夏垫断裂大胡庄探槽古地震事件分析

夏垫断裂是北京平原区内1条极为重要的隐伏活动断裂,同时也是1679年三河—平谷MS8.0地震的发震断层。为获取该断裂完整的古地震序列,主要开展了2方面工作:(1)以大胡庄探槽原始资料为基础,重新对探槽进行了解译,共识别出3个埋藏古土壤,6个崩积楔和1次砂土液化现象;(2)结合该断裂其它部位探槽揭示的古地震事件,通过对比各探槽标志性地层,建立不同探槽中古地震事件在同一时间轴上的联系,得到夏垫断裂完整的古地震序列。结果表明:距今31 ka以来,夏垫断裂共发生过11次古地震事件,古地震平均复发间隔约为2.8ka,但距今25~15 ka存在1个古地震丛集期,丛集期内共发生5次强震,平均复发间隔约为2.0 ka,反映出夏垫断裂活动性存在阶段性的差异。     

蔚广盆地南缘断裂带唐山口段山前断层活动性研究

蔚广盆地是山西地堑系北端京西北盆岭构造区内的一个半地堑盆地,蔚广盆地南缘断裂带为控制该盆地形成的边界断裂。该断裂带位于唐山口段的山前断裂在冲洪积扇体上形成了线性特征显著的断层陡坎。横跨断层陡坎开挖的探槽表明该条山前断裂属于全新世活动断裂,探槽揭示了2条活动断层以及相应的3次古地震事件。在距今约9ka时其中一条断层首次活动,之后在距今约7.3ka时该条断层再次活动并引发了另一条断层的形成与同步活动。最后它们又发生了第三次活动,而最新一次活动的时间由于相应地表沉积的缺失而无法获得。这3次古地震事件的累积垂直位错约为8.1m。估算出整条山前断裂的平均复发周期约为1.7ka、平均滑动速率约为1.6mm/a。此外还依据经验公式估算出了各次古地震的参考震级。     

酒西盆地白杨河断裂古地震特征研究

白杨河断裂是酒西盆地内部一条重要的活动断裂,断裂长约25 km,整体走向近EW,倾向N,倾角约25°。以往的研究认为白杨河断裂为一条全新世活动的隐伏断裂,其持续的活动造成了上覆阶地变形,形成白杨河背斜。通过卫星影像解译和野外实地考察,在断裂西段和中段发现连续发育的低断层陡坎,表明断裂活动已至地表。古地震探槽揭露白杨河断裂全新世以来至少发生过2次地震事件,年代分别为距今(8.7±0.6)ka和(3.9±0.5)ka,每次地震事件的垂直断距都在约0.6 m,利用经验公式,估算震级约为6.8级。     

佛洞庙-红崖子断裂古地震事件

佛洞庙-红崖子断裂位于祁连山北缘断裂带中段,是1条活动逆断裂。在佛洞庙-红崖子断裂东、中、西各段落开挖整理了5个探槽。通过探槽揭示的各地层单元的沉积特征、各单元之间的层序关系以及断层对不同地层的切割关系,共辨认出了4次古地震事件。根据探槽中各地层单元的14C样品和光释光样品测年结果,对4次古地震事件给出了年龄制约:最早事件E4发生在距今约10.6ka,事件E3发生在距今约7.1ka,事件E2发生在距今约3.4ka,事件E1为1609年红崖堡地震。这4次地震事件的间隔分别约3.5ka、3.7ka和3.0ka,平均复发间隔约3.4ka,具有准周期重复特征。     

祁连山北缘玉门—北大河断裂东段古地震特征

玉门—北大河断裂是酒西盆地南侧的一条重要的活动断裂, 断裂西起青草湾, 向东经老玉门市、 青头山、 大红泉, 止于北大河以东骨头泉一带, 长约80 km, 走向北西西, 倾向南, 倾角20°~60°。 玉门—北大河断裂为一条全新世活动的逆冲断裂, 断裂东段保留了地震破裂带遗迹, 通过野外断错地貌调查和探槽开挖, 揭示该破裂带形成于距今1.7±0.3 ka, 此前断裂在4.1±0.3~5.4±0.3 ka及8.4±1.0 ka还有过2次古地震事件, 利用经验公式和已有震例估算, 每次地震震级约为M7。     

柯坪塔格断裂西段古地震初步研究

柯坪塔格断裂位于西南天山柯坪塔格推覆构造的最前缘,以皮羌断裂为界分成东西两段。在柯坪塔格断裂西段开挖了6个规模较大的探槽,6个探槽都揭露出断层,但其中3个探槽的古地震事件不清晰,另外3个探槽有古地震遗迹。通过分析研究,共确定了全新世以来的4次古地震事件:第1次古地震事件发生于距今约12ka,第2次事件发生于距今约8·6ka,第3次事件大致发生于距今约5ka,第4次事件发生于距今(1·73±0.15)ka以来,很可能是1961年西克尔6·8级地震。这4次古地震事件具有约3~5ka的准周期重复特征。天山南麓有5~6排推覆体,每排推覆体的前缘都发育活动逆断裂,它们向下收敛于寒武系底部的滑脱面,因此,天山南麓的地震破裂非常复杂,这4次古地震事件的震级、发震构造等问题都有待于今后的深入研究     

海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律

海原断裂是中国西部的一条重要活动走滑断裂带, 1920年沿该带发生的8.5级强震形成了230 km长的地表破裂带和10 m的左旋走滑位移. 为了揭示这条重要发震断裂的强震活动规律, 沿断裂带的3个段落开挖了17个探槽, 揭示了大量的古地震事件, 并结合前人的研究结果, 利用古地震分析的逐次限定方法研究了海原断裂带的强震复发规律. 研究发现, 海原断裂带的3个段落具有分段差异的古地震活动历史; 古地震破裂有3种尺度, 即单段破裂、双段破裂和全段破裂. 另外, 整个海原断裂带的古地震丛集现象也十分明显, 第1丛集期在距今4600~6300 a期间, 第2丛集期发生在距今1000~2800 a期间. 海原断裂带的古地震活动习性对于认识大陆走滑断裂的破裂特征和强震复发规律具有十分重要的意义.     

祁连山北缘玉门断裂晚更新世以来的活动速率及古地震

玉门断裂位于青藏高原东北缘的祁连山造山带西段,与阿尔金断裂相邻,构造位置特殊,是青藏高原北缘向外扩展的最新活动证据。近20a越来越多的研究使得对其认识逐渐从弱活动向强活动转变。因此,玉门断裂作为1条青藏高原北缘祁连山造山带中新生的活动断裂和褶皱带,确定它晚更新世至全新世的活动性和古地震复发周期具有重要的意义。文中通过对玉门断裂山前冲积扇面和北大河阶地的影像解译与断层陡坎的测量,以及对2条不同断层陡坎的探槽开挖工作,获得了以下几点认识:1)玉门断裂全新世以来的垂直活动速率为0.41~0.48mm/a,晚更新世晚期以来的垂直活动速率为0.24~0.30mm/a。2)玉门断裂全新世以来共发生4次古地震事件,这4次古地震分别发生在6.12~10.53kaBP、3.6~5.38kaBP、1.64~1.93kaBP和0.63~1.64kaBP。总体上表现出复发间隔逐渐缩短,活动性增强的趋势,并且每次古地震都可能造成多支断层同时破裂,形成陡坎。     

登登山-池家刺窝断裂晚第四纪活动性定量研究

登登山-池家刺窝断裂位于阿尔金断裂东端宽滩山隆起的NE侧,总体走向NW,地貌上表现为醒目的断层陡坎;登登山段长约19km,池家刺窝段长约6.5km。通过卫星影像解译、探槽开挖、断错地貌测量及年龄样品测试等工作,研究了2条断裂的新活动特征。宽滩山NE麓普遍发育3级地貌面,即山前基岩侵蚀台面和冲沟I、Ⅱ级阶地。登登山断裂断错除I级阶地以外的其他地貌面,陡坎高度普遍在1.5m左右,最大高度2.6m。探槽揭露登登山断裂晚更新世以来有3次古地震事件,3次事件的总断距约2.7m,一次事件的垂直断距为0.5~1.2m,事件Ⅰ大约发生于距今5ka;事件Ⅱ大致发生于距今2×10~4a,事件Ⅲ大致发生于距今3.5×10~4a,重复间隔约1.5×10~4a,晚更新世以来的垂直滑动速率约为0.04mm/a。池家刺窝断裂断错了所有3级地貌面,陡坎最大高度为4m,一般在2m左右。探槽揭露池家刺窝断裂晚更新世以来也有3次古地震事件,3次事件的总断距约3.25m,1次事件的垂直位错为0.75~1.5m,晚更新世以来断裂垂直滑动速率为0.06mm/a。池家刺窝断裂古地震事件年代限定较差,但最新1次事件晚于登登山断裂,根据登登山断裂古地震事件的研究结果,推测池家刺窝断裂古地震重复间隔接近于登登山断裂的1.5×10~4a左右。池家刺窝断裂的最新活动时代晚于登登山断裂,1次事件的垂直位错及晚更新世以来的垂直滑动速率都比登登山断裂略大,2条断裂之间还有长约5km的不连续段,被第四纪冲洪积砂砾石层覆盖,地形平坦,断裂地貌特征不发育,这些都表明登登山断裂和池家刺窝断裂具有明显的分段活动特征。阿尔金断裂以北的登登山和池家刺窝断裂规模都不大,垂直滑动速率仅为0.04~0.06mm/a,远小于祁连山断裂及酒西盆地内NW向断裂的垂直滑动速率,反映出构造变形主要限制在高原内部及河西走廊地区,登登山和池家刺窝断裂以低滑动速率、古地震复发间隔很长(10~4a)的缓慢构造变形为特征。     

龙首山北缘断裂带古地震初步探讨

龙首山北缘断裂带是潮水盆地与龙首山地的地貌分界线,展布于龙首山隆起的北麓。前期曾在龙首山北缘断裂带东段的白家嘴、中段包代河、西段斜坡山开挖了三个探槽,均揭露出多期古地震。本文通过三个探槽古地震事件的对比分析认为,龙首山北缘断裂带第1次古地震(11 ka)到最后1次古地震(1.6 ka)间隔9.4 ka,约1万年时间里有6次古地震发生。如果取算术平均(9.4 ka/6=1.57 ka),则每隔1 500年左右,龙首山北缘断裂带就有一次强地震事件,即古地震平均重复间隔约1.57 ka。这和其它各大断裂带得出的古地震优势重现周期(1~2 ka)并不矛盾。①5 ka年以前龙首山北缘断裂带仅有2次古地震事件,重复间隔5.3 ka,明显偏长,可能有古地震的遗漏问题;②5 ka年以后该断裂地震活动明显丛集,最短间隔0.7 ka,最长间隔1.5 ka,平均重复间隔约0.8 ka。无论是最短、最长或平均重复间隔,均与山丹-张掖地区历史地震的最长重复间隔0.79 ka接近。     

Marine Active Fault Exploration and Paleoearthquake Research

Marine active fault exploration and Paleoearthquake research are still a gap in China.The paper gives a review on major research methods and new progress made abroad,including submarine survey boat.seismic reflection and acoustic reflection.Through detailed studies of offset history of 10 ka to 30ka,it is possible to determine paleoearthquake recurrent intervals and elapsed time since last major earthquake.It is suggested that active fault exploration can be carried out by acoustic exploring method in large earthquake region of Bohai Sea.Paleoearthquake activity history can be revealed and earthquake risk in the future can be predicted.     

Using borehole core analysis to reveal Late Quaternary paleoearthquakes along the Nankou-Sunhe Fault,Beijing

The Nankou-Sunhe Fault is a buried active normal fault that traverses the urban area of Beijing.Its seismic risks have caused considerable concerns.This paper studies paleoearthquakes along this fault by analyzing and correlating bore-hole cores obtained from triple-tube coring,incorporating experience acquired from trenching.As a result,a model for identifying earthquake-derived colluvium by sediment-core analysis is proposed.Triple-tube coring technique is useful to collect continuous undis-turbed soil core near the Nankou-Sunhe Fault.By identifying fault-scarp colluviums,determining cumulative displacement,and analysing stratum thickening on the hanging wall,we are able to establish a preliminary paleoearthquake sequence consisting of 13 surface-rupturing events since 60 ka.The seismic history can be divided into three periods based on different recurrence intervals.Between 60 and 40 ka,three earthquakes occurred with recurrence interval of ～10 ka.From 40 to 25 ka,there were six earthquakes with the recurrence interval of about 2.5 ka.In the last 25 ka,four earthquakes have taken place with the recurrence interval varying considerably.The recurrence interval between the last three events is ～5 ka.Smaller recurrence intervals correspond to stages of faster fault slip.The coseismic displacement of a single event is 0.8 to 2.2 m,average 1.4 m,largely equivalent to moment magnitudes 6.7-7.1.This study demonstrates the feasibility of bore-hole drilling in investigating paleoearthquakes along normal faults.It also suggests that closely spaced boreholes with continuous undisturbed cores are essential for reconstructing the complete paleoearthquake sequence.     

活断层定量资料在大震年发生率评定中的应用

大震年发生率的评定在地震区划中是一项非常重要的工作。但由于大震复发行为的复杂性,目前尚未建立合理的大震复发模型。本文通过美国地震区划图的截断G—R关系模型和特征地震模型组成的混合模型,利用活断层地质定量资料（滑动速率、古地震等）评定了大震的年发生率。结合我国的地震构造环境特征和资料的精细程度,将以上方法加以修正,并选择典型断裂进行了计算,同时还把计算结果与我国第三代、第四代地震区划图进行了比较和分析。     

STUDY ON PALEOEARTHQUAKES ALONG THE JINGHE SECTION OF BOLOKENU-AQIKEKUDUKE FAULT

The Bolokenu-Aqikekuduk fault zone(B-A Fault)is a 1 000km long right-lateral strike-slip active fault in the Tianshan Mountains. Its late Quaternary activity characteristics are helpful to understand the role of active strike-slip faults in regional compressional strain distribution and orogenic processes in the continental compression environment, as well as seismic hazard assessment. In this paper, research on the paleoearthquakes is carried out by remote sensing image interpretation, field investigation, trench excavation and Quaternary dating in the Jinghe section of B-A Fault. In this paper, two trenches were excavated on in the pluvial fans of Fan2b in the bulge and Fan3a in the fault scarp. The markers such as different strata, cracks and colluvial wedges in the trenches are identified and the age of sedimentation is determined by means of OSL dating for different strata. Four most recent paleoearthquakes on the B-A Fault are revealed in trench TC1 and three most recent paleoearthquakes are revealed in trench TC2. Only the latest event was constrained by the OSL age among the three events revealed in the trench TC2. Therefore, when establishing the recurrence of the paleoearthquakes, we mainly rely on the paleoearthquake events in trench TC1, which are labeled E1-E4 from oldest to youngest, and their dates are constrained to the following time ranges: E1(19.4±2.5)~(19.0±2.5)ka BP, E2(18.6±1.4)~(17.3±1.4)ka BP, E3(12.2±1.2)~(6.6±0.8)ka BP, and E4 6.9~6.2ka BP, respectively. The earthquake recurrence intervals are(1.2±0.5)ka, (8.7±3.0)ka and(2.8±3)ka, respectively. According to the sedimentation rate of the stratum, it can be judged that there is a sedimentary discontinuity between the paleoearthquakes E2 and E3, and the paleoearthquake events between E2 and E3 may not be recorded by the stratum. Ignoring the sedimentary discontinuous strata and the earthquakes occurring during the sedimentary discontinuity, the earthquake recurrence interval of the Jinghe section of B-A Fault is ~1~3ka. This is consistent with the earthquake recurrence interval(~2ka)calculated from the slip rate and the minimum displacement. The elapsed time of the latest paleoearthquake recorded in the trench is ~6.9~6.2ka BP. The magnitude of the latest event defined by the single event displacement on the fault is ~M_W7.4, and a longer earthquake elapsed time indicates the higher seismic risk of the B-A Fault.     

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model, the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault, which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology, geodesy, and historical earthquake records. Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world, this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap, motion strongly locked, sparse small-moderate earthquakes, and apparent Coulomb stress increase. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations; the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.     

酒西盆地断层活动特征及古地震研究

通过室内航片判读和野外调查 ,在酒西盆地发现 3条全新世活动逆掩断层 ,它们全新世以来的垂直活动速率都很接近 ,为 0 18～ 0 2 5mm/a。通过探槽揭露出的 3条断层全新世以来各发生两次古地震事件。根据探槽揭露的古地震年代及断层活动所形成的微地貌特征分析 ,阴洼山断层是独立活动的 ;北大河断层和新民堡断层上的古地震事件在时间上可能非常接近 ,具有丛集特征 ,或者是一次地震事件分别破裂这两条断层 ,但目前的测年手段还无法区别它们是一次破裂事件形成还是时间上非常接近的两次事件所形成的     

松原市扶余北隐伏活动断裂地震潜势研究

扶余肇东断裂带是松辽盆地中一条重要的隐伏发震断裂带,2006年和2014年在此断裂带上发生了多次近6级地震,地震活动主要集中在断裂的东北段和查干花段。在2012—2014年的松原市活断层探测工作中,探明扶余肇东断裂带东北段经过松原市区,该段呈近EW向,具有明显的分段性和独立性,将其命名为扶余北断裂。通过三维物探资料和浅层人工探测,确定了扶余北断裂的空间展布和剖面特征,并利用联排钻孔探测和光释光测年技术,确定该断裂存在晚更新世以来的活动;利用石油物探资料获得的基岩面破裂规模,对扶余北断裂的地震潜势进行了估计,并进行了概率性地震危险性研究。     

赣南地区历史地震补充研究

通过对赣南地区历史地震资料系统地调查研究,以地域人文背景、史志记载情况等为切入点,综合考证历史地震记载的完整性,并在充分挖掘可用信息的基础上,对公元412年、1603年、1847年和1888年等历史地震事件进行了甄别和参数核定。研究表明,公元1500年之后赣南地区的地震记载相对较连续;区内地震活动呈自东南向西北逐渐减弱的趋势,且地震主要分布在NE或NNE向主干断裂附近,以及主干断裂与NW向断裂的交接复合地区;原地重复发生地震的频率相对较高。该结果可用于修定新版地震目录、开展重大建设项目工程场地的地震安全性评价及历史地震调查等工作中,为区域地震活动性研究、防震减灾规划决策等提供基础依据。      

Study on Integrated Recurrence Behaviors of Strong Earthquakes Along Entire Active Fault Zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region, China

Based on historical earthquake data, we use statistical methods to study integrated recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes along 7 selected active fault zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that recurrences of strong earthquakes in the 7 fault zones display near-random, random and clustering behaviors. The recurrence processes are never quasiperiodic, and are neither strength-time nor time-strength dependent. The more independent segments for strong earthquake rupturing a fault zone has, the more complicated the corresponding recurrence process is. And relatively active periods and quiescent periods for earthquake activity occur alternatively. Within the active periods, the distribution of recurrence time intervals between earthquakes has relatively large discretion, and can be modelled well by a Weibull distribution. The time distribution of the quiescent periods has relatively small discretion, and can be approximately described by some distributions as the normal. Both the durations of the active periods and the numbers of strong earthquakes within the active periods vary obviously cycle by cycle, leading to the relatively active periods having never repeated quasi-periodically. Therefore, the probabilistic assessment for middle- and longterm seismic hazard for entireties of active fault zones based on data of historical strong earthquakes on the fault zones still faces difficulty.