区域河川径流量时空变异特征及成因分析——以广东省为例

运用最大似然比和西沃兹信息标准的变点识别方法,对广东省主要江河1956-1999年的年径流量、汛期径流量、枯水期径流量和最小月径流量的年序列,进行均值变点和方差变点识别,得出径流量特征值存在变点的序列类型、时间位置、空间分布及时序变点前后的特征值变化状况,结合广东省降雨量序列变点识别、水利工程设施建设等气候和人类活动影...     

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing,China

Abstract

Quantitative assessment of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff is very important for regional sustainable water resources adaptive management. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to identify the trends in and change points of the annual runoff with the aim of analysing the changing characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The study presents the analytical derivation of a method which combines six Budyko hypothesis-based water–energy balance equations with the Penman-Monteith equation to separate the effects of climate change and human activities. The method takes several climate variables into consideration. Results based on data from the Yongding River basin, China, show that climate change is estimated to account for 10.5–12.6% of the reduction in annual runoff and human activities contribute to 87.4–89.5% of the runoff decline. The results indicate that human activities are the main driving factors for the reduction in runoff.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.Y. Xu     

An innovative method to estimate regional-scale hydraulic diffusivity using GRACE data

ABSTRACT

Estimation of hydraulic properties in the field is usually small-scale and not cost-effective. This paper proposes an innovative method for estimating hydraulic diffusivity at regional scale. Monthly groundwater storage change over the period from 2003 to 2013 is first estimated from GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage (TWS). Assuming that the aquifer system is unconfined and the hydraulic properties are uniform in a geographical cell, the water balance principle and Darcy’s law are used to establish a relation between groundwater storage and hydraulic diffusivity. The value of hydraulic diffusivity is then adjusted using the generalized least squares and linear correlation method. This GRACE-derived hydraulic diffusivity estimation method, or GHDE method for short, is first verified with a hypothetical case and then applied in the Beishan area with available field-measured hydraulic conductivity data. The hypothetical case study demonstrates that the method works perfectly if the TWS data are error free. The Beishan case study illustrates that the estimated hydraulic diffusivities using the GHDE method correlate reasonably well with field test results, suggesting that this method is applicable. The accuracy of this method is constrained by the resolution of the GRACE-derived TWS data and is most suitable for very large scale groundwater problems due to the current accuracy of the GRACE data.

EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR N. Verhoest     

Letters to the Editor

Abstract

This work investigates historical trends of meteorological drought in Taiwan by means of long-term precipitation records. Information on local climate change over the last century is also presented. Monthly and daily precipitation data for roughly 100 years, collected by 22 weather stations, were used as the study database. Meteorological droughts of different levels of severity are represented by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at a three-monthly time scale. Additionally, change-point detection is used to identify meteorological drought trends in the SPI series. Results of the analysis indicate that the incidence of meteorological drought has decreased in northeastern Taiwan since around 1960, and increased in central and southern Taiwan. Long-term daily precipitation series show an increasing trend for dry days all over Taiwan. Finally, frequency analysis was performed to obtain further information on trends of return periods of drought characteristics.     

Flood season segmentation based on the probability change-point analysis technique

Abstract

The segmentation of flood seasons has both theoretical and practical importance in hydrological sciences and water resources management. The probability change-point analysis technique is applied to segmenting a defined flood season into a number of sub-seasons. Two alternative sampling methods, annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold, are used to construct the new flow series. The series is assumed to follow the binomial distribution and is analysed with the probability change-point analysis technique. A Monte Carlo experiment is designed to evaluate the performance of proposed flood season segmentation models. It is shown that the change-point based models for flood season segmentation can rationally partition a flood season into appropriate sub-seasons. China's new Three Gorges Reservoir, located on the upper Yangtze River, was selected as a case study since a hydrological station with observed flow data from 1882 to 2003 is located 40 km downstream of the dam. The flood season of the reservoir can be reasonably divided into three sub-seasons: the pre-flood season (1 June–2 July); the main flood season (3 July–10 September); and the post-flood season (11–30 September). The results of flood season segmentation and the characteristics of flood events are reasonable for this region.

Citation Liu, P., Guo, S., Xiong, L. & Chen, L. (2010) Flood season segmentation based on the probability change-point analysis technique. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 540–554.     

THE TWO-AXIS METHOD: A NEW METHOD TO CALCULATE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER A BASIN / La deux-axes méthode: une nouvelle méthode pour la calculation de la précipitation moyenne d'un bassin versant

Abstract

The two-axis method, used to calculate average precipitation over a basin, is based on three assumptions inherent in the Thiessen and isohyetal methods. The method follows four steps: (1) The two axes of a basin are drawn following a standard procedure; (2) for each raingauge location a station angle is determined by either measuring or calculating the angle between lines connecting the station location to the farthest ends of the two axes; (3) each station is assigned a weight (the ratio of its angle to the sum of all station angles); (4) average area precipitation is calculated as the sum of the products of corresponding station weights and measured precipitation. The method is fast, efficient, and is readily computerized.     

Simulated precipitation fields with variance-consistent interpolation

Abstract

Gridded meteorological data are available for all of Norway as time series dating from 1961. A new way of interpolating precipitation in space from observed values is proposed. Based on the criteria that interpolated precipitation fields in space should be consistent with observed spatial statistics, such as spatial mean, variance and intermittency, spatial fields of precipitation are simulated from a gamma distribution with parameters determined from observed data, adjusted for intermittency. The simulated data are distributed in space, using the spatial pattern derived from kriging. The proposed method is compared to indicator kriging and to the current methodology used for producing gridded precipitation data. Cross-validation gave similar results for the three methods with respect to RMSE, temporal mean and standard deviation, whereas a comparison on estimated spatial variance showed that the new method has a near perfect agreement with observations. Indicator kriging underestimated the spatial variance by 60–80% and the current method produced a significant scatter in its estimates.

Citation Skaugen, T. & Andersen, J. (2010) Simulated precipitation fields with variance-consistent interpolation. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 676–686.     

Retrospective multivariate Bayesian change-point analysis: A simultaneous single change in the mean of several hydrological sequences

Although hydrological time series for different sites in a given region are usually correlated and that climate changes should have a regional impact on water resources, very little has appeared in the literature about multivariate change-point analysis. This paper generalizes the univariate Bayesian approach for the detection of a single shift in the mean level to study a change in the mean-vector of a sequence of multivariate normal vectors. Two different problems are considered: the first one is the estimation of the unknown regional change-point under the hypothesis that a shift occurred, while the second one is the overall assessment of change versus no change. This method is illustrated by an application to streamflow data series for six rivers situated in the Northern Québec Labrador region.     

The distribution of Spearman’s rho trend statistic for persistent hydrologic data

Abstract

Spearman’s rho, a distribution-free statistic, has been suggested in the literature for testing the significance of trend in time series data. Although the use of the test based on Spearman’s rho (also known as the Daniels test) is less widespread than that based on Kendall’s tau (the Mann-Kendall test), the two tests have been shown in the literature to be equivalent for time series with independent observations. The distribution of the Mann-Kendall trend statistic for persistent data has been previously addressed in the literature. In this paper, the distribution of Spearman’s rho as a trend test statistic for persistent data is studied. Following the same procedures used for Kendall’s tau in earlier work, an exact expression for the variance of Spearman’s rho for persistent data with multivariate Gaussian dependence is derived, and a method for calculating the exact full distribution of rho for small sample sizes is also outlined. Approximations for moderate and large sample sizes are also discussed. A case study of testing the significance of trends in a group of world river flow station data using both Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho is presented. Both the theoretical results and those of the case study confirm the equivalence of trend testing based on Spearman’s rho and Kendall’s tau for persistent hydrologic data.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi     

Identification of aquifer parameters from residual drawdowns: an optimization approach

Abstract

An optimization method based on nonlinear least squares is proposed for the identification of aquifer transmissivity and two storage coefficients, one for the pumping phase and the other for the recovery phase, using only residual drawdowns at an observation well. The method is applicable irrespective of whether pumping and recovery storage coefficients are the same or are different and the argument of well function during recovery is less than or greater than 0.01. The method can check for the changed value of storage coefficient during the recovery phase and can quantify this change. Use of the method is illustrated through examples, which show that the parameters are estimated reliably.     

Study on the property of apparent resistivity changes of rock samples by in situ shear and friction test

In the strip limestone mine in Guiding county, Guizhou Province the shear and frictionin situ tests of rock body were made for the three typical inclined weak bands C ₃ ¹ /C ₃ ¹ , C ₃ ¹ /C ₂ ² and C ₂ ² /C ₂ ¹ . The tests were made according to the second scheme of cuneate sample of the standards on rock mechanics test of Water Conservancy and Electricity Ministry. The changes of the resistivity in the weak band and the acoustic speed across the weak band were measured in the same time. The apparent resistivity data, obtained for 8 samples on 27 measure lines in 38 cycle tests, show that the apparent resistivity changes have rather obvious characters as follows: 1. At shear and friction stage, the change of the apparent resistivity accelerates after the yield point, and reaches the maximum of change rate and change amplitude near fracture point (except the lines with resistivity invariant); 2. On the same sample, the resistivity changes are different on the various lines and related to the location settled the lines, there are some “sensitive” location; 3. At the stage of preloading normal stress before shearing, the resistivity decreases on most lines, but on a few lines the resistivity does not changes; 4. After unloading shear stress, the resistivity could not recover completely and the hysteresis of resistiviity takes place on a few lines. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 217–223, 1993. Support for this research was received from Guiding strip limestone mine, Guizhou Organic Chemistry Factory. This research is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

A simulation study to examine the sensitivity of the Pettitt test to detect abrupt changes in mean

Abstract

The Pettitt test is a non-parametric test that has been used in a number of hydroclimatological studies to detect abrupt changes in the mean of the distribution of the variable of interest. This test is based on the Mann-Whitney two-sample test (rank-based test), and allows the detection of a single shift at an unknown point in time. This test is often used to detect shifts in extremes because of the lack of distributional assumptions. However, the downside of not specifying a distribution is that the Pettitt test may be inefficient in detecting breaks when dealing with extremes. Here we adopt a Monte Carlo approach to examine the sensitivity of the Pettitt test in detecting shifts in the mean under different conditions (location of the break within the series, magnitude of the shift, record length, level of variability in the data, extreme vs non-extreme records, and pre-assigned significance level). These simulation results show that the sensitivity of this test in detecting abrupt changes increases with the increase in the magnitude of the shift and record length. The number of detections is higher when the time series represents the central part of the distribution (e.g. changes in the time series of medians), while the skill decreases as we move toward either low or high extremes (e.g. changes in the time series of maxima). Furthermore, the number of detections decreases as the variability in the data increases. Finally, abrupt changes are more easily detected when they occur toward the center of the time series.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor K. Hamed     

Comparing various approaches for assessing groundwater recharge at a regional scale in the Canadian Shield

ABSTRACT

Estimating groundwater recharge is crucial to ensuring the proper management of aquifers. In this study, net regional recharge and spatial potential recharge are estimated at four watersheds within the Charlevoix–Haute-Côte-Nord (CHCN) regions, Quebec Province, Canada. Four methods are applied based on available data. The first two approaches are regional water budget methods. These two methods differ in their estimation of vertical inflow (VI), which is estimated from two hydrological models: GR4J and HYDROTEL. The third method estimates potential recharge spatially over the study area. Finally, the streamflow data are analysed using the Eckhardt baseflow separation method to obtain an estimation of recharge, assuming that discharge is equal to recharge. According to the results of all investigated methods, the mean annual recharge for the CHCN region is approximately 183 mm, which is 18% of the total annual precipitation (P). The discussion section highlights uncertainties due to the assumptions of each method and the reliability of the data.     

Trends in hydrological and climatic variables affected by four variations of the Mann-Kendall approach in Urmia Lake basin,Iran

ABSTRACT

The trends in hydrological and climatic time series data of Urmia Lake basin in Iran were examined using the four different versions of the Mann-Kendall (MK) approach: (i) the original MK test; (ii) the MK test considering the effect of lag-1 autocorrelation; (iii) the MK test considering the effect of all autocorrelation or sample size; and (iv) the MK test considering the Hurst coefficient. Identification of hydrological and climatic data trends was carried out at monthly and annual time scales for 25 temperature, 35 precipitation and 35 streamflow gauging stations selected from the Urmia Lake basin. Mann-Kendall and Pearson tests were also applied to explore the relationships between temperature, precipitation and streamflow trends. The results show statistically significant upward and downward trends in the annual and monthly hydrological and climatic variables. The upward trends in temperature, unlike streamflow, are much more pronounced than the downward trends, but for precipitation the behaviour of trend is different on monthly and annual time scales. Furthermore, the trend results were affected by the different approaches. Specifically, the number of stations showing trends in hydrological and climatic variables decreased significantly (up to 50%) when the fourth test was considered instead of the first and the absolute value of the Z statistic for most of the time series was reduced. The results of correlations between streamflow and climatic variables showed that the streamflow in Urmia Lake basin is more sensitive to changes in temperature than those of precipitation. The observed decreases in streamflow and increases in temperature in the Urmia Lake basin in recent decades may thus have serious implications for water resources management under the warming climate with the expected population growth and increased freshwater consumption in this region.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang     

Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies

Abstract

Hydrological data may be temporally autocorrelated requiring autoregressive process parameters to be estimated. Current statistical methods for hydrological change detection in paired watershed studies rely on prediction intervals, but the current form of prediction intervals does not include all appropriate sources of variation. Corrected prediction intervals for the analysis of paired watershed study data that include variation associated with covariance and linear model parameter estimation are presented. We provide an example of their application to data from the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study located in the western Cascade foothills of Southern Oregon, USA. Research implications of using the correct prediction limits and incorporating the estimation uncertainty of autoregressive process parameters are discussed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Som, N.A., Zégre, N.P., Ganio, L.M. and Skaugset, A.E., 2012. Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 134–143.     

利用ICESat数据解算南极冰盖冰雪质量变化

南极冰盖冰雪质量变化反映了全球气候变化,并且直接影响着全球海平面变化.ICESat测高卫星的主要任务之一就是要确定南北两极冰盖的质量变化情况并评估其对全球海平面变化的影响.本文利用2003年10月至2008年12月的ICESat测高数据,针对南极DEM分辨率有限的特殊性,通过求解坡度改正值,解决重复轨道地面脚点不重合的问题,计算了南极大陆(86°S以北区域,后文所述南极冰盖均不包括86°S以南区域)在这5年里的冰雪质量变化情况,得到东南极冰盖的质量变化为-18±20Gt/a,西南极-26±6Gt/a,南极冰盖的冰雪质量变化为-44±21Gt/a,对全球海平面上升的影响约为0.12mm·a~(-1).解算结果表明,南极冰盖质量亏损主要集中在西南极阿蒙森海岸附近冰川以及东南极波因塞特角区域.     

Unit hydrograph estimation with multiple events and prior information: II. Evaluation of the method

Abstract

The method of regularization with additional information proposed by the authors is evaluated in a split sample test which compares it with the least squares and ordinary regularization methods. Data from 30 catchments are used. Additional information is provided by a simple conceptual model either fitted by a regression on physical characteristics of the catchment or fitted to the catchment lag determined from the data. The method is very useful when only a few rainfall/runoff events are available for analysis. When a large number of events is available, the ordinary regularization method is sufficient.     

A new method for testing pile by single-impact energy and P-S curve

By studying the pile-formula and stress-wave methods (e.g., CASE method), the authors propose a new method for testing piles using the single-impact energy and P-S curves. The vibration and wave figures are recorded, and the dynamic and static displacements are measured by different transducers near the top of piles when the pile is impacted by a heavy hammer or micro-rocket. By observing the transformation coefficient of driving energy (total energy), the consumed energy of wave motion and vibration and so on, the vertical bearing capacity for single pile is measured and calculated. Then, using the vibration wave diagram, the dynamic relation curves between the force (P) and the displacement (S) is calculated and the yield points are determined. Using the static-loading test, the dynamic results are checked and the relative constants of dynamic-static P-S curves are determined. Then the subsidence quantity corresponding to the bearing capacity is determined. Moreover, the shaped quality of the pile body can be judged from the formation of P-S curves. Foundation item: Key Projects of Tenth Five-year Plan of Yunnan Province (54-02-02).     

Performance of the steady-state dipole flow test in layered aquifers

Steady-state numerical simulations of the dipole flow test in layered aquifers demonstrate that the test produces a good estimate of the equivalent hydraulic conductivity anisotropy ratio for the part of the aquifer spanned by the well chambers. The effects of chamber size, different conductivity of layers and layer location on the estimated anisotropy ratios are presented. The steady-state dipole flow test, when performed at different levels in the well, can yield estimates of the down-hole anisotropy ratio distribution. Numerical simulations also illustrate that the skin effect can significantly distort the anisotropy estimates produced by the dipole flow test. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A canonical correlation approach to the determination of homogeneous regions for regional flood estimation of ungauged basins

Abstract

A canonical correlation method for determining the homogeneous regions used for estimating flood characteristics of ungauged basins is described. The method emphasizes graphical and quantitative analysis of relationships between the basin and flood variables before the data of the gauged basins are used for estimating the flood variables of the ungauged basin. The method can be used for both homogeneous regions, determined a priori by clustering algorithms in the space of the flood-related canonical variables, as well as for “regions of influence” or “neighbourhoods” centred on the point representing the estimated location of the ungauged basin in that space.