县级气象台站预报服务系统的研制与应用

通过对MICAPS资料本地化、上级信息网络资料本地化、本地资料信息格式化等技术处理，开放式、易移植性程序设计、配置外部程序接口等技术途径，研制出一套县级预报业务服务系统，为基层气象台站预报和服务发挥了重大作用。     

9210工程地方市（县）级数据传输处理本地化的若干问题

经过一年多的业务运行，我们发现MICAPS系统在数据传输处理中存在不尽完善的地方，造成数值预报产品残缺不全；由于数据传输处理未作配置本地化或配置本地化不完善，致使数值预报产品和实况资料的分析范围、等值线间距、时效、层次等不能满足本地预报业务工作的需要。针对上述存在的问题，本文介绍了资料传输、处理有关配置文本本地化的方法。使数值预报产品有用率在原有基础上增加了约一倍。     

基于MICAPS系统预报流程的实现

给出温州海洋气象台在MICAPS系统功能如综合图定义、预报制作及管理、打印等本地化应用基础上,建立新预报业务工作流程的思路和作法。     

MICAPS的大连本地化工作及应用

1引言MICAPS系统是气象卫星综合应用工程即9210工程中重要的组成部分,它集数据的采集、转换、成图、分析、产品制作于一体,为预报员提供了一个完整的工作平台。但MICAPS系统要真正发挥它的效益,还需要各级台站进行大量本地化工作。大连市气象台自1997年引进天气预报人机交互处理系统（MICAPS）软件后,在建立了卫星通信网的基础上,初步建立了基于MICAPS工作平台上的短期预报工作流程,并开始着手MICAPS的本地化工作,同时不断地应用在预报业务工作中。事实证明,作为工作平台的MICAPS系统已发挥效益。2本地化工作2．1首…     

9210工程地市(县)级数据传输处理本地化的若干问题

经过一年多的业务运行，我们发现MICAPS系统在数 据传输处理 中存在不尽完善的地方，造成数值预报产品残缺不全；由于数据传输处理未作配置本地化或 配置本地化不完善，致使数值预报产品和实况资料的分析范围、等值线间距、时效、层次等 不能满足本地预报业务工作的需要。针对上述存在的问题，本文介绍了资料传输、处理有关 配置文本本地化的方法。使数值预报产品有用率在原有基础上增加了约一倍。     

ECMWF产品逐日降水客观预报业务系统

选用ECMWF格点场资料,用差分法、天气诊断、因子组合等方法构造能反映本地天气动力学特征的预报因子库,对预报因子和预报量进行线性（0,1）标准化处理,采用PRESS准则初选因子,用最优子集回归建立0~120 h降水预报方程,用多因子概率权重回归预测其降水概率。预报系统投入业务应用,检验证明预报效果较好,提供了有效的地市级客观预报指导产品。业务系统与MICAPS对接,实现全自动化,输出的预报产品客观、定量。     

MICAPS数据监视及控制传输处理程序开发

利用Visual Basic 6.0作为编程工具,以MICAPS系统中的T213、欧洲数值预报解码程序为基础,根据四川省气象台业务的实际情况开发的本程序,可以随时监视并直观显示MICAPS系统中的数值预报数据传输和处理情况,并根据所需能分类按局部传输或处理数值预报数据,提高了数据传输时效,给MICAPS系统的数据维护带来了方便.     

MICAPS应用及其二次开发的几点体会

介绍了 MICAPS本地化改造过程中的相关技术方法 ,包括建立合理的时间表文件DATATIME.TAB和 WS.DAT,修改不适应业务需要的批处理 ,建立各类地理信息的地图线条数据和综合图 ,修改 MICAPS系统外观 ,以及本地数据在 MICAPS的应用经验     

MICAPS在实际天气预报中的应用

现在已确定MICAPS系统为预报员的工作平台,本文结合实际论述预报员在预报工作中运用MICAPS系统的一些经验、体会、特别是在MICAPS系统中将天气图实况场同数值预报产品有机地结合,详细地介绍了综合指标方法在降水分级预报中应用研究和综合指标方法.     

MICAPS数据监视及控制传输处理程序开发

利用Visual Basic6．0作为编程工具，以MICAPS系统中的T213欧洲数值预报解码程序为基础，根据四川省气象台业务的实际情况开发的本程序，可以随时监视并直观显示MICAPS系统中的数值预报数据传输和处理情况，并根据所需能分类按局部传输或处理数值预报数据，提高了数据传输时效，给MICAPS系统的数据维护带来了方便。     

焉耆盆地种植冬小麦气候可行性分析

摘要：焉耆盆地种植冬小麦关键在于越冬期气象条件能否保证冬麦安全越冬。通过对焉耆县近60a来冬季气候变化特征分析,年极端最低气温总体呈上升趋势,趋势变化率为0．67℃／10a;极端最低气温与积雪深度成明显的反相关,相关系数r=-0．62,即没有积雪的年份最低气温一般不会特别低;60a中积雪深度不到5cm且最低气温低于-24℃的概率只有14％,正常年份焉耆盆地种植强抗寒性冬麦品种可以安全越冬。2008、2009年冬季偏暖,无稳定积雪覆盖,极端最低气温分别为-17．9℃、-21℃,试种冬麦均获得成功。     

单多普勒雷达风场反演的扩展VAP方法(Ⅰ): 方法与对比试验

利用构造的均匀和涡旋风场模拟了单多普勒雷达径向风资料,分析了VAP方法对不同类型风场的反演能力,发现VAP方法对均匀风场反演能力很强,而对涡旋风场反演效果较差,这主要与该方法局地均匀风假定有关。据此,针对不满足VAP方法假定条件的局地非均匀风场,提出了扩展VAP方法,并用模拟资料进行了对比试验,结果表明,扩展VAP方法能显著提高局地非均匀风场的反演能力,反演风场在风速大小和方向上都更趋于合理。通过实例反演以及与双多普勒雷达反演结果对比,进一步证实了扩展VAP方法的反演能力。     

陕北生态治理对当地降水影响的数值模拟

利用中尺度模式MM5V3．5模拟了陕北地区两种植被改进方案对一次降雨过程的敏感性试验,结果表明,陕北植被改善后,能够使区域性降雨的雨带北移,平均降水量增加,降雨时间延长。另外,还分别从环流、大气稳定性、水汽条件、垂直运动等四个方面对上述变化的机理进行了分析,认为植被治理使背景环流的气旋性增强,低层大气不稳定范围向北增强扩展,高空风场辐合汇集的水汽增多,同时垂直上升运动有所增强,导致局地雨带北移、降雨量增加、降雨时间延长。模拟结果同时表明,下垫面生态治理的范围和规模越大,上述影响也越显著。     

Transformative potential in sustainable development goals engagement: Experience from local governance in Australia

Localising the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is often associated with the act of localising goals, targets and indicators, as well as the activities to measure and monitor progress. However, local communities worldwide are starting to engage with the SDGs by other means, for example, by incorporating the SDGs into local governance. In these efforts to make the SDGs part of an existing local governance process, which we call SDG engagement, the SDGs can be valued differently. They can be valued for their potential to support a widespread and fundamental change in society (the SDG transformative potential) or for their moderate addition to ongoing practices and activities (the SDG conventional value). Currently, how local governments can engage with the SDGs in different local governance activities is underexplored. This study introduces eight modes through which local governments can engage with the SDGs in local governance and discuss the unique transformative potential of those engagements via synthesising knowledge across 14 empirical studies of local communities in Australia. Building on the findings of this study, we propose a framework to aid SDG engagement in local governance activities, highlighting the transformative potential of the engagements. The study highlights the need for future explorations on the opportunities to enact a deliberate and more ambitious transformation driven by governance institutions.     

局地蒸发和外部水汽输送对松花江流域夏季降水的贡献

本文基于Brubaker二元模型,采用JRA-55再分析资料定量研究了局地蒸发和外部水汽输送对松花江流域夏季气候态降水及其年际变率的相对贡献,并探讨了相应的物理机制。气候平均而言,外部水汽输送是松花江流域初夏（5～6月）和盛夏（7～8月）降水的最主要水汽源。受西风带影响,初夏自西边界进入松花江流域的水汽贡献占主导,外部水汽输送对当地降水的贡献为78.9%,源自蒸发的水汽贡献为21.1%。较之初夏,由于盛夏来自南边界的水汽输送加倍,外部水汽输送贡献增加,外部水汽输送和蒸发对降水贡献分别为86%和14%。JRA-55再分析资料可以合理再现观测降水演变,1961～2016年JRA-55再分析资料降水与观测在初夏与盛夏的相关系数分别可以达到0.73和0.83。研究发现,初夏,由于西南季风异常导致的南边界进入的水汽输送异常是松花江流域降水年际变率的主要原因,自西边界、北边界进入的水汽输送与降水呈现显著负相关,初夏局地蒸发的贡献不显著,该水汽输送异常对应的环流型易发生在El Ni?o衰减年初夏。盛夏来自南边界的水汽输送起主导作用,局地蒸发贡献与降水变化显著负相关,海温强迫作用对该环流异常的强迫并不显著,中高纬度大气内部变率影响占主导。由于盛夏降水与地表温度在盛夏期间显著负相关,盛夏时期降水偏少时,温度偏高,蒸发偏强,进而蒸发水汽对降水贡献增加。     

Riders under storms: Contributions of nomadic herders’ observations to analysing climate change in Mongolia

Predictions of climate change and its impacts are highly uncertain at regional and local levels. Downscaled models often operate with a too coarse scale and look at standard parameters that may be irrelevant to resource-dependent people. This article argues that a more robust analysis and prediction of climate change at local levels can be inferred from the integration of local people's observation of change with meteorological records and models.The example proposed here is the analysis of climate change in the desert-steppe region of Mongolia. While regional models and local analyses agree that Mongolia has become warmer, predictions either ignore or are contradictory about the changes in precipitations and sand storms. The Mongolian pastoral nomads on the other hand identify longer and more intense droughts and sand storms as the most important recent climatic changes, relevant to their livelihoods. In addition, they record detailed changes in the precipitations regime. Thus, they are unequivocal that rains have become patchy – ‘silk embroidery rains’ – (forcing pastoralists to move farther and more frequently), more intense (thus less effective due to runoff) and that summer rains are delayed (reducing the growing season).The observations of the pastoralists can only partly be investigated in light of meteorological records due to different parameters observed by the two systems. Nevertheless, additional evidence derived from the analysis of meteorological records resonates with the perceptions of the herders and adds elements for further investigation. This combined evidence suggests that due to a southern shift of the East Asian Monsoon, rains in southern Mongolia rely on re-circulated local moisture, leading to large-scale droughts and in turn more frequent sand storms.The analysis provided herein shows that combining the two knowledge systems (local people's observations and climatology) holds the potential to provide more reliant and relevant investigations of climate change and allow for better planned adaptations.     

Modelling the arctic convective boundary-layer with different turbulence parameterizations

Different parameterizations of subgrid-scale fluxes are utilized in a nonhydrostatic and anelastic mesoscale model to study their influence on simulated Arctic cold air outbreaks. A local closure, a profile closure and two nonlocal closure schemes are applied, including an improved scheme, which is based on other nonlocal closures. It accounts for continuous subgrid-scale fluxes at the top of the surface layer and a continuous Prandtl number with respect to stratification. In the limit of neutral stratification the improved scheme gives eddy diffusivities similar to other parameterizations, whereas for strong unstable stratifications they become much larger and thus turbulent transports are more efficient. It is shown by comparison of model results with observations that the application of simple nonlocal closure schemes results in a more realistic simulation of a convective boundary layer than that of a local or a profile closure scheme. Improvements are due to the nonlocal formulation of the eddy diffusivities and to the inclusion of heat transport, which is independent of local gradients (countergradient transport).     

局地相似性在近地面层大气中的一个应用

利用Ｕ．Ｈｏｇｓｔｒｏｍ教授提供的瑞典Ｕｐｐｓａｌａ大学气象系于１９８６年夏季在Ｕｐｐｓａｌａ市郊农田中观察到的近地面层大气资料，对近地面层大气的局地相似性进行了论证，并给出了一套相似性函数的经验常数。结果表明，局地相似性比Ｍｏｎｉｎ－Ｏｂｕｋｈｏｖ相似性更适合于描述复杂下垫面近地面层大气。     

Linking multi-level governance to local common-pool resource theory using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis: Insights from twenty years of biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica

Understanding the relationship between multi-level institutional linkages and conditions influencing the likelihood of successful collective action has practical and theoretical relevance to sustainable local resource governance. This paper studies the relationship between multi-level linkages and local autonomy, a facilitating condition found to increase the likelihood of local successful collective action. A technique known as fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was applied to a longitudinal comparative data set. In the context of the decentralization of a protected area system in Costa Rica (1986–2006), it traced the emergence and endurance of autonomy among local institutions for biodiversity conservation. The technique illustrates which set of multi-level linkages combined in different ways, and at different points in time, to reach the same outcome (local autonomy). The findings show that a unique set of combinations of multi-level linkages led to the emergence of local autonomy among institutions for biodiversity conservation governance. In contrast, a more diverse set was associated with the endurance of local autonomy over time, suggesting that institutional diversity may play a more prominent role in the maintenance of institutional robustness than in processes of institutional emergence.     

THE TOPOGRAPHIC PARAMETER SENSITIVITY TO VORTICITY PROPAGATION AND TYPHOON TANGENTIAL VELOCITY CHANGES

1 INTRODUCTION Being one of the important factors that govern the track and intensity change of the tropical cyclone (TC) [1, 2], topographic features are closely related with topographic parameters and the speed of latitudinal flows. As shown in a statistical study by Brand et al., with its passage through the islands of the Philippines, the TC begins to decrease the mean maximum surface wind speed from 47 m/s to 45 m/s 4 hours before reaching the Philippines. They also find that when …