淮河流域暴雨过程的数值模拟和诊断分析

利用中尺度数值模式WRF输出结果，对2003年7月4-6日淮河流域出现的暴雨过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明，WRF模式对这次暴雨过程的雨带位置和走向均有较好的模拟，但暴雨中心位置偏移。这次暴雨过程中尺度天气系统的发生、发展、加强及衰减均在模拟结果中有所显现。     

一次典型东北冷涡暴雨的数值模拟及诊断分析

利用中尺度数值模式WRF,模拟了黑龙江省2004年8月28～29日出现的暴雨过程,并对此次过程进行诊断分析。结果表明。WRF中尺度模式能够较好的模拟冷涡暴雨天气,并从暴雨形成的辐合辐散、水汽、垂直速度等物理量诊断分析此次暴雨过程的演变及物理特征。     

甘肃东南部一次暴雨天气的数值模拟和螺旋度分析

利用NCEP每6h一次的1°×1°格点资料和中尺度模式WRF(V3.1),对2005年7月1～2日发生在甘肃东南部的一次暴雨天气进行了诊断分析和数值模拟,运用模式输出资料对本次天气过程的螺旋度与降水的关系进行了分析讨论。结果表明:高原短波槽的生成,以及来自南海和孟加拉湾的水汽输送是造成此次暴雨天气过程的主要原因;WRF模式对西北暴雨具有一定的模拟能力;螺旋度的空间分布对西北地区东部暴雨的预报具有一定的指示意义;700hPa正值螺旋度的分布形状与高原短波槽和700hPa切变线的形状存在对应关系;而400hPa以下大值正螺旋度的产生可能是西北暴雨发生发展的重要原因之一。     

不同云微物理参数化方案对舟曲"8.8"暴雨过程模拟的影响

利用NCEP 每6h一次的1°×1°格点资料和中尺度模式WRF(V3.2),选用Kessler 方案、Lin 方案和Morrison 双参数方案等3 种云微物理参数化方案,对2010 年舟曲"8.8"特大暴雨天气进行了数值模拟试验,以分析不同参数化方案对降水特征、物理量特征和云微物理特征模拟的影响.结果表明,此次暴雨过...     

浙北地区一次飑线天气的数值模拟分析

利用NCEP1°×1°的再分析资料对2014年3月29日发生在浙北地区的一次飑线天气过程进行诊断分析,并用中尺度数值模式WRF3.2.1对该过程进行数值模拟。结果表明,高空槽、低层冷涡和地面气旋为这次飑线天气的主要影响系统;K指数和θse等值线反映了浙北地区大气层结的不稳定性。此外,WRF模式基本上能模拟出本次飑线过程的中β尺度结构特征。数值模拟结果显示,低层正涡度,高层负涡度的配置有利于强对流的产生和发展;850hPa的流场特征能够很好地分析出飑线系统经历发生、发展到消亡的演变过程。     

沪宁高速公路一次大雾过程的数值模拟及诊断分析

利用新一代中尺度数值预报模式WRF和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对2007年10月26日发生在沪宁高速公路区域的一次大雾天气过程进行了数值模拟,同时采用沪宁高速公路自动气象监测站的实时资料对模拟效果进行了验证,发现WRF模式较成功地模拟了此次大雾过程.结果表明:(1)此次大雾是一次典型的辐射雾,其形成主要原因之一是...     

耦合不同陆面方案的WRF模式对“8.8”舟曲暴雨过程的模拟

利用NCEP每6 h一次的1°×1°格点资料和中尺度模式WRF(V3.2),选用不同的陆面参数化方案,对2010年8月7—8日发生在甘肃舟曲的一次西北地区特大暴雨天气过程进行数值模拟试验。结果表明,此次暴雨过程数值模拟的准确率对陆面参数化方案的选择比较敏感。在WRF模式中,耦合陆面方案比不耦合陆面方案对暴雨的模拟效果更好,耦合陆面方案所模拟的降水分布、地表通量以及地面气象要素都与实况更加接近。耦合不同的陆面方案模拟的降水以及感热通量、潜热通量都存在较大的差别,但是采用不同的陆面方案模拟的地表温度和水汽差别并不大。总体而言,采用PX陆面方案对降水的模拟效果比采用其他方案都合理,与实况最接近。     

多普勒天气雷达资料在暴雨数值模拟中的同化应用

基于中尺度数值模式WRF及其三维变分同化系统WRF-3DVAR对2008年6月广西地区的一次强降雨过程,进行了多普勒天气雷达的多普勒径向速度和反射率因子的三维变分同化对于暴雨过程模拟效果影响研究。结果表明：(1）同化柳州、桂林和永州多普勒天气雷达观测资料后,模式对广西东北部地区特大暴雨的模拟效果明显改进;(2）WRF-3DVAR能够有效地同化多普勒天气雷达径向速度和雷达反射率因子,同化后使得模式初始场包含有更详尽的中尺度特征信息;(3）在高分辨率中尺度数值模式中有效地利用多普勒天气雷达资料,改善了分析场中尺度结构的描述,从而减轻了spin-up现象,能较好的提高中尺度降雨预报。     

一次梅雨锋暴雨过程的中尺度对比模拟分析

使用新一代细网格WRF中尺度数值模式和MM5（V3）模式，对2003年7月4～6日发生在江淮流域的一次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了数值模拟对比分析。结果表明：WRF和MM5都能较好的模拟这次暴雨过程雨带的分布和走向，而WRF能更好的模拟降水中心的位置和雨量；与暴雨过程相联系的低空急流和涡度场等分布特征的模拟，WRF模式亦优于MM5模式。此外，在云贵高原东麓山地，与WRF模式相比，MM5模式在低层模拟出虚假的低压环流，这可能与两模式所采用的垂直坐标差异有关。对WRF的模拟结果分析发现，700hPa湿位涡异常区与暴雨发生区对应很好。     

基于WRF模式的暴雨天气过程的数值模拟及诊断分析

利用新一代中尺度数值预报模式WRF2.2和1°×1°的NCEP气象再分析资料,对2009年9月17日发生在江苏南部地区覆盖沪宁高速公路的一次大暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟。经AWMS（the automatic weather monitoring system）实测数据验证,此次天气过程的模拟效果较为理想。对模式输出的物理量进行诊断分析后发现：长江中下游地区的β中尺度低涡的发展、移动对暴雨过程中降水的加强和维持起着重要的作用;水汽辐合带在500hPa以下非常显著,在暴雨区形成了深厚的高湿环境,为暴雨的产生、加强和维系提供了重要的水汽条件;暴雨区内前期及降水过程中都存在较为强烈的垂直运动,且涡度场与散度场在垂直结构配置上一致,使得大气层结不稳定能量释放,形成了旺盛的对流天气;对流层中上层大气为中性层结,低层为位势不稳定,所以整层大气有对流发展,有利于暴雨的形成。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

Information for Authors

正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

INFORMATION FOR AUTHORS

正Aims Scope Advances in Atmospheric Sciences(AAS)is an international journal on the dynamics,physics,and chemistry of the atmosphere and ocean with papers across the full range of the atmospheric sciences,co-published bimonthly by Science Press and Springer.The journal includes Articles,Note and Correspondence,and Letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.