天气尺度扰动流场对区域暴雨的指示能力

观测的大气流场可以物理分解为气候流场、行星尺度纬圈平均扰动流场和天气尺度扰动流场.低层大气的天气尺度扰动流场中的切变线、南方气旋、北方气旋、冷锋槽线、西南涡暖切变线、热带气旋、倒槽切变线、东风波切变线等对区域暴雨具有指示意义.扰动流场中的环流系统更适合天气分析的原理.中国的暴雨带多为扰动辐合线两侧气流对峙的结果.观测流场中,暴雨带出现在低空急流的左侧,是因为气候流场掩盖或削弱了天气尺度扰动流场的作用.对切变线暴雨,天气尺度扰动流场有99%的诊断能力,而原始流场只有66%的指示能力.     

f-平面中尺度海盆热力驱动边界流的形成

采用一个f-平面准地转但未作线性化假定的惯性模型, 考虑了西侧固壁附近摩擦层的作用, 在热量守恒条件下, 研究了理想化的长方体海盆区域内的扰动温度、边界急流及上升(下沉)流. 设研究区域上表面有净的热量输入, 相应的西侧边界有等量的热量耗散, 其余边界与外界无热量交换, 从而整个海域海水热量守恒. 结果表明, 在西侧边界扰动温度密集出现温度锋; 扰动压力及流场存在上下层翻转现象, 下层西侧为向北的沿岸急流, 扰动压力极大值中心位于西部, 上层东侧为向南的急流, 扰动压力极大值中心位于东部. 西侧较窄的范围内出现较强的垂向流, 中部区域也有较大的垂向运动. 文中还研究了不同形式的上表面热力强迫的影响, 结果表明对于不同形式的上边界热力强迫, 均可在海盆西侧出现扰动温度密集, 边界急流, 亦有上下层流场的翻转现象, 但垂向流的分布则有很大不同.     

基于CloudSat资料的北上江淮气旋暴雪云系结构特征

2007年3月3-5日和2013年11月24-25日，受江淮气旋北上影响，我国北方大部地区遭遇罕见暴风雪天气，2次暴雪过程有很多相似之处.利用常规观测、CloudSat卫星云廓线雷达的探测资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料，分析了这2次暴雪过程江淮气旋云系结构和微物理特征.结果表明：（1）北上江淮气旋的冷锋云系较窄，以深厚对流云为主，回波核心在2~7 km，其结构在气旋发展的不同阶段变化不大；（2）逗点头云系范围宽广，在气旋的不同发展阶段，结构和强度有显著差异.气旋初始锋面波动和锋面断裂阶段，逗点头云系有两个降水区：北部为由多个单体组成的大范围层状云区，强回波从地表向上伸展，上空有高空对流泡，建立了播撒云-供水云机制，有利于下部冰晶粒子长大；南部有对流云柱发展.逗点头西部的冷输送带云系主要集中在6 km以下，强度弱，冰粒子含量少；（3）气旋暖锋后弯阶段，干侵入加强，冷锋后部的无云区或少云区范围扩大，逗点头云系南北范围收缩、变窄，云系的高度、强度和含水量减弱，冷锋云系也减弱；（4）气旋冷锋云系和逗点头南部的对流云柱以降雨为主，位于高纬度陆地上的逗点头云系以降雪为主，当逗点头云系处于海上有对流不稳定发展，以降雨为主.冷锋云系北部和逗点头云系南部均有由层积云或高积云组成的低云，以毛毛雨为主.冷锋云系和逗点头云系北部100-200 km的范围为随高度和距离逐渐变薄的高层云，无降水对应.     

地表拖曳对斜压波地面锋生的影响

利用三维非静力中尺度数值模式MM5模拟了干湿大气条件中纬度典型斜压波及其锋面系统的生成与演变过程, 重点讨论地表拖曳对干、湿大气中地面锋结构、锋生过程的影响作用. 研究结果表明, 在干大气中, 地表拖曳力对地面锋锋生具有双向作用, 一方面是锋消作用, 主要体现在地表拖曳力减慢地面锋锋生、地面斜压波系统发展; 另一方面, 地表拖曳力导致强的非地转流形成, 从而延长了冷锋锋生过程维持时间, 有利于冷锋强度增大. 同时地表拖曳力可以造成边界层内锋面近乎垂直于地面, 导致锋前垂直运动增强, 这些结果进一步推广了谈哲敏和伍荣生的理论结果. 在湿大气中, 地表拖曳过程对锋面雨带分布有重要的影响作用, 地表拖曳力可减缓对流上 升, 从而导致地表能量的耗散减缓. 当大气低层湿度较小时, 对流不是很强, 地表拖曳力可减缓地表水汽、能量的迅速耗散, 且在锋后边界层中产生摩擦辐合上升区, 这些上升区可逐渐东移到冷锋前, 补偿了锋前上升带的强度, 有利于冷锋降水的维持. 当大气低层湿度场很强时, 对流发展比较旺盛, 此时地表拖曳对低层水汽与能量的束缚作用相对较弱, 相应地表拖曳对锋面及其降水系统影响较小.     

风垂直切变对大气静力适应过程的影响——第一部分:波动响应

本文基于描述可压缩大气静力适应过程的线性模型,分别采用正交模法和WKBJ法,从波动响应的角度研究了风垂直切变对大气静力适应过程的影响.结合实际天气现象构造了四种风垂直切变模型,分别为垂直无切变的定常模型、类似锋面特征的线性切变模型、表征东风急流的反气旋式切变模型和类似西风急流的气旋式切变模型.分析了相应模型下静力适应过程中的波动特征及波能量演变规律.得到结论:(1)在定常模型中,破坏静力平衡的能量激发出四支两两成对的、传播性质类似声波和重力波的波动,波动能量在闭合系统假设下为守恒量;(2)风切变的存在改变了波动及其能量的传播特征,也改变了波动能量的守恒性;(3)在大气稳定层结下,若波动多普勒频率大于0且小于0.7倍的浮力振荡频率,则发展(衰亡)型波动的螺旋结构分别为:(a)在线性切变模型中,等相位线自下而上需向西(东)倾斜;(b)在反气旋式切变模型中,等相位线在急流轴上层自下而上需向西(东)倾斜,在急流轴下层自下而上需向东(西)倾斜;(c)在气旋式切变模型中,等相位线在急流轴上层自下而上需向东(西)倾斜,在急流轴下层自下而上需向西(东)倾斜;若波动多普勒频率大于0.7倍的浮力振荡频率,则情形相反.     

风的垂直切变对滞弹性大气中静力适应过程的影响

本文基于描写滞弹性大气静力适应过程的线性方程组，从波动频散关系、气团运动规律和能量转换的角度出发，研究了水平基流及其垂直切变对该模式大气静力适应过程的影响.构造四种水平基流垂直分布模型进行比较，分别为常数型、线性切变型、反气旋切变型和气旋切变型，得到结论：（1）具有重力波性质的波动是滞弹性大气静力适应过程中扰动能量传播的方式，当垂直折射指数大于零时，基本气流及其垂直切变的存在，不仅改变了波动频率的大小，而且改变波动传播的方向；（2）在静力适应过程中气块的运动轨迹呈椭圆形，水平基流及其垂直切变影响椭圆的扁率，同时也影响扰动物理量之间的偏振关系；（3）水平基流的垂直切变是扰动能量和水平基流能量发生转换的媒介，当存在垂直向上的动量输送时，正的垂直风切变对应扰动能量的衰减，水平基流能量的增加，负的垂直风切变对应扰动能量的增加，水平基流能量的衰减；（4）不同的风的垂直切变模型，对静力适应过程的影响不同；对于水平基流呈反气旋切变型和气旋切变型，扰动发展的波动垂直结构为，急流轴上方波动等相位线自下而上向西倾斜，急流轴下方波动等相位线自下而上向东倾斜，反之亦然.     

强迫和惯性不稳定对流发展在印度夏季风爆发过程中的作用

利用NCEP/NCAR R1再分析资料,分析了阿拉伯海上空对流层低层惯性不稳定现象对印度夏季风爆发过程的影响,揭示了纬向地转动量的纬向平流在惯性不稳定中的重要作用.研究表明,在印度夏季风爆发过程中,由于强烈的跨赤道气压梯度,对流层低层的绝对涡度零线(η=0)在阿拉伯海南部上空自赤道向北推进,从而在北半球近赤道区域形成负绝对涡度区,该区域表现出明显的自由惯性不稳定.在摩擦作用下,当气流自南向北通过这一区域时,在绝对涡度零线北侧出现低层辐合中心,有利于低纬度对流发展.然而这种经典的惯性不稳定对流只出现在近赤道地区,对印度季风爆发的直接影响不明显.另一方面在η=0线北侧海平面低压中心南部,尽管该区域大气处于惯性稳定状态,低空西风气流的发展造成明显的纬向地转动量的纬向平流.理论和诊断分析表明,该纬向地转动量平流与南北方向海陆热力差异沿着纬圈非均匀分布密切相关,它引起低空辐合中心出现在印度大陆西南海岸低空急流附近及其北侧,为印度夏季风爆发提供有利的低空环流条件.说明春末夏初阿拉伯海地区低层对流的发展除了受摩擦惯性不稳定影响外,更受到海陆热力差异纬向分布不均匀的强烈影响.此外,在印度夏季风爆发前,对流层高层的南亚高压东伸发展,将中纬度高位涡输送到阿拉伯海上空,形成局地"喇叭口"状流场,产生明显的高空抽吸作用,为夏季风的爆发推进提供了有利的高空背景条件.当其与南北海陆热力对比的纬向差异所强迫的低空辐合中心在印度大陆西南海岸附近垂直耦合引起大气斜压不稳定发展时,激发了印度夏季风爆发.     

非对称型强飓风中的准平衡流特征分析

本文在论述飓风发生发展生命史过程中平衡、准平衡和非平衡态动力学特征的基础上,应用PV-ω方法,对具有非轴对称和长时间强度维持特征的飓风Bonnie（1998）进行了反演诊断分析,结果表明：基于非线性平衡模式的平衡流能够描述飓风水平涡旋场的基本特征,而加入准平衡ω方程得到的准平衡流能反映边界层入流、高层出流、眼墙区的剧烈倾斜上升运动和眼心区域的下沉运动.准平衡流描述了具有较长生命史组织化过程的强对流系统,而与其相联系的辐散运动与涡度同量级,证明了飓风准平衡流场具有涡散运动共存的特征,但在边界层顶的入流急流区和高层出流区仍存在高度非平衡态的超梯度流.利用反演的准平衡流场分析发现,当由环境风场低层到高层存在顺切变时,飓风内中尺度对流带移动方向的左侧,有利于强对流单体的发展和新对流单体的形成,右侧则相反,同时强气旋式旋转流场的作用,使得对流单体形成后随基本气流传播至对流减弱区,造成了飓风非对称结构的形成和维持.     

北大西洋涛动与西北太平洋热带气旋频数关系的年代际变化

基于观测资料分析,研究了夏季北大西洋涛动与西北太平洋热带气旋频数之间的关系,发现两者的联系呈现由弱转强的年代际变化特征.1948~1977年,北大西洋涛动与西北太平洋热带气旋频数的联系较弱;但1980~2009年,两者转为显著的正相关,北大西洋涛动偏强(弱)对应西北太平洋热带气旋数偏多(少).本文进一步从大气环流变化角度,探讨了北大西洋涛动与西北太平洋热带气旋频数的关系在前后两个时段出现不同的可能原因.结果表明,在后一时段,当北大西洋涛动偏强时,西北太平洋低层为异常气旋型环流,季风槽加强,西太平洋副热带高压偏东,西北太平洋地区高层大气异常辐散,低层大气异常辐合,这些条件均有利于热带气旋的生成和发展,西北太平洋热带气旋因此偏多.然而,在前一时段,北大西洋涛动对上述环流系统的影响不明显,因而减弱了北大西洋涛动与西北太平洋热带气旋频数的联系.研究进一步揭示,与北大西洋涛动异常相关联的波活动通量的变化可以解释北大西洋涛动与西北太平热带气旋频数联系的这种年代际变化.     

“6·23”江苏阜宁EF4级龙卷超级单体风暴中尺度结构研究

2016年6月23日14—15时，江苏省阜宁县突遭"增强藤田"4级龙卷、强风、短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气，致使99人罹难，800多人受伤，属极其罕见的极端天气事件.本文利用加密自动站数据、探空数据、单部雷达观测数据以及双多普勒雷达三维风场反演数据，研究了此次龙卷发生的天气背景、龙卷超级单体的三维结构及其演变特征.研究表明：（1）龙卷发生期间，阜宁处于地面暖湿舌内、地面有γ中尺度气旋和辐合线；环境大气抬升凝结高度很低、中低层有很强的水平风的垂直切变；这有利于龙卷的生成.（2）此次龙卷超级单体左移风暴的低层有钩状回波和入流缺口，有界弱回波区位于垂直剖面中低层、悬垂回波位于风暴前部高层.（3）龙卷发生前，风暴质心高度、最大反射率因子高度和风暴回波顶高度均持续增加，风暴垂直累积液态含水量激增；龙卷发生在上述参数的数值首次同时减小时.（4）双多普勒雷达反演的三维风场揭示，超级单体形成之前的对流风暴内部中低层已经有中尺度气旋形成，中尺度气旋伴随着超级单体的生成、发展和强化的各个阶段.中尺度气旋位于钩状回波顶端、其南端有反气旋，此涡旋偶对于中层动量下传、龙卷生成、发展、加强和触地具有重要作用.     

Simulation of the time-space evolution of an extratropical cyclonic precipitation field over USA

The time-space evolution of an extratropical cyclonic precipitation field over U S A is simulated in a stochastic setting as outlined in Kavvas et al. (1988). The birth of a cyclonic storm is characterized by the simultaneous birth of a cyclone center and births of subsynoptic precipitation areas (SPA) at preferred locations around the cyclone center. The precipitation cores and cells which are used as the fundamental building blocks of the SPAs are approximated by circular precipitation areas (CPA) of different sizes. The time space evolution of the precipitation field after the birth is governed by (1) the movement of the synoptic cyclone described by the cyclone center trajectory, (2) independent nonidentically distributed random velocities of the individual CPAs relative to the cyclone center, (3) the births of new CPAs in time and space relative to the cyclone center, (4) the independent evolution in time of the individual spatially uniform intensities of the existing CPAs, (5) the expansion and shrinkage of the existing CPAs in the course of movement and (6) the dissipation (death) of a random number of existing CPAs within the cyclonic system. The computer simulation, the results of which are presented in this paper, successfully reproduced the general mesoscale and synoptic scale features of the radar detected cyclonic rain fields as observed by Austin and Houze (1972), Houze et al. (1976), Hobbs (1978), Hobbs and Locatelli (1978), Houze (1981), Houze and Hobbs (1982) and others.     

Numerical simulations of mesoscale variability in the Straits of Florida

The circulation in the Straits of Florida is dominated by the throughflow of the Florida Current, as modified by tidal flows, responses to atmospheric cold front and extratropical cyclone (easterly wave and tropical cyclone) passages in winter (summer), and intrinsic mesoscale variability due to instabilities of the Florida Current front and jet system. Monthly meanders of the Florida Current, persistent oceanic fronts associated with the Florida Current’s baroclinic jet, and frontal eddies shed weekly by the Florida Current are the primary mesoscale features. A limited area model (Princeton Ocean Model: POM) is implemented to cover the Straits of Florida with a curvilinear grid that resolves the mesoscale structure, especially where the baroclinic flow is locked to steep topography in a 90 degree bend of the Straits. Florida Current cyclonic frontal eddies are spawned spontaneously, grow as they translate downstream, interact with shelf waters, and exhibit the same space-time attributes that characterize their observed counterparts, as evidenced by satellite imagery, shipboard synoptic mapping, coastal HF radar, and moored time series. Here, a deeper understanding is attempted for the frontal eddy kinematics and dynamics by examining, for example, their sensitivity to model parameter values, synoptic versus monthly atmospheric forcing, and other determinants of the flow. The mean flow shears are concentrated along the shelfbreak, where these frontal eddies are trapped, favoring the formation of the eddies by mean flow instabilities. In particular, it is found that the Florida Current frontal eddies exist independent of the wind-forcing considered (i.e., no winds, monthly winds, and synoptic (but not mesoscale) winds); however, they are modulated by the synoptic wind-forcing. Nevertheless, intriguingly, the frontal eddies have the same weekly time scale as the weather cycle.     

Formation of the thermal-driven boundary jet in an f-plane mesoscale basin

The paper adopts an f-plane quasi-geostrophic inertial model without linearization to investigate the perturbation temperature, boundary jet and upwelling (downwelling) in an idealized rectangular basin, under the consideration of west side friction layer and heat conservation. There is net heat input on the upper surface and equal quality heat dissipation on the west boundary, and without heat exchange on other boundaries, then the heat is conservation in the whole basin. Results show that there is thermal front due to denseness of the perturbation temperature in the west side boundary, the perturbation pressure and flow field are reversal on the upper layer and bottom layer. On the bottom layer, the west coastal current is northward, and the maximum perturbation pressure center is on the west, however, on the upper layer, the east coastal current is southward, and the maximum perturbation pressure center is on the east. There is strong vertical flow in narrow western boundary layer, and also in the central zone. The effect of different upper thermal forcings is also studied, and it can be concluded that there is always temperature denseness and boundary jet near the west boundary, and the appearance of flow field reversal, but the distribution of vertical flow is rather different.     

Analytical modelling of wintertime coastal jets in the Adriatic Sea

Two diagnostic models, reproducing circulation generated in a marginal sea by variable density, have been developed. The models’ domain is a 2D transverse section for which analytical solutions have been obtained. They describe the winter situation in the northern Adriatic, with a strong vertical mixing present and the density maximum dominating the centre of the basin. Both models employ Boussinesq-type parametrisation of friction and linear slip at the bottom. The first model allows for frictional departure from hydrostatic equilibrium and includes vertical friction only. The second one is hydrostatic but allows for lateral friction as well. The results obtained by the two models are similar and to some extent dependent on the vertical and bottom friction. They reproduce several well known characteristics of the Adriatic circulation (cyclonic surface flow, downwelling in the central and larger part of the basin compensated by upwelling in the coastal zone) but also predict some phenomena that are still not well understood. A conspicuous feature of the model results are coastal jets, which were observed in the Adriatic on several occasions. The present models show that the distance of jets from the coasts depends on lateral friction: it is found to vary from 1 up to 10 km on the Italian side and between 2 and 15 km on the Croatian side. Both models reproduce the west–east asymmetry, with the wider current on the east side of the basin. The asymmetry is a subject on which conflicting empirical results exist in the Adriatic. In the two models cyclonic flow occupies the whole water column, which disagrees with some recent theoretical findings of the near-bottom anticyclonic flow and thus leaves the issue open.     

东亚副热带高空急流区中尺度扰动分布特征及可能机理

东亚副热带高空急流强度变化和天气气候密切相关,本文利用WRF模式输出的高时空分辨率模拟资料研究了东亚副热带高空急流区的中尺度扰动特征,并结合动力学理论,揭示了急流区中尺度扰动产生的可能机制.研究表明,急流轴南侧更容易出现水平尺度为几十公里的高频扰动,这些扰动的时空分布具有波动特征.对高空急流区中出现中尺度扰动区域的拉格朗日Rossby数、Richardson数以及绝对涡度的计算发现,高空急流轴南侧中尺度扰动出现的物理机制与非地转平衡流的不稳定发展有关,并且高空急流强度的大尺度整体变化与急流区中尺度扰动变化的累积效应有关.因此,开展高空急流强度变化规律研究不能忽视其内部中尺度动力过程的作用.     

Solitary Rossby Waves in Zonally Varying Jet Flows

The dynamics of solitary Rossby waves (SRWs) embedded in a meridionally sheared, zonally varying background flow are examined using a non-divergent barotropic model centered on a midlatitude g -plane. The zonally varying background flow, which is produced by an external potential vorticity (PV) forcing, yields a modified Korteweg-de Vries (K-dV) equation that governs the spatial-temporal evolution of a disturbance field that contains both Rossby wave packets and SRWs. The modified K-dV equation differs from the classical equation in that the zonally varying background flow, which varies on the same scale as the disturbance field, directly affects the disturbance linear translation speed and linear growth characteristics. In the limit of a locally parallel background flow, equations governing the amplitude and propagation characteristics of SRWs are derived analytically. These equations show, for example, that a sufficiently large (small) translation speed and/or a sufficiently weak (strong) background zonal shear favor transmission (reflection) of the SRW through (from) the jet. Conservation equations are derived showing that time changes in the domain averaged amplitude ("mass") or squared amplitude ("momentum") are due to zonal variation in both the linear, long-wave phase speed and linear growth; dispersion and nonlinearity do not affect the "mass" or "momentum". Provided (1) the background PV forcing is sufficiently small, or (2) the background PV forcing is meridionally symmetric and the disturbance is a SRW, the dynamics of the disturbance field is Hamiltonian and mass and energy are thus conserved. Numerical solutions of the K-dV equation show that the zonally varying background flow yields three general classes of behavior: reflection, transmission, or trapping. Within each class there exists SRWs and Rossby wave packets. SRWs that become trapped within the zonally localized jet region may exhibit the following behaviors: (1) an oscillatory decay to a steady state at the jet center, (2) the creation of additional SRWs within the jet region, or (3) a steady-state wherein the solution has a smoothed step-like structure located downstream along the jet axis.     

Prediction and assessment of the disturbances of the coal mining in Kailuan to karst groundwater system

Coal resources and water resources play an essential and strategic role in the development of China's social and economic development, being the priority for China's medium and long technological development. As the mining of the coal extraction is increasingly deep, the mine water inrush of high-pressure confined karst water becomes much more a problem. This paper carried out research on the hundred-year old Kailuan coal mine's karst groundwater system. With the help of advanced Visual Modflow software and numerical simulation method, the paper assessed the flow field of karst water area under large-scale exploitation. It also predicted the evolution ofgroundwaterflow field under different mining schemes of Kailuan Corp. The result shows that two cones of depression are formed in the karst flow field of Zhaogezhuang mining area and Tangshan mining area, and the water levels in two cone centers are −270 m and −31 m respectively, and the groundwater generally flows from the northeast to the southwest. Given some potential closed mines in the future, the mine discharge will decrease and the water level of Ordovician limestone will increase slightly. Conversely, given increase of coal yield, the mine drainage will increase, falling depression cone of Ordovician limestone flow field will enlarge. And in Tangshan's urban district, central water level of the depression cone will move slightly towards north due to pumping of a few mines in the north.     

An enhanced depth-averaged tidal model for morphological studies in the presence of rotary currents

A simple and efficient method to improve morphological predictions using depth-averaged tidal models is presented. The method includes the contribution of secondary flows in sediment transport using the computed flow field from a depth-averaged model. The method has been validated for a case study using the 3D POLCOMS model and ADCP data. The enhanced depth-averaged tidal model along with the SWAN wave model are applied to morphological prediction around the Lleyn Peninsula and Bardsey Island as a case study in the Irish Sea. Due to the presence of a headland in this area two asymmetrical tidal eddies are developed in which the cyclonic eddy is stronger as a result of Coriolis effects. The results show that the enhanced model can effectively predict formation of sand banks at the centre of cyclonic eddies, while the depth-averaged model, due to its inability to accommodate secondary flow, is inadequate in this respect.