2017年全球活动火山时空分布以及阿贡火山喷发前后的形变特征

归纳总结2017年度全球81座活火山的活动情况,共计活动1058座次,平均每周记录20座活火山的活动信息。根据火山潜在喷发的危险性和火山活动的强弱程度对上述火山进行分级描述,火山活动主要反映了地球表层的构造活动,其中大角度俯冲带的弧后火山最为强烈,小角度的俯冲带、拉张裂谷和走滑为主的板块边界火山活动较为平静,火山活动频繁的印度尼西亚岛链是受灾最为严重的区域。预计全球火山活动将进一步加剧,印尼岛链受火山灾害威胁的程度依然较大。位于印尼岛链巴厘岛上的阿贡火山自2017年9月开始活动以来,整个喷发过程极具代表性,监测阿贡火山喷发过程可为全球典型火山喷发事件研究提供参考。     

中国火山危险性等级与活动性分类

介绍了中国大陆全新世活动火山喷发危险性的评价与活动性分类。火山喷发危险性评价是进行火山活动性分类的基础,参照国外火山活动度水平与火山警报等级,根据火山动力背景特征与火山前兆异常特征确定了中国火山喷发危险性评价等级,它们是安全、注意、警惕、警报、危险、灾害、灾难等7级。根据火山活动的危险性,将中国火山的活动性分为4类:1)处于活动状态的火山——长白山天池火山,已经进入扰动期;2)有活动迹象的火山——腾冲火山,仍然处于平静状态,存在潜在的喷发危险;3)有潜在活动可能的火山,包括五大连池、镜泊湖与海口火山,各种地球物理、地球化学观察都处于背景值范围;4)活动性不明的火山     

长白山天池火山潜在喷发危险性讨论

根据吉林省新生代以来火山喷溢活动的时空演化历史，特别是全新世以来火山活动频民强度变化特征，以及现代喷发活动史记资料，结合１０多年火山动态观测数据，讨论了长白山天池潜在喷发的危险程度，认为其灾害性潜在喷发危险的时间尺度仍属于地质范畴。     

长白山天池火山减灾对策初探

国内外专家学者认为，长白山天池火山是一座具潜在灾害性喷发危险的活火山，因此制定火山减灾对策理应提到议事日程。针对天池火山研究现状和火山灾害特点，制定了火山活动各阶段的减灾对策。中长期阶段应加强火山监测与研究和火山知识宣传工作，采取必要的工程防护措施，重大工程进行火山安全性评价，制定火山喷发应急预案；短期阶段请求国际火山流动监测台网给予支援；临近喷发阶段重点是有组织的撤离；喷发及其后阶段应及时救灾抢险，对火山喷发趋势进行科学判定，合理地重建家园。     

2022年10—12月全球火山活动简报

<正>0全球火山活动概况2022年10—12月全球共有67座火山出现活动,其中,警戒级别Ⅰ级的火山15座,警戒级别Ⅱ级的火山21座,警戒级别Ⅲ级的火山27座,警戒级别Ⅳ级的火山4座(表1)。从空间分布上看,绝大多数活动火山位于环太平洋火山带上,少数分布在地中海火山带西南段,个别活动火山处于板块交汇处和板块内部(图1);从分布国家来看,活动火山多集中在美国、俄罗斯、印度尼西亚、日本等国;“一带一路”沿线有7座火山出现活动,其中,印度尼西亚5座,意大利2座。2022年10—12月全球火山活动水平有所减弱,     

长白山火山活动的现状和未来展望

长白山天池火山是中新世以来,特别是中更新世以来多次喷发并造成严重灾害的火山,是一座具有潜在喷发危险性的活动火山,文章主要阐述了全新世和近代火山活动及其喷发物,并对火山的现代活动与未来火山活动及其灾害作了评估。     

全球地震、火山分布及其变化特征

地震和火山都反映了地球表层的构造活动,因而地震活动区往往也是火山活动区。根据全球大震、火山活动目录,分析研究了全球地震、火山分布的特征。描述了各区的地震、火山活动分布,总结了地震、火山活动强度的时、空分布特征。全球地震、火山活动可以分为碰撞带、大陆区和大洋区。大陆地震以其片状的分散分布而不同于板块边缘的带状分布,大陆火山活动比大洋火山更受应力场的影响。大洋区地震活动相对较弱,岩浆活动主要是平静的岩浆溢出与洋中脊的扩张,往往没有形成火山喷发。有记录的火山喷发主要来自深部地幔的热柱。俯冲-碰撞活动区地震活动与火山喷发最强烈,大角度俯冲的弧后火山活动最强,当板块运动方向与板块边缘走向成小角度相交时,缺少正面俯冲的动力,火山活动相对平静。>500km深震的地段,火山活动较弱。火山与地震强烈活动的大多在大地水准面(Geoid)异常高的区域。地震与火山平均纬度随时间表现出同步的变化外,火山和大震活动也显示了大致同步的变化     

2023年7—9月全球火山活动简报

<正>0全球火山活动概况2023年7—9月全球共有63座火山出现活动,其中,警戒级别Ⅰ级的火山15座,警戒级别Ⅱ级的火山23座,警戒级别Ⅲ级的火山25座,无警戒级别Ⅳ级的火山(表1)。从空间分布上看,绝大多数活动火山位于环太平洋火山链上,少数分布在印度洋板块与欧亚板块碰撞带上,个别活动火山处于其他板块交界地带、板块内部(图1)。从国家分布来看,活动火山多集中在美国、印度尼西亚、日本等国,     

腾冲火山地质研究述评

在综合分析前人有关腾冲火山研究成果的基础上，对该区火山活动的研究现状，火山活动特征，火山活动背景及火山活动与深部岩浆侵入活动的关系等进行了评述。认为腾冲火山群中存在全新世活火山，现今处于休眠状态，具有再次喷发的潜在危险性，因此，进一步深入研究腾冲火山在全新世活动的时间分布规律，对于在该区开展火山活动监测，减灾防灾等方面具有重要意义。     

长白山天池火山——一座具潜在喷发危险的近代火山

通过对长白山天池火山近代喷发历史、喷发规模、喷发物类型的调查和研究,提出该火山是一座具潜在喷发危险的大型近代活动火山.建议开展对该火山的动态监测和系统研究.     

Introducing the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI): a tool to quantify and communicate the intensity of volcanic unrest

Accurately observing and interpreting volcanic unrest phenomena contributes towards better forecasting of volcanic eruptions, thus potentially saving lives. Volcanic unrest is recorded by volcano observatories and may include seismic, geodetic, degassing and/or geothermal phenomena. The multivariate datasets are often complex and can contain a large amount of data in a variety of formats. Low levels of unrest are frequently recorded, causing the distinction between background activity and unrest to be blurred, despite the widespread usage of these terms in unrest literature (including probabilistic eruption-forecasting models) and in Volcanic Alert Level (VAL) systems. Frequencies and intensities of unrest episodes are not easily comparable over time or between volcanoes. Complex unrest information is difficult to communicate simply to civil defence personnel and other non-scientists. The Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI) is presented here to address these issues. The purpose of the VUI is to provide a semi-quantitative rating of unrest intensity relative to each volcano’s past level of unrest and to that of analogous volcanoes. The VUI is calculated using a worksheet of observed phenomena. Ranges for each phenomenon within the worksheet can be customised for individual volcanoes, as demonstrated in the companion paper for Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand (Potter et al. 2015). The VUI can be determined retrospectively for historical episodes of unrest based on qualitative observations, as well as for recent episodes with state-of-the-art monitoring. This enables a long time series of unrest occurrence and intensity to be constructed and easily communicated to end users. The VUI can also assist with VAL decision-making. We present and discuss two approaches to the concept of unrest.     

Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region     

Volcanogenic Tsunamis in Lakes: Examples from Nicaragua and General Implications

This paper emphasizes the fact that tsunamis can occur in continental lakes and focuses on tsunami triggering by processes related to volcanic eruptions and instability of volcanic edifices. The two large lakes of Nicaragua, Lake Managua and Lake Nicaragua, host a section of the Central American Volcanic Arc including several active volcanoes. One case of a tsunami in Lake Managua triggered by an explosive volcanic eruption is documented in the geologic record. However, a number of events occurred in the past at both lakes which were probably tsunamigenic. These include massive intrusion of pyroclastic flows from Apoyo volcano as well as of flank-collapse avalanches from Mombacho volcano into Lake Nicaragua. Maar-forming phreatomagmatic eruptions, which repeatedly occurred in Lake Managua, are highly explosive phenomena able to create hugh water waves as was observed elsewhere. The shallow water depth of the Nicaraguan lakes is discussed as the major limiting factor of tsunami amplitude and propagation speed. The very low-profile shores facilitate substantial in-land flooding even of relatively small waves. Implications for conceiving a possible warning system are also discussed.     

Seismicity and crustal deformation preceding the January 1996 eruptions at Karymsky Volcanic Center,Kamchatka

Two explosive eruptions occurred on 2 January 1996 at Karymsky Volcanic Center (KVC) in Kamchatka, Russia: the first, dacitic, from the central vent of Karymsky volcano, and the second, several hours later, from Karymskoye lake in the caldera of Akademia Nauk volcano. The main significance of the 1996 volcanic events in KVC was the phreatomagmatic eruption in Karymskoye lake, which was the first eruption in this lake in historical time, and was a basaltic eruption at the acidic volcanic center. The volcanic events were associated with the 1 January Ms 6.7 (Mw 7.1) earthquake that occurred at a distance of about 9–17 km southeast from the volcanoes just before the eruptions. We study the long-term (1972–1995) and short-term (1–2 January 1996) characteristics of crustal deformations and seismicity before the double eruptive event in KVC. The 1972–1995 crustal deformation was homogeneous and characterized by a gradual extension with a steady velocity. The seismic activity in 1972–1995 developed at the depth interval from 0 to 20 km below the Akademia Nauk volcano and spread to the southeast along a regional fault. The seismic activity in January 1996 began with a short sequence of very shallow microearthquakes (M ~0) beneath Karymsky volcano. Then seismic events sharply increased in magnitude (up to mb 4.9) and moved along the regional fault to the southeast, culminating in the Ms 6.7 earthquake. Its aftershocks were located to the southeast and northwest from the main shock, filling the space between the two active volcanoes and the ancient basaltic volcano of Zhupanovsky Vostryaki. The eruption in Karymskoye lake began during the aftershock sequence. We consider that the Ms 6.7 earthquake opened the passageway for basic magma located below Zhupanovsky Vostryaki volcano that fed the eruption in Karymskoye lake.     

Volcanoes in the pre-Columbian life,legend, and archaeology of Costa Rica (Central America)

Costa Rica is located geographically in the southern part of the Central American Volcanic Front, a zone where interaction between the Mesoamerican and South American cultures occurred in pre-Columbian times. Several volcanoes violently erupted during the Holocene, when the first nomadic human hunters and later settlers were present. Volcanic rocks were the most important geo-resource in making artifacts and as construction materials for pre-Columbian inhabitants. Some pottery products are believed to resemble smoking volcanoes, and the settlements around volcanoes would seem to indicate their influence on daily life. Undoubtedly, volcanic eruptions disrupted the life of early settlers, particularly in the vicinity of Arenal and Irazú volcanoes, where archaeological remains show transient effects and displacement caused by periodical eruptions, but later resilient occupations around the volcanoes. Most native languages are extinct, with the exception of those presently spoken in areas far away from active volcanoes, where no words are related to volcanic phenomena or structures. The preserved legends are ambiguous, suggesting that they were either produced during the early Spanish conquest or were altered following the pre-Columbian period.     

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.     

Summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoi Volcano,Kamchatka in the early 21st century, 2003–2013

This paper is concerned with eruptions, seismicity, and deformation on Klyuchevskoi Volcano during the summit eruptions of 2012–2013, with the condition of the central crater during the eruptions, and with the effect that is exerted by the height of the lava in the crater on the start of the eruptions. The recurrence of eruptions in the North Volcanic Cluster (NVC), Kamchatka showed that all the four volcanoes in the cluster (Klyuchevskoi, Tolbachik, Shiveluch, and Bezymyannyi) become active during definite phases that were identified in the 18.6-year lunar cycle. This relationship of the NVC eruptions to the active phases in the 18.6-year lunar cycle, as well as the relationship to the 11-year solar activity, showed that eruptions can be predicted, yielding long-term estimates of activity for the NVC volcanoes. The short-term prediction of volcanic eruptions requires knowledge of seismicity and deformation that occur during the precursory period and during the occurrence of eruptions. Seismic activity during the summit eruptions of 2003–2013 took place in the depth range 20–25 km during repose periods of the volcano and at depths of 0–5 km in the volcanic edifice during the eruption. One notes an almost complete absence of any earthquakes at great depths during the summit eruptions. Volcanic tremor (VT) was recorded from the time that the eruptions began and continued to occur until the end. Geodetic measurements showed that the center of the magma pressure beneath the volcano during the parasitic and summit eruptions of 1979–1989 moved in the 4–17 km depth range, while during the summit eruptions of 2003–2013 the center moved in the 15–20 km range. These changes in the depth of the center of magma pressure may have been related to evacuation from shallow magma chambers.     

Intraglacial volcanism in the Western Volcanic Zone, Iceland

The Western Volcanic Zone in Iceland (64.19° to 65.22° N) has the morphological characteristics of a distinct Mid-Atlantic ridge segment. This volcanic zone was mapped at a scale of 1:36.000, and 258 intraglacial monogenetic volcanoes from the Late Pleistocene (0.01–0.78?Ma) were identified and investigated. The zone is characterized by infrequent comparatively large volcanic eruptions and the overall volcanic activity appears to have been low throughout the Late Pleistocene. Tholeiitic basaltic rocks dominate in the Western Volcanic Zone with about 0.5?vol.?% of intermediate and silicic rocks. The basalts divide into picrites, olivine tholeiites, and tholeiites. Three main eruptive phases can be distinguished in the intraglacial volcanoes: an effusive deep-water lava phase producing basal pillow lavas, an explosive shallow-water phase producing hyaloclastites and an effusive subaerial capping lava phase. Three evolutionary stages therefore charcterize these volcanoes; late dykes and irregular minor intrusions could be added as the fourth main stage. These intrusions are potential heat sources for short-lived hydrothermal systems and may play an important role in the final shaping of the volcanoes. Substantial parts of the hyaloclastites of each unit are proximal sedimentary deposits. The intraglacial volcanoes divide into two main morphological groups, ridge-shaped volcanoes, i.e., tindars (including pillow lava ridges) and subrectangular volcanoes, i.e., tuyas and hyaloclastite or pillow lava mounds. The volume of the tuyas is generally much larger than that of the tindars. The largest tuya, Eiríksj?kull, is about 48?km³ and therefore the largest known monogenetic volcano in Iceland. Many of the large volcanoes, both tuyas and tindars, show a similar, systematic range in geochemistry. The most primitive compositions were erupted first and the magmas then changed to more differentiated compositions. The ridge-shaped tindars clearly erupted from volcanic fissures and the more equi-dimensional tuyas mainly from a single crater. It is suggested that the morphology and structure of the intraglacial volcanos mainly depends on two factors, (a) tectonic control and (b) availability of magma at the time of eruption.     

Seismicity at Fuego,Pacaya, Izalco,and San Cristobal Volcanoes,Central America, 1973–1974

Seismic data collected at four volcanoes in Central America during 1973 and 1974 indicate three sources of seismicity: regional earthquakes with hypocentral distances greater than 80 km, earthquakes within 40 km of each volcano, and seismic activity originating at the volcanoes due to eruptive processes. Regional earthquakes generated by the underthrusting and subduction of the Cocos Plate beneath the Caribbean Plate are the most prominent seismic feature in Central America. Earthquakes in the vicinity of the volcanoes occur on faults that appear to be related to volcano formation. Faulting near Fuego and Pacaya volcanoes in Guatemala is more complex due to motion on a major E-W striking transform plate boundary 40 km north of the volcanoes. Volcanic activity produces different kinds of seismic signatures. Shallow tectonic or A-type events originate on nearby faults and occur both singly and in swarms. There are typically from 0 to 6 A-type events per day withb value of about 1.3. At very shallow depths beneath Pacaya, Izalco, and San Cristobal large numbers of low-frequency or B-type events are recorded with predominant frequencies between 2.5 and 4.5 Hz and withb values of 1.7 to 2.9. The relative number of B-type events appears to be related to the eruptive states of the volcanoes; the more active volcanoes have higher levels of seismicity. At Fuego Volcano, however, low-frequency events have unusually long codas and appear to be similar to tremor. High-amplitude volcanic tremor is recorded at Fuego, Pacaya, and San Cristobal during eruptive periods. Large explosion earthquakes at Fuego are well recorded at five stations and yield information on near-surface seismic wave velocities (α=3.0±0.2 km/sec.).