Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity.It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate.The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.     

Sediment budget and riverbed deformation in the uppermost part of the lower Yangtze River,China

The Yangtze River(YR), similar to most large rivers in the world, has experienced significant changes in its depositional environment due to anthropogenic disturbances and climatic influences in recent decades. However, knowledge of how the river channel and bed deformation respond to these changes in the uppermost part of the lower YR, a 200-km-long branched channel, is limited. In the current study,historical bathymetric data collected from 1992 to 2013 and high-resolution multibeam echo sound...     

Ospar 98/3: an environmental turning point or a flawed decision?

While the problems of over-fishing and eutrophication continue largely unchecked, the Ospar Commission, which exists to improve the quality of European seas, requires governments, the public and the oil companies to find 20 billion Pounds to remove millions of tons of steel to demonstrate its commitment to the mantra that 'the seas are not dustbins'. The decision, taken in 1998, was made despite a paucity of evidence to identify the environmental impact redundant rigs create, despite the absence of scientific support to demonstrate that removal is the best practicable environmental option and in the knowledge that the decision had more to do with a green anti-oil agenda than with improving marine quality. It may be shown in the fullness of time not to be in the best interests of the environment. Moreover, and perhaps more importantly, the manner in which the decision was made is lacking in important respects.     

The fate of suspended sediment and particulate organic carbon in transit through the channels of a river catchment

Particulate organic matter (POM) transiting through rivers could be lost to overbank storage, stored in‐channel, added to by erosion or autochthonous production, or turned over to release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere (either while in the water column or while stored in the channel). In the UK, a net loss of POM across catchments has been recorded, and the aim here was to investigate the balances of processes acting on the POM. This study considered records of suspended sediment and POM flux in comparison to stream flow, velocity, stream power, and residence time for the River Trent (English Midlands, 8,231 km²). We show that for the lower two thirds (106 km) of the River Trent, 2% is lost to overbank storage; 10% is lost to the atmosphere in the water column; and 31% is turned over while in temporary storage. Permanent in‐channel storage is negligible, and for the lower course of the river, material stored in‐channel will have a residence time of the order of hundreds of days between the last flood hydrograph of one winter and the first winter storm of the next winter (usually in the same calendar year). When considered at the scale of the UK, 1% POM in transit would be lost to overbank sedimentation; 5% turned over in the water column, and 14% turned over while in temporary storage. In the upper third of the study river channel, there is insufficient stream power to transport sediment and so in‐channel storage or in‐channel turnover over to the atmosphere dominate. The in‐channel processes of the River Trent do not conform to that expected for river channels as the headwaters are not eroding or transporting sediment. Therefore, the source of sediment must be lower down the channel network.     

Effects of heavy metal contamination on the macrobenthic fauna in estuaries: the case of the Seine estuary

Heavy metal contamination levels are generally higher in estuaries than in the open sea. Some estuaries, the Seine estuary for example, have particularly high pollution levels of metals, yet continue to support a very high benthic biomass and remain quite productive. Measurements of sediment contamination are highly variable due to diverse chemical analysis methods, sediments origin and sources of contaminants found in the estuaries. Salinity appears to be the principal factor controlling contaminant distribution in the sediment and the overlying and/or interstitial waters; it also affects the bioavailability of contaminants in estuarine sediments. Of course, the response to contaminants varies greatly among species and assemblages. Trace metals explain only a small part of the variation in benthic community structure. Some species, such as the shrimp Crangon crangon, appears vulnerable to metal pollution, while other species, such as Scrobicularia plana, are able to tolerate quite high levels of cadmium in their tissue. This paper demonstrates the wide variability of benthic responses to contamination, which is probably due to the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the estuary. To reduce the problems due the heterogeneity and variability observed to date in the available results, it will be necessary to encourage integrated estuarine studies, in which sedimentologists, chemists, and biologists work together on the same campaigns at the same sites.     

Surface/groundwater interactions in the Bani and Nakambe rivers,tributaries of the Niger and Volta basins,West Africa

Abstract

The upper Niger and Volta rivers exhibit a great and highly contrasting variability of inter-annual runoff. The Bani River, the largest tributary to the Niger River in Mali, shows a dramatic decrease in runoff after the 1970s, with the result that many boreholes in the region have dried up since the drought began. In contrast, the Nakambe River (Upper Volta basin, in Burkina Faso) shows an increase in runoff for the same period, leading to unexpected flood peaks that damaged infrastructures. The contribution that the groundwater and its variability make to surface runoff variability is assessed in this study by comparing the data of the national groundwater monitoring networks of Mali and Burkina Faso to surface runoff. Several variables are compared at the basin scale: the date of the maximum level of the water table, the annual rainfall, discharge, low flows and depletion coefficients. Variability in the low flows of the Bani River is well correlated to a decrease in the water table. Since 1970, the greater decrease in runoff in comparison to the rainfall decrease is due to a reduction in the baseflow, related to the cumulated rainfall deficit. Concerning the Nakambe River, the runoff increase is not supported by a water table increase, but is due to the increase in runoff coefficient related to land degradation.     

Effects of sea-level rise on ground water flow in a coastal aquifer system

The effects of sea-level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density-dependent, three-dimensional numerical ground water flow model for a simplified hypothetical fresh water lens that is similar to shallow, coastal aquifers found along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Simulations of sea-level rise of 2.65 mm/year from 1929 to 2050 resulted in an increase in water levels relative to a fixed datum, yet a net decrease in water levels relative to the increased sea-level position. The net decrease in water levels was much greater near a gaining stream than farther from the stream. The difference in the change in water levels is attributed to the dampening effect of the stream on water level changes in response to sea-level rise. In response to the decreased water level altitudes relative to local sea level, the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface decreased. This reduction in the thickness of the fresh water lens varied throughout the aquifer and was greatly affected by proximity to a ground water fed stream and whether the stream was tidally influenced. Away from the stream, the thickness of the fresh water lens decreased by about 2% from 1929 to 2050, whereas the fresh water lens thickness decreased by about 22% to 31% for the same period near the stream, depending on whether the stream was tidally influenced. The difference in the change in the fresh water/salt water interface position is controlled by the difference in the net decline in water levels relative to local sea level.     

Seasonal to decadal forcing of high water level percentiles in the German Bight throughout the last century

For the purpose of coastal planning and management, especially under changing climatic conditions, enhanced knowledge about the evolution of extreme sea levels in the past, present, and future is required. This paper presents statistical analyses of high seasonal water level percentiles of 13 tide gauges in the German Bight, spanning over a period of up to 109 years throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Seasonal and annual high percentile time series of water levels were investigated in comparison to the mean sea level (MSL) for changes on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal timescales. While throughout the first half of the twentieth century extreme water levels generally followed changes in MSL, during the second half of the century, linear extreme sea level trends exceeded those in MSL in the order of 9–64 cm per century. The largest, although insignificant, contribution to the magnitude of these trends occurs in the winter season (January to March), while smaller but, due to the generally lower atmospheric variability, significant changes are observed during spring (April to June). The observed multi-decadal trends are generally in good agreement with multi-decadal trends in the corresponding percentiles of local zonal surface winds. Only small parts of the trends remain unexplained. It is suggested that these remaining trends result from modifications in the local tidal regime. For the aspects of coastal planning, the findings clarify that in the German Bight, in addition to changes in MSL, potential changes in storminess and in the tidal regime significantly contribute to the development of extreme water levels. Since these factors have influenced the characteristic of extremes throughout the recent past, they also have to be taken into account when estimating design water levels for, e.g., dikes (in a warming climate) under changing greenhouse gas emissions.     

Sensitivity of runoff and soil erosion to climate change in two Mediterranean watersheds. Part II: assessing impacts from changes in storm rainfall,soil moisture and vegetation cover

The impacts of climate change on storm runoff and erosion in Mediterranean watersheds are difficult to assess due to the expected increase in storm frequency coupled with a decrease in total rainfall and soil moisture, added to positive or negative changes to different types of vegetation cover. This report, the second part of a two‐part article, addresses this issue by analysing the sensitivity of runoff and erosion to incremental degrees of change (from ? 20 to + 20%) to storm rainfall, pre‐storm soil moisture, and vegetation cover, in two Mediterranean watersheds, using the MEFIDIS model. The main results point to the high sensitivity of storm runoff and peak runoff rates to changes in storm rainfall (2·2% per 1% change) and, to a lesser degree, to soil water content (?1·2% per 1% change). Catchment sediment yield shows a greater sensitivity than within‐watershed erosion rates to both parameters: 7·8 versus 4·0% per 1% change for storm rainfall, and ? 4·9 versus ? 2·3% per 1% change for soil water content, indicating an increase in sensitivity with spatial scale due to changes to sediment connectivity within the catchment. Runoff and erosion showed a relatively low sensitivity to changes in vegetation cover. Finally, the shallow soils in one of the catchments led to a greater sensitivity to changes in storm rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, the results indicate that decreasing soil moisture levels caused by climate change could be sufficient to offset the impact of greater storm intensity in Mediterranean watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

K-means cluster analysis and seismicity partitioning for Pakistan

Pakistan and the western Himalaya is a region of high seismic activity located at the triple junction between the Arabian, Eurasian and Indian plates. Four devastating earthquakes have resulted in significant numbers of fatalities in Pakistan and the surrounding region in the past century (Quetta, 1935; Makran, 1945; Pattan, 1974 and the recent 2005 Kashmir earthquake). It is therefore necessary to develop an understanding of the spatial distribution of seismicity and the potential seismogenic sources across the region. This forms an important basis for the calculation of seismic hazard; a crucial input in seismic design codes needed to begin to effectively mitigate the high earthquake risk in Pakistan. The development of seismogenic source zones for seismic hazard analysis is driven by both geological and seismotectonic inputs. Despite the many developments in seismic hazard in recent decades, the manner in which seismotectonic information feeds the definition of the seismic source can, in many parts of the world including Pakistan and the surrounding regions, remain a subjective process driven primarily by expert judgment. Whilst much research is ongoing to map and characterise active faults in Pakistan, knowledge of the seismogenic properties of the active faults is still incomplete in much of the region. Consequently, seismicity, both historical and instrumental, remains a primary guide to the seismogenic sources of Pakistan. This study utilises a cluster analysis approach for the purposes of identifying spatial differences in seismicity, which can be utilised to form a basis for delineating seismogenic source regions. An effort is made to examine seismicity partitioning for Pakistan with respect to earthquake database, seismic cluster analysis and seismic partitions in a seismic hazard context. A magnitude homogenous earthquake catalogue has been compiled using various available earthquake data. The earthquake catalogue covers a time span from 1930 to 2007 and an area from 23.00° to 39.00°N and 59.00° to 80.00°E. A threshold magnitude of 5.2 is considered for K-means cluster analysis. The current study uses the traditional metrics of cluster quality, in addition to a seismic hazard contextual metric to attempt to constrain the preferred number of clusters found in the data. The spatial distribution of earthquakes from the catalogue was used to define the seismic clusters for Pakistan, which can be used further in the process of defining seismogenic sources and corresponding earthquake recurrence models for estimates of seismic hazard and risk in Pakistan. Consideration of the different approaches to cluster validation in a seismic hazard context suggests that Pakistan may be divided into K?=?19 seismic clusters, including some portions of the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India.     

On the accuracy of simplified methods for the analysis of isolated bridges

To foster the use of seismic isolation in structures, existing guidelines strive to formulate design methods which are simple and accessible to non‐specialized engineers. On the other hand, not all of the simplifying provisions adopted by the norms can be said to have been adequately tested to provide a consistent level of accuracy. The study attempts, in particular, to elucidate three aspects related to the methods of analysis for linear or linearized isolated bridges on which little or no advice can be found in the norms. The first one is about the way one has to account for the fact that damping matrices of isolated bridges are never of proportional type. The present study demonstrates, through a number of typical applications, that classical modal analysis, using real modes and the diagonal terms of the modal damping matrices, still provide a fully acceptable approximation. The second and third aspects are related to the use of linearization expressions extended to the analysis of hyperstatic bridges. Parametric analyses conducted in the study show that none of the formulas in current use gives satisfactory results for both the displacement and the force responses, a requirement for a reliable design of an isolated bridge. How to use the equivalent linear parameters, and in particular the isolators equivalent damping ratios, in the context of a modal analysis, is treated next. This problem is seldom if ever mentioned in the norms where at most a formula is given for constructing modal damping ratios based on the damping ratios of the isolators. A rational, approximate procedure is discussed in this paper, applicable to all types of structures with non‐proportional damping, which in the case of bridges can be shown to reduce to the expression provided in the Japanese bridge design guidelines. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震空区的定量判据

在中国，孕震空间已经比较广泛地应用于地震预报的实践，并多次取得实际预测强震的效果。但经过系统震例研究发现，利用孕震空间预报地震的虚报漏报率比较高。本文运用解决临界相变问题的重正化群方法所求出的孕震空间区可能发生失稳破裂，导致强震发生的判据对孕震空间的危险性作出进一步鉴别，并用突变论方法求解尖拐空变方程，预测孕震空区未来发生强震的时间和震级，并进一步确定孕震空区的危险性。对２６个中国大陆强有的孕震空     

中国东北地区SKS分裂的上地幔各向异性结构与动力学

本研究收集了中国东北地区2008—2016年九年时间内207个固定地震台站和127个NECESSArray流动地震台站的波形资料,利用SKS波分裂的最小切向能量网格搜索方法获得了243个台站的有效分裂结果.研究结果显示,尽管研究区各向异性快波方向基本以NW-SE向为主,但无论是在快波方向上还是快慢波时间延迟上不同构造单元内部与不同构造单元之间均存在着较大差别.大兴安岭造山带北部的各向异性快波方向自北向南由NNE-SSW向转变为NNW-SSE向,在中部以NW-SE向为主,而南部自北而南由NE-SW向逐渐转变为近E-W向;松辽盆地的各向异性快波方向在北部自西向东主要表现为由NNW-SSE向逐渐转变为NW-SE向,在中部自西向东由NE-SW向转变为近E-W向,而在南部既有NE-SW向又有NW-SE向;佳木斯地块各向异性方向由西部的NW-SE转变为东部的NNW-SSE,同时快慢波时间延迟逐渐变大;长白山造山带北部自北向南由NW-SE向逐渐转变为近E-W向,中部各向异性快波方向为NNW-SSE向,且快慢波时间延迟较大,而南部以NW-SE向为主;燕山造山带的各向异性快波方向主要沿E-W向分布,基本平行于燕山造山带的走向.这些结果说明,尽管复杂的各向异性快波方向与局部岩石圈拆沉和热物质上涌有关,但更重要是与"大地幔楔"中物质水平流等动力过程密切相关,也有待将来结合更多地震资料如面波不同深度的特征各向异性进行分析.在阿巴嘎火山群、哈拉哈火山群、长白山火山、龙岗火山和镜泊湖火山区及五大连池火山区等特殊构造区的周边地区,各向异性快波方向围绕这些构造区随方位均发生明显变化,暗示了火山区下方热物质上涌可能影响了"大地幔楔"中的软流圈物质水平流方向.     

Analysis of change of red tide species in Yodo River estuary by the numerical ecosystem model

Occurrence number of red tides in Osaka Bay in Japan is more than 20 cases every year. Diatom red tide was dominant in Osaka Bay, but the non-diatom red tide was dominant in early 1990s. Therefore, the material cycling in Yodo River estuary in Osaka Bay during August from 1991 to 2000 was analyzed by using the numerical ecosystem model and field observation data to clarify the reasons of change in red tide species. Year-to-year variation in calculated concentration ratio of diatom to non-diatom corresponds to the variation in observed ratio of red tide days of diatom to non-diatom. Limiting nutrient of primary production is phosphate over the period. Diatom dominated from 1991 to 1993, but it was difficult for non-diatom to grow due to the limitation by physical condition. Non-diatom was able to grow because of good physical and nutrient conditions from 1994 to 1996. And diatom dominated again under the good physical condition, and phosphorus supply was not enough for non-diatom to grow from 1998 to 2000. Phosphate concentration in the lower layer of Yodo River estuary was important to the variation in red tide species in the upper layer of Yodo River estuary.     

中国地震地下流体监测系统的现状与展望

本文对我国地震地下流体监测系统的观测台网、观测项目、观测仪器、观测效能等的现状作了较详尽的论述，明确指出地下流体所观测的前兆信息十分丰富，映震灵敏，预报效能好，在地震预报和为国民经济服务中有很大潜力，同时也探讨了我国地震地下流体监测系统中存在的主要问题，提出了解决的办法，对今后的发展方向进行了展望。文中提出建立多层次的地下流体监测体系，加强地下流体综合观测，强化地下流体观测网的科学性，优化观测项目，逐步实现观测技术现代化，特别强调要大力开展基础理论研究与国际合作，不断提高我国地震地下流体监测预报的研究水平。     

1950s以来洪湖主要优势沉水植物群落变化

通过野外调查并结合历史数据对洪湖沉水植被进行长时间序列变化研究,构建自1950s以来洪湖主要优势沉水植物群落穗状狐尾藻(Myriophyllum spicatum)、微齿眼子菜(Potamogeton maackianus)、金鱼藻(Ceratophyllum demersum)和轮叶黑藻(Hydrilla verticillata)的群落分布图并计算其面积.结果表明:穗状狐尾藻群落面积从1950s占全湖的6%增加至1990s的65%,而后急剧下降至2010年的2%,然后又恢复至2014年的15%;微齿眼子菜群落面积从1950s的10%增至1990s的65%,然后下降至2014年的38%;金鱼藻群落面积从1980s的6%增至1990s的39%,2010年以后则稳定在25%;轮叶黑藻群落面积1950s占全湖的32%,随后急剧下降至1980s的6%,2000年以后逐步增加,至2014年为15%.1950s1990s,穗状狐尾藻、微齿眼子菜和金鱼藻群落分布范围从周边向湖心扩展,而轮叶黑藻群落从湖中心消失;2000年以后洪湖沉水植物群落分布破碎化明显.分析认为,1950s 1990s的围垦和水文过程变化,1990s 2005年的围网养殖、水生植物过度利用以及由此导致的水质恶化等,以及2006年至今开展的拆围和生态修复是导致这些变化的主要因素.建议取缔围网,控制入湖水质,提高水体透明度,促进水生植被恢复,但同时增加水位变幅,促进植物资源合理利用,避免沼泽化重演.     

Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity.It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate.The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.     

Channel pattern of proglacial rivers: topographic forcing due to glacier retreat

Glacier retreat leads to changes in channel pattern during deglaciation, in response to changing water, sediment and base level controls. Recent ongoing retreat at Skaftafellsjökull, Iceland (c. 50 m per year since 1998) has resulted in the formation of a sequence of river terraces, and several changes in river channel pattern. This paper compares widely used models of river channel pattern against the changes observed at Skaftafellsjökull. Doing this reveals the role of topographic forcing in determining proglacial channel pattern, whilst examining the predictive power and limitations of the various approaches to classifying river channels. Topography was found to play a large role in determining channel pattern in proglacial environments for two reasons: firstly, glacier retreat forces rivers to flow through confined moraine reaches. In these reaches, channels which theory predicts should be braided are forced to adopt a single channel. Secondly, proximal incision of proglacial rivers, accompanied by downstream aggradation, leads to changes in slope which force the river to cross channel pattern thresholds. The findings of this work indicate that in the short term, the majority of channel pattern change in proglacial rivers is due to topographic forcing, and that changes due to changing hydrology and sediment supply are initially relatively minor, although likely to increase in significance as deglaciation progresses. These findings have implications for palaeohydraulic studies, where changes in proglacial channel pattern are frequently interpreted as being due to changes in water or sediment supply. This paper shows that channel pattern can change at timescales faster than hydrological or sediment budget changes usually occur, in association with relatively minor changes in glacier mass balance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CT在新型冠状病毒肺炎诊断与鉴别诊断中的应用价值

新型冠状病毒肺炎已在全世界多个国家暴发,如何提升早期筛查率成为疫情防控的重点。计算机断层扫描（CT）在中国新冠肺炎的早期筛查及疾病监测中发挥了重要作用,因此,提升广大影像医生对肺炎诊断的准确性尤其重要。本文旨在述评CT在新冠肺炎筛查中的应用价值、诊断及鉴别诊断要点,比较新冠肺炎与其他病毒性肺炎、细菌性肺炎等的CT表现差别,以期在今后的疫情防控中CT可以发挥更好的作用,帮助即早发现并隔离病患。