鄂尔多斯块体周缘强震活动时空特征及地震危险性分析

采用公元 4 0 0～ 2 0 0 0年MS ≥ 6 .0地震资料 ,研究鄂尔多斯块体周缘 ( 34°～ 4 2°N ,1 0 4 .5°～ 1 1 4 .5°E)强震活动时空特征 .结果表明 ,鄂尔多斯周缘强震活动具有时间分期性、时空迁移有序性、填空性与重复性、大地震等间隔分布特点 .地震危险性分析表明下一个 7级地震可能发生在北部边缘的阴山地震带两端 .     

中等地震的时空分布和强震

基于AkioYoshida等人的研究思路 ,以大华北地区 (30°～ 4 2°N ,10 9°～ 12 5°E)为例 ,来探讨我国大陆区域强震和中等地震时空分布之间的联系。通过对大华北地区 1970年以来 12次ML≥ 6地震的空间—时间分布情况进行研究后发现 ,该区强震发生前后 15年内 ,强震周围 2 0 0km内通常都有 5级以上地震活动。根据区域构造特点等因素 ,将大华北地区近期的强震活动分成 3个区域 ,并对该区近期的地震活动作了回顾和展望。     

2001年云南地区地震活动概述

1　地震活动概况据昆明区域数字地震台网测定 ,2 0 0 1年 1月至 1 2月云南地区 (2 1°～ 2 9°Ｎ ,97°～ 1 0 6°Ｅ)共发生Ｍ≥ 3 0级地震 1 88次 (不含余震 ) ,其中 3 0～ 3 9级地震 1 49次 ,4 0～ 4 9级地震 2 7次 ,5 0～ 5 9级地　　图 1　 2 0 0 1年云南地区Ｍ≥ 3 0级地震Ｍ -ｔ图震 1 1次 ,6 0级地震 1次。 2 0 0 1年云南省内共发生Ｍ≥ 5 0级地震 7组 9次 ,分别是 3月 1 0澜沧 5 0级地震 ,4月 1 0、1 2日和 6月 8日施甸 5 2、 5 9和 5 3级地震 ,5月 2 4日宁蒗 5 8级地震 ,7月 1 0日楚雄 5 3级地震 ,7月 1 5日江川5 0…     

2002年8月首都圈地区ML≥2.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 2年 8月首都圈地区 ( 3 8.0°～ 41 .0°N,1 1 3 .0°～ 1 2 0 .0°E)共发生 ML≥ 2 .0地震 9次 (见表 1 ) ,其中 ML≥ 3 .0地震 2次。3日 1 5时 57分发生在沙城的 ML 4.4地震是本月最显著的事件。首都圈本月地震活动强度高于上个月 ,频度与上月相比略低。能量释放处于中等偏低水平。震中主要分布在北京西北沙城和唐山地区表 1　 2 0 0 2年 8月首都圈地区 ML≥ 2 .0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒　震中位置φN/°　　　　 λE/°震级ML震　中0 12 0 0 2 - 0 8- 0 3T15 - 5 7- …     

2001年10月华北地区ML≥3.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 1年 1 0月华北地区 ( 3 3 .0°～ 42 .0°N,1 1 1 .0°～ 1 2 5.0°E)共发生 ML≥ 3 .0地震 7次 (见表 1 ) ,2 5日 7时 42分张北 ( 41 .2°N,1 1 4.6°E) ML 3 .6地震是本月最显著的事件。本月地震频度基本与上月持平 ,参考 1 992年以来的月平均地震频次 ,1 0月处于中等水平 ,地震活动月能量释放处于中等偏低状态 ,震中相对集中在唐山老震区。表 1　 2 0 0 1年 10月华北地区 ML≥ 3.0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒　震中位置φN/°　　　　λE/°震级ML震　中0 12 0 0 1- 10 -…     

2001年1月首都圈地区ML≥2.0地震动态

根据中国地震局地球物理研究所四室提供的资料 ,2 0 0 1年 1月首都圈地区 (38.0°～ 41 .0°N,1 1 3.0°～ 1 2 0 .0°E)共发生 ML≥ 2 .0地震 1 3次 (见表 1 ) ,其中 ML≥ 4.0地震 1次 ,即 1月 3日 0 5时31分发生在丰南的 ML 4.0地震 ,该地震是本月最显著的事件。本月地震频度与 2 0 0 0年 1 2月相比持平 ,震中主要分布在首都圈东部。能量释放东部地区较强 ,如果不考虑余震 ,首都圈 3个地区 (东、中和西部 )发震频次基本相等表 1　 2 0 0 1年 1月首都圈地区 ML≥ 2 .0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒　震中位置φN/°　　 λE…     

2001年9月首都圈地区ML≥2.0地震动态

根据中国地震局地球物理研究所四室提供的资料 ,2 0 0 1年 9月首都圈地区 ( 3 8.0°～ 41 .0°N,1 1 3 .0°～ 1 2 0 .0°E)共发生 ML≥ 2 .0地震 1 6次 (见表 1 ) ,其中 ML≥ 3 .0地震有 3次 ,1 9日 1 6时 0 7分发生在渤海的 ML≥ 4.7有感地震为本月最显著的事件。首都圈本月地震活动强度和上 2个月相当 ,频度与 3月相当 ,能量释放比 3月略高。震中主要分布在首都圈东区 (唐山与渤海地区 ) ,东区小震活动频次高于中区和西区 ,本月唐山地区和渤海海域地震能量释放有较明显的增强。表 1　 2 0 0 1年 9月首都圈地区 ML≥ 2 .0地震序号发　…     

地震趋势分析法在台湾地区的应用

在北纬 2 1°～ 2 6° ,东经 119°～ 12 3°内 ,依据板块运动、地体构造界线、活动断层分析和强震震中分布四个因素 ,绘制台湾地区的地震地体构造区分图 ;将台湾地区分成东西两个地震区 ;E1～E4、W1～W4等共八个地震带。根据强震幕式分析、地震活动性水平分析、地震频次与缺震异常分析和空区与条带分析四个地震趋势分析步骤 ,分析 2 0 0 1年和 2 0 0 2年台湾地区的中强地震趋势。实际地震结果表明 ,这种地震趋势分析方法在台湾地区有非常好的应用效果。     

2001年8月首都圈地区ML≥2.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 1年 8月首都圈地区 ( 3 8.0°～ 41 .0°N,1 1 3 .0°～1 2 0 .0°E)共发生 ML≥ 2 .0地震 1 7次 (见表 1 ) ,ML≥ 3 .0地震有 3次 ,3 0日 2 1时 0 9分发生在滦县的 ML 3 .3地震为本月最显著的事件。首都圈本月地震活动强度较上两个月有所回升 ,频度与 3月相当 ,能量释放略低于 3月 ,震中分布在首都圈东区和中区基本相当 ;东区小震活动频次略高于中区和西区。本月唐山地区地震能量释放有较明显的增强。表 1　 2 0 0 1年 8月首都圈地区 ML≥ 2 .0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒　…     

2002年7月华北地区ML≥3.0地震动态

根据中国地震局分析预报中心提供的资料 ,2 0 0 2年 7月华北地区 (3 3 .0°～ 42 .0°N,111.0°～12 5 .0°E)共发生 ML≥ 3 .0地震 9次 (见表 1) ,2 3日 2 0时 48分黄海 (3 5 .6°N,12 2 .3°E) ML 5 .1地震是本月最显著的事件。本月地震频度远高于上月 ,参考 1992年以来的月平均地震频次 ,7月处于中等水平 ,地震活动月能量释放处于中等偏低状态 ,震中主要分布在华北地区东部。表 1　 2 0 0 2年 7月华北地区 ML≥ 3.0地震序号发　震　时　刻　　年月日时分秒　震中位置φN/°　　　　λE/°震级ML震　中0 12 0 0 2 - 0 7- 0 8T 0 5- …     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.