活动断裂带的整体地震复发行为及其与分段地震复发行为的关系

利用中国大陆11条活动断裂带的地震资料,研究了板内活动断裂带整体的地震复发行为及其与单段的地震复发行为的关系．结果表明:由多个段落组成的活动断裂带的整体地震复发表现出成丛、完全随机和差的准周期3种行为,但以稀疏成丛行为为主,不同程度地表现出活跃期与平静期的交替;丛与丛之间以及丛内地震的时间间隔、丛的持续时间、地震次数和强度均是可变的;地震复发过程是非线性的,不存在强度 时间、时间 强度的相依性．然而,单个断裂段的地震复发过程要简单得多,并主要表现出准周期和时间可预报行为．本文还进一步揭示:断裂带整体地震复发过程中的丛主要是由不同断裂段在较短时期内的破裂传染作用造成的;沿断裂带破裂传染作用的程度、方向性可因不同轮回而变化,且传染似可跳过断裂带上不破裂的空区．      

断层的大地震复发概率研究

本文以布朗过程时间物理模型为基础, 以地震孕育过程为研究主线, 计算了中国大陆地区主要活动断层在不同预测时段内的强震复发概率, 进而对断层的地震危险性进行了研究。 结果表明: 鲜水河断裂带、 阿尔金断裂带、 东昆仑断裂带、 小江断裂带这4条断层的强震复发概率值显著高于其他断裂带, 反映了这些断层所处地区的应力积累水平高于其他地区, 应属于未来可能复发强震的危险地带。     

断层的大地震复发概率研究

本文以布朗过程时间物理模型为基础,以地震孕育过程为研究主线,计算了我国大陆地区主要活动断层在不同预测时段内的强震复发概率,进而对断层的地震危险性进行了研究。结果表明：鲜水河断裂带、阿尔金断裂带、东昆仑断裂带、小江断裂带这4条断层的强震复发概率值显著高于其他断裂带,反映了这些断层所处地区的应力积累水平高于其他地区,应属于未来可能复发强震的危险地带。     

川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究

我们根据历史地震资料，采用统计学方法研究了川滇地区7条活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征。结果表明，这7条断裂带的强地震复发表现出趋于随机的、随机的、以及丛集的行为，复发过程不具有良好的准周期性，也不存在强度－时间或者时间－强度的相依性。组成断裂带的强震破裂段落的数量越多，复发过程就越复杂。相对的地震活跃期与平静期交替出现。其中，活跃期内地震复发间隔分布的离散性较大，可用Weibull分布近似描述；而平静期的持续时间分布的离散性较小，可用正态等分布近似描述。不同相对活跃期的持续时间及强震的数量差别很大，导致相对活跃期并非准周期重视。因此，基于断裂带整体强震复发间隔分布的中长期危险性概率评估仍然面临一定的困难。     

小江断裂带的破裂分段与地震潜势概率估计

根据历史地震资料分析了云南省东部的小江断裂带强震及大震震源的空间分布,初步划分出7个相对独立的震源段或基本破裂单元.各段历史地震的时间间隔从总体上显示出带有不确定性的时间可预报复发行为.本文初步建立起该断裂带地震时间间隔的统计模型,引入了估算各段以上一次地震大小为背景的平均复发间隔的数学方法,由此估计出该带不同大小地震的给定信度的平均复发间隔区间.进一步提出一种适合于在具有准时间可预报复发为的断裂带上进行地震潜势实时概率分析的方法,并且运用这种方法估算了小江断裂带各段1991年至2005年地震复发的条件概率和概率增益.结果表明:该断裂带的东川以南至嵩明段、澄江至华宁段未来复发强震或大震的可能性较大.      

鲜水河断裂带强震相互作用的动力学模拟研究

以鲜水河断裂带为研究区,首先依据断裂带的地震活动特征,确定整个断裂带的应变积累速率;然后根据GPS观测资料给出的水平应变率和地质给出的鲜水河断裂带断层分段及其相应各段的滑动分布,确定断裂带分段的应力、应变积累速率和强震复发间隔．在此基础上,采用三维有限元模型定量研究断裂带上1893年以来M6．7级以上地震的相互作用及其对断裂带强震复发的影响．研究结果表明,鲜水河断裂带上强震的发生有利于后续地震的发生．强震之间的相互作用不仅影响了断裂带各分段的强震复发间隔,还影响了整个断裂带上的强震活动特征．     

甘孜-玉树断裂带的近代地震与未来地震趋势估计

通过对甘孜－玉树断裂带上近代地震的震级、震中位置和地震地表破裂的空间展布特征的研究，采用Ｎｉｓｈｅｎｋｏ和Ｂｕｌａｎｄ（１９８７）发展的“特征地震复发时间通用分布”概率模型，即“ＮＢ”模型，对甘孜－玉树断裂带各段落未来５０ａ内强震趋势进行了估计。根据研究结果识别出，未来５０ａ内本断裂带内马尼干戈断裂段具有强震复发的高危险性，当江断裂段强震复发的可能性也不能排除，这为地震中长期预报提供了重要依据     

南北地震带北段主要断层的分区强震危险性评估

根据时间-震级可预测模式研究中国南北地震带北段断裂系统的地震复发规律,利用历史地震记录和断层滑动速率资料计算得出区域时间可预测统计模型和震级可预测统计模型,并对4个主要潜在震源区在未来10年内的强震复发危险性进行概率评估。计算结果表明,危险性最高为S1区(海原断裂带),其综合危险率K值为0.841,预测下次主震为6.9级;其次为S2区(天桥沟-黄羊川、香山-天景山、六盘山断裂带等),K值为0.480,预测下次主震为6.4级;S3区(祁连山构造带)和S4区(西秦岭构造带)远低于S1和S2区。按照危险程度排序的前2位均位于东祁连山-六盘山构造带。     

川滇菱形块体东边界各断层段强震演化特征研究

在搜集整理川滇菱形块体东边界断裂带的断裂分段、特征地震和古地震资料基础上,结合各特征参数之间的经验关系,给出东边界断裂带各断层段的长度、宽度、特征地震震级、错动距离等参数.以GPS速度场为约束,利用弹性位错模型反演各断层段深部的年平均滑动速率;针对某些特征地震断层段,根据错动距离及复发周期,确定其位错年积累速率.比较这二种速率之间的定量关系,并利用这一关系给出所有断层段上地震位错年积累速率和地震复发周期.在此基础上,利用弹性位错模型逐次反演1700年以来所有M≥6.8级地震对各断层段位错积累的影响,并将这种影响纳入特征地震的离逝时间中,得到了离逝时间与复发周期的比值,并进行归一化处理最终获取了各断层段的临震危险程度.震例研究表明,当比值为0～1时,断层较安全;当比值〉1时,断层段地震危险程度较高.2009年的结果表明：临震危险程度接近或大于1的断层段有鲜水河断裂带塔公段、安宁河断裂带北段、小江断裂带蒙姑-东川段、东川-寻甸段和宜良-澄江段,其临震危险程度分别为1.35,0.92,1.17,1.04和1.09.     

利用GPS数据估算川滇南部地震(M_S≥6.5)平均复发间隔

利用川滇南部GPS站点速度资料,采用Kriging插值和有限单元中形函数(拉格朗日差值函数)求导原则,计算了川滇南部主应变速率.在此基础上,引入Kostrov地震矩率计算方法,由主应变速率求得了研究区的地震矩率,进而借助于Ward地震平均复发间隔公式计算了研究区地震(MS≥6.5)平均复发间隔.计算结果表明,川滇南部不同震级档地震复发间隔空间分布总体上与区内主要活动断裂展布基本吻合;地震复发间隔低值区主要分布在地震活动水平和滑动速率较高的安宁河—则木河—小江断裂带、丽江—小金河断裂西南段、红河断裂西北段.所得的结果与利用历史地震资料获得的结果基本一致.该方法对于历史地震资料缺乏或不完整地区和活动断层定量研究程度较低的地区有着潜在的应用价值.     

强震观测网、高灵敏度地震观测网、地中强震观测网、宽频带地震观测网

阪神·淡路大震灾后 ,日本着手对原有的地震观测体制作彻底改革 ,多项全国性配置地震计的计划同时开始启动。地震引起的地面晃动的程度不尽相同 ,无感微小地震引发的晃动仅有 0 .0 0 1 μm,频率为1 0 Hz;巨大地震引起的地面晃动的幅度高达 2～ 3 m,周期也有几十秒。虽说都称之为地震计 ,但由于地震动的振幅和频率涉及的范围太大 ,所以应针对观测对象选用不同类型的地震计。下面介绍不同类型的观测网。1　强震观测网 ( K- NET)无论大地有多大的晃动都能将其准确记录下来的地震计称之为强震计。它构造坚实 ,信号明确 ,通常设置在地表 ,对了…     

Age, geology, geophysics, and geochemistry of Mahukona Volcano, Hawai`i

The size, shape, and magmatic history of the most recently discovered shield volcano in the Hawaiian Islands, Mahukona, have been controversial. Mahukona corresponds to what was thought to be a gap in the paired sequence (Loa and Kea trends) of younger Hawaiian volcanoes (<4?Ma). Here, we present the results of marine expeditions to Mahukona where new bathymetry, sidescan sonar, gravity data, and lava samples were collected to address these controversies. Modeling of bathymetric and gravity data indicate that Mahukona is one of the smallest Hawaiian volcanoes (～6,000?km³) and that its magmatic system was not focused in a long-lived central reservoir like most other Hawaiian volcanoes. This lack of a long-lived magmatic reservoir is reflected by the absence of a central residual gravity high and the random distribution of cones on Mahukona Volcano. Our reconstructed subsidence history for Mahukona suggests it grew to at least ～270?m below sea level but probably did not form an island. New ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar plateau ages range from 350 to 654?ka providing temporal constraints for Mahukona’s post-shield and shield stages of volcanism, which ended prematurely. Mahukona post-shield lavas have high ³He/⁴He ratios (16–21?Ra), which have not been observed in post-shield lavas from other Hawaiian volcanoes. Lava compositions range widely at Mahukona, including Pb isotopic values that straddle the boundary between Kea and Loa sequences of volcanoes. The compositional diversity of Mahukona lavas may be related to its relatively small size (less extensive melting) and the absence of a central magma reservoir where magmas would have been homogenized.     

The Yecheng,Xinjiang, China,earthquake of February 14, 1980

In this study, we have checked the location and focal depth of the Yecheng earthquake (m _b = 6.0, maximum intensity VII) of February 14, 1980. The result shows that this is an intermediate event with a focal depth of 90 km. The microepicenter is located at 36. 4°N, 76, 9°E, while the macroepicenter is at 37.3°N, 76.9°E, 90 km to the north of the microepicenter. This is the first destructive intermediate event in China which led to a damage as severe as of intensity VII. The focal mechanism of the event is determined to be of thrust type. Combined with the analysis of seismological and geological data in surrounding area, the possible relation between the event and plate movement has been discussed. The result in this paper indicates that in some particular place, the destructive effect of intermediate event should be considered in seismic hazard assessment.     

Sun, climate, hunger, and mass migration

Paleoclimatic studies indicate four epochs of global cooling during the last 4 000 years, i. e. during the few centuries before and after 2000 BC, 800 BC, 400 AD, and 1 600 AD; the quasiperiodicity corresponds to cyclic variation of solar activity. Global temperature changes influenced regional precipitation patterns: Northern Europe was wetter while the middle- and low-latitude lands were more arid during colder epochs. Both sets of cold climatical conditions were unfavorable for agricultural production. Historical records show that large demographic movements in history took place because of crop failures and mass starvation, rather than escaping from war zones. The “wandering” of the Germanic tribes during the first two or three centuries of the Christian Era is one example. Whereas the accelerated release of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is ultimately to cause global warming, historical evidence indicates, however, that global warming has been on the whole a blessing to mankind. Global cooling, on the other hand, has curtailed agricultural production and has led to famines and mass migrations of people. Perhaps the most important task at the present is not so much computer-modelling of greenhouse effect on global climate, but water-management and agricultural researches to insure food-supply for an everincreasing world population.     

Physical properties,vitrinite reflectance,and microstructure of coal,Taiyuan Formation,Qinshui Basin,China

In this study, we experimentally established the relationship between physical properties, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of coal, Taiyuan Formation, Qinshui Basin, China using representative coal samples collected from three different mines via the rock mechanics testing system (MTS). We analyzed the organic macerals, vitrinite reflectance, and microstructure of 11 coal samples using petrography and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The experimental results suggest that (1) the elastic parameters can be described by linear equations, (2) both P-and S-wave velocities display anisotropy, (3) the anisotropy negatively correlates with vitrinite reflectance, and (4) the acoustic velocities and Young’s modulus are negatively correlated with the volume of micropores. The derived empirical equations can be used in the forward modeling and seismic inversion of physical properties of coal for improving the coal-bed methane (CBM) reservoir characterization.     

Spatial distribution,source apportionment,and associated risks of trace metals (As,Pb, Cr,Cd, and Hg) from a subtropical river,Gomti, Bangladesh

Sediment samples from the Gomti River basin were investigated to determine and evaluate trace metal concentrations,their biological effect,and potential ecological and human health risks for adults and children.The mean concentrations of trace metals were organized in the descending order of mercury(Hg)(0.08 mg/kg)>chromium(Cr)(0.06 mg/kg)>lead(Pb)(0.05 mg/kg)>arsenic(As)(0.02 mg/kg)>cadmium(Cd)(0.01 mg/kg).The current study illustrated that metals were attributed to the area from natural sources and different anthropogenic sources especially from industries.However,the concentration levels were lower than the sediment quality guidelines(SQGs)based on the effect-range classifications of threshold effect concentration(TEC)and probable effect concentration(PEC).Therefore,the concentration of the elements showed no adverse biological effects on aquatic organisms.The evaluated potential ecological risk index also revealed the low toxicity to the aquatic environment.Moreover,the applied sediment quality indices,geo-accumulation index(Igeo),contamination factor(CF),and contamination severity index(CSI)suggested that the contamination levels of the elements were in the acceptable range,and the contamination had not notably impacted on the sediment quality.The risk index(HI)concerning age groups was significantly less than the threshold limit of 1 indicating that the contamination had no non-carcinogenic risk effect.The total carcinogenic risk(TCR)was less than a risk value of 1×10⁴.Hence,the current study suggests that immediate remediation is not required due to an absence of alarming conditions in the study area.Proper monitoring of the attribution of the metal elements should be done for the betterment of human and environmental health。