云南盈江M_S6.1地震前兆异常特征分析

通过对2014年5月30日盈江M_S6.1地震前距离震中450 km范围内所有前兆观测资料进行分析,提取震前异常,总结异常特征。研究结果表明:前兆异常在时间上具有阶段性特征,中、短期阶段,震前1年左右异常数量开始增加;短临阶段,震前1~2月异常数量增加、速率加大,同时有部分前兆趋势异常出现转折结束。前兆异常在空间上比较分散,但距离震中200 km范围内的异常数量比例比震中距200~450 km范围内的大。水温、流量、水氡、气汞测项的映震效果最好。     

2011年盈江5.8级地震热辐射亮温异常分析

使用从2010年1月12日至2012年1月11日,在(20°～30°N,93°～ 103°E)范围内由中国静止气象卫星FY-2E观测的热红外遥感亮温资料,对2011年3月10日盈江5.8级地震周边地区的热红外亮温异常特征进行了研究.结果表明:从2011年3月初开始在盈江5.8级地震震中周围开始出现相对能谱异常,之后异常区域逐渐扩大并向震中区域集中,并于3月中下旬在震中偏西地区形成片状异常区域,相对能谱最大异常幅度达13倍,随后异常区域和幅度逐渐减小,地震发生后数天异常消失.     

地震前兆模糊分维特征的研究

本文利用模糊分维公式计算了大同6.1级和5.8级地震前震中及附近地区前兆观测资料的模糊维数。结果表明,震前前兆观测资料的模糊维数明显下降,且震中位于降维最大的地区附近。唐山7.8级地震前,短水准观测资料也有类似的情况。     

地震前兆模糊分维特征的研究

本文利用模糊分维公式计算了大同6.1级和5.8级地震前震中及附近地区前兆观测资料的模糊维数。结果表明,震前前兆观测资料的模糊维数明显下降,且震中位于降维最大的地区附近。唐山7.8级地震前,短水准观测资料也有类似的情况。     

苍山5.2级地震异常群体时空演化特征

在对 1 995年山东省苍山 5 2级地震异常筛选的基础上 ,分析了异常群体阶段性演化过程。结果表明 ,震前 1 0a左右震中周围出现小震小区域综合断层面解主压应力P轴偏转 (约 3 0°) ,震前 7a左右震中附近 3～ 4级地震增强集中及应变释放加速 ;震前 4a左右转为异常平静 ;震前 1a左右震中外围开始出现形变类前兆异常 ,前兆异常台站比和异常台项比约达 6%及 4%左右 ,异常比例偏少 ;震前约半年起 ,以震中附近地震波速比异常出现为起点 ,相继出现各类前兆异常 6条 ,短期前兆异常台站比和异常台项比分别约达 2 5 %和 1 7%左右 ,显示孕震进入短期阶段 ,但临震异常不明显。对由此获得的 5级地震预测启示进行了讨论。     

马村站自512井水汞异常分析

2006年7月4日河北省文安县发生了ML5．5级地震,震前震中西南200km的石家庄马村站自512井水汞3月15日～5月15日出现了短期高值异常,6月3日出现了高值突跳异常。本文分析研究了文安地震前水汞的异常变化,以及1999年水汞观测以来的异常变化特征。分析认为,震前小马村水汞的异常变化幅度较大,异常特征明显,前兆意义显著。     

柯坪6.5级地震的部分前兆异常及预报

1991年2月25日柯坪6.5级地震前,震中附近地区的土层地应力、金属摆倾斜仪等多项前兆观测出现异常变化,说明强震发生前近场灵敏度较低的简陋仪器也能观测到明显的前兆反应。分析、认识这些异常对地震短临预报的决策是有益的。     

汶川地震与松潘地震前异常现象分析比较

分析了1976年松潘7.2级地震和2008年汶川8.0级地震前异常现象。汶川8.0级地震为地震活跃期的首发大地震,震前区域性中小地震相对平静,区域地震活动b值为0.77;松潘7.2级地震是活跃期间发生的地震,震中附近地区地震活动密集,曾发生松潘黄龙6.5级地震,震前区域地震活动b值为0.62;汶川地震前区域主压应力方位与错动类型总体上与8.0级地震给出的解大体一致,这与松潘7.2级地震前的情况有显著差异,震前地震与余震震型有差异。根据观测数据的分析和异常判定结果认为,松潘地震与汶川地震前的观测异常没有一个台项是重复出现的,短临异常数前者显著多于后者。松潘地震与汶川地震前的宏观异常现象差异极大,更未出现火球、地光临震异常现象。这说明,已有的短临前兆观测异常的出现仅有个案特征,而无普适意义。     

云南彝良“9?7地震”前异常特点

对2012年9月7日云南省昭通市彝良县洛泽河一带5.7、5.6级地震前地震活动和前兆异常分析,其地震活动特征、流体和形变动态变化及预测指标,发现：地震前4级地震活动水平增强、出现小震活动空区;前兆异常开始于震前1年左右;短期异常有由外围向震中迁移的现象;临震异常出现的时间较为集中,震前一周内。对该地区5.0级以上强震的预报和研究具有一定的指示意义。     

云南彝良“9·7地震’’前的异常及特点

通过对2012年9月7日云南省昭通市彝良县洛泽河一带5．7、5．6级地震前地震活动和前兆异常及地震活动特征、流体和形变动态变化和预测指标分析发现：地震前4级地震活动水平增强、出现小震活动空区;前兆异常开始于震前1年左右;短期异常有由外围向震中迁移的现象;临震异常出现的时间较为集中,在震前一周内。对该地区5．0级以上强震的预报和研究具有一定的指示意义。     

Changes in sediment transport in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China

In this paper, the changes in sediment transport over 51 years from 1955 to 2006 in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China are assessed. Key factors affecting sediment yield and sediment transport, such as precipitation depth, discharge, and human activities are studied. To investigate the changes in sediment yield in this watershed, a trend analysis on sediment concentration, precipitation depth, and discharge is conducted. Precipitation depths at 2 Climate Stations （CSs）, as well as discharge and sediment transport at 3 Gauging Stations （GSs） are used to assess the features of sediment transport in the Kuye River. The rtmoff modulus （defined as the annual average discharge per unit area, L/（s·km^2）） and the sediment transport modulus （defined as the annual suspended sediment transport per unit area, t/（yr km^2）） are introduced in this study to assess the changes in runoff and sediment yield for this watershed. The results show that the highest average monthly discharge during the study period in the Kuye River is 66.23 m^3/s in August with an average monthly sediment concentration of 88.9 kg/m^3. However, the highest average monthly sediment concentration during the study period in the Kuye River is 125.34 kg/m^3 and occurs in July, which has an average discharge of 42.6 m^3/s that is much less than the average monthly discharge in August. It is found that both the runoff modulus and sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS on the Kuye River has a clear downward trend. During the summer season from July to August, the sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS is much higher than those at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs on the Yellow River. The easily erodible loess in the Kuye River watershed and the sparse vegetation are responsible for the extremely high sediment yield from the Kuye River watershed. The analyses of the grain size distribution of suspended load in the Kuye River are presented. The average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Kuye River is largest in February and then decreases until June. In July, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load approaches another peak and decreases until September. Then, the median grain size of suspended load starts to increase until February of the following year. However, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Yellow River at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs is the smallest between early summer and late fall The median grain size in the Yellow River starts to increase in November and approaches the largest size in January.     

Variations in trace gas concentrations in different environments in India

Observations of trace gases (SO₂, NH₃, NO₂ and O₃) were made during the period 1981 to 1984 at 6 different locations representative of urban industrial, urban, nonurban, thermal power plant and marine environment. Diurnal variations of the trace gases were studied in an urban environment. Except in the urban industrial environment, the concentration of NH₃ was found in the range of background values. Also, the average concentrations of NO₂ and O₃ at the different environments were in the order of background values. However, the concentrations of SO₂ were substantially higher by about 7 times, in urban industrial and thermal power plant environments. The diurnal variations of SO₂, NH₃ and NO₂ showed anitphase relationship with surface temperature at the urban environment station which is relatively free of industrial pollution. Discussion is centred on trace gas variations in different environments in India together with the values reported for various countries in the world.     

Applied volcanology in geothermal exploration in Iceland

In an active spreading area like Iceland, where the regional geothermal gradient is in the range 50–150°C/km, it is normally not a problem to find high enough temperature with deep drilling, but the difficulties arise with finding permeable layers at depth within the strata. Various volcanological methods can be applied in the search for aquifers and geothermal reservoir rocks. The flow pattern (as deduced from deuterium studies) indicates that the thermal water flows preferentially along high porosity stratiform horizons and dyke swarms from the recharge areas in the highlands to the hot spring areas in the lowlands. The primary porosity of the volcanic strata is dependent on the chemical composition and the mode of eruption of the volcanic units. Both the reservoir rocks and the flow channels forming the geothermal plumbing system are thought to vary from the Tertiary to the Quaternary provinces due to environmental conditions at the eruptive sites.     

TritiogenicHe in groundwater in Takaoka

³He/⁴He ratios up to 3.5 times the ratio of atmospheric He were found in groundwater samples. The³He enrichment can be attributed to radiogenic³He produced by in-situ beta-decay of³H. This shows that tritiogenic³He is accumulating in confined waters. From tritiogenic³He and³H concentrations, ages of groundwaters can be calculated. Detection of tritiogenic³He gives a tool to trace a tritium contamination which occurred in the past and cannot be assessed only by the³H counting method.     

2008年云南地震灾害概况

列出了2008年云南省破坏性地震目录.在此基础上,结合云南省地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结了2008年云南地震灾害的主要数据和特性.最后列出1990～2008年云南地震灾害的相应数据,并进行了简要对比.     

2007年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

在列出2007年中国5级以上地震目录的基础上,结合有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结出2007年中国大陆地震灾害的主要数据和特性。最后列出1990—2007年中国大陆地震灾害的相应数据,并进行了简要的比较。     

Projected changes in flood indices in selected catchments in Poland in the 21st century

The aim of this study is to estimate likely changes in flood indices under a future climate and to assess the uncertainty in these estimates for selected catchments in Poland. Precipitation and temperature time series from climate simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative for the periods 1971–2000, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios have been used to produce hydrological simulations based on the HBV hydrological model. As the climate model outputs for Poland are highly biased, post processing in the form of bias correction was first performed so that the climate time series could be applied in hydrological simulations at a catchment-scale. The results indicate that bias correction significantly improves flow simulations and estimated flood indices based on comparisons with simulations from observed climate data for the control period. The estimated changes in the mean annual flood and in flood quantiles under a future climate indicate a large spread in the estimates both within and between the catchments. An ANOVA analysis was used to assess the relative contributions of the 2 emission scenarios, the 7 climate models and the 4 bias correction methods to the total spread in the projected changes in extreme river flow indices for each catchment. The analysis indicates that the differences between climate models generally make the largest contribution to the spread in the ensemble of the three factors considered. The results for bias corrected data show small differences between the four bias correction methods considered, and, in contrast with the results for uncorrected simulations, project increases in flood indices for most catchments under a future climate.     

Advances in ground motion studies in China

This paper briefly summarizes the works in the processing of strong ground motion data, the factors affecting strong ground motion, the modeling of strong ground motion and the calculating of broad-band response spectrum which have been done recent years by engineering seismologists and seismologists of China. In addition, we think back to the international cooperation in strong ground motion of the recent years and make some expectations for the future.     

冬季亚洲中强震与夏季我国东部主雨带的准同纬性

根据1954～2003年50年亚洲中强震与我国地温资料，分析了冬季震中纬度—震涡中心纬度—冬季我国东部强地热涡中心纬度—夏季我国东部主雨带纬度4者之间的相互关系，发现冬季中强震与夏季主雨带之间具有较好的准同纬性. 这是每年汛期降水预报的一个指标. 文中也讨论了应用此预报指标时的一些特例.