anomalies in the tropics, similar to that associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation. The dipole is also related to a teleconnection pattern extended along the South Pacific between Australia and South America. Conversely, the dipole activity on the 10–30-day band does not seem to be associated with tropical convection anomalies. The corresponding circulation anomalies exhibit, in the extratropics, the structure of Rossby-like wave trains, although their sources are not completely clear.  相似文献   

18.
The first-branch northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation (FNISO) over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) often triggers the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. In this study we investigate the structures and mechanisms associated with FNISO through the diagnosis of ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period of 1990–2009. A composite analysis is conducted to reveal the structure and evolution characteristics of the FNISO and associated background circulation changes. It is found that the FNISO convection originates from the southwestern IO and propagates eastward. After reaching the eastern IO, the major convective branch moves northward toward the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB). Two possible mechanisms may contribute to the northward propagation of the FNISO. One is the meridional asymmetry of the background convective instability. A greater background convective instability over the northern BoB may destabilize Rossby waves and cause convection to shift northward. The other is the meridional phase leading of perturbation humidity in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Maximum PBL moisture appears to the north of the convection center, which promotes a convectively unstable stratification ahead of the convection and leads to the northward propagation of the FNISO. A PBL moisture budget analysis reveals that anomalous zonal advection is a dominant process in contributing to the moisture asymmetry.  相似文献   

19.
利用1979~2013年实时多要素MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation)监测(RMM)指数,美国NOAA逐日长波辐射资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,分析了全球变化背景下北半球冬季MJO传播的年代际变化特征。从全球平均气温快速增暖期(1985~1997)到变暖趋缓期(2000~2012),MJO 2~4位相频次减少,5~7位相频次增多,即MJO对流活跃区在热带印度洋地区停留时间缩短、传播速度加快,而在热带西太平洋停留时间加长、传播明显减缓。进一步分析发现,以上MJO的年代际变化特征与全球变化年代际波动有关。当太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)处于负位相时,全球变暖趋缓,热带东印度洋—西太平洋海温异常偏暖,使其上空对流加强,垂直上升运动加强,对流层低层辐合,大气中的水汽含量增多,该区域的湿静力能(MSE)为正异常。当MJO对流活跃区位于热带印度洋地区时,MJO异常环流对季节平均MSE的输送在强对流中心东侧为正、西侧为负,有利于东侧MSE扰动增加,使得MJO对流扰动东移加快;而当MJO对流活跃区在热带西太平洋地区,MJO异常环流对平均MSE的输送形成东负西正的形势,东侧MSE扰动减小,不利于MJO快速东传。因此,全球变化背景下PDO引起的大气中水汽含量及MSE的变化可能是MJO传播年代际变化的重要原因。  相似文献   

20.
Increased evidence has shown the important role of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Persistent anomalies of summer Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) act to link the Atlantic SST anomalies (SSTAs) to ENSO. The Atlantic SSTAs are strongly correlated with the persistent anomalies of summer MJO, and possibly affect MJO in two major ways. One is that an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation appears over the tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with positive (negative) SSTA in spring, and it intensifies (weakens) the Walker circulation. Equatorial updraft anomaly then appears over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean, intensifying MJO activity over these regions. The other involves a high pressure (low pressure) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic SSTA tripole pattern that is transmitted to the mid- and low-latitudes by a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, leading to strong (weak) convective activity of MJO over the Indian Ocean. The above results offer new viewpoints about the process from springtime Atlantic SSTA signals to summertime atmospheric oscillation, and then to the MJO of tropical atmosphere affecting wintertime Pacific ENSO events, which connects different oceans.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号