Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model

The effect of changes in zonal and meridional atmospheric moisture transports on Atlantic overturning is investigated. Zonal transports are considered in terms of net moisture export from the Atlantic sector. Meridional transports are related to the vigour of the global hydrological cycle. The equilibrium thermohaline circulation (THC) simulated with an efficient climate model is strongly dependent on two key parameters that control these transports: an anomaly in the specified Atlantic–Pacific moisture flux (F_a) and atmospheric moisture diffusivity (K_q). In a large ensemble of spinup experiments, the values of F_a and K_q are varied by small increments across wide ranges, to identify sharp transitions of equilibrium THC strength in a 2-parameter space (between Conveyor On and Off states). Final states from this ensemble of simulations are then used as the initial states for further such ensembles. Large differences in THC strength between ensembles, for identical combinations of F_a and K_q, reveal the co-existence of two stable THC states (Conveyor On and Off)—i.e. a bistable regime. In further sensitivity experiments, the model is forced with small, temporary freshwater perturbations to the mid-latitude North Atlantic, to establish the minimum perturbation necessary for irreversible THC collapse in this bistable regime. A threshold is identified in terms of the forcing duration required. The model THC, in a Conveyor On state, irreversibly collapses to a Conveyor Off state under additional freshwater forcing of just 0.1 Sv applied for around 100 years. The irreversible collapse is primarily due to a positive feedback associated with suppressed convection and reduced surface heat loss in the sinking region. Increased atmosphere-to-ocean freshwater flux, under a collapsed Conveyor, plays a secondary role.     

The intraseasonal oscillation in ECHAM4 Part I: coupled to a comprehensive ocean model

This study discusses the representation of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in three simulations with the ECHAM4 atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). First, the model is forced by AMIP sea surface temperatures (SST), then coupled to the OPYC3 global ocean GCM and third forced by OPYC3 SSTs to clarify possible air-sea interactions and connections of the ISO and the ENSO cycle. The simulations are compared to ECMWF reanalysis data and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations. Although previous studies have shown that the ECHAM4 GCM simulates an ISO-like oscillation, the main deficits are an overly fast eastward propagation and an eastward displacement of the main ISO activity, which is shown with a composite analysis of daily data between 1984 to 1988 for the reanalysis and the AMIP simulation, 25 years of the coupled integration, and a five year subset of the coupled SST output used for the OPYC3 forced atmosphere GCM experiment. These deficits are common to many atmospheric GCMs. The composites are obtained by principal oscillation pattern (POP). The POPs are also used to investigate the propagation speed and the interannual variability of the main ISO activity. The present coupled model version reveals no clear improvements in the ISO simulation compared to the uncoupled version forced with OPYC3 SSTs, although it is shown that the modeled ISO influences the simulated high-frequency SST variability in the coupled GCM. Within the current analysis, ECHAM4 forced by AMIP SSTs provides the most reasonable ISO simulation. However, it is shown that the maximum amplitudes of the annual cycle of the ISO variability in all analyzed model versions are reached too late in the year (spring and summer) compared to the observations (winter and spring). Additionally, the ENSO cycle influences the interannual variability of the ISO, which is revealed by 20 years of daily reanalysis data and 100 years of the coupled integration. The ENSO cycle is simulated by the coupled model, although there is a roughly 1 K cold bias in the East Pacific in the coupled model. This leads to a diminished influence of the ENSO cycle on the spatial variability of the modeled ISO activity compared to observations. This points out the strong sensitivity of the SST on the ISO activity. Small biases in the SST appear to cause large deterioration in the modeled ISO.     

A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM4 AGCM at high resolution: the impact of horizontal resolution on annual mean climate change

 The climate response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, prescribed according to the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a, is studied in two model simulations. The reference simulation is a transient response experiment performed with a medium-resolution (T42) coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC) developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. For two 30-year “time slices”, representing the present-day climate and the future climate at the time of effective CO₂ doubling, the annual mean climate states are compared with those obtained from the high-resolution (T106) ECHAM4 model forced with monthly sea surface temperatures and sea-ice from the coupled model. The large-scale changes in temperature, zonal wind, sea-level pressure and precipitation are broadly similar. This applies, in particular, to the respective zonal means. In general, except for precipitation, the responses in the time-slice experiments are slightly weaker than those simulated in the coupled model due to a smaller effect of the horizontal resolution on the simulations of the future (warmer) period than on the simulations of the present period. On a regional scale, the impact of horizontal resolution is smaller in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere, where the response differences are caused mainly by changes in the positions of the stationary waves. Although the precipitation responses are broadly similar, there are few notable exceptions such as a more pronounced maximum over the equatorial oceans in the T106 experiment but a weaker response over low-latitude land areas. Differences in precipitation response are found especially in areas with strong topographical control such as South America, for example. Received: 17 January 2000 / Accepted: 7 July 2000     

Time-dependent greenhouse warming computations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Climate changes during the next 100 years caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been simulated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios A (business as usual) and D (accelerated policies) using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. In the global average, the near-surface temperature rises by 2.6 K in Scenario A and by 0.6 K in Scenario D. The global patterns of climate change for both IPCC scenarios and for a third step-function 2 x CO₂ experiment were found to be very similar. The warming delay over the oceans is larger than found in simulations with atmospheric general circulation models coupled to mixed-layer models, leading to a more pronounced land-sea contrast and a weaker warming (and in some regions even an initial cooling) in the Southern Ocean. During the first forty years, the global warming and sea level rise due to the thermal expansion of the ocean are significantly slower than estimated previously from box-diffusion-upwelling models, but the major part of this delay can be attributed to the previous warming history prior to the start of present coupled ocean-atmosphere model integration (cold start).     

The transition from the present-day climate to a modern Snowball Earth

We use the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM to investigate the transition from the present-day climate to a modern Snowball Earth, defined as the Earth in modern geography with complete sea-ice cover. Starting from the present-day climate and applying an abrupt decrease of total solar irradiance (TSI) we find that the critical TSI marking the Snowball Earth bifurcation point is between 91 and 94% of the present-day TSI. The Snowball Earth bifurcation point as well as the transition times are well reproduced by a zero-dimensional energy balance model of the mean ocean potential temperature. During the transition, the asymmetric distribution of continents between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere causes heat transports toward the more water-covered Southern Hemisphere. This is accompanied by an intensification of the southern Hadley cell and the wind-driven subtropical ocean cells by a factor of 4. If we set back TSI to 100% shortly before the transition to a modern Snowball Earth is completed, a narrow band of open equatorial water is sufficient for rapid melting. This implies that for 100% TSI the point of unstoppable glaciation separating partial from complete sea-ice cover is much closer to complete sea-ice cover than in classical energy balance models. Stable states can have no greater than 56.6% sea-ice cover implying that ECHAM5/MPI-OM does not exhibit stable states with near-complete sea-ice cover but open equatorial waters.     

A sensitivity experiment for the removal of Arctic sea ice with the French spectral general circulation model

Sea ice has a major influence on climate in high latitudes. In this paper we analyzed the impact of removal of Arctic sea-ice cover on the climate simulated by a T42 20-level version of the French spectral model Emeraude. The control experiment was the second winter of an annual cycle simulation of the present climate. In the perturbed simulation the Arctic sea-ice cover was replaced by open ocean maintained at the freezing temperature of sea water. The zonal mean patterns of the model response were found to be in good agreement with earlier simulations of Fletcher et al. and Warshaw and Rapp. The atmospheric warming, caused by the increase of upward fluxes of sensible and latent heat and of longwave radiation from the ice-free ocean surface, is largely limited to the high latitudes poleward of 70° N and the lower half of the troposphere and leads to a surface pressure decrease and a precipitation increase over this area. We also analyze the geographical distribution of the response and the mechanisms that can explain the simulated cooling over Eurasia in relation to the energy budget at the surface. Finally, we discuss the reduction of cloud cover over the ice-free Arctic, which was an unexpected result of our simulation, and conclude that further studies are necessary to resolve the question of cumulus convection and cloud process parameterization in high latitudes.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Antarctic sea-ice relationships with indices of the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere

A link between the Antarctic sea-ice extent and low-frequency atmospheric variations, particularly ENSO, has been suggested by recent modeling and empirical studies. This question is examined here using a high-resolution (by week, by region) data base of Antarctic sea-ice extent for the 1973–1982 period. Although of relatively short duration by Northern Hemisphere standards, such a data base offers an opportunity rare in Southern Hemisphere climate studies. The seaice variations are examined in the context of longer-term indices of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. These are a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and an index of sea-level pressure (SLP) wavenumber one in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. The indices are updated through 1982, and their associations with regional-scale pressure indices in the Australia-New Zealand sector are also examined. The 1973–1982 period is anomalous when compared with the period 1951–1972. Correlation analysis of the monthly sea ice and circulation index values reveals that much of the apparent link between the ice and the SOI suggested in previous studies arises from autocorrelations present in both data sets and the strong annual cycle of sea-ice extent. Removing these effects from the data and re-running the correlations reveals that most of the resulting significant associations between the ice and one or other of the circulation indices can probably be explained on the basis of chance. In order to reconcile these findings with previous studies that show some strong ice-circulation interactions on regional scales, only those months in which significant correlations occur between both largescale circulation indices and the sea ice are examined further. These occur preferentially in the Ross and Weddell sectors, which constitute the regions contributing most to the variability of Antarctic sea ice. The analysis suggests that the sea-ice-extent changes lag the SOI by several months but may precede changes in extratropical SLP wavenumber one. Confirmation of these tentative regional ice extent-circulation teleconnections necessarily awaits the forward extension of the high-resolution sea-ice data base beyond the 10 years available here.This paper is based on material presented at the Conference on Mechanisms of Interannual and Longer-Term Climatic Variations held at the University of Melbourne, Australia: December 8–12, 1986.     

Research in China on Climate and its variability

Summary The research program Dynamical Climatology and the Theory of Short-Term Climate Prediction supported by the State Committee of Sciences and Technology is introduced. Diagnosis studies on climate variability are summarised. These include the studies on the variability of sea-surface temperature (SST) and its relationship with atmospheric anomalies, on monsoon and seasonal change, and on lowfrequency atmospheric variability.Numerical simulation and model development for climate research, particularly those activities and achievements at LASG, are reported. These include the development and simulation of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), and atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). The ongoing activities concerning the development of climate system model is also presented.With 18 Figures     

Sea-ice and its response to CO2 forcing as simulated by global climate models

The simulation of sea-ice in global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP1 and CMIP2) is analyzed. CMIP1 simulations are of the unpertubed control climate whereas in CMIP2, all models have been forced with the same 1% yr^–1 increase in CO₂ concentration, starting from a near equilibrium initial condition. These simulations are not intended as forecasts of climate change, but rather provide a means of evaluating the response of current climate models to the same forcing. The difference in modeled response therefore indicates the range (or uncertainty) in model sensitivity to greenhouse gas and other climatic perturbations. The results illustrate a wide range in the ability of climate models to reproduce contemporary sea-ice extent and thickness; however, the errors are not obviously related to the manner in which sea-ice processes are represented in the models (e.g. the inclusion or neglect of sea-ice motion). The implication is that errors in the ocean and atmosphere components of the climate model are at least as important. There is also a large range in the simulated sea-ice response to CO₂ change, again with no obvious stratification in terms of model attributes. In contrast to results obtained earlier with a particular model, the CMIP ensemble yields rather mixed results in terms of the dependence of high-latitude warming on sea-ice initial conditions. There is an indication that, in the Arctic, models that produce thick ice in their control integration exhibit less warming than those with thin ice. The opposite tendency appears in the Antarctic (albeit with low statistical significance). There is a tendency for models with more extensive ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere to exhibit greater Antarctic warming. Results for the Arctic indicate the opposite tendency (though with low statistical significance).A list of the CMIP modeling groups is included in the Acknowledgements section.     

Climate change signal analysis for Northeast Asian surface temperature

Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SO42- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the di     

Atmospheric water vapor flux,bifurcation of the thermohaline circulation,and climate change

Latitudinal heat transport in the ocean and atmosphere represents a fundamental process of the Earth's climate system. The ocean component of heat transport is effected by the thermohaline circulation. Changes in this circulation, and hence latitudinal heat transport, would have a significant effect on global climate. Paleoclimate evidence from the Greenland ice cores and deep sea sediment cores suggests that during much of glacial time the climate system oscillated between two different states. Bimodal equilibrium states of the thermohaline circulation have been demonstrated in climate models. We address the question of the role of the atmospheric hydrological cycle on the global thermohaline circulation and the feedback to the climate system through changes in the ocean's latitudinal heat transport, with a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere energy-salt balance model. Two components of the atmospheric hydrological cycle, i.e., latitudinal water vapor transport and the net flux of water vapor from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean appear to play separate roles. If the inter-basin transport is sufficiently large, small changes in water vapor transport over the North Atlantic can effect bifurcation or a rapid transition between two different equilibria in the global thermohaline circulation; maximum difference between the modes occurs in the North Atlantic. If the inter-basin transport is from the Pacific to the Atlantic and sufficiently large, latitudinal vapor transport in the North Pacific controls the bifurcations, with maximum changes occurring in the North Pacific. For intermediate values of inter-basin transport, no rapid transitions occur in either basin. In the regime with vapor flux from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the on mode has strong production of deep water in the North Atlantic and a large flux of heat to the atmosphere from the high latitude North Atlantic. The off mode has strong deep water production in the Southern Ocean and weak production in the North Pacific. Heat transport into the high latitude North Atlantic by the ocean is reduced to about 20% of the on mode value. For estimated values of water vapor transport for the present climate the model asserts that while water vapor transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean is sufficiently large to make the North Atlantic the dominant region for deep water production, latitudinal water vapor transport is sufficiently low that the thermohaline circulation appears stable, i.e., far from a bifurcation point. This conclusion is supported to some extent by the fact that the high latitude temperature of the atmosphere as recorded in the Greenland ice cores has changed little over the last 9000 years.     

Equatorial disturbances,monsoons, and 1982–1983 ENSO

Summary Interannual modes are described in terms of three-month running mean anomaly winds (u,v), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and sea surface temperature (T _* ). Normal atmospheric monsoon circulations are defined by long-term average winds (u _n,v _n) computed every month from January to December. Daily winds are grouped into three frequency bands, i.e., 30–60 day filtered winds (u _L,v _L); 7–20 day filtered winds (u _M,v _M); and 2–6 day filtered winds (u _S,v _S). Three-month running mean anomaly kinetic energy (signified asK _L , K _M , andK _S , respectively) is then introduced as a measure of interannual variation of equatorial disturbance activity. Interestingly, all of theseK _L , K _M , andK _S perturbations propagate slowly eastward with same phase speed (0.3 ms^–1) as ENSO modes. Associated with this eastward propagation is a positive (negative) correlation between interannual disturbance activity (K _L , K _M , K _S ) and interannualu (OLR) modes. Namely, (K _L , K _M , K _S ) becomes more pronounced than usual nearly simultaneously with the arrival of westerlyu and negativeOLR (above normal convection) perturbutions. In these disturbed areas with (K _L , K _M , K _S >0), upper ocean mixing tends to increase, resulting in decreased sea surface temperature, i.e.T _* 0. Thus, groups (not individual) of equatorial disturbances appear to play an important role in determiningT _* variations on interannual time scales. HighestT _* occurs about 3 months prior to the lowestOLR (convection) due primarily to radiational effects. This favors the eastward propagation of ENSO modes. The interannualT _* variations are also controlled by the prevailing monsoonal zonal windsu _n, as well as the zonal advection of sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. Over the central Pacific, all of the above mentioned physical processes contribute to the intensification of eastward propagating ENSO modes. Over the Indian Ocean, on the other hand, some of the physical processes become insignificant, or even compensated for by other processes. This results in less pronounced ENSO modes over the Indian Ocean.With 10 FiguresContribution No. 89-6, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii.     

The greening of the McGill Paleoclimate Model. Part I: Improved land surface scheme with vegetation dynamics

The formulation of a new land surface scheme (LSS) with vegetation dynamics for coupling to the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) is presented. This LSS has the following notable improvements over the old version: (1) parameterization of deciduous and evergreen trees by using the models climatology and the output of the dynamic global vegetation model, VECODE (Brovkin et al. in Ecological Modelling 101:251–261 (1997), Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16(4):1139, (2002)); (2) parameterization of tree leaf budburst and leaf drop by using the models climatology; (3) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of the grass leaf area index; (4) parameterization of the seasonal cycle of tree leaf area index by using the time-dependent growth of the leaves; (5) calculation of land surface albedo by using vegetation-related parameters, snow depth and the models climatology. The results show considerable improvement of the models simulation of the present-day climate as compared with that simulated in the original physically-based MPM. In particular, the strong seasonality of terrestrial vegetation and the associated land surface albedo variations are in good agreement with several satellite observations of these quantities. The application of this new version of the MPM (the green MPM) to Holocene millennial-scale climate changes is described in a companion paper, Part II.

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A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.     

Charakteristische Zirkulationstypen in mittleren Breiten der nördlichen Hemisphäre

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden neue Klassifikationsprinzipien für Großwetterlagen entwickelt. Bisher wurde bei Wetterlagenklassifikationen das Druckfeld zugrunde gelegt, wobei quasistationären Druckzentren eine nicht berechtigte Vorrangstellung eingeräumt wurde. In der hier versuchten Klassifikation wird vom Strömungsfeld ausgegangen, das in elementare Formen zerlegt wird. Eine zu diesem Zweck durchgeführte statistische Untersuchung ergab, daß alle im Strömungsfeld auftretenden Zirkulationstypen auf drei Grundformen zurückgeführt werden können. Diese Grundformen sind:Driften, Wellen undWirbel.Die Untersuchung ergab im einzelnen, daß in mittleren Breiten der nördlichen Hemisphäre bei 49% aller untersuchten Fälle Driften, bei 23% Wellen und bei 28% Wirbel auftraten.In der hier durchgeführten Klassifikation wird das Druckfeld durch das Strömungsfeld und der Begriff Großwetterlage durch den umfassenderen Begriff des Zirkulationstyps ersetzt. Damit wird der unberechtigte Vorrang der Druckformen bei der Wetterlagenklassifikation aufgegeben. Die Klassifizierung der Zirkulationstypen ergibt sich schließlich durch Kombination der drei Zirkulationselemente: Drift, Welle und Wirbel.

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Summary New principles of classification for large-scale weather situations are outlined in this paper. Hitherto the pressure-field has been taken as a basis for such classifications by conceding a precedence of an unjustified position to semi-permanent centres of pressure. The new classification starts from the field of large-scale motions, which is dissected in elementary models. A statistical test yielded the possibility to reduce all types of atmospheric circulations in the following three elementary models:drifts, waves andeddies.In detail it was found out, that drifts occur in 49%, waves in 23% and eddies in 28% of all cases investigated.In the new classification the term pressure-field is substituted by field of motion and the expression large-scale weather situation by the more comprehensive conception type of circulation. By that the unjustified priority of pressure-centers in classifying weather situations is abolished. At last the classification of the types of circulation follows from a combination of the three elementary models: drift, wave and eddy.

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résumé La présente étude développe de nouveaux principes de classification des situations météorologiques. Alors que jusqu'ici on s'est fondé sur le champ de pression ce qui conduisait à attribuer aux centres d'action quasi stationnaires un rôle trop important, l'auteur part ici du champ de mouvement décomposé en formes élémentaires. Un examen statistique lui a montré que tous les types de circulation peuvent se ramener à trois formes fondamentales:courants, ondulations ettourbillons.Aux latitudes moyennes de l'hémisphère Nord les courants représentent le 49%, les ondulations le 23% et les tourbillons le 28%.Au champ de pression se substitue donc le champ de courant, et les situations météorologiques se groupent en types de circulation ce qui supprime le rôle prépondérant des formes isobariques. Le classement final des types de circulation résulte de la combinaison des trois types mentionnés:courants, ondulations ettourbillons.

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Mit 15 Textabbildungen     

Linking the northern hemisphere sea-ice reduction trend and the quasi-decadal arctic sea-ice oscillation

The nature of the reduction trend and quasi-decadal oscillation in Northern Hemisphere sea-ice extent is investigated. The trend and oscillation that seem to be two separate phenomena have been found in data. This study examines a hypothesis that the Arctic sea-ice reduction trend in the last three decades amplified the quasi-decadal Arctic sea-ice oscillation (ASIO) due to a positive ice/ocean-albedo feedback, based on data analysis and a conceptual model proposed by Ikeda et al. The theoretical, conceptual model predicts that the quasi-decadal oscillation is amplified by the thinning sea-ice, leading to the ASIO, which is driven by the strong positive feedback between the atmosphere and ice-ocean systems. Such oscillation is predicted to be out-of-phase between the Arctic Basin and the Nordic Seas with a phase difference of 3/4, with the Nordic Seas leading the Arctic. The wavelet analysis of the sea ice data reveals that the quasi-decadal ASIO occurred actively since the 1970s following the trend starting in the 1960s (i.e., as sea-ice became thinner and thinner), as the atmosphere experienced quasi-decadal oscillations during the last century. The wavelet analysis also confirms the prediction of such out-of-phase feature between these two basins, which varied from 0.62 in 1960 to 0.25 in 1995. Furthermore, a coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was used to simulate two scenarios, one without the greenhouse gas warming and the other having realistic atmospheric forcing along with the warming that leads to sea-ice reduction trend. The quasi-decadal ASIO is excited in the latter case compared to the no-warming case. The wavelet analyses of the simulated ice volume were also conducted to derive decadal ASIO and similar phase relationship between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas. An independent data source was used to confirm such decadal oscillation in the upper layer (or freshwater) thickness, which is consistent with the model simulation. A modified feedback loop for the sea-ice trend and ASIO was proposed based on the previous one by Mysak and Venegas and the ice/albedo and cloud/albedo feedabcks, which are responsible for the sea ice reduction trend.     

On statistical dissipation in GCM-climate

This work studies the dissipation that affects the statistical behavior of a climate variable. The hypothesis tested is that the statistical dissipation of large-scale variables in a climate model is significantly influenced by the temporal variations of the models small scale variables. The test is made with the T21 ECHAM4 atmospheric GCM by varying models representation of small-scale variables in two different ways. First, the strength of the horizontal diffusion is modified. Secondly, white noise unrelated to the state of the large-scale variables is added to variables with the smallest scales (wave numbers equal to and smaller than 18). It is found that the statistical dissipations of large-scale variables (e.g., vorticity at wave numbers equal to and larger than six) depend on the intensity of small-scale fluctuations, no matter whether they are induced by modifying the horizontal diffusion or by adding noise. The stronger the small-scale fluctuations, the stronger are the dissipations of the large-scale variables. This result suggests that the simulation of low-frequency climate variations and the prediction of climate change responses depend on the model representation of small-scale climate components.     

Ice-Core Study of the Link between Sea-Salt Aerosol,Sea-Ice Cover and Climate in the Antarctic Peninsula Area

Three ice cores and a set of snow pit samples collected on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1979, 1981 and 1991 have been analyzed for water stable isotope content D or ¹⁸O (isotopic temperature) and major chemical species. A reliable and detailed chronological scale has been established first for the upper 24.5 m of water equivalent (1990–1943) where various data sets can be compared, then extended down to 59.5 m of water equivalent (1847) with the aid of seasonal variations and the sulphate peak reflecting the 1883 Krakatoa volcanic eruption. At James Ross Island, sea-salt aerosol is generally produced by ice-free marine surfaces during the summer months, although some winter sea-salt events have been observed. For the upper part of the core (1990–1943), correlations (positive or negative) were calculated between isotopic temperature, chloride content (a sea-salt indicator), sea-ice extent, regional atmospheric temperature changes and atmospheric circulation. The D and chloride content correlation was then extended back to 1847, making it possible to estimate decadal sea-ice cover fluctuations over the study period. Our findings suggest that ice-core records from James Ross Island reflect the recent warming and sea-ice decrease trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the mid-1940s.     

The Madden–Julian oscillation in ECHAM4 coupled and uncoupled general circulation models

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical variability on timescales of 30–70 days. During the boreal winter/spring, it is manifested as an eastward propagating disturbance, with a strong convective signature over the eastern hemisphere. The space–time structure of the MJO is analyzed using simulations with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model run with observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and coupled to three different ocean models. The coherence of the eastward propagation of MJO convection is sensitive to the ocean model to which ECHAM4 is coupled. For ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, models for which ~100 years of daily data is available, Monte Carlo sampling indicates that their metrics of eastward propagation are different at the 1% significance level. The flux-adjusted coupled simulations, ECHAM4/OPYC and ECHO-G, maintain a more realistic mean-state, and have a more realistic MJO simulation than the nonadjusted scale interaction experiment (SINTEX) coupled runs. The SINTEX model exhibits a cold bias in Indian Ocean and tropical West Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature of ~0.5°C. This cold bias affects the distribution of time-mean convection over the tropical eastern hemisphere. Furthermore, the eastward propagation of MJO convection in this model is not as coherent as in the two models that used flux adjustment or when compared to an integration of ECHAM4 with prescribed observed SST. This result suggests that simulating a realistic basic state is at least as important as air–sea interaction for organizing the MJO. While all of the coupled models simulate the warm (cold) SST anomalies that precede (succeed) the MJO convection, the interaction of the components of the net surface heat flux that lead to these anomalies are different over the Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4/OPYC model in which the atmospheric model is run at a horizontal resolution of T42, has eastward propagating zonal wind anomalies and latent heat flux anomalies. However, the integrations with ECHO-G and SINTEX, which used T30 atmospheres, produce westward propagation of the latent heat flux anomalies, contrary to reanalysis. It is suggested that the differing ability of the models to represent the near-surface westerlies over the Indian Ocean is related to the different horizontal resolutions of the atmospheric model employed.     

Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil