台风激发的第二类地脉动特征及激发模式分析

0.003~1 Hz频段的地脉动主要来源于海浪运动与固体地球的耦合作用,台风引起的强烈海浪运动往往可使地脉动能量显著增强.由于涉及大气-海洋-固体地球三个圈层之间的复杂动量传递与耦合过程,迄今为止,关于台风激发地脉动的具体源区位置及激发机制尚存在争议.本文选取日本、中国东南沿海及台湾地区的地震台站波形连续记录,研究了2008年台风"森拉克"和"黑格比"激发地脉动的时频特征,开展相应数值模拟,并与观测数据进行了对比分析研究.结果表明台风激发第二类地脉动存在两种主要模式:(1)近岸源区激发,即台风引起波浪入射至海岸反射并与后续来波相互作用形成驻波作用于海底而激发;(2)台风中心附近源区激发,即台风中心移动过程中不同时期激发的同频率波浪相向传播、相互作用产生驻波作用于海底而激发,源区位置主要集中于台风中心左后方.此外,结合波浪再分析数据、台风风场特征,我们进一步对第二类地脉动激发过程中的影响因素进行了分析,发现:第一种模式激发的地脉动与近岸源区波浪场强度、观测点至源区距离及台风中心至海岸线距离等因素相关;而第二种模式激发的地脉动则主要受台风中心附近波浪场的频率成分与传播方向影响.     

厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与赤道远西太平洋准两年周期振荡之间相互作用的概念模式

建立了一个反映厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)与热带远西太平洋准两年振荡(QBOWP)相互作用最基本物理过程的新概念模式. 在此概念模式中, QBOWP对ENSO的影响通过两种途径: (1) 沿赤道太平洋海洋Kelvin波和 (2) 大气的Walker环流; 而ENSO对QBOWP的影响则可通过大气的Walker环流异常来实现. 对该模式结果的分析诊断表明: 在ENSO与QBOWP相互作用过程中, 大气桥(Walker环流)的作用比海洋桥(沿赤道太平洋的Kelvin波)更重要; 通过QBOWP与ENSO的相互作用, 一个3~5年周期的ENSO振荡可以变为准两年振荡, 而赤道远西太平洋年际变化的主要周期也会变长; 热带太平洋大气-海洋耦合系统的多时间尺度的年际变化可以通过ENSO与QBOWP的相互作用来实现.     

利用回归修正方法改善区域耦合模式中的ENSO模拟

通过对数值实验的比较和分析, 提出了一种旨在改善区域耦合模式中ENSO模拟的回归修正方法. 该方法主要用于修正耦合模式中海气间交换的通量. 具体步骤如下: 首先, 利用多年的观测资料计算得到驱动海洋模式所需的动量及热量通量, 驱动海洋模式进行长期积分; 其次, 用海洋模式模拟的SST作为大气模式的边界条件, 相应积分大气模式; 再利用大气模式模拟变量和相应观测资料建立线性关系, 通过线性拟合得到修正系数; 最后, 利用随时间和空间变化的回归修正系数修正计算动量及热量通量的变量, 并用修正后的变量计算海气交换通量, 进行耦合模式积分. 同时利用一个热带太平洋-全球大气耦合模式对该方案及常用的“距平耦合”方案进行了检验. 结果表明, 该方案优于“距平耦合”方案, 不仅可以更好的控制气候“漂移”现象, 而且, 能够改善区域耦合模式在热带太平洋区域的ENSO模拟.     

粤东沿岸上升流对2006年夏季台风响应

通过在粤东沿岸进行的大面走航CTD观测,特别是座底式的海床基测流资料,比较详细的探讨了台风过境对粤东沿岸上升流系统的影响.研究结果表明：南海夏季风驱动的东北向地转流在汕头附近存在显著的近海底向岸分量,与上层的离岸埃克曼平流共同构成了粤东近岸的典型上升流系统.进一步的分析表明粤东沿岸上升流系统对台风强度及其入侵路径比较敏感.当台风入侵路径位于上升流系统以北时（如0604号台风碧利斯和0605号台风凯米）,在台风过境初期,局地西南风的异常增大使得向岸流显著增强,即上升流增强;在台风过境期及后期,无论是由于局地风场过强导致的海洋受迫响应（0604号台风碧利斯）,还是中度台风诱发的惯性振荡（0605号台风凯米）,都不利于维持一个稳定的、持续的上升流系统.当台风从上升流系统以南入侵时（如0606号台风派比安）,有利于上升流产生的西南风被东北风取代,风驱向岸的埃克曼平流效应以及质量守恒使得海洋中、下层为离岸流,上层为向岸流,粤东沿岸传统的上升流结构遭到彻底颠覆;当台风过境后,典型的上升流结构会在1～2d内回复.     

FGOALS－g快速耦合模式模拟的北太平洋年代际变率

本文分析了由中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室（LASG/IAP）最新发展的FGOALS_－g快速耦合模式300 a积分模拟结果,通过与多种观测资料的对比分析,讨论了北太平洋年代际变率的时空结构、主要年代际模态的演变特征以及与ENSO的联系等研究内容. 结果表明：该模式能成功模拟出北太平洋年代际变率的主要空间分布特征;模拟的年代际模态具有多时间尺度性,其中最显著的是周期约为10～20 a左右的准20年振荡模态,该模态上层海洋热容量异常的演变过程主要表现为大致沿副热带海洋涡旋做海盆尺度顺时针旋转的特征,相应的大气异常不仅与阿留申低压的变异有关,而且与太平洋-北美PNA）遥相关型以及上游的欧亚大气环流异常有密切关系;模拟的北太平洋年代际变率对年际ENSO循环的发生频率和强度有明显的调制作用. 但模拟的KOE区和阿拉斯加湾SST异常振幅比观测偏强,这与模式海冰偏多、高纬度SST偏冷的误差有关.     

一个新的双向反射地表-大气辐射耦合模式

一个精确而又适用的双向反射地表-大气辐射耦合模式对空间遥感应用是非常重要的. 基于太阳辐射与地表和大气相互作用的物理过程, 发展了一个新的双向反射地表-大气辐射耦合模式. 如数值试验所表明的, 本模式的精度明显优于6S的双向反射地表-大气辐射耦合模式. 由本模式计算的总共110112组亮度样本的标准差只有0.49%, 只为6S标准差的1/4左右. 在太阳天顶角小于75symbol 176 \f "Symbol" \s 10皚和视天顶角小于60°条件下, 本模式的误差一般小于2.5%.     

FGOALS－g快速耦合模式模拟的北太平洋年代际变率

本文分析了由中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室（LASG/IAP）最新发展的FGOALS_－g快速耦合模式300 a积分模拟结果,通过与多种观测资料的对比分析,讨论了北太平洋年代际变率的时空结构、主要年代际模态的演变特征以及与ENSO的联系等研究内容. 结果表明：该模式能成功模拟出北太平洋年代际变率的主要空间分布特征;模拟的年代际模态具有多时间尺度性,其中最显著的是周期约为10～20 a左右的准20年振荡模态,该模态上层海洋热容量异常的演变过程主要表现为大致沿副热带海洋涡旋做海盆尺度顺时针旋转的特征,相应的大气异常不仅与阿留申低压的变异有关,而且与太平洋-北美PNA）遥相关型以及上游的欧亚大气环流异常有密切关系;模拟的北太平洋年代际变率对年际ENSO循环的发生频率和强度有明显的调制作用. 但模拟的KOE区和阿拉斯加湾SST异常振幅比观测偏强,这与模式海冰偏多、高纬度SST偏冷的误差有关.     

国内台风数值预报模式及其关键技术研究进展

我国是世界上受台风灾害影响最严重的国家之一.减轻台风灾害首先依赖于台风预报能力,这主要取决于台风数值预报模式及其关键技术的发展水平.本文简要回顾了国内台风数值预报模式的发展历程;介绍了目前国内模式在台风初始化和物理过程等方面的关键技术特点;分析了模式技术中存在的主要问题,并就今后的技术发展提出了建议.文中指出,一方面,尽管基于经验假设的涡旋构造技术在典型台风的分析和预报中仍发挥着重要作用,但为提高对异常台风路径和强度变化的预报,需要加强卫星等观测资料在模式分析中的应用.另一方面,通过加强模式细网格条件下的物理过程参数化研究,可以更加合理地刻画台风中小尺度物理过程,进一步提高台风强度、风雨预报性能.     

LASG耦合气候系统模式FGCM-1.0

本文描述了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)最新发展的一个耦合气候系统模式的基本性能. 该模式是在LASG灵活的全球耦合气候系统模式（英文缩写为FGCM）的初始版本FGCM-0的基础上发展而来的,是该系列耦合模式的第二个版本，即FGCM-1.0. FGCM-1.0通过一个通量耦合器将大气、海洋和海冰三个分量模式耦合在一起，其中海洋分量模式是LASG发展的一个涡相容分辨率（eddy-permitting）全球海洋环流模式，大气和海冰分量模式则为美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）的大气环流模式CAM2和海冰模式CSIM4. 耦合模式完整地考虑了海气界面上的动量、热量和淡水通量交换，尽管在模式中没有使用任何形式的人为的通量调整或者通量距平方案，模式还是比较合理地模拟出基本的气候形态. 通过对该耦合模式长期积分结果的进一步分析发现，模式能够比较好地模拟出厄尔尼诺－南方涛动（ENSO）以及印度洋偶极子事件的基本特征；与FGCM系列耦合模式的最初版本FGCM-0相比，FGCM-1.0模拟的北赤道逆流（NECC）和ENSO循环更加真实.     

基于矩阵算法的海洋-大气耦合矢量辐射传输数值计算模型

基于矩阵算法开发了适用于精确计算海洋-大气耦合矢量辐射传输方程的数值计算模型- PCOART. PCOART首先将矢量辐射传输方程进行傅里叶展开, 得到与方位角独立的矢量辐射传输方程. 进一步离散天顶角, 得到矢量辐射传输矩阵方程, 并利用加倍法进行数值求解. 根据辐射在海洋-大气界面的反射和折射性质, 将海洋和大气矢量辐射传输过程进行耦合, 得到海洋-大气耦合介质系统的矢量辐射传输数值计算模型. 通过与MODIS精确瑞利散射查找表的比较, 说明PCOART计算瑞利散射辐射的Stokes矢量是精确的, 其对多次散射和偏振的处理是正确的. 同时, 通过Mobley水体辐射传输标准问题的验证, 说明PCOART适合于计算水体辐射传输问题. PCOART是精确计算海洋-大气耦合介质系统矢量辐射传输的得力工具, 它为进一步深入研究海洋-大气耦合介质系统辐射传输的偏振特性及遥感信息反演打下基础.     

南海夏季风爆发与南大洋海温变化之间的联系

利用1979-2009年NCEP第二套大气再分析资料和ERSST海温资料,分析南海夏季风爆发时间的年际和年代际变化特征,考察南海夏季风爆发早晚与南大洋海温之间的联系.主要结果为:(1)南海夏季风爆发时间年际和年代际变化明显,1979-1993年与1994-2009年前后两个阶段爆发时间存在阶段性突变;(2)南海夏季风爆发时间与前期冬季(12-1月)印度洋-南大洋(0-80°E,75°S-50°S)海温、春季(2-3月)太平洋-南大洋(170°E -80°W,75°S-50°S)海温都存在正相关关系,当前期冬、春季南大洋海温偏低(高)时,南海夏季风爆发偏早(晚).南大洋海温信号,无论是年际还是年代际变化,都对南海夏季风爆发具有一定的预测指示作用;(3)南大洋海温异常通过海气相互作用和大气遥相关影响南海夏季风爆发的迟早.当南大洋海温异常偏低(偏高)时,冬季南极涛动偏强(偏弱),同时通过遥相关作用使热带印度洋-西太平洋地区位势高度偏低(偏高)、纬向风加强(减弱),热带大气这种环流异常一直维持到春季4、5月份,位势高度和纬向风异常范围逐步向北扩展并伴随索马里越赤道气流的加强(减弱),从而为南海夏季风爆发偏早(偏晚)提供有利的环流条件.初步分析认为,热带大气环流对南大洋海气相互作用的遥响应与半球际大气质量重新分布引起的南北涛动有关.     

Impact of ocean–wave coupling on typhoon-induced waves and surge levels around the Korean Peninsula: a case study of Typhoon Bolaven

Typhoon-induced waves and surges are important when predicting potential hazards near coastal regions. In this paper, we applied a coupled modeling system for ocean–wave interaction to examine prediction capabilities for typhoon-induced waves and surges around the Korean Peninsula. To identify how ocean–wave coupling impacts wave and surge simulations during typhoon conditions, a set of comparative experiments was performed during Typhoon Bolaven (2012): (1) a fully coupled ocean–wave model, (2) a one-way coupled ocean–wave model without surface current feedback and ocean-to-wave water levels, and (3) a stand-alone ocean model without considering wave-based sea surface roughness (SSR). When coupled with the ocean model, the surface current reduced significantly the wave height on the right-hand side of the advancing typhoon track and improved prediction accuracy along the southern coast of Korea. Compared with the observed surge levels, the simulated surge height yielded improved results for peak height magnitude and timing compared with the uncoupled model. For wave-to-surge feedback, we found that wave-induced SSR plays an important role by modulating wind stress in the surface layer. The modulated wind stress directly affected the surge height, which improved surge peak prediction during the typhoon.     

Statistics of breaking waves and its applications to estimation of air-sea fluxes (I)--Theoretical models

Wave breaking statistics, such as the whitecap coverage and average volume of broken seawater, are evaluated in terms of wave parameters by use of wave breaking model (Yuan et al., 1988) taking the fifth order Stokes's wave as the analog of the original wave field. Based on the observed fact that breaking waves play an important role in the exchange of mass, momentum and energy between the atmosphere and the ocean, the influence of wave breaking on air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture is investigated. Theoretical expressions of bubble-volume flux and sea spray spectrum at the sea surface and models for bubble-induced and spray droplet-induced heat and moisture fluxes are established. This work can be taken as the basis for further understanding the mechanism of air-sea coupling and parameterization models.     

Statistics of breaking waves and its applications to estimation of air-sea fluxes (Ⅰ)——Theoretical models

Wave breaking statistics, such as the whitecap coverage and average volume of broken seawater, are evaluated in terms of wave parameters by use of wave breaking model (Yuan et al., 1988) taking the fifth order Stokes's wave as the analog of the original wave field. Based on the observed fact that breaking waves play an important role in the exchange of mass, momentum and energy between the atmosphere and the ocean, the influence of wave breaking on air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture is investigated. Theoretical expressions of bubble-volume flux and sea spray spectrum at the sea surface and models for bubble-induced and spray droplet-induced heat and moisture fluxes are established. This work can be taken as the basis for further understanding the mechanism of air-sea coupling and parameterization models.     

Statistics of breaking waves and its applications to estimation of air-sea fluxes (I)

Wave breaking statistics, such as the whitecap coverage and average volume of broken seawater, are evaluated in terms of wave parameters by use of wave breaking model (Yuan et al., 1988) taking the fifth order Stokes’s wave as the analog of the original wave field. Based on the observed fact that breaking waves play an important role in the exchange of mass, momentum and energy between the atmosphere and the ocean, the influence of wave breaking on air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture is investigated. Theoretical expressions of bubble-volume flux and sea spray spectrum at the sea surface and models for bubble-induced and spray droplet-induced heat and moisture fluxes are established. This work can be taken as the basis for further understanding the mechanism of air-sea coupling and parameterization models.     

Relationship between thermally forced surface wind and sea surface temperature gradient

An important part of the influence of the oceans on the atmosphere is through direct radiation, sensible heat flux and release of latent heat of evaporation, whereby all of these processes are directly related to the surface temperature of the oceans. A main effect of the atmosphere on the oceans is through momentum exchange at the air-ocean interface, and this process is directly related to the surface wind stress. The sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface wind stress are the two important components in the air-ocean system. If SST is given, a thermally forced boundary layer atmospheric circulation can be simulated. On the other hand, if the surface wind stress is given, the wind-driven ocean waves and ocean currents can be computed.The relationship between SST and surface wind is a coupling of the atmosphere and the oceans. It changes a one-way effect (ocean mechanically driven by atmosphere, or atmosphere thermally forced by oceans) into two-way air-sea interactions. Through this coupling the SST distribution, being an output from an ocean model, leads to the thermally forced surface winds, which feeds back into the ocean model as an additional forcing.Based on Kuo's planetary boundary layer model a linear algebraic equation is established to link the SST gradient with the thermally forced surface wind. The surface wind blows across the isotherms from cold to warm region with some deflection angle to the right (left) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Results from this study show that the atmospheric stratification reduces both the speed and the deflection angle of the thermally forced wind, however, the Coriolis' effect increases the wind speed in stable atmosphere (Ri>10^–4) and increases the deflection angle.     

Investigation of hurricane Ivan using the coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) model

The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) model is used to hindcast Hurricane Ivan (2004), an extremely intense tropical cyclone (TC) translating through the Gulf of Mexico. Sensitivity experiments with increasing complexity in ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled exchange processes are performed to assess the impacts of coupling on the predictions of the atmosphere, ocean, and wave environments during the occurrence of a TC. Modest improvement in track but significant improvement in intensity are found when using the fully atmosphere–ocean-wave coupled configuration versus uncoupled (e.g., standalone atmosphere, ocean, or wave) model simulations. Surface wave fields generated in the fully coupled configuration also demonstrates good agreement with in situ buoy measurements. Coupled and uncoupled model-simulated sea surface temperature (SST) fields are compared with both in situ and remote observations. Detailed heat budget analysis reveals that the mixed layer temperature cooling in the deep ocean (on the shelf) is caused primarily by advection (equally by advection and diffusion).     

Wave effects in global ocean modeling: parametrizations vs. forcing from a wave model

One of the main challenges of the Copernicus Marine Service is the implementation of coupled ocean/waves systems that accurately estimate the momentum and energy fluxes provided by the atmosphere to the ocean. This study aims to investigate the impact of forcing the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with forecasts from the wave model of Météo-France (MFWAM) to improve classical air-sea flux parametrizations, these latter being mostly driven by the 10-m wind. Three wave-related processes, namely, wave-state-dependent stress, Stokes drift-related effects (Stokes-Coriolis force, Stokes drift advection on tracers and on mass), and wave-state-dependent surface turbulence, are examined at a global scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Three years of sensitivity simulations (2014–2016) show positive feedback on sea surface temperature (SST) and currents when the wave model is used. A significant reduction in SST bias is observed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This is mainly due to the more realistic momentum flux provided by the wave model. In mid-latitudes, the most interesting impact occurs during the summer stratification, when the wind is low and the wave model produces a reduction in the turbulence linked with wave breaking. Magnitudes of the large-scale currents in the equatorial region are also improved by 10% compared to observations. In general, it is shown that using the wave model reduces on average the momentum and energy fluxes to the ocean in tropical regions, but increases them in mid-latitudes. These differences are in the order of 10 to 20% compared with the classical parametrizations found in stand-alone ocean models.     

Ocean response to typhoon Nuri (2008) in western Pacific and South China Sea

Typhoon Nuri formed on 18 August 2008 in the western North Pacific east of the Philippines and traversed northwestward over the Kuroshio in the Luzon Strait where it intensified to a category 3 typhoon. The storm weakened as it passed over South China Sea (SCS) and made landfall in Hong Kong as a category 1 typhoon on 22 August. Despite the storm’s modest strength, the change in typhoon Nuri’s intensity was unique in that it strongly depended on the upper ocean. This study examines the ocean response to typhoon Nuri using the Princeton Ocean Model. An ocean state accounting for the sea-surface temperature (SST) and mesoscale eddy field prior to Nuri was constructed by assimilating satellite SST and altimetry data 12 days before the storm. The simulation then continued without further data assimilation, so that the ocean response to the strong wind can be used to understand processes. It is found that the SST cooling was biased to the right of the storm’s track due to inertial currents that rotated in the same sense as the wind vector, as has previously been found in the literature. However, despite the comparable wind speeds while the storm was in western Pacific and SCS, the SST cooling was much more intense in SCS. The reason was because in SCS, the surface layer was thinner, the vorticity field of the Kuroshio was cyclonic, and moreover a combination of larger Coriolis frequency as the storm moved northward and the typhoon’s slower translational speed produced a stronger resonance between wind and current, resulting in strong shears and entrainment of cool subsurface waters in the upper ocean.     

利用全极化微波辐射计资料反演台风境内海面风场

作为一种新兴的被动遥感技术,全极化微波辐射计不仅可以提供海面风速产品,还可以提供海面风向产品.以往利用全极化微波辐射计观测亮温进行海面风场反演仅在晴空条件下进行,本文通过对观测亮温结合台风区域海面风场的分布特征进行分析,验证了全极化微波辐射计具有在台风等恶劣天气条件下进行海面风场观测的能力.基于敏感性分析实验,确定使用6.8 GHz和10.7 GHz等低频通道组合可进行台风区域内海面风场反演.其中,海面风速反演使用基于统计的多元线性回归算法,同时对海面温度、大气水汽含量、云中液态水含量及降水强度等物理量进行反演计算,为海面风向反演做准备.海面风向反演使用物理统计法进行,借鉴散射计风向反演使用的最大似然估计法.通过在全极化辐射传输前向模型中加入降水对大气透过率的影响、设计第三和第四Stokes通道亮温环境影响修正函数,在实现台风区域内海面风向反演的同时减小了反演误差.通过对“云娜”台风境内海面风场进行数值计算,验证了本文反演算法的可行性,并对反演误差的空间分布特征进行了分析.将2004年各台风过程的海面风场反演结果与散射计风场产品进行对比,海面风速和海面风向反演的均方根误差分别为1.64 m·s^-1和18.02°.