提高台站短水准则量成果精度的几项措施

结合清原地震台台站水准1985年前后观测成果精度的变化，总结了提高台站短水准观测成果精度的几点主要成功措施。它们是：选择最佳视线长度；拓宽线路、增高视线、减弱折光影响；改造仪器站条件；固定观测时间和人员；确定好观测光段。     

用于速度自动拾取的路径积分优化法与光顺处理技术

将用于图像处理的光顺技术引用到速度谱能量团曲面的处理环节,借以提高速度谱的分辨率,为最终获得高精确解提供一全新的途径.具体思路是基于路径积分优化法--Viterbi算法所具有的自动搜寻及获取最优解的功能,将其应用于地震资料处理中的速度自动拾取,使其向前做最大"能量团"的积分向后递归计算最优解--叠加速度,但这种解的准确性往往与所定义的目标函数--速度谱的分辨率有关.演算结果表明,Viterbi算法与关顺处理技术的有机结合,不仅提高了速度提取的精度,而且实现了速度的自动拾取,可提高常规地震资料处理的效率,从而可快捷地为叠前深度偏移提供所需初始速度模型.     

Data use and information creation: challenges for marine scientists and for managers

In the coastal waters of European countries and in the offshore waters of the north-east Atlantic, there is an increasing need for scientists to meet challenging objectives, such as to identify meaningful measures of 'quality', and to recommend 'indicators' to underpin implementation of directives, conventions, statutes and other more informal national and international initiatives. Those indicators may relate to particular species or habitats, to changes in physical and chemical characteristics, and even to the use to which the system is put. The problems to be overcome are difficult, but new and developing approaches will make a significant contribution. The approaches include: criteria to identify 'sensitivity' and 'importance', structures to organise information and electronic information resources to access data.The real challenge is to make the results of the various scientific initiatives relevant to and understandable by a wide range of customers with similar overlapping requirements, and thus make a genuine contribution to protecting the marine environment. Above and beyond that is the need for scientists to drive the agenda to enable real and lasting progress to be made towards ecosystem-based management of our seas and a proper consideration of what 'sustainability' may mean in the marine environment and how we utilise its resources.     

地震空区的定量判据

在中国，孕震空间已经比较广泛地应用于地震预报的实践，并多次取得实际预测强震的效果。但经过系统震例研究发现，利用孕震空间预报地震的虚报漏报率比较高。本文运用解决临界相变问题的重正化群方法所求出的孕震空间区可能发生失稳破裂，导致强震发生的判据对孕震空间的危险性作出进一步鉴别，并用突变论方法求解尖拐空变方程，预测孕震空区未来发生强震的时间和震级，并进一步确定孕震空区的危险性。对２６个中国大陆强有的孕震空     

Joint simulation of transmissivity and storativity fields conditional to steady-state and transient hydraulic head data

The self-calibrated method has been extended for the generation of equally likely realizations of transmissivity and storativity conditional to transmissivity and storativity data and to steady-state and transient hydraulic head data. Conditioning to transmissivity and storativity data is achieved by means of standard geostatistical co-simulation algorithms, whereas conditioning to hydraulic head data, given its non-linear relation to transmissivity and storativity, is achieved through non-linear optimization, similar to standard inverse algorithms. The algorithm is demonstrated in a synthetic study based on data from the WIPP site in New Mexico. Seven alternative scenarios are investigated, generating 100 realizations for each of them. The differences among the scenarios range from the number of conditioning data, to their spatial configuration, to the pumping strategies at the pumping wells. In all scenarios, the self-calibrated algorithm is able to generate transmissivity–storativity realization couples conditional to all the sample data. For the specific case studied here the results are not surprising. Of the piezometric head data, the steady-state values are the most consequential for transmissivity characterization. Conditioning to transient head data only introduces local adjustments on the transmissivity fields and serves to improve the characterization of the storativity fields.     

A note on the deflection of a baroclinic current by a continental shelf

The deflection, at a step-shelf fronted coast, of a constant potential vorticity current in a reduced-gravity, inviscid model ocean is studied theoretically. The step shelf, with a depth smaller than the reservoir depth, forces the uplifting of the approaching current and causes water column foreshortening, leading to relative vorticity generation that enhances current deflection to the right (facing the coast). As a consequence, in comparison to the case of a vertical wall coast, the proportion of the transport to the right is increased. For normal incidence for a shelf-depth/reservoir-depth ratio of 0.3 and shelf width to deformation radius ratio of 1.5, more than 90% of the approaching current transport goes to the right and less than 10% to the left. In addition, the (barotropic) dynamic pressure at the coast is low to the right and high to the left (with the highest pressure at the stagnation point). In the vertical wall case, the wall pressures on the flank are equal. For oblique incidence from the left, the deflection to the left is drastically reduced. In fact, there is practically no steady-state flow diverted to the left (less than 2%) when the approach angle is greater than 60° to the left of normal. In the vertical wall case, the same angle would have to be 90° for the flow to the left to vanish, namely only when the approach current is parallel to the coast to the right.     

Seasonal variations in coastal debris on Awaji Island, Japan

The subject of our study was Awaji Island, an island located in the west of Japan that is surrounded by sea and that has serious problems relating to coastal debris. We conducted a long-term investigation focusing on three beaches and evaluated the results. The study was designed to develop an understanding of the actual situation, to inform local citizens, and raise their concerns about the problem of debris with a view to taking action against it. We obtained the following results: the amount, type, and ratio of debris changed according to weather and ocean conditions; debris also differs according to geographical conditions; social and economic activities of the surrounding area influence the type of debris encountered. Following this study, we have continued our investigation, and are continuing to gather data. At the same time, it is important to spread our ideas and enlighten people so as to encourage them not to dump debris. We hope that these actions manage to raise the level of consciousness among local citizens and to expand their anti-debris activities.     

Application of geostatistical simulation to compile seismotectonic provinces based on earthquake databases (case study: Iran)

This article is devoted to application of a simulation algorithm based on geostatistical methods to compile and update seismotectonic provinces in which Iran has been chosen as a case study. Traditionally, tectonic maps together with seismological data and information (e.g., earthquake catalogues, earthquake mechanism, and microseismic data) have been used to update seismotectonic provinces. In many cases, incomplete earthquake catalogues are one of the important challenges in this procedure. To overcome this problem, a geostatistical simulation algorithm, turning band simulation, TBSIM, was applied to make a synthetic data to improve incomplete earthquake catalogues. Then, the synthetic data was added to the traditional information to study the seismicity homogeneity and classify the areas according to tectonic and seismic properties to update seismotectonic provinces. In this paper, (i) different magnitude types in the studied catalogues have been homogenized to moment magnitude (M_w), and earthquake declustering was then carried out to remove aftershocks and foreshocks; (ii) time normalization method was introduced to decrease the uncertainty in a temporal domain prior to start the simulation procedure; (iii) variography has been carried out in each subregion to study spatial regressions (e.g., west-southwestern area showed a spatial regression from 0.4 to 1.4 decimal degrees; the maximum range identified in the azimuth of 135?±?10); (iv) TBSIM algorithm was then applied to make simulated events which gave rise to make 68,800 synthetic events according to the spatial regression found in several directions; (v) simulated events (i.e., magnitudes) were classified based on their intensity in ArcGIS packages and homogenous seismic zones have been determined. Finally, according to the synthetic data, tectonic features, and actual earthquake catalogues, 17 seismotectonic provinces were introduced in four major classes introduced as very high, high, moderate, and low seismic potential provinces. Seismotectonic properties of very high seismic potential provinces have been also presented.     

Airborne sensors for detecting large marine debris at sea

The human eye is an excellent, general-purpose airborne sensor for detecting marine debris larger than 10 cm on or near the surface of the water. Coupled with the human brain, it can adjust for light conditions and sea-surface roughness, track persistence, differentiate color and texture, detect change in movement, and combine all of the available information to detect and identify marine debris. Matching this performance with computers and sensors is difficult at best. However, there are distinct advantages over the human eye and brain that sensors and computers can offer such as the ability to use finer spectral resolution, to work outside the spectral range of human vision, to control the illumination, to process the information in ways unavailable to the human vision system, to provide a more objective and reproducible result, to operate from unmanned aircraft, and to provide a permanent record that can be used for later analysis.     

Sensitivity of runoff and soil erosion to climate change in two Mediterranean watersheds. Part II: assessing impacts from changes in storm rainfall,soil moisture and vegetation cover

The impacts of climate change on storm runoff and erosion in Mediterranean watersheds are difficult to assess due to the expected increase in storm frequency coupled with a decrease in total rainfall and soil moisture, added to positive or negative changes to different types of vegetation cover. This report, the second part of a two‐part article, addresses this issue by analysing the sensitivity of runoff and erosion to incremental degrees of change (from ? 20 to + 20%) to storm rainfall, pre‐storm soil moisture, and vegetation cover, in two Mediterranean watersheds, using the MEFIDIS model. The main results point to the high sensitivity of storm runoff and peak runoff rates to changes in storm rainfall (2·2% per 1% change) and, to a lesser degree, to soil water content (?1·2% per 1% change). Catchment sediment yield shows a greater sensitivity than within‐watershed erosion rates to both parameters: 7·8 versus 4·0% per 1% change for storm rainfall, and ? 4·9 versus ? 2·3% per 1% change for soil water content, indicating an increase in sensitivity with spatial scale due to changes to sediment connectivity within the catchment. Runoff and erosion showed a relatively low sensitivity to changes in vegetation cover. Finally, the shallow soils in one of the catchments led to a greater sensitivity to changes in storm rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, the results indicate that decreasing soil moisture levels caused by climate change could be sufficient to offset the impact of greater storm intensity in Mediterranean watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity analysis of two-dimensional steady-state aquifer flow equations. Implications for groundwater flow model calibration and validation

This paper presents the analytical properties of the sensitivity of the two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater flow equation to the flow parameters and to the boundary conditions, based on the perturbation approach. These analytical properties are used to provide guidelines for model design, model calibration and monitoring network design. The sensitivity patterns are shown to depend on the nature of both the perturbed parameter and the variable investigated. Indeed, the sensitivity of the hydraulic head to the hydraulic conductivity extends mainly in the flow direction, while the sensitivity to the recharge spreads radially. Besides, the sensitivity of the flow longitudinal velocity to the hydraulic conductivity propagates in both the longitudinal and transverse directions, whereas the sensitivity of the flow transverse velocity propagates in the diagonal directions to the flow. The analytical results are confirmed by application examples on idealized and real-world simulations. These analytical findings allow some general rules to be established for model design, model calibration and monitoring network design. In particular, the optimal location of measurement points depends on the nature of the variable of interest. Measurement network design thus proves to be problem-dependent. Moreover, adequate monitoring well network design may allow to discriminate between the possible sources of error.     

Death, Disease and Deformity; Using Outbreaks in Animals as Sentinels for Emerging Environmental Health Risks

In "Airs, Waters and Places, " Hippocrates taught aspiring physicians that, to understand their patient's illness, they needed to understand their patient's environment. He recognized that people's well-being was linked to their environment. Hippocrates instructed his readers to use observations of the seasons, the water and the orientation of a city to classify the major health problems of the inhabitants. While his causal framework for explaining the pathogenesis of disease may seem rudimentary and misguided in light of today's medical understanding, Hippocrates knew that many health problems arose from our interactions with the environment and he tried to do what we continue to want to do today: to predict the occurrence of disease in order to better care for his patients.     

基于第二代小波自适应网格的二维声波方程波传模拟

本文利用第二代小波多尺度分解和快速变换的特点,构造自适应计算网格.对初始计算网格上的数值解进行第二代小波变换,得到数值解对应的小波系数空间.小波系数的大小表示相邻网格上数值变化率,小波系数大的区域网格点上的数值解变化梯度大.当小波系数大于等于预设的阈值时,在小波系数对应的网格点周围插入新的计算网格点,通过阈值可以实现网格的细化,得到多尺度下层层嵌套的细化自适应网格;由有限差分法得到相应网格点的空间导数.比较数值算例得到的波场快照和计算时间,验证了该方法的有效性.     

3D Inversion of magnetic data of grouped anomalies — Study applied to São José intrusions in Mato Grosso,Brazil

The southwest border of the Parecis Basin (central Brazil) presents several occurrences of gold, copper and zinc. Parallel to this border, there is an alignment of magnetic anomalies with varied size and polarities. In particular, five magnetic anomalies are referred to, in this study, as SJ1 to SJ5. The proximity of these anomalies to each other makes it hard to isolate the magnetic component associated with each source. Furthermore, these anomalies have different magnetization directions, which require the use of a technique which is slightly or not affected by the presence of a remanent magnetization, as the amplitude of the anomalous magnetic field. Considering that, in these intrusions no outcrops are observed, the enhanced horizontal derivative technique was used to estimate the edges location and the depth of these sources. The geological context, allied to the results from the magnetic techniques, allowed to establish binds to restrain the interpretation of the results of the 3D inversion. This procedure permitted to compose three hypothesis to explain the magnetic behavior of the region, from which can be conclusively determined with a borehole analysis.     

Zircon U–Pb ages from tuff beds of the upper Mesozoic Tetori Group in the Shokawa district,Gifu Prefecture,central Japan†

Abstract The upper Mesozoic Tetori Group contains numerous fossils of plants and marine and non‐marine animals. The group has the potential to provide key information to improve our understanding of the Middle Jurassic to Early Cretaceous biota of East Asia. However, the depositional age of the Tetori Group remains uncertain, and without good age constraints, accurate correlation with other areas is very difficult. As a first step in obtaining reliable ages for the formations within the Tetori Group, we used laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry to measure the U–Pb ages of zircons collected from tuff beds in the Shokawa district, Takayama City, Gifu Prefecture, central Japan. The youngest reliable U–Pb ages from the tuff beds of the Ushimaru, Mitarai and Okurodani Formations are 130.2 ± 1.7, 129.8 ± 1.0 and 117.5 ± 0.7 Ma, respectively (errors represent 2 SE). These results indicate that the entire Tetori Group in the Shokawa district, which was previously believed to be correlated to the Upper Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous, is in fact correlated to the Lower Cretaceous. The maximum ages of the Ushimaru, Mitarai and Okurodani Formations are late Hauterivian to Barremian, late Hauterivian to Barremian and Barremian to Aptian, respectively.     

地震预报唯象模型的适用性研究

滑动可预报模型，时间可预报模型和双限随机应力水平模型是三种相关的地震预报唯象模型。对于一个指定地区，用哪种模型更合理呢？为解决这个问题，本文提出了两地震预报模式适用程度的数值分析方法，利用这些方法可以合理地鉴别出氖要用的地震预报唯象模型是否适用于指定地区的地震预报分析。     

Ospar 98/3: an environmental turning point or a flawed decision?

While the problems of over-fishing and eutrophication continue largely unchecked, the Ospar Commission, which exists to improve the quality of European seas, requires governments, the public and the oil companies to find 20 billion Pounds to remove millions of tons of steel to demonstrate its commitment to the mantra that 'the seas are not dustbins'. The decision, taken in 1998, was made despite a paucity of evidence to identify the environmental impact redundant rigs create, despite the absence of scientific support to demonstrate that removal is the best practicable environmental option and in the knowledge that the decision had more to do with a green anti-oil agenda than with improving marine quality. It may be shown in the fullness of time not to be in the best interests of the environment. Moreover, and perhaps more importantly, the manner in which the decision was made is lacking in important respects.     

Aerial application of dispersants in Bantry Bay following the Betelgeuse incident

For the first time during a significant oil spill, aircraft were used in preference to surface vessels to apply chemical dispersants, following the tragic accident to the French registered tanker in Bantry Bay, south-west Eire. In this particular case, with an ideally situated landing strip, close to the source of the spill of fresh crude oil, the response proved to be highly effective and prevented the vast majority of the oil lost after the 6th day from reaching the nearby shorelines. The ability of the pilot of the spray aircraft to rapidly locate and to select for treatment only those slicks or parts of slicks posing a significant threat also resulted in the minimum amount of dispersant being used to maximum effect.     

The three screen doors: can marine "protected" areas be effective?

The great majority of marine protected areas (MPAs) fail to meet their management objectives. So MPAs can be effective conservation tools, we recommend two paradigm shifts, the first related to how they are located and the second related to how they are managed. MPAs are unlikely to be effective if they are located in areas that are subject to numerous, and often uncontrollable, external stressors from atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic sources, all of which can degrade the environment and compromise protection. MPA effectiveness is also limited by low institutional and community capacity for management and inappropriate size with respect to ecological needs. In particular, the check list approach to management does not ensure that key threats are dealt with, or that management expenditures provide a quantifiable return. We recommend a business planning approach to MPA management, in which managers focus on the viability of the management system, i.e., the ability of the MPA to provide ecological goods and services to its target users over the long term.     

Thermal and isotopic evidence for surface and subsurface water contributions to baseflow in a high Arctic river

Seven longitudinal water temperature tow surveys were conducted to attempt to identify the location of surface and subsurface river water exchanges along the length of the West River at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory, Melville Island, Nunavut, Canada (74°55′ N, 109°35′ W). Water temperature data were collected using a calibrated thermistor with an accuracy of ±0.002 °C (resolution <0.00005 °C) along the river during July 2014 in conjunction with stable water isotope sampling to support the thermal data and to determine the extent of surface water mixing from different sources such as precipitation, snowmelt, and surface/subsurface water contributions to the river. Atmospheric conditions were found to be the main contributor to seasonal temperature variance in the river, whereas tributary inflows and residual channel snow also had important thermal effects to river temperatures. Residual channel snow was a sustained source of cold water during much of the 2014 summer season (June–August) and substantially offset downstream warming. The longitudinal temperature profiles indicate notable changes to the thermal state of the river, which are interpreted to be indicative of subsurface and surface water exchange through inputs of relatively cold or warm water. Broadly, surface inflows were found to provide warmer water relative to the West River, and contributed to downstream warming of the river, along with downstream enrichment of δD and δ¹⁸O. Subsurface inflows provided cooler water relative to the river, and contributed to downstream depletion of δD and δ¹⁸O and downstream cooling of river temperatures. These results demonstrate that localized changes in river temperature, in conjunction with isotopic tracers, can be used to track channel–slope water interactions in Arctic hydrological systems, work previously limited to alpine and temperate settings.