Temperature variability in central Mexico and its possible association to solar activity

Minimum extreme temperature variability from five meteorological stations in the central part of Mexico covering a period from 1920 to 1990 is examined. We found a correlation coefficient (r=0.65) between these temperature records and geomagnetic activity. Furthermore, by performing spectral analysis peaks were obtained with similar periodicities to those found in the sunspot number, the magnetic solar cycle, cosmic ray fluxes and geomagnetic activity; all of these phenomena are modulated by solar activity. Signals with periodicities comparable to those observed in El Niño and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation were also identified. We conclude that the solar signal is probably present in the minimum extreme temperature record of the central part of Mexico.     

Seasonal oscillations in mesospheric temperatures at low-latitudes

Using 3 years of high-quality temperature measurements (2002–2004) recorded from Maui, HI (20.8°N), we have investigated the characteristics of mesospheric seasonal oscillations at low-latitudes. Measurements of the near-infrared OH (6,2) and O₂ (0,1) nightglow emission layers (centered at 87 and 94 km) independently reveal a distinct semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and annual oscillation (AO) with amplitudes of 3.8 and 2.0 K, respectively. An observed asymmetry in the seasonal variation of the nocturnal mean, previously reported by Taylor et al. [2005. Characterization of the semi-annual-oscillation in mesospheric temperatures at low-latitudes. Advances in Space Research 35, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2005.05.111] from this site is shown to be due to a superposed AO of amplitude 50% of the SAO signature. Detailed investigations of the local-time variation of the SAO amplitude and phase combined with TIME-GCM simulations of the seasonal variation of the diurnal tide strongly suggest a large local-time dependence of the amplitude (but not phase) of the observed SAO. These data indicate that the true mean temperature SAO amplitude could be as high as 7 K at this latitude.     

Mismatch between variations of solar indices, stratospheric ozone and UV-B observed at ground

In solar cycles 22–23, all solar indices showed maxima near 1990 and 2000 and minima in 1996. The maximum to minimum variation was only 1–2% in the UV range 240–350 nm. Dobson ozone intensities did not show any clear relationship with solar cycle and ozone variations were less than 10%. The UV-B (295–325 nm) observed at ground by Brewer spectrophotometers at some locations had variations of 50–100% for 295–300 nm, and 20–50% for 305–325 nm. The maxima were in different years at different locations (even with separations of only 300 km), did not match with the solar cycle, and were far too large to be explained on the basis of ozone changes (1% decrease of ozone is expected to cause 2% increase of UV-B). Thus, if the data are not bad, the UV-B changes do not match with solar activity or ozone changes and must be mostly due to other local effects (clouds, etc.?). When data are averaged over wide geographical regions, UV-B variation ranges are smaller (10–20%, probably because localised, highly varying cloud effects get filtered out), and are roughly as expected from ozone variations.     

Neogene volcanic activity of western Syria and its relationship with Arabian plate kinematics

The Cenozoic (mostly Neogene) volcanic activity in Syria is part of the extensive magmatism that took place in the Mashrek Region, Middle East, from upper Eocene to Holocene (40–0.0005 Ma). Samples in western Syria are mostly high TiO₂ (TiO₂ 1.8–3.7 wt.%) alkaline mafic rocks (basanites, hawaiites and alkali basalts) plus rare transitional/tholeiitic basalts and basaltic andesites) with within-plate-like trace element signature.On the basis of incompatible trace element content, the volcanic activity in Syria has been divided into two stages: the first lasting from 25 to 5 Ma and the second from 5 to recent times. Indeed, the Syrian lavas show incompatible trace element content increasing with decreasing age from 25 to 5 Ma, followed by an abrupt decrease to low values roughly at the Miocene–Pliocene boundary. This temporal shift in composition is related to major tectonic re-organization occurred during upper Miocene.The proposed petrogenetic model invokes three steps: (a) passive upwelling of the shallow asthenosphere during the development of the Dead Sea transform fault system. Different degrees of partial melting were followed by variable extents of fractional crystallization and limited upper crustal contamination; (b) the Miocene–Pliocene boundary tectonic change enhanced passive decompression of the same sources and a consequent increase in degree of partial melting resulting in low incompatible trace element content of the relatively high-volume liquids; (c) after this phase, the incompatible trace element content in the basaltic magmas increased as consequence of fractional crystallization processes.Major and trace element content similarities with the rest of the circum-Mediterranean igneous rocks are consistent with a common relatively shallow origin for the Cenozoic anorogenic magmatism of the entire circum-Mediterranean area (the so-called Common Magmatic Reservoir). Because much of the igneous activity in the studied area is concentrated near the Dead Sea fault, the origin of Cenozoic magmatism in Syria (and in the rest of the circum-Mediterranean area) reflects a strong lithospheric control on the loci of partial melting. Mantle plumes from lower mantle and/or north-westward channelling of the Afar mantle plume is not needed to explain volcanic activity in Syria and the Mashrek area.     

From regional seismic hazard to “scenario earthquakes” for seismic microzoning: A new methodological tool for the Celano Project

We present the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and disaggregation analysis aimed to understand the dominant magnitudes and source-to-site distances of earthquakes that control the hazard at the Celano site in the Abruzzo region of central Italy. Firstly, we calculated a peak ground acceleration map for the central Apennines area, by using a model of seismogenic sources defined on geological-structural basis. The source model definition and the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation at the regional scale (central Apennines) were obtained using three different seismicity models (Gutenberg–Richter model; characteristic earthquake model; hybrid model), consistent with the available seismological information. Moreover, a simplified time-dependent hypothesis has been introduced, computing the conditional probability of earthquakes occurrence by Brownian passage time distributions.Subsequently, we carried out the disaggregation analysis, with a modified version of the SEISRISK III code, in order to separate the contribution of each source to the total hazard.The results show the percentage contribution to the Celano hazard of the various seismogenic sources, for different expected peak ground acceleration classes. The analysis was differentiated for close (distance from Celano <20 km) and distant (distance from Celano >20 km) seismogenic sources. We propose three different “scenario earthquakes”, useful for the site condition studies and for the seismic microzoning study: (1) large (M=6.6) local (Celano-epicentre distance 16 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 590 years; (2) moderate (M=5.5) local (Celano-epicentre distance 7.5 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 500 years; and (3) large (M=6.6) distant (Celano-epicentre distance 24 km) earthquake, with mean recurrence time of 980 years.The probabilistic and time-dependent approach to the definition of the “scenario earthquakes” changes clearly the results in comparison to traditional deterministic analysis, with effects in terms of engineering design and seismic risk reduction.     

Collision of the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta with the Burma Arc: Implications for earthquake hazard

We take a fresh look at the topography, structure and seismicity of the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta (GBD)–Burma Arc collision zone in order to reevaluate the nature of the accretionary prism and its seismic potential. The GBD, the world's largest delta, has been built from sediments eroded from the Himalayan collision. These sediments prograded the continental margin of the Indian subcontinent by  400 km, forming a huge sediment pile that is now entering the Burma Arc subduction zone. Subduction of oceanic lithosphere with > 20 km sediment thickness is fueling the growth of an active accretionary prism exposed on land. The prism starts at an apex south of the GBD shelf edge at  18°N and widens northwards to form a broad triangle that may be up to 300 km wide at its northern limit. The front of the prism is blind, buried by the GBD sediments. Thus, the deformation front extends 100 km west of the surface fold belt beneath the Comilla Tract, which is uplifted by 3–4 m relative to the delta. This accretionary prism has the lowest surface slope of any active subduction zone. The gradient of the prism is only  0.1°, rising to  0.5° in the forearc region to the east. This low slope is consistent with the high level of overpressure found in the subsurface, and indicates a very weak detachment. Since its onset, the collision of the GBD and Burma Arc has expanded westward at  2 cm/yr, and propagated southwards at  5 cm/yr. Seismic hazard in the GBD is largely unknown. Intermediate-size earthquakes are associated with surface ruptures and fold growth in the external part of the prism. However, the possibility of large subduction ruptures has not been accounted for, and may be higher than generally believed. Although sediment-clogged systems are thought to not be able to sustain the stresses and strain-weakening behavior required for great earthquakes, some of the largest known earthquakes have occurred in heavily-sedimented subduction zones. A large earthquake in 1762 ruptured  250 km of the southern part of the GBD, suggesting large earthquakes are possible there. A large, but poorly documented earthquake in 1548 damaged population centers at the northern and southern ends of the onshore prism, and is the only known candidate for a rupture of the plate boundary along the subaerial part of the GBD–Burma Arc collision zone.     

Seasonal variability in mesopause region temperatures over Fort Collins, CO (41°N, 105°W) based on lidar observations, 1990 through 2007

Nearly 900 nocturnal temperature profiles (85–105 km) from the Colorado State University Na lidar at Fort Collins, CO (40.59N, 105.14W) from 1990 to 2007. After the removal of an episodic warming attributable to Mt. Pinatubo eruption, the time series is analyzed as the sum of the climatological mean, annual and semiannual oscillation, solar cycle effect and trends along with possible annual/semiannual modulation of the latter two. The direct seasonal variation is consistent with the concept of the two-level mesopause. The trends in summer and winter are comparable 90–96 km at −0.15±0.1 K/year. The summer trend turns positive above 96 km. The winter trend is negative with minimum of −0.3 K/year at 100 km but positive at 104 km. The negative trend values are a factor of five smaller than an earlier analysis of the early part of this data due to removal of an episodic event.     

A 14-year monthly climatology and trend in the 35–65 km altitude range from Rayleigh Lidar temperature measurements at a low latitude station

A sodium resonance lidar at 589 nm has been operated in São José dos Campos, Brazil (23°S, 46°W) since 1972 mainly for studies related to the origin, chemistry and dynamics of the mesospheric sodium layer. Beginning in 1993, the improved laser capability has also enabled the processing of the Rayleigh signal from which the temperatures from 35 to 65 km are retrieved on a nightly mean basis. We used these nightly profiles to determine the monthly temperature profiles from 1993 to 2006. The mean temperature characteristics for each year and for the whole period are obtained. Seasonal thermal amplitude is small (6 K peak to peak at 40 and 60 km). Compared with the MSISE-90 model, a large difference is noted, with temperature lower than the model below the stratopause and higher above. Also the seasonal variation has a large difference with better agreement occurring around local winter, but with temperatures higher by 8–10 K at the equinoxes. The semiannual component is dominant over the annual at all altitudes. Linear trends with decreasing temperature of 1.09, 2.29 and 1.42 K/decade are observed at 40, 50 and 60 km, respectively.     

Are fiddler crabs potentially useful ecosystem engineers in mangrove wastewater wetlands?

The effect of different organic-rich sewage concentration (0%, 20% and 60% diluted in seawater) and absence or presence of mangrove trees on the survival, bioturbation activities and burrow morphology of fiddler crabs species was assessed. After 6 months, males of both species always showed higher survival (80%) when compared to females (20%). Crabs inhabiting pristine conditions achieved higher survival (67–87%) than those living in sewage-exposed mesocosms (40–71%). At 60% sewage loading, fiddler crabs processed less sediment (34–46%) during feeding and excavated slightly more sediment (45–80%) than at pristine conditions. While percent volume of the burrow chambers increased (13–66%) at contaminated mesocosms for both vegetation conditions, burrows were shallower (33%) in bare cells loaded with sewage. The results show that fiddler crabs presented moderate mortality levels in these artificial mangrove wetlands, but mainly in sewage impacted cells. However, they still function as ecosystem engineers through bioturbation activities and burrow construction.     

OSL dating of paleoshorelines at Lagkor Tso, western Tibet

Lagkor Tso, a saline lake located south of Gertse in western Tibet exhibits spectacular flights of paleoshorelines. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating on quartz using the single-aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol from five paleoshoreline deposits shows that the lake level was 130 m higher than the present lake surface 5.2 ka ago. The lake level dropped rapidly by 25 m between 5.2 ka and 3.7 ka ago. Lake shrinkage further accelerated between 3.7 ka and 3.2 ka ago, when the lake level was just 74 m above the present lake surface. Luminescence characteristics and problematic samples are discussed.     

Radiometric dates for the Middle Palaeolithic sequence of Payre (Ardèche, France)

The archaeological site of Payre (France) yielded Middle Palaeolithic layers with Neanderthal remains, which are partly bracketed by two stalagmitic flowstones. To obtain a precise chronological framework for the human occupation and the faunal remains of this site, several dating methods were used: uranium-series (U-series by alpha spectrometry and TIMS) and electron spin resonance (ESR) on stalagmitic flowstones, combined ESR/U-series on teeth and bones, and thermoluminescence (TL) on burnt flints. Most of the ages obtained for levels H to C range from 300 to 140 ka. The age-spread obtained for the anthropic (burnt flints) and faunal remains (bones and teeth) suggests that the dated levels represent several human occupation periods, near the transition from MIS8 to MIS7 (levels G–F) and from MIS6 to MIS5 (levels D–E).     

Experimental models of extension of continental lithosphere weakened by percolation of asthenospheric melts

Analogue models are used to investigate extension of a continental lithosphere weakened by asthenospheric melts percolating through the upper mantle, a process that has been hypothesised to control the opening of the Ligurian Tethys. Models were performed in a centrifuge apparatus and reproduced, by using materials such as sand and viscous mixtures, extension of 60-km thick, three-layer continental lithosphere floating above the asthenosphere. The percolated lithospheric mantle was assumed to be characterised by a rheological behaviour similar to that of the asthenosphere. Two sets of experiments investigated the influence on deformation of (1) the thickness of the percolated mantle and the associated strength contrast between the normal and weakened lithosphere, and (2) the lateral width of the weakened zone. Model results suggest that mantle percolation by asthenospheric melts is able to promote strong localised thinning of the continental lithosphere, provided that a significant thickness of the lithospheric mantle is weakened by migrating melts within a narrow region. Strain localisation is maximised for percolation of the whole lithospheric mantle and strong strength contrast between the normal and weakened lithosphere. Under these conditions, the thickness of the lithosphere may be reduced to less than 12 km in 3 Ma of extension. Conversely, localised thinning is strongly reduced if the thickness of the percolated zone is ≤1/3 of the thickness of the whole lithospheric mantle and/or the lithosphere is weakened over wide regions. Overall, model results support the working hypothesis that mantle percolation by asthenospheric melts is a controlling factor in the transition from distributed continental deformation to localised oceanic spreading.     

Is ozone depletion really recovering?

The ozone depletion, which started in late 1970s seems to have reached a maximum level (minimum ozone) in 1996 and a recovery seems to have occurred thereafter up to 2003. But in the succeeding years 2004–2006, there seems to have occurred a relapse.     

Hydrothermal activity on the southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge: Tectonically- and volcanically-controlled venting at 4–5°S

We report results from an investigation of the geologic processes controlling hydrothermal activity along the previously-unstudied southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge (3–7°S). Our study employed the NOC (UK) deep-tow sidescan sonar instrument, TOBI, in concert with the WHOI (USA) autonomous underwater vehicle, ABE, to collect information concerning hydrothermal plume distributions in the water column co-registered with geologic investigations of the underlying seafloor. Two areas of high-temperature hydrothermal venting were identified. The first was situated in a non-transform discontinuity (NTD) between two adjacent second-order ridge-segments near 4°02′S, distant from any neovolcanic activity. This geologic setting is very similar to that of the ultramafic-hosted and tectonically-controlled Rainbow vent-site on the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The second site was located at 4°48′S at the axial-summit centre of a second-order ridge-segment. There, high-temperature venting is hosted in an  18 km² area of young lava flows which in some cases are observed to have flowed over and engulfed pre-existing chemosynthetic vent-fauna. In both appearance and extent, these lava flows are directly reminiscent of those emplaced in Winter 2005−06 at the East Pacific Rise, 9°50′N and reference to global seismic catalogues reveals that a swarm of large (M 4.6−5.6) seismic events was centred on the 5°S segment over a  24 h period in late June 2002, perhaps indicating the precise timing of this volcanic eruptive episode. Temperature measurements at one of the vents found directly adjacent to the fresh lava flows at 5°S MAR (Turtle Pits) have subsequently revealed vent-fluids that are actively phase separating under conditions very close to the Critical Point for seawater, at  3000 m depth and 407 °C: the hottest vent-fluids yet reported from anywhere along the global ridge crest.     

Critical phenomena in thermal conductivity: Implications for lower mantle dynamics

Microscopic mechanisms for heat transport in dense minerals (phonon scattering and photon attenuation) exhibit aspects of threshold behavior, discussed qualitatively here. For all minerals examined so-far using laser-flash analysis, the lattice component of the thermal conductivity of the mantle asymptotes to a constant above a critical temperature of 1500 K. Radiative transfer calculated from absorption spectra has thresholds in both grain-size and Fe content, and a rather complex dependence on temperature. These critical phenomena impact convection of the lower mantle, because the lattice contribution tends to destabilize the cold boundary layers, whereas radiative transfer mostly promotes stability in the lower mantle, unless the grains are large and Fe-rich, which makes convection chaotic and time-dependent. The specific behavior suggests that flow in the lower mantle is sluggish, whereas flow in the upper mantle-transition zone is time-dependent. The decrease in k_rad as Fe/(Fe + Mg) increases beyond 0.1 may be connected with formation of lower mantle, thermo-chemical plumes through positive feedback.     

New model simulations of the global atmospheric electric circuit driven by thunderstorms and electrified shower clouds: The roles of lightning and sprites

Several processes acting below, in and above thunderstorms and in electrified shower clouds drive upward currents which close through the global atmospheric electric circuit. These are all simulated in a novel way using the software package PSpice. A moderate negative cloud-to-ground lightning discharge from the base of a thunderstorm increases the ionospheric potential above the thundercloud by 0.0013%. Assuming the ionosphere to be an equipotential surface, this discharge increases the current flowing in the global circuit and the fair-weather electric field also by 0.0013%. A moderate positive cloud-to-ground lightning discharge from the bottom of a thunderstorm decreases the ionospheric potential by 0.014%. Such a discharge may trigger a sprite, causing the ionospheric potential to decrease by . The time scales for the recovery of the ionospheric potential are shown to be , which is of the same order as the CR time constant for the global circuit. Knowing the global average rate of lightning discharges, it is found that negative cloud-to-ground discharges increase the ionospheric potential by only 4%, and that positive cloud-to-ground discharges reduce it by 3%. Thus, overall, lightning contributes only 1%—an almost insignificant proportion—to maintaining the high potential of the ionosphere. It is concluded that the net upward current to the ionosphere due to lightning is only . Further, it is concluded that conduction and convection currents associated with “batteries” within thunderclouds and electrified shower clouds contribute essentially equally ( each) to maintaining the ionospheric potential.     

Long-term variability in mesopause region temperatures over Fort Collins, Colorado (41°N, 105°W) based on lidar observations from 1990 through 2007

During 1990–2007, there were 894 lidar observations of nocturnal mesopause region temperatures over Fort Collins, Colorado. In an earlier analysis with data to April 1997, an unexpected episodic warming, peaking in 1993 with a maximum value over 10 K, was reported and attributed to the Mount Pinatubo eruption in June 1991. With all data, long-term temperature trends from a 7-parameter linear regression analysis including solar cycle effect and long-term trends leads to a cooling of as much as 6.8 K/decade at 100 km, consistent with some reported observations but larger than model predictions. Including the observed episodic warming response in an 11-parameter nonlinear regression analysis reduces the maximum long-term cooling trends to 1.5 K/decade at 91 km, with magnitude and altitude dependences consistent with the prediction of two models, Spectral Mesosphere/Lower Thermosphere Model (SMLTM) and Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). In addition, the mid-latitude middle-atmospheric response to solar flux variability in Thermosphere–Ionosphere-Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED)/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperatures is presented.     

The Polar Cap (PC) indices: Relations to solar wind parameters and global magnetic activity

The polar geomagnetic activity resulting from solar wind–magnetosphere interactions can be characterized the Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN and PCS. PC index values are derived from polar magnetic variations calibrated on a statistical basis such that the index approximate values in units of mV/m of the interplanetary “geo-effective” (or “merging”) electric field (E_M) conveyed by the solar wind. The timing and amplitude relations of the PC index to solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters are reported. The solar wind effects are parameterized in terms of the geo-effective electric field (E_M) and the dynamical pressure (P_DYN). The PC index has a delayed and damped response to E_M variations and display saturation-like effects for E_M values exceeding 10 mV/m. Steady or slowly varying levels of solar wind dynamical pressure have little or no impact on the PC index above the effects related to E_M for which the solar wind velocity is also a factor. Sharp increases in the dynamical pressure generate impulsive variations in the PC index comprising a initial negative impulse of 5–10 min duration followed by a positive impulse lasting 10–20 min. Typical amplitudes of both the negative and the positive impulses are 0.2–0.5 units. A sharp decrease in the pressure produces the inverse sequence of pulses in the PC index. Auroral substorm activity represented by the AL index level has a marked influence on the average PC/E_M level at the transition from very quiet (AL0 nT) to disturbed conditions while more or less disturbed conditions (AL<−100 nT) have no systematic effect on the average PC/E_M values. At distinct substorm events the PC/E_M ratio has a minimum (0.8) in the pre-onset phase at around 20 min before substorm onset. The average ratio gradually increases in the expansion phase to reach a maximum value (1.1) at around 40 min after substorm onset (or 20 min after the largest (negative) peak in AL). At substorm recovery during the next 2 h the PC/E_M ratio decreases. Finally, we report on the application of polar magnetic variations to model the disturbance storm time (Dst) index development during magnetic storms by using the PC index as a source function to quantify the energy input to the ring current representing accumulated storm energy and characterized by the Dst index.     

Variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment during the Holocene and the past 50 kyr

All absolute paleointensity data published in peer-reviewed journals were recently compiled in the GEOMAGIA50 database. Based on the information in GEOMAGIA50, we reconstruct variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment over the past 50  kyr, with a focus on the Holocene period. A running-window approach is used to determine the axial dipole moment that provides the optimal least-squares fit to the paleointensity data, whereas associated error estimates are constrained using a bootstrap procedure. We subsequently compare the reconstruction from this study with previous reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole moment, including those based on cosmogenic radionuclides (¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C). This comparison generally lends support to the axial dipole moments obtained in this study. Our reconstruction shows that the evolution of the dipole moment was highly dynamic, and the recently observed rates of change (5% per century) do not appear unique. We observe no apparent link between the occurrence of archeomagnetic jerks and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment, suggesting that archeomagnetic jerks most likely represent drastic changes in the orientation of the geomagnetic dipole axis or periods characterized by large secular variation of the non-dipole field. This study also shows that the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment was high compared to that of the preceding  40  kyr, and that  4 · 10²²  Am² appears to represent a critical threshold below which geomagnetic excursions and reversals occur.