利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究

对某些类型的主震事件, 进行中短期预测也许是可能的. 利用Varnes, Bufe和Varnes提出的破裂时间法模拟前兆地震能量加速释放模型,通过实际观测资料与理论公式的拟合, 可以建立主地震事件的中短期预测技术, 用以确定表示主震的地点、时间和震级大小. 本文使用的是云南区域台网的地震目录资料，覆盖的时间段为1965~2002年. 统计分析表明，在此37年时间内，等于或大于2.5级地震资料是相当完整的. 本文对云南地区的30次主震事件进行了模拟，其中25次主震事件由前兆序列模拟得到的预测时间和震级与实际值相当接近，主震震级预测精度约0.57个震级单位，假定已知前兆序列中最后一次事件，则预测主震发生时间误差约0.64年.对另外的5次主震事件，由于没有足够的前兆事件来充分确定前兆能量加速曲线或是存在对能量加速释放曲线的干扰事件，而不能进行破裂时间法模拟.本文的研究结果还表明，由于云南是破坏性地震和中小地震活跃的地区，因此，主地震与前兆事件最佳搜索半径不存在明显的线性关系.主震矩与系数k，m之间存在强烈的相关性，利用主震地震矩与系数的关系和限制指数m的取值范围，可进一步缩小预测时间和预测震级的最佳拟合区范围，提高了模拟主震事件的预测精度. 本文采用破裂时间法对30次主震事件进行拟合，80％以上获得了较好的结果. 显示出该方法在预测已知主震事件序列的能力方面大有希望，因此，利用前兆事件对未来主震事件进行中短期预测的前景是令人鼓舞的.      

云南地区中强地震前应变释放特征

利用云南区域台网地震目录资料,以地震应变能作为地震释放量度,基于应变释放加速模型对前兆地震序列进行非线性模拟. 结果表明: 云南地区1966—2013年发生的115例M_S≥5.0地震中,具有加速特征的有79例,占69%;具有减速特征的有28例,占24%;数据太少无法判断加减速特征的有8例,占7%. 主震为孤立型的前兆地震序列,其减速或数据少类型所占比例远大于加速型;主震为走滑型的前兆序列,其加速型序列要比主震为正断型或逆冲型序列多15%左右. 搜索半径与前兆序列持续时间呈反比关系. 对前兆地震序列模拟结果表明,主震的预测震级和时间误差为±0.3和0.5年.      

地震应变加速释放模型在华东地区应用

根据华东地区的地震活动特点,定义较简单的半径搜索方法,遵循一定的准则挑选出1976年以来华东地区满足震前累积应变加速释放模型(ASR)的14次ML≥4.5地震序列。将破裂—时间分析法的非线性方程分成两个线性方程,采用线性最小二乘法拟合参数k/m与主震矩的经验关系,确定华东地区的ASR模型,并用来预测主震的时间和震级。经检验该方法预测震级误差约为±0.3,发震时间误差约±1.68 a。     

修正破裂时间法在南加州中期地震预测中的应用

基于南加州地震目录以及早先公布的新马德里地震带的连续地震记录。利用修正破裂时间法作为中晚期地震预测技术来预测未来主震的位置,震级和时间,对早先地震的预测表明,这个方法预测的主震震级误差近似于±０．５级,假定最后前兆事件已知,误差与破裂时间一致,接近±１．１年,当最后前兆事件未知,预测震级保持较小,但预测时间随着序列中事件的增加还需要修正,主震的位置也可以在半径数十公里量级的圆形区域中确认,为确定加     

江苏射阳5.1级地震的前兆性地震活动图象

1987年2月17日11时3分27秒,江苏省射阳县(北纬33°55′,东经120°32′)发生了M_s5.1地震,震源深度约18km。根据图1,该地震序列似应为前—主—余震型。但该序列中最大前震震级为M_s2.4,最大余震震级为M_s1.8,分别和主震震级相差2.7级和3.3级,主震释放能量占全序列释放总能量的99.99％。因此,我们主张称其为“接近孤立型的前—主—余震型序列。 从2月6日至2月17日主震发生前,位于震中区西南约35km处的大丰深井地震仪     

小江和曲江-石屏两断裂系统的构造动力学与强震序列的关联性

SN向小江断裂带与NW-NWW向曲江-石屏断裂带是云南地区两个相邻的活动断裂系统及强震发生带.为了了解它们的相互作用及其可能对地震发生的影响,基于活动构造、历史地震、重新定位的小震、GPS站速度与震源机制解等资料进行综合分析,结果表明：（1）小江断裂带西盘（川滇块体）的主动向南运动对曲江-石屏断裂带具有长期强烈的作用;后一断裂带以右旋走滑/剪切-横向缩短/逆冲变形的方式吸收与转换前一断裂带西盘的向南运动.（2）小江断裂带的现代左旋走滑/剪切变形速率由其北、中和中-南段的10～8mma-1减小到南段的4mma-1,速率减小的部分由曲江-石屏断裂带及其附近地区以逆-右旋走滑断层作用和分布式的右旋剪切与横向缩短变形进行调节.（3）小江与曲江-石屏断裂带的构造动力学关系还表现在它们地震活动的紧密关联上：1500～1850年期间小江断裂带及其以北的则木河断裂带完成了一个长达351a的强震、大地震发生序列,显示出应变逐渐加速释放、M≥7事件间隔逐渐缩短、大释放集中在序列中-后期等特征;作为对于这一序列的响应,曲江-石屏断裂带在滞后88a后,发生一个长达383a（1588～1970年）、具有相同加速释放与时间进程特征的强震与大地震序列.（4）至今,小江断裂带已有177a未发生M≥7地震,应注意并进一步研究该断裂带未来的强震与大地震危险性.     

2011年9月10日瑞昌—阳新4.6级地震的震源破裂特征与区域强震危险性

基于区域数字地震台网记录,采用HYPODD方法精确定位了2011年9月10日瑞昌—阳新地震序列的震源位置,采用CAP方法反演得到了4.6级主震的震源深度和震源机制解,并结合区域深度震相sPg、PmP和sPmP对主震震源深度进行了进一步确定,随后探讨了这次地震的震源破裂特征和所在区域的强震危险性.结果显示:瑞昌—阳新4.6级地震的震源深度为15±2 km,震源机制解为节面Ⅰ走向30°,倾角86°,滑动角-169°,节面Ⅱ走向299°,倾角79°,滑动角-4°,发震构造为郯城—庐江断裂带往震区延伸隐伏的瑞昌—武穴断裂;本次地震发生在长江中下游断块东部,所在区域的5.5级以上地震具有明显的成组活动特征,近期显著地震集中发生在郯城—庐江断裂带南段及其分支断裂上,地震能量有加速释放的趋势,未来十年左右该区域存在发生6级左右强震的可能性.     

青海及邻区地震序列h值震型判定与强余震预测研究

通过对青海及其周边28组记录相对完备的5.0级以上中强地震序列进行计算,得到各个序列h值随时间的变化趋势。结果显示:所有地震序列h值在主震发生后0~3天内波动变化较大,除个别地震序列外,h值在震后第8天开始趋于稳定;可根据h值是否大于1快速判定地震序列是否为前震型序列,但由于不同类型地震序列之间h值分布范围重叠较为严重,不能根据h值完全准确地判定出序列类型;通过h值方法得到最大余震震级的预测结果报准率约为70%(震级误差为±0.5级),余震震级较低时,预测结果相对较为准确,孤立型序列判定结果优于主余型序列;根据实际发生的地震,检验认为门源6.4级地震序列的发展趋势和最大余震均符合h值预测所得结果。     

用地震能量加速释放模型研究台湾中部的地震活动性

采用由地震能量加速释放模型发展的“破裂时间”方法深入研究了台湾中部40次M≥4．5级地震的活动特点。首先识别主震及其前震，然后按要求选用观测资料。把“破裂时间”非线性方程分成两个线性方程，再使用线性最小二乘法估计参数。用部分估计参数建立模型，并用其来预测破裂的时间和主震的震级。比较预测结果和研究的40次地震，最大时间偏差仅0．98年，震级偏差1．2级。由此表明，作为地震活动研究的一种有效方法，地震能量加速释放模型可应用于台湾中部。     

前兆震群与短期前兆异常的时间特征

根据我国近几年来的震例资料,不少强烈地震发生之前,往往有震群活动。震群发生的部位,有的在未来地震的震中区及其附近,有的在与主震发震构造呈共轭关系的活动构造带上,也有的在主震发震构造带的延长线上,并与主震震中相隔一定的距离。震群出现的时间多在震前五个月,这种震群我们称之为前兆震群。前兆震群中最大震级M_b、震群持续时间T、震群距主震震中的距离D都与未来主震震级M_主大小无关。结合前兆观测资料分析,似乎可以认为震前5个月是强震短期前兆出现的上限异常时间。在这个时间段,前兆观测曲线或呈现转折,或呈现明显的加速现象,即由中长期缓变阶段开始转为短期加速变化阶段。另外,在强震震中沿活动构造带或沿块体边缘迁移时,迁移时间也有相隔5个月的现象。     

鄂尔多斯周缘地区中强震发生前地震矩加速释放时空特征

为研究鄂尔多斯周缘地区中强地震发生前地震矩加速释放时空特征,选取去丛集后的地震目录,基于地震矩释放程度m值,对1981年以来鄂尔多斯周缘地区10例MS≥5.5中强地震进行二维时空扫描,提取与地震矩加速释放特征相关的时空尺度作为矩释放程度时空扫描模型参数,以3个月为扫描步长,对震前12个月m值及累积Benioff应变释放进行拟合计算。结果显示,震前破裂成核点附近存在显著的AMR现象,7次震例存在累积Benioff应变加速释放特征,说明鄂尔多斯周缘地区MS≥5.5地震发生前AMR现象存在一定普遍性,应用矩加速时空扫描方法具有一定优势,但仍需结合其他方法进行综合分析。     

A Forward Test of the Precursory Decelerating and Accelerating Seismicity Model for California

Accelerating strain energy released by the generation of intermediate magnitude preshocks in a broad (critical) region, and decelerating energy released in a narrower (seismogenic) region, is considered as a distinct premonitory pattern useful in research for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. Accelerating seismicity in the broad region is satisfactorily interpreted by the critical earthquake model and decelerating seismicity in the narrower region is attributed to stress relaxation due to pre-seismic sliding. To facilitate the identification of such patterns an algorithm has been developed on the basis of data concerning accelerating and decelerating preshock sequences of globally distributed already occurred strong mainshocks. This algorithm is applied in the present work to identify regions, which are currently in a state of accelerating seismic deformation and are associated with corresponding narrower regions, which are in a state of decelerating seismic deformation in California. It has been observed that a region which includes known faults in central California is in a state of decelerating seismic strain release, while the surrounding region (south and north California, etc.) is in a state of accelerating seismic strain release. This pattern corresponds to a big probably oncoming mainshock in central California. The epicenter, magnitude and origin time, as well as the corresponding model uncertainties of this probably ensuing big mainshock have been estimated, allowing a forward testing of the model's efficiency for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.     

新疆南部构造区带与地震活动状态研究

Based on the studies of earthquake activity, tectonic movement, crustal shortening rate, fault activity, local stress field and historical characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Xinjiang, we divide the south part of Xinjiang into 4 seismotectonic zones, namely, the eastern segment of south Tianshan seismic belt, the Kalpin block, the Kashi-Wuqia junction zone, and the west Kunlun Mountains seismic belt. Using earthquake catalogues from Xinjiang since 1900, and on the basis of integrity analysis of earthquake records in different magnitude ranges, the seismicity state of different seismotectonic zones is analyzed quantificationally by calculating the mean value of annual strain energy release, annual rate of earthquakes with different lower limits of magnitude, b-value, and the parameter m of accelerating strain release model. The characteristic indexes of seismicity state for each of the seismic tectonic zones are then determined, which provide a quantitative basis for earthquake tendency analysis and judgment.     

地震临界现象及相关尺度增长定量检测方法研究综述

当前作为强震前的典型特征, 临界阶段地震活动的相关长度增长及主震周围矩释放加速(AMR)现象近年来受到广泛关注及普遍认可。 但近期部分震例研究显示, 在震中周围的大尺度范围内检测到矩释放加速的现象, 而在震中附近较小区域又可检测到矩释放减速的现象。 该文拟对地震活动相关以及临界状态的研究状况, 主震前震区周围大范围矩释放加速和小范围矩释放减速定量化检测的国内外研究状况以及研究中所存在的问题作了综述。     

中国大陆7级强震前中小地震应变释放特征

给出加速模型拟合的穷举方法,以中国大陆21次6.8级以上地震为例,在单个震例详细研究的基础上,总结中国大陆7级左右地震前地震应变释放的群体特征。 总的来看,7级左右地震前中小地震应变释放模式可分为5类,第Ⅰ类是震前震中周围较大范围应变释放加速、震中附近较小范围应变释放减速(DA),约占38%; 第Ⅱ类是震中附近较大范围应变释放减速、较小范围应变释放加速(AD),约占19%; 第Ⅲ类仅能检测出应变释放的加速特征(ASR),约占14%; 第Ⅳ类仅能检测出应变释放的减速特征(DSR),约占24%; 第Ⅴ类仅1例,各种尺度的时、空范围内,基本上呈现应变匀速释放特征(LSR)。 前兆性地震序列应变加、减速释放的持续时间一般相差3~6年,这表明增强基础上的平静往往是强震前中小地震活动典型的应变释放特征。 DA模式中震前具有稳定的应变加、减速释放特征的临界区域范围平均来看大约分别是震中附近260~400 km及100~200 km,大约分别是7级左右地震平均破裂尺度的3~5倍及1~2倍; AD模式与此相反。 模型参数m值具有较好的稳定性,就应变释放加速现象而言,无论何种应变释放模式、无论应变释放的绝对量如何,其加速释放速率大体相当。 而从应变释放减速情形来看,“外围增强、内部减弱”的DA模式,其应变减速释放特征最为明显。     

Parallel 3-D Simulation of a Fault Gouge Using the Lattice Solid Model

Despite the insight gained from 2-D particle models, and given that the dynamics of crustal faults occur in 3-D space, the question remains, how do the 3-D fault gouge dynamics differ from those in 2-D? Traditionally, 2-D modeling has been preferred over 3-D simulations because of the computational cost of solving 3-D problems. However, modern high performance computing architectures, combined with a parallel implementation of the Lattice Solid Model (LSM), provide the opportunity to explore 3-D fault micro-mechanics and to advance understanding of effective constitutive relations of fault gouge layers. In this paper, macroscopic friction values from 2-D and 3-D LSM simulations, performed on an SGI Altix 3700 super-cluster, are compared. Two rectangular elastic blocks of bonded particles, with a rough fault plane and separated by a region of randomly sized non-bonded gouge particles, are sheared in opposite directions by normally-loaded driving plates. The results demonstrate that the gouge particles in the 3-D models undergo significant out-of-plane motion during shear. The 3-D models also exhibit a higher mean macroscopic friction than the 2-D models for varying values of interparticle friction. 2-D LSM gouge models have previously been shown to exhibit accelerating energy release in simulated earthquake cycles, supporting the Critical Point hypothesis. The 3-D models are shown to also display accelerating energy release, and good fits of power law time-to-failure functions to the cumulative energy release are obtained.     

Long-range Automaton Models of Earthquakes: Power-law Accelerations,Correlation Evolution,and Mode-switching

—?We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r ^?p dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.     

青海玉树MS7.1级地震发震应力场与非稳定发震机理的模拟

分析了玉树地区的地应力场、速度场.在此基础上,对青海玉树2010.4.14 MS7.1级地震发震机理进行了数值模拟.将围岩看成弹性体,断层看成具有应变软化特性的弹塑性体,断层和围岩组成统一的地质介质系统.在地应力、孔隙压力及边界位移的作用下,应力逐渐积累,当达到断层的摩擦破坏强度时,断层产生位移软化,断层突然滑动,能量...     

Characteristics of Strain Release before Large Earthquakes of M≥7. 0 in the Chinese Mainland

The enumerating algorithm has been introduced into the fitting procedure of the ASR model. Based on the detailed study of 21 large earthquakes with M≥6. 8 in the Chinese Mainland,the statistical features of seismic strain release before large earthquakes have been summarized. In the mass,the strain release models can be divided into five types. The first is the DA model,in which the strain release accelerates in broader areas and decelerates in small areas around the epicenter. Approximately 38% of earthquake samples are of this type. The second is the AD model,in which the strain release decelerates in broader areas and accelerates in smaller areas around the epicenter with an occupying ratioof approximately 19%. The third is ASR,in which only accelerating strain release can be observed. Cases of this model amount to about 14%. The fourth is DSR,in which only decelerating strain release can be checked,amounting to about 24%. There is only one earthquake sample of the fifth type (LSR),which shows a linear strain release. There is a 3～6 years difference in the duration of pre-shock sequences between the accelerating and decelerating models. This means that seismic quiescence against a background of increased seismicity of small earthquakes before large earthquakes are a typical feature in general. For the DA model,the average size of critical regions for steady accelerating and decelerating strain release is about 260km to 400km and 100km to 200km,respectively,3 to 5 times and 1 to 2 times the rupture size of an earthquake of magnitude 7. 0. The AD model is the opposite of the DA model. The model parameter,m value,has good stability. The ratio of ASR is about the same for accelerating seismic strain release phenomena,no matter what the strain release models are,or how large the strain release quantity is. With regard to decelerating seismic strain release phenomena, the DA model has the most distinctive decelerating strain release characteristic and is the typical feature of seismic strain release,i. e. "decelerating in-accelerating out seismic strain model".