A water balance study of the upper White Nile basin flows in the late nineteenth century

Abstract

A water balance model of the Nile is described, working in terms of dry season flows. The main use of the modelling studies was to extend flows back to the start of observations at Aswan in 1869, and hence to estimate the levels of Lake Victoria during the high flow event of the 1870s. New estimates of Lake Victoria levels and outflows for the period 1870–1895 are deduced, extending the length of the observed data for Lake Victoria by some 25%. Crucially, the analysis includes the major flood event of 1878, which historical evidence suggests was the highest since 1860 or earlier. The modelling results are compared with previous estimates and a detailed examination of historical evidence. Some prospects for future levels are considered, taking into account the reconstructed levels of the late nineteenth century.     

Effect of variations in net basin supply on lake levels and outflows

Starting from a simplified version of the water balance equation, it is shown how the levels and outflows from a open lake can be related to the magnitude and statistical characteristics of the annual net basin supply series, which is defined as the net inflow arising from tributary inflows, rainfall on the lake surface and the lake evaporation. Using the models, estimates are derived for the response time for several large open lakes in Africa and Asia. Also, the observed net basin supply series for three major lakes (Victoria, Malawi and Toba) are investigated in detail. It is suggested that, on an annual basis, the assumption of a random normally distributed series of net basin supply can provide a reasonable first guess for the equilibrium response of a lake and for the likely range of variation of levels. These estimates are likely to be useful in water resources assessments and for investigations of the effects of land use and climate change on lake levels. The effects of departures from this simplified approach are discussed and are illustrated with some practical examples. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The water balance of Lake Kyoga,Uganda

Abstract

The annual water balance of Lake Kyoga is estimated by a comparison of upstream and downstream flows in the Nile channel during a period of reliable measurements (1940–1977), supported by rainfall records over the basin. The relative contributions of net lake rainfall and tributary inflows are estimated. Changes in annual rainfall and seasonal distribution are examined.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Brown, E. and Sutcliffe, J.V., 2013. The water balance of Lake Kyoga, Uganda. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 342–353.     

Water balance of Lake Victoria: update to 2000 and climate change modelling to 2100 / Bilan hydrologique du Lac Victoria: mise à jour jusqu’en 2000 et modélisation des impacts du changement climatique jusqu’en 2100

Abstract

Abstract An annual water balance model of Lake Victoria is derived for the period 1925–2000. Regression techniques are used to derive annual inputs to the water balance, based on lake rainfall data, measured and derived inflows and estimated evaporation during the historical period. This approach acknowledges that runoff is a nonlinear function of lake rainfall. A longer inflow series is produced here which is representative of the whole inflow to the lake, rather than just from individual tributaries. The results show a good simulation of annual lake levels and outflows and capture the high lake level in 1997–1998. Climate change scenarios, from a recent global climate model experiment, are applied to the lake rainfall inflow series and evaporation data to estimate future water balances of the lake. The scenarios produce a potential fall in lake levels by the 2030s horizon, and a rise by the 2080s horizon. A discussion of the application of climate change data to this complex hydrological system is presented.     

Modelling catchment inflows into Lake Victoria: uncertainties in rainfall–runoff modelling for the Nzoia River

Abstract

Climate and soil characteristics vary considerably around the Lake Victoria basin resulting in high spatial and temporal variability in catchment inflows. However, data for estimating the inflows are usually sparsely distributed and error-prone. Therefore, modelled estimates of the flows are highly uncertain, which could explain early difficulties in reproducing the lake water balance. The aim of this study was to improve the estimates of catchment flow to Lake Victoria. The WASMOD model was applied to the Nzoia River, one of the major tributaries to Lake Victoria. Uncertainty was assessed within the GLUE framework. During calibration, log-transformation was performed on both simulated and observed flows. The results showed that, despite its simple structure, WASMOD produces acceptable results for the basin. For a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) threshold of 0.6, the percentage of observations bracketed by simulations (POBS) was 74%, the average relative interval length (ARIL) was 0.93, and the maximum NS value was 0.865. The residuals were shown to be homoscedastic, normally distributed and nearly independent. When the NS threshold was increased to 0.8, POBS decreased to 54% with an improvement of ARIL to 0.49, highlighting the effect of the subjective choice of likelihood threshold.

Citation Kizza, M., Rodhe, A., Xu, C.-Y. & Ntale, H. K. (2011) Modelling catchment inflows into Lake Victoria: uncertainties in rainfall–runoff modelling for the Nzoia River. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1210–1226.     

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater supply of lakes: the case of Lake Raduńskie Górne (northern Poland,Kashubian Lake District)

ABSTRACT

The aim of the study was to locate and describe groundwater outflows in a selected lake basin and measure the spring output of water and the physical characteristics of the studied waters (temperature and conductivity). The final aim was to gauge the effects of the spring output on the lake hydrology. The time scope of the work included the period from January 2011 to September 2012. The spatial scope of the work included the area of Lake Raduńskie Górne and its direct catchment located in the Kashubian Lake District in northern Poland. Four groundwater outflows were located in the course of the study. Their total output was 4.6 L s^?1 and ranged between 0.5 and 2.5 L s^?1. This produces an annual yield of about 145 000 m³ year^?1. These results confirm that one of the forms of supply to the lakes are the under-lake springs. For lakes located in the area of young glacial accumulation this can be decisive.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor D. Gerten     

D) Other Organisations—D) Autres Organisations

Abstract

Lake Poopó, within the large Altiplano basin of Bolivia, is connected upstream to Lake Titicaca and downstream to the salares, the big salt fields. Small changes in precipitation and river inflows strongly affect the extent of the lake surface area. For times when there are no satellite images, it is difficult to determine the extent of the lake from observations. Water balance computations were performed to create a water-level series for Lake Poopó extending back in time. The dominant water inflow to Lake Poopó is from the River Desaguadero, which constitutes the outflow of Lake Titicaca. The water-balance computations confirm the crude peasant knowledge about historical lake status. It is found that if the lake level is less than 1 m during the wet season, there is a risk that this shallow lake dries out in the dry season.     

Estimating daily streamflow in the Congo Basin using satellite-derived data and a semi-distributed hydrological model

ABSTRACT

The application of remotely-sensed data for hydrological modeling of the Congo Basin is presented. Satellite-derived data, including TRMM precipitation, are used as inputs to drive the USGS Geospatial Streamflow Model (GeoSFM) to estimate daily river discharge over the basin from 1998 to 2012. Physically-based parameterization was augmented with a spatially-distributed calibration that enables GeoSFM to simulate hydrological processes such as the slowing effect of the Cuvette Centrale. The resulting simulated long-term mean of daily flows and the observed flow at the Kinshasa gauge were comparable (40 631 and 40 638 m³/s respectively), in the 7-year validation period (2004–2010), with no significant bias and a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.70. Modeled daily flows and aggregated monthly river outflows (compared to historical averages) for additional sites confirm the model reliability in capturing flow timing and seasonality across the basin, but sometimes fails to accurately predict flow magnitude. The results of this model can be useful in research and decision-making contexts and validate the application of satellite-based hydrological models driven for large, data-scarce river systems such as the Congo.     

Analysis of Lake Victoria levels

ABSTRACT

Time series of levels of Lake Victoria as measured at four points are analysed for trends, periodicities and autoregressive components. Comparisons are made with results of time series analysis of Lake Superior which is a similarly sized lake. Checks are made for evidence of differential crustal movement using differences between time series on opposite sides of the lake.     

On the feasibility of using a lake water balance model to infer rainfall: an example from Lake Victoria

Abstract

A water balance model of Lake Victoria that can be used to assess rainfall from lake level, is derived. The model utilizes satellite estimates of rainfall directly over the lake. The model, initially derived and calibrated for the period 1956–1978, is reformulated here in such a way that all water balance terms except evaporation can be calculated from a combination of catchment rainfall and level of the lake. The reformulated model is validated and used to predict lake level fluctuations during the period 1931–1994. An error analysis is also performed. The model is then “inverted” to solve for mean rainfall conditions during various intervals of changing lake levels. For modern periods with known rainfall conditions, the error in model estimates is of the order of 1%.     

Monitoring the water balance of Lake Victoria, East Africa, from space

Using satellite gravimetric and altimetric data, we examine trends in water storage and lake levels of multiple lakes in the Great Rift Valley region of East Africa for the years 2003–2008. GRACE total water storage estimates reveal that water storage declined in much of East Africa, by as much as , while altimetric data show that lake levels in some large lakes dropped by as much as 1–2 m. The largest declines occurred in Lake Victoria, the Earth’s second largest freshwater body. Because the discharge from the outlet of Lake Victoria is used to generate hydroelectric power, the role of human management in the lake’s decline has been questioned. By comparing catchment water storage trends to lake level trends, we confirm that climatic forcing explains only about 50decline. This analysis provides an independent means of assessing the relative impacts of climate and human management on the water balance of Lake Victoria that does not depend on observations of dam discharge, which may not be publically available. In the second part of the study, the individual components of the lake water balance are estimated. Satellite estimates of changes in lake level, precipitation, and evaporation are used with observed lake discharge to develop a parameterization for estimating subsurface inflows due to changes in groundwater storage estimated from satellite gravimetry. At seasonal timescales, this approach provides closure to Lake Victoria’s water balance to within . The third part of this study uses the water balance of a downstream water body, Lake Kyoga, to estimate the outflow from Lake Victoria remotely. Because Lake Kyoga is roughly 20 times smaller in area than Lake Victoria, its water balance is strongly influenced by inflow from Lake Victoria. Lake Kyoga has been shown to act as a linear reservoir, where its outflow is proportional to the height of the lake. This model can be used with satellite altimetric lake levels to estimate a time series of Lake Victoria discharge with an rms error of about .     

多目标驱动的太湖调度水位研究

太湖是流域洪水集散地、水资源调配中心,也是长三角水生态环境的晴雨表,其水位高低影响防洪、供水、水生态、水环境等系统功能,使得太湖面临统筹调度问题日益凸显。本文以太湖为主要研究对象,基于多年实测数据,采用数理统计、河网水动力模型计算,分析流域降雨、进出湖水量和水生态环境演变规律及其与太湖水位的互馈关系,综合考虑不同调度期流域防洪、供水、水生态、水环境目标及其承受风险的时空差异性,优化太湖调度水位,并在此基础上提出太湖调度功能区划图。结果表明,在设计洪水和供水条件下,通过调度水位调整,统筹调控流域水工程,前期预降太湖水位,后期适抬太湖水位,实现太湖多目标调度,可有效保障流域防洪、供水和航运安全,改善河湖生态环境,共绘美丽太湖。     

Modelling lake stage and water balance of Lake Tana,Ethiopia

The level of Lake Tana, Ethiopia, fluctuates annually and seasonally following the patterns of changes in precipitation. In this study, a mass balance approach is used to estimate the hydrological balance of the lake. Water influx from four major rivers, subsurface inflow from the floodplains, precipitation, outflow from the lake constituting river discharge and evapotranspiration from the lake are analysed on monthly and annual bases. Spatial interpolation of precipitation using rain gauge data was conducted using kriging. Outflow from the lake was identified as the evaporation from the lake's surface as well as discharge at the outlet where the Blue Nile commences. Groundwater inflow is estimated using MODular three‐dimensional finite‐difference ground‐water FLOW model software that showed an aligned flow pattern to the river channels. The groundwater outflow is considered negligible based on the secondary sources that confirmed the absence of lake water geochemical mixing outside of the basin. Evaporation is estimated using Penman's, Meyer's and Thornwaite's methods to compare the mass balance and energy balance approaches. Meteorological data, satellite images and temperature perturbation simulations from Global Historical Climate Network of National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration are employed for estimation of evaporation input parameters. The difference of the inflow and outflow was taken as storage in depth and compared with the measured water level fluctuations. The study has shown that the monthly and annually calculated lake level replicates the observed values with root mean square error value of 0·17 and 0·15 m, respectively. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of a spreadsheet hydrological model for computing the long-term water balance of Lake Awassa,Ethiopia

Abstract

The water balance of the closed freshwater Lake Awassa was estimated using a spreadsheet hydrological model based on long-term monthly hydrometeorological data. The model uses monthly evaporation, river discharge and precipitation data as input. The net groundwater flux is obtained from model simulation as a residual of other water balance components. The result revealed that evaporation, precipitation, and runoff constitute 131, 106 and 83 × 10⁶ m³ of the annual water balance of the lake, respectively. The annual net groundwater outflow from the lake to adjacent basins is 58 × 10⁶ m³. The simulated and recorded lake levels fit well for much of the simulation period (1981–1999). However, for recent years, the simulated and recorded levels do not fit well. This may be explained in terms of the combined effects of land-use change and neotectonism, which have affected the long-term average water balance. With detailed long-term hydrogeological and meteorological data, investigation of the subsurface hydrodynamics, and including the effect of land-use change and tectonism on surface water and groundwater fluxes, the water balance model can be used efficiently for water management practice. The result of this study is expected to play a positive role in future sustainable use of water resources in the catchment.     

洞庭湖近几十年来湖盆变化及冲淤特征

洞庭湖是我国著名的五大淡水湖泊之一,位于长江中游荆江段南岸,湖南省境内.历史时期,曾经是我国第一大淡水湖,直至新中国成立初期,湖泊面积仍然有4350km2,居我国淡水湖泊之首位.但由于洞庭湖承纳“四水”,吞吐长江,长江大量水沙涌入洞庭湖,造成了湖盆迅速淤高,加之由此诱发的人类大规模地湖泊垦殖活动,湖泊急剧萎缩.目前,洞庭湖已退居鄱阳湖之后,为我国第二大淡水湖泊.湖泊的严重泥沙淤积,已经造成了湖泊调蓄长江中游洪水功能的严重衰退,不但危及湖南省的防洪的安全,而且危及长江中下游地区的防洪安全,研究洞庭湖的湖盆冲淤演变具有重要意义.本文根据1974、1988和1998年洞庭湖125000水下地形资料,并针对洞庭湖具有显著上下游水位落差的实际,分不同高程和不同水位情况下,分析洞庭湖湖泊面积和容积演变特征,探讨洞庭湖近几十年来的湖盆变化及冲淤规律,试图揭示洞庭湖湖泊调蓄能力的变化过程.     

Proglacial sediment trapping in recently formed Silt Lake,upper Lillooet Valley,Coast Mountains,British Columbia

The sedimentology of proglacial Silt Lake was assessed by lake sediment coring and monitoring of lacustrine processes during a late‐summer period of high glacier melt to characterize sediment delivery from the heavily glacierized catchment and investigate the sediment trapping dynamics of this upland lake. A complete varve chronology was established for a distal basin of the lake which was exposed by Lillooet Glacier retreat between 1947 and 1962. The varve record showed decreasing sedimentation rates in the basin while the glacier retreated, and as the lake became free of ice contact in the early 1970s. Although recession has continued over recent decades, and glacier proximity to the lake has, therefore, continued decreasing, lacustrine sedimentation rates are now accelerating due to changing basin morphometry caused by delta progradation. Over shorter time scales, lake sedimentation patterns respond to changing runoff conditions, including late‐summer glacier melt intensity, intra‐annual flooding events, diumal runoff fluctuations, and within‐lake turbidity currents. Turbidity currents included quasi‐regular flows during high diurnal discharges and an episodic flushing of temporarily stored sediment from the sandur or delta at a time of low stage. Suspended sediment yield to Silt Lake is estimated to exceed 10³ Mg km^?2 a^?1, a magnitude that surpasses previous local and regional yield estimates for the glacierized headwaters of the Lillooet River valley. Since Silt Lake currently traps a significant prooportion of that upland sediment supply, and the trapping efficiency of the basin has been variable at decadal time scales, the formation and continued development of Lilt Lake has likely had a significant influence on downstream sediment delivery. Lacustrine sediment‐based proxies of long‐term hydroclimatic variability being developed in glacially distal settings should include provisions for dynamic sediment trapping effects in upstream water bodies that often form in the active proglacial environment. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrating water management,habitat modelling and water quality at the basin scale and environmental flow assessment: case study of the Tormes River,Spain

Abstract

Multidisciplinary models are useful for integrating different disciplines when addressing water planning and management problems. We combine water resources management, water quality and habitat analysis tools that were developed with the decision support system AQUATOOL at the basin scale. The water management model solves the allocation problem through network flow optimization and considers the environmental flows in some river stretches. Once volumes and flows are estimated, the water quality model is applied. Furthermore, the flows are evaluated from an ecological perspective using time series of aquatic species habitat indicators. This approach was applied in the Tormes River Water System, where agricultural demands jeopardize the environmental needs of the river ecosystem. Additionally, water quality problems in the lower part of the river result from wastewater loading and agricultural pollution. Our methodological framework can be used to define water management rules that maintain water supply, aquatic ecosystem and legal standards of water quality. The integration of ecological and water management criteria in a software platform with objective criteria and heuristic optimization procedures allows realistic assessment and application of environmental flows to be made. Here, we improve the general methodological framework by assessing the hydrological alteration of selected environmental flow regime scenarios.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Paredes-Arquiola, J., Solera, A., Martinez-Capel, F., Momblanch, A., and Andreu, J., 2014. Integrating water management, habitat modelling and water quality at the basin scale and environmental flow assessment: case study of the Tormes River, Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 878–889.     

Multi-block lattice Boltzmann simulations of solute transport in shallow water flows

We report a two-dimensional multi-block lattice Boltzmann model for solute transport in shallow water flows, which is developed based on the advection–diffusion equation for mass transport and the shallow water equations for the flows. A weighting factor is included in the centered scheme for improved accuracy. The model is firstly verified by simulating three benchmark tests: wind-driven circulation in a dish-shaped lake, jet-forced flow in a circular basin, and flow formed by two parallel streams containing different uniform concentrations at the same constant velocity; and then it is applied to a practical wind-induced flow, Baiyangdian Lake, which is characterized by irregular geometries and complex bathymetries. The numerical results have shown that the model is able to produce accurate and detailed results for both water flows and solute transport, which is attractive, especially for flows in narrow zones of practical terrains and certain areas with largely varying pollutant concentrations.     

Sediment balances in the Blue Nile River Basin

Rapid population growth in the upper Blue Nile basin has led to fast land-use changes from natural forest to agricultural land.This resulted in speeding up the soil erosion process in the highlands and increasing sedimentation further downstream in reservoirs and irrigation canals.At present,several dams are planned across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is currently under construction near the border with Sudan.This will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.The objective of this paper is to quantify the river flows and sediment loads along the Blue Nile River network.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to estimate the water flows from un-gauged sub-basins.To assess model performance,the estimated sediment loads were compared to the measured ones at selected locations.For the gauged sub-basins,water flows and sediment loads were derived from the available flow and sediment data.To fill in knowledge gaps,this study included a field survey in which new data on suspended solids and flow discharge were collected along the Blue Nile and on a number of tributaries.The comparison between the results of this study and previous estimates of the sediment load of the Blue Nile River at El Deim,near the Ethiopian Sudanese border,show that the sediment budgets have the right order of magnitude,although some uncertainties remain.This gives confidence in the results of this study providing the first sediment balance of the entire Blue Nile catchment at the sub-basin scale.