我国地震地下流体前兆台站现状的调查与分析

系统介绍了我国地震地下流体前兆台站的产权与管理权关系,观测点的井泉类型、观测井深度,观测层类型与地下水物理化学特征,观测项目及仪器类型与运行现状,井房及其供电与通讯条件,观测人员的学历与专业结构、年龄与工龄结构等,为“十五”台站优化与建设方案的制定提供依据。     

Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (I)

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西北地区典型遗址土动模量与阻尼比特性试验研究

通过室内动三轴试验,研究了西北地区遗址土体的动本构关系,得到了模型参数,分析了遗址土体的动剪模量比和阻尼比的特性,并通过归一化处理得出模型参数,结果表明:遗址土体符合Hardin-Dinevich双曲线模型,其相关系数均大于0.991 7,模型参数a、b与土样密度不存在相关性;在相同荷载下,密度越大,动应变和动残余应变越小,其中陕西定边陡沟子明长城墙体土承受动荷载能力下降较快,而草滩段秦长城墙体、瞭望台台基处初始弹性模量和初始剪切模量较小,三处土体硬度较小,易于遭受病害侵蚀破坏,需进行重点加固维护;遗址墙体所建窑洞处土体强度和硬度明显大于长城墙体,动弹性模量和动剪切模量约为其墙体2倍。草滩段瞭望台土体强度和硬度明显大于同地区长城墙体;遗址土体的动剪切模量G/G0随着动剪应变γd的增加而减小,且密度越大,衰减速度越快,阻尼比D随着动剪应变γd的增长,呈现先缓慢增加-急剧增加-缓慢增加的过程,且密度越大,阻尼比越大。按建造年代、建造形制和用途划分、所处地区对典型遗址进行动力特性的对比分析,为今后土遗址加固保护提供理论基础和参考依据。     

安康地区地形变资料同震形变波特征分析

利用安康地区3个形变台2017—2020年地形变资料,对比分析6套形变仪器的映震能力,并从面波延迟时间、最大响应幅度及同震持续时间等方面系统探讨同震形变波的特征参数与震源参数的关系,获知形变仪器映震效能的影响因素和同震形变波的物理分布特征。结果表明:形变仪器的映震能力受仪器自身响应特性、地下介质特性及仪器系统误差等因素的影响;同震形变波物理分布特征表明面波延迟时间与震中距、同震响应最大幅度与震级、同震持续时间与震级及震中距之间存在一定的比例关系。      

云南省防震减灾科普知识小小讲解员比赛的启示

防震减灾科普作品的创作与传播是防震减灾宣传工作的基础与核心。随着防震减灾科普作品的增多,一些共性问题凸显出来,地震科普工作者一直在思考和探索解决的措施。以云南省地震局举办的防震减灾科普知识小小讲解员线上比赛为实践案例,分析人民群众在防震减灾科普作品创作中的作用,获得启示：防震减灾科普作品创作要“从群众中来,到群众中去”,动员和依靠人民群众的力量去创作,在人民群众的实践中创作,为了满足人民群众的地震安全需求、筑牢防震减灾的人民防线而创作。     

郯庐断裂带南段韧性剪切带糜棱岩化过程中长石成分和结构状态变化特征的研究

在对郯庐断裂带南段３条韧性剪切带中糜棱岩及围岩进行矿物组合、结构构造观察研究的基础上,对长石矿物进行了多项分析测试,发现长石成分及其结构状态参数的变化与构造应力场的构造作用存在明显的对应关系：随剪切变形作用的加强,长石矿物的结构状态参数呈增大趋势,矿物单位晶胞的体积和斜长石中Ｓｉ／Ａｌ比值随之减小;长石的变形指数（Ｉｓｓ）和斜长石中的钙长石分子（Ａｎ）与岩石的变形强度呈明显的正相关关系。这些研究结果为探讨构造变形场中矿物岩石的变形 变质作用提供了一种简捷有效的手段     

塔里木盆地南部上地幔各向异性研究

塔里木南缘位于塔里木块体同青藏高原碰撞的前缘,是认识青藏高原同周围块体相互作用的重要位置.横波分裂方法可以获得岩石圈及软流圈地幔的介质各向异性特征,进而探讨岩石圈变形和地幔流动.本文利用横波分裂方法对中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所、北京大学和南方科技大学联合布设在塔里木盆地南部的8个宽频带流动地震台站记录的SKS和SKKS震相进行分析,获得了塔里木盆地南部上地幔各向异性参数.分析结果显示,研究区快波偏振方向总体比较一致呈近东西向,但存在盆地边缘到盆地内部变化,而慢波延迟时间分布在0.3~1.5 s,差异较大.综合前人对青藏高原北缘和阿尔金断裂周边的横波分裂研究结果,研究区内大部分地区地幔流动方向和绝对板块运动方向保持一致,推测青藏高原北缘同塔里木盆地接触带,青藏高原北缘软流圈南东东向流动对塔里木块体下方地幔流动造成扰动,随着深入到塔里木块体内部,干扰越来越弱;同时青藏高原北部软流圈物质可能对塔里木盆地岩石圈产生影响,随着地幔软流圈物质持续向北运动逐渐冷却,对盆地内部岩石圈的影响程度减弱.     

饱和砂岩滞弹性弛豫衰减机理的探索

本文采用从法国引进的Metravib热机械分析仪用正弦波加载方式,首次对四种不同孔隙度的饱和砂岩的衰减进行了实验研究,在5~400 Hz的频率,-50 ℃~100 ℃的温度范围获得衰减的热弛豫规律,由此求得它们的激活能和原子振动频率,其激活能和弛豫时间是处在原子和电子的激活能和弛豫时间之间.可见,在饱和岩石的晶粒间界缺陷处参与扩散的是原子、电子.并得出随孔隙度增大,衰减强度和激活能增大,原子的振动速率加快,弛豫时间缩短.在交变应力作用下,由多种矿物晶体胶结而成的饱和砂岩是一种多晶、多相的固体,由于内部结构复杂,损伤、缺陷广布,弛豫衰减是普遍存在的.饱和砂岩中存在的晶界、相界等许多缺陷,以及缺陷间的相互作用,比如饱和岩石中的饱和液体与岩石骨架之间的作用等等都可以产生弛豫衰减峰,弛豫过程还受晶界上原子扩散所控制.由于饱和岩石中的种种缺陷、相界等等导致上述矿物颗粒或晶界之间的多重弛豫,才使弛豫衰减峰变宽,分布宽度增大.用饱和砂岩中特有的饱和液体及砂岩内部结构的复杂性解释了饱和砂岩的衰减机理,很自然地将其宏观衰减特征与微细观结构紧紧联在一起.衰减及其机理的研究既具有科学意义,对地球物理勘探又具有实用价值.     

流域管理若干问题的研究

流域管理是以水资源的自然流域特性和多功能属性为基础的管理制度,它的目标是使有限的水资源实现优化配置和发挥最大效益.流域管理的问题直接关系到以水资源的可持续利用支持经济社会的可持续发展的大局.通过分析我国流域管理存在的问题,借鉴国外成功的流域管理经验,提出要进一步明确流域管理和行政区域管理的事权,加快流域管理相应的法律法规建设,加大流域管理的支撑保障能力建设,充分发挥流域管理机构科学规划决策、有效配置调控和有力监督控制的作用,进一步探索适合不同流域的管理模式,加大构建公共参与和民主协商机制力度,探索建立流域水资源管理可持续利用的市场机制.     

Theoretical models and experimental determination methods for equations of state of silicate melts: A review

Silicate melts are very active in the interior of the Earth and other terrestrial planets, and are important carriers for the transport of material and energy. The determination of the equation of state(EOS) for silicate melts and the acquisition of a precise quantitative relationship between molar volume(or density) and temperature, pressure, and composition is essential for simulating the generation, migration, and eruption processes of magmas and the evolution of the magma ocean stage during the early formation of the Earth and other terrestrial planets, for calculating and modeling the phase equilibria involving silicate melts, and for revealing the variation of the microstructure of silicate melts with pressure. However, it is experimentally challenging to determine the volumetric properties of silicate melts and the accumulated density data at high pressure are still very limited due to a series of problems such as: the high liquidus temperature of silicate rocks; proneness for silicate melts to react with sample capsules to change the melt composition; and proneness for melts to flow and leak during the high pressure and high temperature experiments. In recent years, there is rapid progress in the high pressure and high temperature experimental techniques, in terms of not only the extension of temperature and pressure ranges but also the improvement on the accuracy of measurements, and the emergence of new methods for in-situ measurements. Here, we review the widely-used theoretical models of ambient-pressure and high-pressure EOS for silicate melts, and illustrate some problems that need to be solved urgently:(1) the room pressure EOS for iron-and titanium-bearing silicate melts needs to be improved;(2) the partial molar properties of the H2 O and CO2 components in silicate melts containing volatile components may vary markedly with the melt composition, which need to be addressed in high-pressure EOS;(3) how the formulation and applicable range of EOS correspond to changes in melt structure and compression mechanism requires further study. We highlight the basic principle and applicable range of various methods for determining the EOS for silicate melts, and compare the advantages and disadvantages of doublebob Archimedes method, fusion curve analysis, shock compression experiments, sink-float method, X-ray absorption, X-ray diffraction and ultrasonic interferometry. Future trends in this field are to develop experimental techniques for in situ measurements on melt density or sound velocity at high temperature and high pressure and to accumulate more experimental data,and on the other hand, to improve the theoretical models of the EOS for silicate melts by a combination of research on the microstructure and compression mechanisms of silicate melts.     

汶川地震甘肃灾区恢复重建的实践与启示

今年是汶川地震十周年,2018年汶川特大地震给我国四川、甘肃等地区造成了巨大的灾难与伤痛,留下了宝贵的经验和教训,并给人以深刻警示。在灾后重建中结合受灾特点和当地经济发展现状,如何科学制订重建规划体系、创新重建模式和管理机制、加快重建速度,是高质量完成重建任务、大力改善民生、实现经济恢复振兴、促进社会和谐稳定的根本保证。同时,在重建中科学考虑潜在的地震灾害风险,最大限度地减少和避免地震灾害损失,采取务实可行的防震减灾对策也极为重要。本文概述十年前汶川特大地震对甘肃省造成的震害情况,基于甘肃灾区恢复重建的工作实践,阐明了甘肃灾区的重建原则和规划体系特点,从创新思想认识、强化社会管理、完善扶持政策、突出重建重点、提升基础能力、防范灾害风险等方面,分析总结灾后重建的主要措施与取得的成效,深刻反映了国家和地方政府在坚持科学执政、民主执政、依法执政、建设人民满意的服务型政府所取得的进步,也可为未来应对大震巨灾和各种自然灾害发生的重建工作提供重要的经验启示。     

Petromagnetic and paleomagnetic study of Jurassic sedimentary rocks of the southeast of Russia

In the present paper the new petro- and paleomagnetic data on the Jurassic terrigenous complexes of the Mesozoic sedimentary basins of the Amur River region, Trans Baikal region, and Yakutia are presented. The magnetic properties of the sedimentary rocks of coastal-marine (paleo-shelf) and lake genesis are investigated in the contemporary intracontinental riftogenic Mesozoic superimposed troughs of the Siberian and Amur plates: the Chulmansk, the Unda-Dainsk, the Sredne-Amur, the Amuro-Zeisk, and the Verkhne-Bureinsk troughs. The statistically significant differences in the magnetic (anisotropic) characteristics of continental and marine deposits were inferred. The correlation of the scalar and tensor characteristics of magnetic susceptibility anisotropy and the parameters of its linearity, which depend indirectly on the intensity of the folding, is established. The preferential directions of regional stress during the fold formation are determined based on the analysis of the distribution of the axes of the tensor ellipsoid of the magnetic susceptibility anisotropy. The Jurassic positions of the paleomagnetic pole, which are close to the Mesozoic section of the trajectory of its apparent motion for the North Chinese plate and which differ from the Jurassic poles of the Siberian plate, are defined more accurately. The intraplate rotations of geoblocks within the limits of the amalgamated to the end of the Jurassic-to the beginning of the Cretaceous terrains as a part of the Amur tectonic plate are inferred. The calculated coordinates of the paleomagnetic pole indicate the larger than the present-day difference of the latitudinal positions of the southern part of the Siberian plate, and also of the Amur and North Chinese plates in the Early-Middle Jurassic time. This can be indicative of the fact that the total width of the shallow residual basins of the Paleo-Asian Ocean, which separated the geoblocks indicated in the Early-Middle Jurassic, attained the first thousands of kilometers, and/or such a difference in the paleolatitudes reflects the total value of the shortening (crowding) of the crust during the accretion and the fold formation. The time of the completion of the accretion of the terrains of the Amur and the North-Chinese plates and their attachment to the Siberian plate is not earlier than the end of the Late Jurassic-the beginning of the Cretaceous.     

Some aspects of the monsoon circulation and monsoon rainfall

Summary The south Asian summer monsoon from June to September accounts for the greater part of the annual rainfall over most of India and southeast Asia. The evolution of the summer and winter monsoon circulations over India is examined on the basis of the surface and upper air data of stations across India. The salient features of the seasonal reversals of temperature and pressure gradients and winds and the seasonal and synoptic fluctuations of atmospheric humidity are discussed. The space-time variations of rainfall are considered with the help of climatic pentad rainfall charts and diagrams. The rainfall of several north and central Indian stations shows a minimum around mid-August and a maximum around mid-February which seem to be connected with the extreme summer and winter positions of the ITCZ and the associated north-south shifts in the seasonal circulation patterns. Attention is drawn to the characteristic features of the monsoon rainfall that emerge from a study of daily and hourly rainfall of selected stations. Diurnal variations of temperature, pressure, wind and rainfall over the monsoon belt are briefly treated.     

主余震作用下山地掉层框架结构的易损性分析

一次强震过后通常伴有多次余震发生,由于主震和其后续余震之间的间隔时间较短,使得主震损伤结构未能得到及时修复而进一步遭受余震作用,产生“二次损伤”。山地结构的受力性能与普通结构有显著差别。参考我国现行规范设计了具有代表性的3个不同掉层数与掉跨数的山地掉层框架结构及1个普通平地框架结构,采用增量动力分析方法,以Park-Ang损伤指数作为结构响应参数DM,以PGA作为地震动强度参数IM,给出了掉层结构以及平地结构在主余震作用下的易损性曲线,对比分析了掉层结构与平地结构的易损性,研究了余震对各结构易损性的附加影响。基于抗倒塌储备系数(CMR)评价了结构的抗倒塌能力,比较了各结构的抗震倒塌安全储备。结果表明:余震会提高结构的超越概率,且随着余震强度的提高,超越概率越大;掉层结构的超越概率更高,且掉层数与掉跨数对结构地震易损性的影响较大;与平地结构相比,山地掉层结构抗倒塌储备系数较小,抗倒塌安全储备较低。对于掉层结构,掉跨数与掉层数的增加均会降低结构的抗倒塌安全储备,且掉层数对CMR的影响更大。     

洞庭湖近几十年来湖盆变化及冲淤特征

洞庭湖是我国著名的五大淡水湖泊之一,位于长江中游荆江段南岸,湖南省境内.历史时期,曾经是我国第一大淡水湖,直至新中国成立初期,湖泊面积仍然有4350km2,居我国淡水湖泊之首位.但由于洞庭湖承纳“四水”,吞吐长江,长江大量水沙涌入洞庭湖,造成了湖盆迅速淤高,加之由此诱发的人类大规模地湖泊垦殖活动,湖泊急剧萎缩.目前,洞庭湖已退居鄱阳湖之后,为我国第二大淡水湖泊.湖泊的严重泥沙淤积,已经造成了湖泊调蓄长江中游洪水功能的严重衰退,不但危及湖南省的防洪的安全,而且危及长江中下游地区的防洪安全,研究洞庭湖的湖盆冲淤演变具有重要意义.本文根据1974、1988和1998年洞庭湖125000水下地形资料,并针对洞庭湖具有显著上下游水位落差的实际,分不同高程和不同水位情况下,分析洞庭湖湖泊面积和容积演变特征,探讨洞庭湖近几十年来的湖盆变化及冲淤规律,试图揭示洞庭湖湖泊调蓄能力的变化过程.     

T形钢管混凝土柱与钢梁外伸端板连接节点抗震性能试验研究

本文对3个T形钢管混凝土柱与钢梁外伸端板连接节点进行了低周反复荷载作用下的试验研究及分析,研究外伸端板连接节点破坏形式及抗震性能。分析结果表明:该类节点的强度主要取决于高强螺栓的强度及外伸端板的强度和刚度,高强螺栓强度和外伸端板厚度的不同直接影响节点的性能;该类节点具有较好的耗能性能,强度较高。这些研究结果对外伸端板连接节点的研究和应用提供了一定的理论基础。     

基于质量平衡的太湖氮、磷自净能力计算

以太湖为研究对象,利用2010年实测的进出太湖的水量和水质资料计算了太湖水体自净能力,在分析河道入湖、降雨、调蓄量等入湖水量水质基础上,探索了基于质量平衡原理的太湖总氮、总磷自净能力计算方法.结果显示,通过考虑出入湖负荷量的方法得到太湖总磷和总氮的自净率约为48%和42%,采用基于质量平衡原理得到太湖总磷和总氮的自净率分别约为52%和49%.另外,还分析了这两种方法的优缺点,提出进一步研究太湖自净能力的工作方向.     

Introduction to seismic travel time methods in anisotropic media

Summary Section 1 (and 11) develops the concepts of the front velocity, the front gradient, the travel time in space and on seismometric profiles, the profile velocity and the profile gradient in connection with the propagation of the fronts of elastic waves in solid isotropic and anisotropic media. The sectional velocity and the sectional gradient are defined in terms of the motion of the curve of intersection of a front with a fixed surface. Section 2 (and 12) relates the coefficients of elasticity of the medium, the front types, and their respective rays. In section 12, the theory of fronts of arbitrary shape and of the corresponding rays for any anisotropic, homogeneous or inhomogeneous solid medium is summarized. In section 3 (and 13), the law of reflection and refraction of fronts on surfaces of discontinuity of arbitrary shape is presented. Sections 4 to 6 (and 14 to 16) treat some elementary applications of seismic travel time methods to homogeneous, uniaxially anisotropic media (=transverse isotropy) in greater detail. In section 4 (and 14), the travel time of a direct front generated by a point source is considered and it is shown how the coefficients of elasticity of the medium can be found based on travel time measurements. The seismic prospection of a plane reflector and of a reflecting boundary of arbitrary shape and position are discussed in section 5 (and 15). In section 6 (and 16), the seismic refraction method is used to locate a plane boundary between a homogeneous, uniaxially anisotropic and a homogeneous isotropic medium, where the boundary is perpendicular or at an arbitrary angle to the direction of anisotropy.     

Geodynamics of decratonization and related magmatism and mineralization in the North China Craton

The North China Craton(NCC) experienced strong destruction(i.e., decratonization) during the Mesozoic, which triggered intensive magmatism, tectonism and thermal events and formed large-scale gold and other metal deposits in the eastern part of the craton. However, how the decratonization controls the formation and distribution of large-scale of gold and other metal deposits is not very clear. Based on a large number of published data and new results, this paper systematically summarizes all the data for the rock assemblages, chronology, geochemistry and petrogenesis of Mesozoic magmatic rocks, as well as for the mineralizing ages of gold and other metal deposits and the evolution of the Mesozoic basins in the eastern NCC. The results are used to restore the extensional rates of Mesozoic to Cenozoic basins and the strike-slip distance of the Tanlu Fault, to ascertain the location of the Paleo-Pacific plate subduction zones during the Mesozoic to Cenozoic, and to reconstruct the temporal and spatial distribution of Mesozoic gold and other metal deposits and magmatic rocks in the eastern NCC. It is obtained that the magmatism and mineralization in the eastern NCC westward migrate from east to west during the Early to Middle Jurassic, but they eastward migrate from west to east during the Early Cretaceous. The metallogenesis of these deposits is genetically related to magmatism, and the magmas provided some ore-forming materials and fluids for the generation of metal deposits. The geodynamic mechanism of decratonization and related magmatism and mineralization is proposed, i.e., the westward low-angle subduction of the Paleo-Pacific slab beneath the NCC formed continental magmatic arc with plenty of porphyry Cu-Mo-Au deposits in the Jurassic, similar to the Andean continental arc in South America. The mantle wedge was metasomatized by the fluids/melts derived from the subducting slab, laying a material foundation for hydrothermal mineralization in the Early Cretaceous. While the rollback of the subducting slab with gradually increasing subduction angle and the retreat of the subduction zones during the Early Cretaceous induced strong destruction of the craton and the formation of extensive magmatic rocks and large-scale gold and other metal deposits.     

COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF RECENT GRAVITY AND CRUSTAL DEFORMATION IN NORTHWESTERN GUANGXI

Northwest Guangxi is located in the Youjiang fold belt and the Hunan-Guangxi fold belt of secondary structure unit of South China fold system. The South China fold was miogeosyncline in the early Paleozoic, the Caledonian fold returned and transformed into the standard platform, and the Indosinian movement ended the Marine sedimentary history, which laid the basic structural framework of this area. Since the neotectonic period, large areas have been uplifted intermittently in the region and Quaternary denudation and planation planes and some faulted basins have been developed. Affected by the strong uplift of Yunnan-Guizhou plateau, the topography of the region subsides from northwest to southeast, with strong terrain cutting and deep valley incision. Paleozoic carbonate rocks and Mesozoic clastic rocks are mainly exposed on the earth's surface, and its geomorphology is dominated by corrosion and erosion landforms. The dating results show that most of the structures in northwest Guangxi are middle Pleistocene active faults, and the movement mode is mainly stick-slip. According to the seismogeological research results of the eastern part of the Chinese mainland, the active faults of the middle Pleistocene have the structural conditions for generating earthquakes of about magnitude 6. In the northwest Guangxi, the crustal dynamic environment and geological structure are closely related to Sichuan and Yunnan regions. Under the situation that magnitude 6 earthquakes occurred successively in Sichuan and Yunnan region and magnitude 7 earthquakes are poised to happen, the risk of moderately strong earthquakes in the northwest Guangxi region cannot be ignored. Based on the analysis of deep structure and geophysical field characteristics, it is concluded that the Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang area in the northwestern Guangxi is not only the area with strong variation of the Moho surface isobath, but also the M_L3.0 seismic gap since September 2015, and the abnormal low b value area along the main fault. Regions with these deep structural features often have the conditions for moderately strong earthquakes. The paper systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution features and mechanism of regional gravitational field and horizontal crust movement and further studies and discusses the changes of regional gravitational field, crustal horizontal deformation and interaction between geologic structure and seismic activity based on 2014-2018 mobile gravity measurements and 2015-2017 GPS observation data in the northwestern Guangxi. The results show that:1)On July 15, 2017, a M_S4.0 earthquake in Nandan happened near the center of four quadrants of changes of gravity difference, and the center of abnormal area is located at the intersection of the Mulun-Donglang-Luolou Fault, the Hechi-Nandan Fault and the Hechi-Yizhou Fault. The dynamic graph of differential scale gravitational field reflects the gravity changes at the epicenter before and after the Nandan earthquake, which is a process of system evolution of "local gravity anomaly to abnormal four-quadrant distribution features → to earthquake occurring at the turning point of gravity gradient zone and the zero line to backward recovery variation after earthquake". Meanwhile, according to the interpretation of focal mechanism of the Nandan earthquake, seismogram and analysis of seismic survey results, the paper thinks that the four-quadrant distribution of positive and negative gravity, which is consistent with the effect of strike-slip type seismogenic fault before Nandan earthquake, demonstrates the existence of dextral strike-slip faulting; 2)The pattern of spatial distribution of gravitational field change in northwestern Guangxi is closely related to active fault. The isoline of cumulative gravity generally distributes along Nandan-Hechi Fault and Hechi-Yizhou Fault. The gravity on both sides of the fault zone is different greatly, and gradient zone has influences on a broad area; the spatial distribution of deformation field is generally featured by horizontal nonuniformity. Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang area is located at the high gradient zone of gravity changes and the horizontal deformation surface compressional transition zone, as well as near the intersection of Hechi-Yizhou Fault, Hechi-Nandan Fault and Du'an-Mashan Fault; 3)The geometric shape of gravitational field in northwestern Guangxi corresponds to the spatial distribution of horizontal crustal movement, which proves the exchange and dynamic action of material and energy in the region that cause the change and structural deformation of fault materials and the corresponding gravity change on earth's surface. The recent analysis of abnormal crustal deformation in northwestern Guangxi shows that Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang is a gradient zone of abnormal gravity change and also a horizontal deformation surface compressional transition zone. It locates at the section of significant change of Moho isobaths, the seismicity gap formed by M_L3.0 earthquakes and the abnormal low b-value zone. According to comprehensive analysis, the region has the risk of moderately strong earthquake.