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1.
Scalar and vector intensity measures are developed for the efficient estimation of limit‐state capacities through incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) by exploiting the elastic spectral shape of individual records. IDA is a powerful analysis method that involves subjecting a structural model to several ground motion records, each scaled to multiple levels of intensity (measured by the intensity measure or IM), thus producing curves of structural response parameterized by the IM on top of which limit‐states can be defined and corresponding capacities can be calculated. When traditional IMs are used, such as the peak ground acceleration or the first‐mode spectral acceleration, the IM‐values of the capacities can display large record‐to‐record variability, forcing the use of many records to achieve reliable results. By using single optimal spectral values as well as vectors and scalar combinations of them on three multistorey buildings significant dispersion reductions are realized. Furthermore, IDA is extended to vector IMs, resulting in intricate fractile IDA surfaces. The results reveal the most influential spectral regions/periods for each limit‐state and building, illustrating the evolution of such periods as the seismic intensity and the structural response increase towards global collapse. The ordinates of the elastic spectrum and the spectral shape of each individual record are found to significantly influence the seismic performance and they are shown to provide promising candidates for highly efficient IMs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
In seismic risk assessment of structures, fragility functions are the probabilistic characterization of vulnerability at the component and/or structural level, expressing the probability of failure as a function of a ground motion intensity measure (IM). Fragility curves, in general, are structure- and site-specific, thus a comparison of fragility curves, then of vulnerability, is not straightforward across multiple structures. Also, it could be the case that hazard at a site of interest is not available for the IM originally considered in the fragility assessment. These situations require to convert fragility curves from an original IM to a target one. The present study addresses a hazard-consistent probabilistic framework for converting spectral acceleration-based IMs from an original IM to a target IM at a given site. In particular, three conversion cases, under different assumptions on the explanatory power of the involved IMs with respect to structural failure, are discussed: (a) a vector-valued IM consisting of the original and target IMs, magnitude, and source-to-site distance; (b) a vector-valued IM consisting of the original and target IMs; and (c) the original (scalar) IM only, assuming that structural response, given the IM, is statistically independent of the other ground motion variables. In this framework, the original fragility functions are characterized using the state-of-the-art methods in performance-based earthquake engineering, then the fragility curves as a function of the target IM are evaluated through applications of the probability calculus rules, ensuring consistency with the seismic hazard at the site of interest. The conversion strategy is illustrated through the applications to three-, six-, and nine-story Italian code-conforming reinforced concrete buildings designed for a high-hazard site in Italy. The study shows that, in most of the cases, the converted fragility curves have agreement with the reference curves directly developed in terms of the target IM. Cases in which least agreement was found are likely due to the models used to obtain the terms required by the conversion equations.  相似文献   

3.
The use of a seismic intensity measure (IM) is paramount in decoupling seismic hazard and structural response estimation when assessing the performance of structures. For this to be valid, the IM needs to be sufficient;that is, the engineering demand parameter (EDP) response should be independent of other ground motion characteristics when conditioned on the IM. Whenever non‐trivial dependence is found, such as in the case of the IM being the first‐mode spectral acceleration, ground motion selection must be employed to generate sets of ground motion records that are consistent vis‐à‐vis the hazard conditioned on the IM. Conditional spectrum record selection is such a method for choosing records that are consistent with the site‐dependent spectral shape conditioned on the first‐mode spectral acceleration. Based on a single structural period, however the result may be suboptimal, or insufficient, for EDPs influenced by different period values, for example, peak interstory drifts or peak floor accelerations at different floors, potentially requiring different record suites for each. Recently, the log‐average spectral acceleration over a period range, AvgSA, has emerged as an improved scalar IM for building response estimation whose hazard can be evaluated using existing ground motion prediction equations. Herein, we present a recasting of conditional spectrum record selection that is based on AvgSA over a period range as the conditioning IM. This procedure ensures increased efficiency and sufficiency in simultaneously estimating multiple EDPs by means of a single IM. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
A fundamental issue in the framework of seismic probabilistic risk analysis is the choice of ground motion intensity measures (IMs). Based on the floor response spectrum method, the present contribution focuses on the ability of IMs to predict non‐structural components (NSCs) horizontal acceleration demand. A large panel of IMs is examined and a new IM, namely equipment relative average spectral acceleration (E‐ASAR), is proposed for the purpose of NSCs acceleration demand prediction. The IMs efficiency and sufficiency comparisons are based on (i) the use of a large dataset of recorded earthquake ground motions; (ii) numerical analyses performed on three‐dimensional numerical models, representing actual structural wall and frame buildings; and (iii) systematic statistical analysis of the results. From the comparative study, the herein introduced E‐ASAR shows high efficiency with respect to the estimation of maximum floor response spectra ordinates. Such efficiency is particularly remarkable in the case of structural wall buildings. Besides, the sufficiency and the simple formulation allowing the use of existing ground motion prediction models make the E‐ASAR a promising IMs for seismic probabilistic risk assessment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
This paper develops a procedure to select unscaled ground motions for estimating seismic demand hazard curves (SDHCs) in performance‐based earthquake engineering. Currently, SDHCs are estimated from a probabilistic seismic demand analysis, where several ensembles of ground motions are selected and scaled to a user‐specified scalar conditioning intensity measure (IM). In contrast, the procedure developed herein provides a way to select a single ensemble of unscaled ground motions for estimating the SDHC. In the context of unscaled motions, the proposed procedure requires three inputs: (i) database of unscaled ground motions, (ii) I M , the vector of IMs for selecting ground motions, and (iii) sample size, n; in the context of scaled motions, two additional inputs are needed: (i) a maximum acceptable scale factor, SFmax, and (ii) a target fraction of scaled ground motions, γ. Using a recently developed approach for evaluating ground motion selection and modification procedures, the proposed procedure is evaluated for a variety of inputs and is demonstrated to provide accurate estimates of the SDHC when the vector of IMs chosen to select ground motions is sufficient for the response quantity of interest. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The efficacy of various ground motion intensity measures (IMs) in the prediction of spatially distributed seismic demands (engineering demand parameters, (EDPs)) within a structure is investigated. This has direct implications to building‐specific seismic loss estimation, where the seismic demand on different components is dependent on the location of the component in the structure. Several common IMs are investigated in terms of their ability to predict the spatially distributed demands in a 10‐storey office building, which is measured in terms of maximum interstorey drift ratios and maximum floor accelerations. It is found that the ability of an IM to efficiently predict a specific EDP depends on the similarity between the frequency range of the ground motion that controls the IM and that of the EDP. An IMs predictability has a direct effect on the median response demands for ground motions scaled to a specified probability of exceedance from a ground motion hazard curve. All of the IMs investigated were found to be insufficient with respect to at least one of magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, or epsilon when predicting all peak interstorey drifts and peak floor accelerations in a 10‐storey reinforced concrete frame structure. Careful ground motion selection and/or seismic demand modification is therefore required to predict such a spatially distributed demands without significant bias. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
This paper examines four methods by which ground motions can be selected for dynamic seismic response analyses of engineered systems when the underlying seismic hazard is quantified via ground motion simulation rather than empirical ground motion prediction equations. Even with simulation‐based seismic hazard, a ground motion selection process is still required in order to extract a small number of time series from the much larger set developed as part of the hazard calculation. Four specific methods are presented for ground motion selection from simulation‐based seismic hazard analyses, and pros and cons of each are discussed via a simple and reproducible illustrative example. One of the four methods (method 1 ‘direct analysis’) provides a ‘benchmark’ result (i.e., using all simulated ground motions), enabling the consistency of the other three more efficient selection methods to be addressed. Method 2 (‘stratified sampling’) is a relatively simple way to achieve a significant reduction in the number of ground motions required through selecting subsets of ground motions binned based on an intensity measure, IM. Method 3 (‘simple multiple stripes’) has the benefit of being consistent with conventional seismic assessment practice using as‐recorded ground motions, but both methods 2 and 3 are strongly dependent on the efficiency of the conditioning IM to predict the seismic responses of interest. Method 4 (‘generalized conditional intensity measure‐based selection’) is consistent with ‘advanced’ selection methods used for as‐recorded ground motions and selects subsets of ground motions based on multiple IMs, thus overcoming this limitation in methods 2 and 3. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
The selection of a scalar Intensity Measure (IM) for performing analytical vulnerability (loss) assessment across a building class is addressed. We investigate the ability of several IM choices to downgrade the effect of seismological parameters (sufficiency) as well as reduce the record‐to‐record variability (efficiency) for both highrise and lowrise sets of ‘index’ buildings. These characteristics are explored in unprecedented detail, employing comparisons and statistical significance testing at given levels of local engineering demand parameters (story drift ratios and peak floor accelerations) that relate to losses, instead of global variables such as the maximum interstory drift. Thus, a detailed limit‐state‐specific view is offered for the suitability of different scalar IMs for loss assessment. As expected, typical single‐period spectral values are found to introduce unwanted bias at high levels of scaling, both for a single as well as a class of buildings. On the other hand, the geometric mean of the spectral acceleration values estimated at several periods between the class‐average second‐mode and an elongated class‐average first‐mode period offers a practical choice that significantly reduces the spectral‐shape bias without requiring the development of new ground motion prediction equations. Given that record selection remains a site‐ and building‐specific process, such an improved IM can help achieve reliable estimates for building portfolios, as well as single structures, at no additional cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Probabilistic seismic demand models are a common and often essential step in generating analytical fragility curves for highway bridges. With these probabilistic models being traditionally conditioned on a single seismic intensity measure (IM), the degree of uncertainty in the models is dependent on the IM used. Selection of an optimal IM for conditioning these demand models is not a trivial matter and has been the focus of numerous studies. Unlike previous studies that consider a single structure for IM selection, this study evaluates optimal IMs for use when generating probabilistic seismic demand models for bridge portfolios such as would be found in HAZUS‐MH. Selection criteria such as efficiency, practicality, sufficiency, and hazard computability are considered in the selection process. A case study is performed considering the multi‐span simply supported steel girder bridge class. Probabilistic seismic demand models are generated considering variability in the geometric configurations and material properties, using two suites of ground motions—one synthetic and one recorded motion suite. Results show that of the 10 IMs considered, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at the fundamental period are the most optimal for the synthetic motions, and that cumulative absolute velocity is also a close contender when using recorded motions. However, when hazard computability is considered, PGA is selected as the IM of choice. Previous studies have shown that spectrally based quantities perform better than PGA for a given structure, but the findings of this study indicate that when a portfolio of bridges is considered, PGA should be used. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
This paper characterizes the ability of natural ground motions to induce rocking demands on rigid structures. In particular, focusing on rocking blocks of different size and slenderness subjected to a large number of historic earthquake records, the study unveils the predominant importance of the strong‐motion duration to rocking amplification (ie, peak rocking response without overturning). It proposes original dimensionless intensity measures (IMs), which capture the total duration (or total impulse accordingly) of the time intervals during which the ground motion is capable of triggering rocking motion. The results show that the proposed duration‐based IMs outperform all other examined (intensity, frequency, duration, and/or energy‐based) scalar IMs in terms of both “efficiency” and “sufficiency.” Further, the pertinent probabilistic seismic demand models offer a prediction of the peak rocking demand, which is adequately “universal” and of satisfactory accuracy. Lastly, the analysis shows that an IM that “efficiently” captures rocking amplification is not necessarily an “efficient” IM for predicting rocking overturning, which is dominated by the velocity characteristics (eg, peak velocity) of the ground motion.  相似文献   

11.
Ground-motion models (GMMs) are widely used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to estimate the probability distributions of earthquake-induced ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) at a site, given an earthquake of a certain magnitude occurring at a nearby location. Accounting for spatial and cross-IM correlations in earthquake-induced ground motions has important implications on probabilistic seismic hazard and loss estimates. This study first develops a new Italian GMM with spatial correlation for 31 amplitude-related IMs, including peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5%-damped elastic pseudo-spectral accelerations (PSAs) at 29 periods ranging from 0.01 to 4 seconds. The model estimation is performed through a recently developed one-stage nonlinear regression algorithm proposed by the authors, known as the Scoring estimation approach. In fact, current state-of-practice approaches estimate spatial correlation separately from the GMM estimation, resulting in inconsistent and statistically inefficient estimators of interevent and intraevent variances and parameters in the spatial correlation model. We test whether this affects the subsequent cross-IM correlation analysis. To this aim, based on the newly developed GMM, the empirical correlation coefficients from interevent and intraevent residuals are investigated. Finally, a set of analytical correlation models between the selected IMs are proposed. This is of special interest as several correlation models between different IMs have been calibrated and validated based on advanced GMMs and global datasets, lacking earthquakes in extensional regions; however, modeling the correlation between different IM types has not been adequately addressed by current, state-of-the-art GMMs and recent ground-motion records for Italy.  相似文献   

12.
The ‘strength’ of an earthquake ground motion is often quantified by an Intensity Measure (IM), such as peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration at a given period. This IM is used to predict the response of a structure. In this paper an intensity measure consisting of two parameters, spectral acceleration and epsilon, is considered. The IM is termed a vector‐valued IM, as opposed to the single parameter, or scalar, IMs that are traditionally used. Epsilon (defined as a measure of the difference between the spectral acceleration of a record and the mean of a ground motion prediction equation at the given period) is found to have significant ability to predict structural response. It is shown that epsilon is an indicator of spectral shape, explaining why it is related to structural response. By incorporating this vector‐valued IM with a vector‐valued ground motion hazard, we can predict the mean annual frequency of exceeding a given value of maximum interstory drift ratio, or other such response measure. It is shown that neglecting the effect of epsilon when computing this drift hazard curve leads to conservative estimates of the response of the structure. These observations should perhaps affect record selection in the future. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Seismic intensity measure (IM) selection is associated with consideration of multiple criteria, and there are uncertainties within the selection process. In this paper, a novel multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach by incorporating stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) with technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is proposed to solve the stochastic decision making problem of IM selection. TOPSIS provides an alternative rank function, and the SMAA is used to address the uncertainties within the IM selection. The performance criteria (e.g., efficiency, proficiency, practicality, sufficiency, and correlation) are evaluated for the investigated structural components, and the decision matrix is formulated based on the criteria of each IM alternative. Furthermore, the importance of the component to system reliability is quantified in a probabilistic manner using nonlinear time history analysis and serves as the weighting factors in MCDM stage. The holistic acceptability indices indicating the overall acceptability levels of IM alternatives are computed by the proposed approach. Additionally, the effects of different IMs (e.g., average spectral acceleration, peak ground velocity, and spectral acceleration) on probabilistic seismic loss and resilience are investigated to further support the IM selection. The proposed approach is illustrated on a highway bridge, and the results are presented.  相似文献   

14.
This paper presents a method for seismic vulnerability analysis of bridge structures based on vector-valued intensity measure(v IM), which predicts the limit-state capacities efficiently with multi-intensity measures of seismic event. Accounting for the uncertainties of the bridge model, ten single-bent overpass bridge structures are taken as samples statistically using Latin hypercube sampling approach. 200 earthquake records are chosen randomly for the uncertainties of ground motions according to the site condition of the bridges. The uncertainties of structural capacity and seismic demand are evaluated with the ratios of demand to capacity in different damage state. By comparing the relative importance of different intensity measures, Sa(T1) and Sa(T2) are chosen as v IM. Then, the vector-valued fragility functions of different bridge components are developed. Finally, the system-level vulnerability of the bridge based on v IM is studied with DunnettSobel class correlation matrix which can consider the correlation effects of different bridge components. The study indicates that an increment IMs from a scalar IM to v IM results in a significant reduction in the dispersion of fragility functions and in the uncertainties in evaluating earthquake risk. The feasibility and validity of the proposed vulnerability analysis method is validated and the bridge is more vulnerable than any components.  相似文献   

15.
A widespread approach for the prediction of the structural response as function of the ground motion intensity is based on the Cloud Analysis: once a set of points representing the engineering demand parameter (EDP) values is obtained as function of the selected seismic intensity measure (IM) for a collection of unscaled earthquake records, a regression analysis is performed by assuming a specific functional form to correlate these variables. Within this framework, many studies have been devoted so far to evaluate the effectiveness of several IMs in estimating the EDPs through intrinsically linear functional forms, but it is still unknown to what extent the use of the linear regression analysis affects the quality of the final results. This paper is intended to provide an answer to such question by means of the calibration of suitable nonlinear combinations of scalar IMs, whose statistical performances are compared with those obtained by using the functional form usually adopted for linear regression-based calibrations. Specifically, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression technique is adopted to calibrate nonlinear regression models for the prediction of maximum inter-story drift ratio and maximum floor acceleration. The comparative analysis is performed for fixed-base and base-isolated reinforced concrete buildings subjected to ordinary or pulse-like ground motion taking into account accuracy, complexity, efficiency and sufficiency. Final results demonstrate that the linear regression analysis is suitable for fixed-base reinforced concrete buildings, but nonlinear regression models provide better estimates. On the other hand, the linear regression analysis can introduce a significant bias in the seismic response prediction of base-isolated buildings, and nonlinear regression models are deemed more appropriate.  相似文献   

16.
A probabilistic representation of the entire ground‐motion time history can be constructed based on a stochastic model that depends on seismic source parameters. An advanced stochastic simulation scheme known as Subset Simulation can then be used to efficiently compute the small failure probabilities corresponding to structural limit states. Alternatively, the uncertainty in the ground motion can be represented by adopting a parameter (or a vector of parameters) known as the intensity measure (IM) that captures the dominant features of the ground shaking. Structural performance assessment based on this representation can be broken down into two parts, namely, the structure‐specific part requiring performance assessment for a given value of the IM, and the site‐specific part requiring estimation of the likelihood that ground shaking with a given value of the IM takes place. The effect of these two alternative representations of ground‐motion uncertainty on probabilistic structural response is investigated for two hazard cases. In the first case, these two approaches are compared for a scenario earthquake event with a given magnitude and distance. In the second case, they are compared using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to take into account the potential of the surrounding faults to produce events with a range of possible magnitudes and distances. The two approaches are compared on the basis of the probabilistic response of an existing reinforced‐concrete frame structure, which is known to have suffered shear failure in its columns during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in Los Angeles, California. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
A spectral-velocity-based combination-type ground motion intensity measure (IM), which is inspired by the superior sensitivity of spectral velocity to structural response compared with other two spectral quantities, is proposed for super high-rise building structures with the consideration of the characteristics of ground motions and structures themselves. Two super high-rise buildings with typical frame/core-tube/outrigger lateral resisting system and a wide range of structural height (H = 258 m~660 m) are deliberately selected to identify the correlation between the maximum inter-story drift ratio and nineteen IMs developed in recent decade together with the proposed IM, with sixty chosen far-field and near-field pulse-like ground motions. With the suggested optimal number of lower vibration modes and corresponding combination factors, the efficiency, sufficiency and the scaling robustness of the proposed IM is further demonstrated. In addition, the relative sufficiency measures of other IMs with respect to the proposed IM are investigated. The results from the study indicate that, the proposed IM is believed, from the standpoint of efficiency, sufficiency, relative sufficiency measure and scaling robustness, to be a more specialized and desirable tool for super high-rise buildings, either for far-field or near-field ground motions.  相似文献   

18.
The influence of vertical ground motions on the seismic response of highway bridges is not very well understood. Recent studies suggest that vertical ground motions can substantially increase force and moment demands on bridge columns and girders and cannot be overlooked in seismic design of bridge structures. For an evaluation of vertical ground motion effects on the response of single‐bent two‐span highway bridges, a systematic study combining the critical engineering demand parameters (EDPs) and ground motion intensity measures (IMs) is required. Results of a parametric study examining a range of highway bridge configurations subjected to selected sets of horizontal and vertical ground motions are used to determine the structural parameters that are significantly amplified by the vertical excitations. The amplification in these parameters is modeled using simple equations that are functions of horizontal and vertical spectral accelerations at the corresponding horizontal and vertical fundamental periods of the bridge. This paper describes the derivation of seismic demand models developed for typical highway overcrossings by incorporating critical EDPs and combined effects of horizontal and vertical ground motion IMs depending on the type of the parameter and the period of the structure. These models may be used individually as risk‐based design tools to determine the probability of exceeding the critical levels of EDP for pre‐determined levels of ground shaking or may be included explicitly in probabilistic seismic risk assessments. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Earthquake‐induced slope displacement is an important parameter for safety evaluation and earthquake design of slope systems. Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis usually focuses on evaluating slope displacement at a particular location, and it is not suitable for spatially distributed slopes over a large region. This study proposes a computationally efficient framework for fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slope systems using spatially correlated vector intensity measures (IMs). First, a spatial cross‐correlation model for three key ground motion IMs, that is, peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity, and peak ground velocity, is developed using 2686 ground motion recordings from 11 recent earthquakes. To reduce the computational cost, Monte Carlo simulation and data reduction techniques are utilized to generate spatially correlated random fields for the vector IMs. The slope displacement hazards over the region are further quantified using empirical predictive equations. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to highlight the importance of the spatial correlation and the advantage of using spatially correlated vector IMs in seismic hazard analysis of spatially distributed slopes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Vector-valued fragility functions for seismic risk evaluation   总被引:4,自引:4,他引:0  
This article presents a method for the development of vector-valued fragility functions, which are a function of more than one intensity measure (IM, also known as ground-motion parameters) for use within seismic risk evaluation of buildings. As an example, a simple unreinforced masonry structure is modelled using state-of-the-art software and hundreds of nonlinear time-history analyses are conducted to compute the response of this structure to earthquake loading. Dozens of different IMs (e.g. peak ground acceleration and velocity, response spectral accelerations at various periods, Arias intensity and various duration and number of cycle measures) are considered to characterize the earthquake shaking. It is demonstrated through various statistical techniques (including Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis) that the use of more than one IM leads to a better prediction of the damage state of the building than just a single IM, which is the current practice. In addition, it is shown that the assumption of the lognormal distribution for the derivation of fragility functions leads to more robust functions than logistic, log-logistic or kernel regression. Finally, actual fragility surfaces using two pairs of IMs (one pair are uncorrelated while the other are correlated) are derived and compared to scalar-based fragility curves using only a single IM and a significant reduction in the uncertainty of the predicted damage level is observed. This type of fragility surface would be a key component of future risk evaluations that take account of recent developments in seismic hazard assessment, such as vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.  相似文献   

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