基于消息驱动的气象图形产品加工系统

高质量的气象图形产品是融媒体时代气象信息服务的重要载体。本文综合运用并行计算和大数据等技术,构建消息驱动的气象图形产品加工系统(WeatherStudio),分析了公共气象服务图形产品加工共性问题,探讨了基于消息驱动的产品加工系统的优势,设计了基于消息驱动和定时驱动相融合的气象图形产品加工系统的框架和功能,并以高速公路交通气象灾害风险预警业务为应用实例进行验证,显示出了其较好的应用前景。     

701C测风二次雷达的故障检修一例

1　故障现象电源分系统Ｄ1和天控分系统Ｋ1上的电源接通后 ,不用摇动手轮 ,天线仰角即可缓缓驱动 ,俯仰角度显示值逐渐变小 ,测速机和天线系统连续发出驱动时特有的轰鸣声。2　检查与分析2 .1　摇动俯仰手轮 ,天线照常驱动 ,手轮摇得快 ,电机转得快 ,反之则慢 ,手轮正摇 ,电机正转 ,角度显示增大 ,反之则角度减小。等电机停下来不摇时 ,又恢复到故障现象。2 .2　天控分系统从手控切转到外控 ,不让外控盒驱动天线 ,测速机和天线系统会间断发出轰鸣声 ,俯仰角度间断变化。2 .3　当天线仰角降到下限位时 ,角度不再变化 ,轰鸣声也即消失。从以上…     

用Visual Basic5.0设计辅助天气图显示系统

本文简单介绍了用MicrosoftVisualBasic5．0设计辅助天气图显示系统的过程。该系统主要显示区域气象数据，这些数据是预报员每天要参考的，并且原来是用手工和绘图仪绘制在纸面天气图上的。本系统作为预报辅助工具，能弥补MICAPS系统显示区域气象资料的不便。     

小型风力发电机扇叶朝向控制系统

设计了一种基于单片机的小型风力发电机扇叶朝向控制系统,该系统由风向传感器模块、液晶显示模块、驱动模块和扇叶朝向控制装置组成.系统以MSP430F149单片机作为控制核心,利用风向传感器测量风向信息传输给单片机,单片机根据风向信息控制步进电机调节扇叶朝向来风方向,并且风向信息由LCD显示.该系统可以提高风力发电机的工作效率,具有一定的实用意义.     

基于M16C单片机的温度测量计

研制了一种模块化设计的瑞萨系列单片机实验系统.系统采用集成度高的温度传感器,运用模块化设计完成了基于16位单片机(M3062LFGPGP)的数字式温度计设计,同时在处理温度数据时运用一种新算法,温度精度通过主控模块软件和温度硬件校正处理得到提高.根据传统设计原理,结合瑞萨单片机M3062LFGPGP特点,系统将A/D转换模块和万年历模块集中于主控模块,实现了用软件编程替代A/D模块、万年历硬件模块的新型设计.设计需要模块仅为主控模块、温度模块和显示模块,能够显示当前环境温度以及年、月、日、星期、时、分、秒.此设计可以大大降低系统功耗,减少硬件设计错误,提高系统的稳定性,计时准确,显示清晰,具有较高的应用价值.     

榆林枣树锈病的发病规律及防治

本文主要阐述了山西省降水资源整合数据库建设和基于C/S架构的数据库查询显示系统的实现及解决的一些关键技术问题.数据库建设主要解决了日降水量的存储过程计算,查询显示系统利用VB与Surfer Automation接口技术相结合的解决方案,实现了雨量站点分布图及降水量等值线图绘制,为科学研究、气象预报预测及气象服务提供了直观的图形分析.     

基于B／S（Browser／Server）架构的深圳市交通预报制作系统的设计与实现

2005年7月27日中国气象局和交通部联合签署了《共同开展公路交通气象监测预报预警工作备忘录》。随着该《备忘录》的签署,深圳市气象局积极响应,着手研究交通天气预报技术和方法,并于2006年9月28日正式开展了深圳市长途交通专题天气预报。为了达到交通预报制作图文并茂且节省人力的目的,采用B/S(Browser/Server)架构,对原C/S结构的交通预报制作系统进行了改进和升级,该系统使用PHP语言作为开发语言,并使用MYSQL作为数据库驱动。升级后的系统平台具有简洁、易于操作、安全性高、自动化程度较高和维护和升级简单的特点。     

两种陆面模式对中国区域土壤温度模拟的对比分析

为研究不同陆面模式对中国区域土壤温度的模拟效果,基于中国气象局陆面数据同化系统（CMA Land Data Assimilation System,CLDAS）大气驱动数据分别驱动Noah和Noah-MP陆面模式进行中国区域土壤温度的模拟（简称:CLDAS_Noah和CLDAS_Noah-MP试验）,使用2010—2018年中国气象局2380个土壤温度观测站点10和40 cm观测数据以及美国全球陆面数据同化系统（The Global Land Data Assimilation System,GLDAS）驱动的Noah模式（GLDAS_Noah试验）模拟的土壤温度结果,从空间分布、季节、分区等角度进行了评估,实现了不同驱动数据相同陆面模式和相同驱动数据不同陆面模式的对比分析。结果表明: GLDAS_Noah、CLDAS_Noah和CLDAS_Noah-MP试验均能合理模拟出中国区域土壤温度空间分布,但在量级上有一定差异,主要表现在中国东北、新疆、青藏高原等积雪区。对于相同陆面模式不同驱动数据,均方根误差显示CLDAS_Noah试验在季节与分区上均优于GLDAS_Noah试验,间接表明CLDAS大气驱动数据优于GLDAS大气驱动数据,且大气驱动数据是提高土壤温度模拟精度的重要因素之一;对于相同驱动数据不同陆面模式,总体上CLDAS_Noah-MP试验棋拟效果优于CLDAS_Noah试验,其中CLDAS_Noah试验模拟的10和40 cm深度土壤温度在冬季积雪区误差明显大于CLDAS_Noah-MP试验,可能与Noah-MP模式改进了积雪方案有关,但10和40 cm深度下CLDAS_Noah-MP试验在东北、华北、青藏高原地区对春季土壤温度模拟误差明显大于CLDAS_Noah试验,可能与Noah-MP模式融雪方案有关。总之,本研究对于后续开展土壤温度多模式集成、土壤温度站点资料同化,最终研制中国区域高质量土壤温度数据集具有一定的参考意义。      

一次沙尘暴中尺度低压和沙尘输送的数值模拟

利用ＰＳＵ／ＮＣＡＲ中尺度数值模式（ＭＭ４），以常规观测资料为初始场，成功地模拟了造成“９４．４．５”沙尘暴天气的主要天气系统张掖热低压。并通过给原有的中尺度模式系统加入沙尘输送方程和驱动地面沙尘抬升参数化方案，用改进后的中尺度数值模式系统，成功地模拟了沙尘抬升和输送，与实况比较一致。     

2011/2012年冬季寒潮低频特征及其与500 hPa低频系统的耦合关系

利用NCEP/NCAR的逐日再分析资料和国家气象信息中心的常规观测站温度资料,首先分析了2011/2012年冬季中国低温异常过程中的两次典型寒潮过程和全国828个站平均温度低频振荡的变化特征,然后分析了温度场低频振荡随位相的演变,最后采用SVD（Singular Value Decomposition）方法研究了北半球中高纬度对流层中层低频环流系统配置对温度低频变化的影响。结果表明：1）2011/2012年冬季的寒潮和强降温过程是在全国区域平均温度存在较强的10～30 d低频振荡的背景下发生的,中国的北方和东南部地区温度的低频振荡较强是导致其降温显著的主要原因之一。2）SVD分析的第一模态显示,亚洲-西太平洋中低纬度与中高纬度的南北两支低频波列在东亚地区耦合,使我国中东部和东南部地区处于沿偏东路径南下的强冷空气中;第二模态显示,沿着喀拉海-乌拉尔山东侧-我国西部的低频波列引导源地冷空气沿西北路径南下相继影响我国西北和东北地区。这两个模态驱动了强度大、范围广的低频温度由升高向降低变化的振荡,是导致2011/2012年冬季寒潮发生和极端低温事件出现的环流系统。     

One-dimensional checkerboards and blending heights

We analyze the checkerboard problem of many alternating surfaces with different properties, on scales up to (say) 3,000 m. Power-law representations of the vertical profiles of mean wind speed and eddy diffusivity lead to solutions in terms of Kelvin and trigonometric functions.These solutions are used to determine blending heights (_*), where deviations from the mean of concentration, or of vertical flux density, fall to some small fraction, , of their value at the surface. Values of _*are important for regional and larger-scale meteorological models. In smaller scale micrometeorological studies, they may serve also as the top levels of surface boundary layers.An important result for both theoretical and experimental contexts is that deviations of flux persist with elevation much more strongly than those of concentration, so that, in general, _* should be based on flux rather than concentration. Representative values of _*, for = 0.05, are of order 5 and 30 m for surface pattern wavelengths of 10² and 10³ m, respectively. Values of _* are robust to changes in adopted power-law indices, and are independent of wind speed. Surface roughness has a mild but calculable effect.     

An Empirical Method for Estimating Background Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction Profiles over China

The current paper introduces an empirical method for estimating the vertical distribution of background stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles covering the latitude bands of 50±5°N,40±5°N,30±5°N,and 20±5°N and the longitude range of 75 135°E based on Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II aerosol extinction measurements at wavelengths of 1020 nm,525 nm,452 nm,and 386 nm for the volcanically calm years between 1998 2004.With this method,the vertical distribution of stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficients can be estimated according to latitude and wavelength.Comparisons of the empirically calculated aerosol extinction profiles and the SAGE II aerosol measurements show that the empirically calculated aerosol extinction coefficients are consistent with SAGE II values,with relative differences within 10% from 2 km above the tropopause to 33 km,and within 22% from 33 km to 35 km.The empirically calculated aerosol stratospheric optical depths (vertically integrated aerosol extinction coefficient) at the four wavelengths are also consistent with the corresponding SAGE II optical depth measurements,with differences within 2.2% in the altitude range from 2 km above the tropopause to 35 km.     

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WITH LS-SVM METHOD

The LS-SVM(Least squares support vector machine) method is presented to set up a model to forecast the occurrence of thunderstorms in the Nanjing area by combining NCEP FNL Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0°×1.0° grids and cloud-to-ground lightning data observed with a lightning location system in Jiangsu province during 2007-2008.A dataset with 642 samples,including 195 thunderstorm samples and 447 non-thunderstorm samples,are randomly divided into two groups,one(having 386 samples) for modeling and the rest for independent verification.The predictors are atmospheric instability parameters which can be obtained from the NCEP data and the predictand is the occurrence of thunderstorms observed by the lightning location system.Preliminary applications to the independent samples for a 6-hour forecast of thunderstorm events show that the prediction correction rate of this model is 78.26%,false alarm rate is 21.74%,and forecasting technical score is 0.61,all better than those from either linear regression or artificial neural network.     

中尺度业务预报试验数值模式系统

以引进的美国Penn State/NCAR中尺度模式（MM2和MM4）为基础，按照实时业务预报需要和我国资料特点，在PC/386微机上研制了中尺度业务预报试验数值模式系统。在1989—1990年进行的实时业务预报试验中，该系统运行稳定，预报时效能满足实时业务预报要求，预报结果对12—24小时短期天气预报具有参考价值，适合于省（市）级气象台站等业务单位使用。     

Diurnal and spatial variabilities of monsoonal CG lightning and precipitation and their association with the synoptic weather conditions over South Korea

The spatial and temporal variations in cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and precipitation during the summer monsoon months in Korea have been analyzed in relation to the regional synoptic weather conditions. The lightning data used in this study were collected from a lightning detection network installed by the Korean Meteorological Administration, while the precipitation data were collected from 386 Automatic Weather Stations spread over the entire Korean Peninsula during 2000 to 2001. A distinctive morning peak of precipitation is observed over the midwest region of Korea. Along the east coast, little precipitation and CG flash counts are found. Despite the strong afternoon peaks of convective rainfall due to the high elevation over the southern inland region, the south coast shows nocturnal or early morning peaks, which represents a common oceanic pattern of flash counts. In 2000, the nighttime peak for lightning counts dominates over the southern area, while the afternoon peak was strong in the midland during the summer, mainly due to the northward transportation of moisture to the Korean Peninsula. Conversely, the strong afternoon peak for the southern region was confronted with early morning peaks in the midwestern region during 2001. The eastward transport of moisture has been analyzed and was considered to be dominant in 2001. The study of several warm and cold type fronts in 2000 and 2001 indicate that the warm type fronts in 2000 were associated with very little lightning, while the cold type fronts appeared to be responsible for the occurrence of abundant lightning in 2001, thereby, indicating that the warm and cold type fronts were representative of the local lightning distribution in the respective years.     

Production scenarios and the effect of soil degradation on long-term food security in China

Food security in China underlies the foundation of the livelihood and welfare for over one-fifth of the world's population. Soil degradation has an immense negative impact on the productive capacity of soils. We simulated the effect of soil degradation, which occurs in combination with increases in population size, urbanization rate, cropping intensity and decrease in cropland area, on long-term food security in China using a web-based land evaluation system. Our results predict that food crops may experience a 9% loss in productivity by 2030 if the soil continues to be degraded at the current rate (business-as-usual scenario, BAU). Productivity losses will increase to the unbearable level of 30% by 2050 should the soil be degraded at twice the present rate (double-degradation scenario, 2× SD). China's capacity for producing food from agricultural crops will be either adversely affected by the loss of cropland area (130, 113 and 107 million ha in 2005, 2030 and 2050, respectively) or favorably affected by agricultural intensification (in terms of the multi-cropping index at 120, 133 and 147% in 2005, 2030 and 2050, respectively). The loss of cropland is predicted to cause a 13–18% decrease in China's food production capacity by 2030–2050 relative to its 2005 level of 482 Mt, while agricultural intensification is predicted to cause an 11–23% increase. In total, China will be able to achieve a production level of 424 and 412 Mt by 2030 and 2050, respectively, under BAU, while this production will be only 386 and 339 Mt under 2× SD, respectively. In per capita terms, the relationship between food supply and demand will turn from an 18% surplus in 2005 to 3–5%, 14–18% and 22–32% deficits by 2030–2050 under the zero-degradation (0× SD), BAU and 2× SD scenarios, respectively. Our results show that the present-day production capacity will not sustain the long-term needs of a growing population under the current management level. Technical countermeasures and policy interventions need to be enacted today in order to avoid food insecurity tomorrow.     

新疆雾霾天气自动判识业务系统

新疆气象局依据中国气象局发布的《霾的观测和预报等级》（QX/T113-2010）中霾观测等级标准,开发的“雾霾天气自动判识业务系统”软件,具备自动识别雾、霾、晴等天气现象的功能,能24 h连续在线、实时、自动显示气象监测站PM2.5、气溶胶吸收特性等表征大气洁净状况的监测值,能为气象站观测员提供一个辅助判识雾、霾等天气状况的依据,能为预报员提供一个检验雾、霾等天气状况预报质量的在线实况依据.该软件系统已经在乌鲁木齐国家基本气象站、自治区气象台等单位试运行,且运行情况良好.     

Climate change uncertainty: building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure

Infrastructure for water, urban drainage and flood protection has a typical lifetime of 30–200 years and its continuing performance is very sensitive to climate change. Investment decisions for such systems are frequently based on state-of-the-art impact assessments using a specified climate change scenario in order to identify a singular optimal adaptive strategy. In a non-stationary world, however, it is risky and/or uneconomic to plan for just one climate change scenario as an average or best estimate, as is done with the use of the Predict-Then-Adapt method. We argue that responsible adaptation requires an alternative method that effectively allows for the lack of knowledge about future climate change by adopting a managed/adaptive strategy. The managed/adaptive strategy confers the ability, derived from built-in flexibility, to adjust to future uncertainties as they unfold. This will restrict the effect of erroneous decisions and help avoid maladaptation. Real In Options (RIO) analysis can facilitate the development of an optimal managed/adaptive strategy to climate change. Here, we show the economic benefits of adopting a managed/adaptive strategy and building in flexibility, using RIO analysis applied for the first time to urban drainage infrastructure.     

Bypassing the ‘ratification straitjacket’: reviewing US legal participation in a climate agreement

The issue of US ratification of international environmental treaties is a recurring obstacle for environmental multilateralism, including the climate regime. Despite the perceived importance of the role of the US to the success of any future international climate agreement, there has been little direct coverage in terms of how an effective agreement can specifically address US legal participation. This article explores potential ways of allowing for US legal participation in an effective climate treaty. Possible routes forward include the use of domestic legislation such as section 115 (S115) of the Clean Air Act (CAA) and the use of sole–executive agreements, instead of Senate ratification. Legal participation from the US through sole–executive agreements is possible if the international architecture is designed to allow for their use. Architectural elements such as varying legality and participation across an agreement (variable geometry) could allow for the use of sole–executive agreements. Two broader models for a 2015 agreement with legal participation through sole–executive agreements are constructed based upon these options: a modified pledge and review system and a form of variable geometry composed of number of opt-out, voting-based protocols on specific issues accompanied by bilateral agreements on mitigation commitments with other major emitters through the use of S115 and sole–executive agreements under the Montreal Protocol and Chicago Convention (‘Critical Mass Governance'). While there is no single solution, Critical Mass Governance appears to provide the optimum combination of tools to effectively allow for US legal participation whilst ensuring an effective treaty.

Policy relevance

This article provides some recommendations on how to create an effective, legally binding treaty that allow for US legal participation without Senate approval. Given the recent election of a Republican majority in the US Senate and Congress, increasing willingness of the President to utilize his executive powers, as well as a strong shift in negotiations to appease US interests, the insights of this research are timely and relevant to delegations and other United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) actors. It will also be of use to domestic US actors involved with climate policy by illustrating how to allow for effective and sustainable US multilateral engagement that bypasses domestic political gridlock.