塔里木油田地区大型工程设计中气象水文参数研究

根据塔里木盆地外围近40个气象、水文测站36年（1961－1696年）冬季和夏季平均气温、平均气压、平均相对湿度、日照时数、年日照时数、最大洪峰流量等气象永文资料和塔里木盆地腹部6个短期观测站10年（1988－1997年）气象资料,对塔里木油田地区大型工程设计中气象水文参数及设计值进行了系统的研究。建立了塔里木油田地区冬、夏季及年日照时数预测方程,分别为：y1＝－379801＋2．7655E、y7＝-304．7381＋15．0241N;y年＝-2345．0630＋66．0556N＋31．5592E。在此基础上,以气象水文要素预测方程和概率模式揭示塔里木油田地区气象水文参数及设计值分布规律。结果表明：塔里木油田地区冬夏季代表月平均气温、平均气压、日照时数随着经纬度和海拔高度的变化而变化;塔里木油田北部最大洪峰流量遵循P-Ⅲ分布。并进行Tk—s检验,通过年达100％。     

广西1998年度气候影响评价

１９９８年度（１９９７年１２月至１９９８年１１月）平均气温１７．３～２４．１℃,属显著偏高到异常偏高;年降水量８２３～３１３０ｍｍ,北部、东部正常到偏多,西部、南部正常到偏少;年日照时数为１０６３～２２６３ｈ,大部地区偏少１００～３５０ｈ。１９９８年度主要气象灾害以洪涝最为突出,其次是干旱、冰雹与大风。全年气温显著偏高,降水前多后少,日照前少后多,洪涝灾害严重,对农业生产的影响利弊同存,属正常到偏好年景。     

太阳能电站日照时数推算

根据塔里木油气管道沿线周围近２０个气象测站３６年（１９６１～１９９６年）日照时数和经纬度及海拔高度资料,采用逐步回归方法,建立了塔里同气管道沿线年日照时数推长模式为ｙ＝－２３４５．０６３０＋６６．０５５６ψ＋３１．５５９２λ。在此基础上,应用统计学导出的极值分布（Ⅰ型分布）概率模式对塔里木油气管道中间站的太阳能电站的年日照时数不同概率设计值进行推算。由此揭示了塔里木盆地年日照时分布规律。建议以年日     

新疆建筑工程设计中风研究及其应用

应用熵最大原理导出的概率模式研究了新疆建筑工程设计中最大风速的分布规律,并通过近１００个气象观测站３６年（１９６１～１９９６年）资料的分析,发现新疆最大风速若干规律性,在此基础上,建立了新疆风压系数预测模式为：Ｗ０＝０．０６１３ｅ＾－０．０００１ｈ,以预测模式和概率模式揭示了新疆风压分布特征。结果表明：新疆大多数气象观测站的最大风速遵循Γ分布;新疆风压系数随海拔高度的增加呈指数率减少;新疆风压分布     

广西1998年度气候影响评价

１９９８年度平均气温１７。３－２４。１℃,属显著偏高到异常偏高;年降水量８２３０３１３０ｍｍ,北部,东部正常到偏多,西部,南部正常到偏少,年日照时数为１０６３－２２６３ｈ,大部地区偏少１００－３５０ｈ。１９９８年度主要气象灾害以洪涝最为突出,其次是干旱,冰雹与大风。全年气温显著偏高,降水前多后少,日照前少后多,洪涝灾害严重,对农业生产的影响利弊同存,属正常到偏好年景。     

华南冬季特大冷害500hPa高度场和海温场特征分析

本文从华南冬季月平均气温入手,挑选出各月的特大冷害个例３个,分析它们与５００ｈＰａ高度场和海温场的关系,从而寻找预测用的强信号。寒潮是小概率事件,特大低温冷害更是罕见的小概率事件。它的样本序列太短,统计特征不明显,是本研究工作的困难所在。１　资　料　　１９５８～１９９５年５００ｈＰａ高度场资料（２－５°×２－５°）和海温资料（１°×１°）取自美国国家大气研究中心的再分析资料（ＮＣＡＲ／ＮＣＥＰ）。华南冬季各月平均气温用１５个站（厦门、梅县、汕头、曲江、河源、广州、阳江、湛江、海口、桂林、柳州、梧…     

1998年冬季我区气候影响评价

１气候概况今年冬季（１９９８年１２月～１９９９年２月）全区平均气温持续偏高,又是一个暖冬。降水量大部分地区偏少,西部地区基本无降水。由于暖冬少降水,土壤失墒,旱情显现。１．１气温冬季全区性降温、降雪天气较少,平均气温持续偏高,呼盟西部地区偏高４～６℃...     

1997.12—1998.2冬季天气气候回顾

１９９７．１２～１９９８．２冬季天气气候回顾王素卿赵润娥李拽英（山西省气象台０３０００６）（山西省气象局０３０００２）１概况冬季（１９９７．１２～１９９８．２）我省气温偏高,降水偏少。具有暖冬之称。季平均气温：北部高寒地区为－８．３～－１０．４℃;北...     

气象条件对杂交籼稻开花结实期的影响

分析了中籼迟熟杂交水稻在干旱高温年份开花结实与气象条件的关系： （１）８ 月上旬开花期旬平均气温２４．５～２６．５℃产量较高, 稳产丰产性较好; （２）８ 月上旬开花期日照较多, 降水较少, 湿度适宜, 有利于提高结实率; （３）开花后３０ ｄ 平均气温２３．１～２５．３℃、平均最高气温＜３１．９℃、日照１５５．３～２１３．８ ｈ 有利于灌浆结实, 平均气温＞ ２６．９℃、平均最高气温＞ ３３℃、日照＜ １５１．２ ｈ 秕粒率增加, 粒重下降。由此提出促进适期开花结实的高产技术措施。     

1994年冬季（12月至95年2月）山东天气评述

１９９４年冬季（１２月至９５年２月）山东天气评述邹树峰（山东省气象台．济南．２５００３１）１天气概况１９９４年冬季（１２月至９５年２月）天气十分温和，整个冬季全省平均气温为０．９℃，较常年偏高１．７℃，属典型的暖冬年份。降水偏少，全省总降水量鲁南、鲁...     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

Information for Authors

正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

INFORMATION FOR AUTHORS

正Aims Scope Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS)is an international journal on the dynamics,physics,and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean with papers across the full range of the atmospheric sciences,co-published bimonthly by Science Press and Springer.The journal includes Articles,Note and Correspondence,and Letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.