第五代PSU／NCAR中尺度模式系统（MM5）介绍I：地形及地表分类参数处理（TE …

利用ＢＥＲＲＡＩＮ模块的主要功能、结构和原理对模式的安装和操作使用给予了说明。册时,为了加深 读者对该模块的认识,对不同分辨率的地形、地表分类参数的处理进行比较,分析结果表明,高分辨率地形及地表分类资料的选取能更真实地反映出下垫面的实际特征,是今后进行中尺度天气预报和基础之一。     

中国西部陆面过程次网格地形参数化的改进对区域气温和降水模拟的影响研究

地表作为大气模块的下垫面,为大气模块提供边界条件,地形对于模式结果的准确性起到至关重要的作用。现有的陆面过程模式在陆面同一网格内的次网格单元采用相同的大气强迫量,没有考虑次网格地形对网格内大气强迫量的影响,这关系到模式对气象要素和陆气交换量的模拟水平。本文在陆面模式NOAH处理次网格单元的同时,将输入的大气强迫量根据其与地形高度的关系进行修订,提出新的次网格地形的参数化方案,并引入到WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式中进行数值试验,通过3组数值模拟试验,与未改进的方案和细网格方案分析比较,探讨新参数化方案对WRF 模式模拟结果的影响。结果表明:地形越复杂区域,次网格地形的影响越大。本文引入的新陆面次网格地形方案对天山山脉和昆仑山脉以及青藏高原南部的地表气温的模拟有较大改善,模拟的地表气温在大范围区域内都更贴近细网格方案。虽然新陆面次网格地形方案和细网格试验都对温度的模拟结果都有改善,但新陆面次网格地形方案对降水的模拟改善甚微,而细网格试验对降水模拟却有改进,这是由于细网格试验在陆面和大气网格都进行了细化,而新陆面次网格地形方案只考虑了陆面次网格的影响。具体来说,新陆面次网格地形方案对温度的模拟结果改进是通过改变地表向上长波和地表感热实现的。而细网格试验由于同时细化了大气和陆面的空间网格,对降水和温模拟的改进是通过综合改变地表能量平衡实现的。     

基于MODIS地表覆盖(LC)的森林火灾识别方法

通过分析MODIS多光谱地表覆盖产品,证明MODIS本身具有精确识别包括5种森林在内的IGBP 17种地表类型的能力,完全可以满足识别森林火灾的实际需要.在此基础上提出基于MODIS地表覆盖的森林火点识别方法,探讨使用MODIS地表覆盖数据识别森林火灾的数据处理操作过程.应用该森林火点识别方法,MODIS实时广播接收站可以建立一套由MODIS火点侦测模块和MODIS森林火点识别模块构成的完全基于自身数据的森林火灾监测系统.5种森林地表整体平均识别误差为3.5%,可以满足卫星遥感森林火灾监测系统要求.     

一种基于卫星云图定量估计的三维显示方法

对卫星云图进行云地分离、云分类、云高估计等定量计算,并利用这些定量结果,用OpenGL进行三维建模,首先叠加地形,然后以混合的形式实现半透明与非透明云及全透明的地表区别显示,以云顶高估计结果作为云高,高程作为地面高度进行三角网格绘制,最终实现与实际云团基本相一致的三维云图。     

具有Horton及Dunne机制的径流模型在VIC模型中的应用(英)

地表径流主要由蓄满(Dunne)和超渗产流(Horton)机制产生;土壤性质的空间变异性、前期土壤水、地形及降水的空间变异性导致不同的径流机制。在研究区域或模型网格内,蓄满产流及超渗产流可能同时出现,缺乏考虑任何一种机制以及土壤性质的次网格空间变率可能导致地表径流的过高或过低估计,从而影响土壤水的计算。利用Philip入渗公式用于时间压缩逼近(TCA)给出了一种径流参数化方法,该方法可以动态实现模型网格中的Horton及Dunne产流机理,它考虑了土壤空间变异性对Horton和Dunne径流的影响。该径流模型应用到基于水文原理的陆面过程模型VIC,在淮河流域及美国宾西法尼亚州的一个流域进行了测试,结果表明:新的参数化方法对地表径流和土壤水分含量的分配起着重要作用,对于改进径流和土壤水的模拟有重要意义。     

黑河地区高分辨陆地分类的综合分析

本文综合了国内外诸种有关资料,借鉴了国际上较通用的下垫面特征分类标准,也结合黑河地区下垫面的实际情况,对HEIFE试验区及其邻近地区的下垫面特征(包括地表特征、土壤特征及地形高度)进行归纳分类,形成了两种高分辨率(分别约为6km×6km及3km×3km)的下垫面特征的格点化资料,可供该地区地气相互作用研究用。     

丘陵山区地面热平衡场数值模拟的初步探讨

本文根据丘陵山区地形参数(平均坡度、坡向及地形遮蔽角)的数值模拟结果,以及在完成山区地面辐射场计算的基础上,从地表能量平衡方程出发,初步建立起零维地表能量平衡模式,并利用考察资料和附近气象站资料,对大别山南段赵公岭山区3.0×3.5km~2范围内100m网格点进行计算,首次绘制出热平衡各分量在该山区的分布图。结果表明,山区地面热平衡场与地形要素配合较好,显示出地形条件的决定性作用。     

青藏高原对冷空气爆发影响的个例分析(一)

本文通过对1979年4月10—13日在我国的一次寒潮爆发过程进行了有、无地形及修改地形的数值试验和对比分析,发现高原地形对冷空气活动强度及路径等有明显的影响:(1)由于高原地形的存在使冷空气快速沿地形边缘向南推移,冷锋偏南,给我国平原地区带来较大的降温及较多的降雨。(2)这种冷锋的移动快而达到很偏南的纬度主要是低层冷空气沿高原地形边缘绕流所产生的。(3)如果高原大地形不存在,这时冷空气直侵印度,给印度北方带来强降温。     

复杂地形对计算地表太阳短波辐射的影响

首先利用数字高程数据(DEM)、大气辐射传输模式6S以及野外观测资料计算了复杂地形(青藏高原)上地表入射太阳辐射,然后计算不考虑地形产生的地表辐射的计算误差,对误差进行归一化后得到相对辐射误差.结果显示,相对辐射误差的标准差(即相对地表辐射计算误差绝对值的统计平均值) Se随太阳天顶角的增加呈指数增长,随高度标准差的增加几乎呈线性增长,随数字高程数据的分辨率(或卫星资料的分辨率)降低而降低.利用分步拟合方法拟合了Se随太阳天顶角、高度标准差和数字高程分辨率的变化.利用拟合方程可以计算任意地形条件下,不同分辨率的卫星(或数字高程)资料在不同太阳天顶角情况下,不考虑地形复杂性产生的平均地表入射太阳辐射的计算误差,结果表明,使用中分辨率的卫星(如MODIS)资料计算地表太阳净辐射时,需要考虑地形复杂性.     

复杂地形下黑河流域的太阳辐射计算

基于数字高程模型(DEM)数据,在充分考虑了地形因子对太阳直接辐射和散射辐射的影响后,实际计算了起伏地形下黑河流域的太阳辐射。在忽略地表和大气之间的多次反射后,地表太阳总辐射计为三项:按起伏坡面上实际入射角考虑的太阳直接辐射、经过下垫面天空视角因子订正的坡面天空散射辐射和考虑周围地形反射效应的附加辐射。计算结果表明:局地地形起伏对太阳直接辐射、总辐射空间分布的影响非常强烈,使得复杂地形下不同坡向间总辐射和直接辐射平均计算差额十分显著,且太阳天顶角从较小增大至中等大小时,这两种平均计算差额均加大一倍多;在较小和中等大小太阳天顶角下,不同坡向间总辐射平均计算差额,均较相同条件下直接辐射平均计算差额为小,这是因为总辐射还包括了天空漫射和邻近地形反射辐射因子,这两个因子和坡面上太阳入射方位的变化共同影响地表入射太阳辐射;起伏地形主要使得太阳辐射在局地区域内背阴、向阳坡向间发生显著的重新分配。因此,在复杂地形地区进行太阳辐射计算时必须考虑地形的影响。     

四川地形谱特征及中尺度模式水平网格分辨率选取

四川地形复杂多样,暴雨频发,常诱发山洪、泥石流等灾害。在利用中尺度模式对复杂地形区域的暴雨进行研究时,模式水平分辨率的选取缺乏定量依据。为了揭示四川地形的复杂特征和给中尺度模式水平网格分辨率的选取提供定量依据,利用二维离散余弦变换,对四川地形高度场和暴雨分布场进行谱分解,根据暴雨分布特征分区讨论了四川盆地地形特征,同时利用地形谱方差和数值试验定量讨论了数值模式水平分辨率的选取问题,得到主要结论有:(1)二维离散余弦变换能较好地表现出研究区域各向异性的复杂特征;(2)雅安地区和四川盆地西北部的地形谱与降水谱有较好的同相关系,盆地东北部和盆地中部的地形谱与降水谱在波长较大处出现反相关系;(3)针对某个区域的地形特征,可以通过计算模式能分辨的地形方差与总地形方差的比值来确定合适的中尺度模式水平网格分辨率。     

地形起伏对模式地表长波辐射计算的影响

初步探讨了数值模式中次网格区地形起伏(高度、坡度)对长波辐射计算的影响。结果表明,地形高度的次网格变化对辐射计算结果的影响较小,其相对误差一般<2%,但不同分辨率的地形高度场会产生不同的坡度计算误差,低分辨率地形资料所计算的坡度分布相差不大,但坡度的量级存在较大偏差。地形的分辨率越高,实际计算结果的偏差越小。而高分辨率地形资料计算实例表明,地形坡度引起的区域相对辐射误差可达到10%以上。因此,在数值模式中,网格区地表长波辐射计算结果对地形起伏的敏感性应给予足够的重视。     

Large-Eddy Simulations of Atmospheric Flows Over Complex Terrain Using the Immersed-Boundary Method in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Atmospheric flow over complex terrain, particularly recirculation flows, greatly influences wind-turbine siting, forest-fire behaviour, and trace-gas and pollutant dispersion. However, there is a large uncertainty in the simulation of flow over complex topography, which is attributable to the type of turbulence model, the subgrid-scale (SGS) turbulence parametrization, terrain-following coordinates, and numerical errors in finite-difference methods. Here, we upgrade the large-eddy simulation module within the Weather Research and Forecasting model by incorporating the immersed-boundary method into the module to improve simulations of the flow and recirculation over complex terrain. Simulations over the Bolund Hill indicate improved mean absolute speed-up errors with respect to previous studies, as well an improved simulation of the recirculation zone behind the escarpment of the hill. With regard to the SGS parametrization, the Lagrangian-averaged scale-dependent Smagorinsky model performs better than the classic Smagorinsky model in reproducing both velocity and turbulent kinetic energy. A finer grid resolution also improves the strength of the recirculation in flow simulations, with a higher horizontal grid resolution improving simulations just behind the escarpment, and a higher vertical grid resolution improving results on the lee side of the hill. Our modelling approach has broad applications for the simulation of atmospheric flows over complex topography.     

Proof of the monotonicity of grid size and its application in grid-size selection for mesoscale models

Terrain characteristics can be accurately represented in spectrum space. Terrain spectra can quantitatively reflect the effect of topographic dynamic forcing on the atmosphere. In wavelength space, topographic spectral energy decreases with decreasing wavelength, in spite of several departures. This relationship is approximated by an exponential function. A power law relationship between the terrain height spectra and wavelength is fitted by the least-squares method, and the fitting slope is associated with grid-size selection for mesoscale models. The monotonicity of grid size is investigated, and it is strictly proved that grid size increases with increasing fitting exponent, indicating that the universal grid size is determined by the minimum fitting exponent. An example of landslide-prone areas in western Sichuan is given, and the universal grid spacing of 4.1 km is shown to be a requirement to resolve 90% of terrain height variance for mesoscale models, without resorting to the parameterization of subgrid-scale terrain variance. Comparison among results of different simulations shows that the simulations estimate the observed precipitation well when using a resolution of 4.1 km or finer. Although the main flow patterns are similar, finer grids produce more complex patterns that show divergence zones, convergence zones and vortices.Horizontal grid size significantly affects the vertical structure of the convective boundary layer. Stronger vertical wind components are simulated for finer grid resolutions. In particular, noticeable sinking airflows over mountains are captured for those model configurations.     

三维插值方法在2 m温度评估中的应用

模式地形与实况站点地形高度间固有差异严重影响了2 m温度检验评估精度,传统二维插值方法仅满足预报要素与实况观测间经纬度二维空间上的一致性,而忽略了垂直方向的一致性问题,使得检验评估中预报与观测不在同一三维空间上进行检验,从而引起严重的评估误导.利用模式三维预报变量,结合近地面要素预报产品,建立新的近地面要素三维插值方法,以确保预报与观测在三维空间上保持一致性.利用2013年7月整月24 h预报产品与观测的对比分析发现,新插值方法有效地改进了由于地形误差引起的评估误导问题,在不同地形高度条件下均保持了较为一致的误差分布趋势,显示其评估结论不受地形因素影响,具有更好的实际应用价值.进一步关注新插值方法在复杂地形区不同模拟分辨率条件下的评估改进效果,采用GRAPES区域预报模式（GRAPES-MESO4.0）针对2012年7月个例,对青藏高原复杂地形区进行了不同分辨率（45、15、5和2 km）条件下的60 h模拟敏感分析,结果表明新插值方法在高分辨率条件下（2 km）依然显示出明显的改进优势.     

Horizontal Scale of Roughness Variations for Realistic Landscapes

A method is described to infer the horizontal scale of roughness variations from land-use maps, for use in flux aggregation schemes designed to account for sub-grid scale terrain heterogeneity in numerical models of the atmosphere. Based on simple statistical-geometrical considerations, it is shown that this horizontal scale is inversely proportional to edge density, which can be readily derived from high-resolution land-use maps. The method is demonstrated for a highly heterogeneous landscape in northern Belgium, the resulting length scale values approximately ranging between 200 and 1500 m. Finally, the extension towards satellite imagery and coarse land-use data is discussed.     

Experimental results on rainfall estimation in complex terrain with a mobile X-band polarimetric weather radar

In this work the capability of reliable rainfall measurements with small weather radars in complex terrain for flood forecasting purposes is examined. Rain measurements were carried out during winter–spring 2007 with a mobile X-band dual-polarization radar in the northwestern mountainous part of the island of Crete in Greece. In this area a 2D-video disdrometer and a network of raingauges was installed for radar calibration and evaluation of rainfall measurements, respectively. The complex terrain of the experimental site may significantly reduce the performance of rain measurements due to ground clutter and partial or total beam blockage. A beam blockage algorithm using high resolution terrain data was applied in order to find areas with significant terrain effects and estimate correction of the radar measurements. Rain attenuation correction was based on modern sophisticated algorithms using differential phase measurements. The accuracy of rainfall estimation from standard or polarimetric algorithms at plan position indicator (PPI) scans was examined for high-temporal resolution (1 min) rainfall rates and accumulated rainfall values for winter and spring time rain events. For high elevation measurements, which were required in order to avoid terrain effects in large areas of interest, a correction for the vertical-profile-of-reflectivity (VPR) was also applied to the radar data. An average VPR model used in the corresponding correction of reflectivity was constructed based on range–height indicator (RHI) scans. It was concluded that quantitative high resolution X-band radar observations of rainfall in complex terrain is possible after careful application of all the above processing steps.     

大理苍山—洱海局地环流的数值模拟

利用耦合了湖泊模型的WRF_CLM模式模拟了秋季大理苍山—洱海地区的局地环流特征。结果表明:模式对近地面温度、风向、风速的模拟与观测基本一致,模拟结果能较好地再现该地区山谷风和湖陆风相互作用的局地环流特征。在秋季,大理苍山的谷风起止时间为08:00~17:00(北京时,下同),湖风起止时间为09:00~19:00。局地环流受高山地形及洱海湖面影响明显,山谷风形成早于湖陆风1 h,夜间山风、陆风强盛于白天谷风、湖风。白天苍山谷风与洱海湖风的叠加作用会驱动谷风到达2600 m的高度,而傍晚最先形成的苍山山风则会减弱洱海的湖风环流。夜间盆地南部在两侧山风、陆风的共同作用下,形成稳定而持续的气旋式环流。日出以后,对流边界层迅速发展,边界层高度逐渐增高。陆地17:00温度达到最高,边界层高度也达到峰值2000 m,之后逐渐降低。日落后形成稳定边界层,边界层高度在夜间基本保持在100 m。相对于陆地,湖面白天边界层高度低300 m,夜间边界层高度高100 m。     

Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050

Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.