洱海湖气界面水汽和二氧化碳通量交换特征

基于2012年涡动相关法取得的洱海湖气之间湍流通量资料,计算了湖面反照率、空气动力学粗糙度和整体输送系数等湖气交换过程的基本物理参数;分析高原湖泊表面动量通量、感热通量、潜热通量和二氧化碳通量的变化特征及其主要的控制因子;采用神经网络法对缺失蒸发量数据进行填补,估算了洱海湖面全年蒸发量。2012年全年蒸发量为（1165±15）mm,大于年实际降水量（2012年的年降水量为818mm）。洱海局地环流在全年范围内较显著;全年主导风向为东南（谷风／湖风）和西北风（山风／陆风）。高原湖泊感热通量通常只有每平方米几十瓦,通常午后感热通量为负值;即湖面向大气输送热量。夏季湖泊大气界面感热通量最大值出现在清晨,与湖气温差的出现时间一致;在白天湖面的有效能量主要分配为潜热通量;湖气温差和水汽压差分别是感热通量和潜热通量日变化的主要控制因子。湖气界面二氧化碳通量除夏季存在弱的吸收外,其余季节（冬季）表现为弱的排放。湖面反照率的季节变化规律与太阳高度角的季节变动有关,同时湖面反照率与水的浑浊度等有关。与实际观测得到的湖面反照率相比,CLM4湖泊模式在冬季低估（夏季高估）了湖面反照率。     

不同强度冷空气对太湖水热交换的定量影响

作为冷季主要的天气事件,冷空气过境会改变湖泊上方的气团性质,对湖泊的水热通量产生影响,进而影响湖泊的生物物理和化学过程.以亚热带大型浅水湖泊——太湖为研究对象,基于2012-2017年5个冷季（11月-翌年3月）的太湖中尺度通量网观测数据,量化不同强度冷空气（寒潮、强冷空气和较强冷空气）对太湖水热通量的影响.结果表明：在5个冷季中,寒潮、强冷空气和较强冷空气发生的总次数分别为4、11和33次,累积持续天数分别为14、31和78天.冷空气过境显著增强太湖的水热通量,3种冷空气过境使太湖的感热通量分别增至无冷空气时的10.3、6.0和4.3倍,潜热通量分别增至无冷空气时的4.0、2.1和2.7倍.虽然冷空气影响天数仅占冷季天数的16.4%,但对整个冷季的潜热和感热通量贡献分别为34.9%和51.7%,以较强冷空气贡献最大.冷空气影响时,水-气界面的温度梯度是太湖感热通量的主控因子,而潜热通量的主控因子为风速.与深水湖泊相比,太湖等浅水湖泊对冷空气过境的响应更快,寒潮过境时尤为明显.     

用稳定同位素方法估算大型浅水湖泊蒸发量——以太湖为例

湖泊蒸发量的准确估算对于水文学、气象学和湖泊学等研究有重要的意义.基于2013-2015年太湖水量收支资料、气象观测数据和稳定同位素观测资料,采用稳定同位素质量守恒模型、水量平衡法和Priestley-Taylor模型估算太湖蒸发量,分析太湖蒸发量的季节变化和年际变化特征,并以Priestley-Taylor模型结果为参考值,评价水量平衡法和同位素质量守恒方程的计算精度.结果表明:5-9月太湖蒸发量较高,冬季最低.2013-2015年太湖年总蒸发量分别为1069、894和935 mm,蒸发量的年际变化受到天气条件的影响.2013年12月2014年11月期间,用Priestley-Taylor模型计算的湖泊蒸发量为885 mm;同位素质量守恒模型的估算结果较一致,为893 mm;而水量平衡方程的估算结果明显偏高,为1247 mm.     

滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海长期水位变化(1988-2015年)及驱动因子

水位变化影响湖泊水质、水量和生态系统功能,是研究湖泊演变的重要内容,但目前针对滇中高原湖群水位变化特征还少见系统报道.本文选择滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海3个滇中高原湖泊作为研究对象,基于1988-2015年实测水位数据和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法评估了3个湖泊水位变化特征;运用RClimDex模型获得了流域极端降水指标,结合其他指标构建了基于极端气象因子的湖泊水位驱动力指标体系;采用主成分-多元回归模型,解析了极端降水、蒸发等气象因子对滇中高原湖泊水位变化的贡献.结果表明：①滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海水位年际波动不突出.滇池的年平均水位总体略呈上升趋势,年均上升0.025 m.阳宗海和抚仙湖水位无明显变化.②滇中高原湖泊流域的极端降水指数年际变化趋势不明显.滇池的蒸发量呈明显减小趋势,年均减小21.05 mm.抚仙湖蒸发量呈明显增加趋势,平均每年增加5.52 mm.阳宗海蒸发量的变化不明显.③气象指标可解释滇池水位变化的49.7%,滇池水位变化受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响;阳宗海和抚仙湖水位变化主要受气象条件控制,蒸发量、综合降水指标和连续降水指标对阳宗海水位变化的解释率高达93.3%;综合降水指标和干旱状况指标可以解释抚仙湖水位变化的64.5%.极端降水指标对解释高原湖泊水位变化具有重要作用.     

CLM4-LISSS模型对太湖多时间尺度水热通量模拟性能的评估

湖泊模型为数值天气预报模型提供热量通量、水汽通量和动量通量等下边界条件,但是不同时间尺度上湖泊水热通量变化的控制因子不同,因此有必要对湖泊模型进行多时间尺度上的离线评估.本文利用2012-2016年太湖中尺度通量网避风港站的气象资料和辐射数据驱动CLM4-LISSS模型(Community Land Model version 4-Lake,Ice,Snow and Sediment Simulator),并与涡度相关观测(Eddy Covariance,EC)结果进行对比,以年平均潜热通量模拟结果最佳为目标调整了模式中的消光系数、粗糙度长度方案,研究了该模型从半小时到年尺度上对湖表温度和水热通量的模拟性能.结果表明:模型对湖表温度的模拟在各时间尺度上均比较理想,但是模拟的日较差较小;从半小时到年尺度上潜热通量的变化趋势都能被很好地模拟出来,但在季节尺度上,潜热通量的模拟出现了秋冬季偏高、春夏季偏低的情况,季节变化模拟不准确.湖表温度和潜热通量模拟偏差的原因可能是消光系数的参数化方案.相比之下,感热通量尽管年际变化趋势的模拟值与观测值一致,但是从半小时到年尺度均被高估.特别地,冷锋过境期间,模型能较好地模拟出潜热通量和感热通量的变化趋势,但对于高风速条件下的感热通量模拟效果不佳.本文的研究结果能为湖泊模式的应用与发展提供有用信息.     

1994-2018年松嫩平原西部月亮泡水淹区生态变化及其对水淹频次的响应

半干旱内陆地区的湖泊湿地是一种特殊的生态系统,季节和年际时间尺度上的湖泊水文变化对湖泊湿地生态结构和功能有着重要影响.近20年来,月亮泡湖泊湿地经历了自然和人为因素共同作用下的水文波动过程.为了实现大尺度地表生态年内/年际变化检测,更好地了解湖泊年际水淹范围及其水淹频次对内陆湖滨湿地生态的影响,基于1994—2018年Landsat TM/OLI影像数据(30 m),首先,计算提取月亮泡的年际水体信息和水淹频次,进而获取湖泊年际淹没范围.其次,采用综合生态指数变化检测法提取生态信息,选取3个标准观测年(1995、2006、2016年),从年内变化和年际变化视角分级评价了研究区生态变化,并分析了水淹频次与湿地生态变化的关系.最终,现有研究表明:湖泊年际水淹区主要分布在月亮泡的北侧与西侧尾闾,月亮泡湖泊湿地北侧的年际水淹频次更为显著.湖泊面积的扩展与自然湿地的减少是月亮泡水淹区域的主要变化类型.在这种变化情况下,研究区水体指数累积量的增加与植被指数累积量的衰减成为显著的生态变化特点.月亮泡湖泊年际水淹频次在一定时间和空间上影响着水淹区域的植被生产能力,水淹的低频波动是研究区植被累积量增加的关键因子.因此,在湿地生态恢复与管理过程中,维持合理的水文波动,恢复月亮泡北侧与西侧沼泽湿地是该区域内生态保护的核心措施.     

鄱阳湖夏季水热通量特征及环境要素影响分析

气候变化加速了全球水文循环过程,然而,气候变化如何影响水体蒸发及其水热通量交换仍然不清楚.基于涡度相关系统观测鄱阳湖水体水热通量过程,在小时和日尺度分析了水热通量的变化规律及其主要影响因子.研究表明,潜热通量日变化波动剧烈,大部分为正值,变化范围在-50~580 W/m2之间.而感热通量数值较小,变化范围在-50~50 W/m2之间.8月份潜热通量和感热通量均呈波动下降趋势,均值分别为167.4和15.9 W/m2.8月份日平均潜热通量和感热通量之和大于净辐射,这是由于这一时段储存在水体中的热量释放并补充潜热通量和感热通量.小时尺度上潜热通量日变化在相位上与净辐射无显著相关性,而与风速显著相关.在日尺度变化趋势上,8月份日平均潜热通量仍主要受到风速和水温的影响,感热通量则主要受到风速和饱和水汽压差的影响.     

浅钻岩芯揭示的固城湖4000年来环境演化

对固城湖6.2m深的现代沉积物柱状岩芯进行了放射性同位素、粒度、有机质含量、有机质σ~(13)C和孢粉分析。沉积记录巾各项环境指标的变化表明,4ka以来固城湖经历了高湖面—低湖面—高湖面的显著变化。气候变化是影响湖泊环境演化的重要自然因素,但2.5ka以来人类活动对湖泊演化的影响显得更为明显。特别是2.5ka和1.1ka两次人类对湖泊水系的改造是引起湖泊环境两次突变的主要因素。     

近50年来内蒙古查干淖尔湖水量变化及其成因分析

内蒙古查干淖尔湖是位于季风边缘区干旱与半干旱过渡带的封闭湖泊,对气候变化响应极为敏感.利用1958-2010年的查干淖尔湖21期遥感影像以及湖泊流域1955-2010年的3个气象站点和1个水文站点的气温、降水、蒸发和径流等数据,分析查干淖尔湖近50余年的湖泊水量、面积/水位波动及其原因.结果表明,近50年来在区域气候暖干化的背景下,查干淖尔湖不断萎缩,流域生态环境退化.1958-2010年湖泊容积以2×106m3/a的速度锐减66.9%(从124.1×106m3降到41.1×106m3),湖泊面积缩小73.3%(从105.3 km2降到28.1 km2),平均缩减速度为1.8 km2/a;流域年均气温上升了2.5℃,年降水量下降了36.6 mm.湖泊水量与流域气温和蒸发量显著负相关.查干淖尔湖分为东西两部分,中间由天然堤坝相连,东湖在水闸的人为控制下水位波动范围不超过1 m.西湖水位波动则相对剧烈,湖面下降7.6 m,于2002年彻底干涸,湖盆裸露,已成为盐尘暴、沙尘暴源地.     

湖泊蒸发观测与计算方法研究进展

湖泊蒸发是连接湖泊水分循环与能量平衡的关键纽带之一,认识湖泊蒸发过程对于理解湖-气间相互作用机制十分重要。然而,由于湖泊的形态结构、地理位置和气候背景不同,各湖泊在不同时间尺度上的蒸发特征不同。湖泊蒸发存在复杂的物理驱动过程、时间尺度相关的反馈以及空间异质性。准确地捕捉并量化湖泊蒸发过程,仍是湖沼学、水文学和气象学等学科的重要研究内容。本文首先介绍了湖泊蒸发的主要观测手段,然后概述了湖泊蒸发在日内、季节、年际、年代际四种不同时间尺度的变化特征;梳理了不同时间尺度各要素对湖泊蒸发的影响,以及湖泊蒸发与湖泊面积和深度等形态结构特性及纬度和海拔等地理因素之间的关系;对自涡度相关技术等高精度仪器应用以来的湖泊蒸发研究进展做出了总结。     

Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010

We compared the interannual variability of annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence River (Sorel station) from 1918 to 2010, using several statistical tests. The interannual variability of annual daily maximum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario is characterized by a positive long‐term trend showing two shifts in mean (1929–1930 and 1942–1943) and a single shift in variance (in 1958–1959). In contrast, for the St Lawrence River, this interannual variability is characterized by a negative long‐term trend with a single shift in mean, which occurred in 1955–1956. As for annual daily minimum extreme water levels, their interannual variability shows no significant long‐term change in trend. However, for Lake Ontario, the interannual variability of these water levels shows two shifts in mean, which are synchronous with those for maximum water levels, and a single shift in variance, which occurred in 1965–1966. These changes in trend and stationarity (mean and variance) are thought to be due to factors both climatic (the Great Drought of the 1930s) and human (digging of the Seaway and construction of several dams and locks during the 1950s). Despite this change in means and variance, the four series are clearly described by the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in the St Lawrence and Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over the period from 1918 to 2010. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating the response of a closed‐basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi,Ghana)

Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological impacts of climate change predicted for an inland lake catchment in Ontario by using monthly water balance analyses

Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2005-2017年北部太湖水体叶绿素a和营养盐变化及影响因素

利用国家生态观测网络太湖湖泊生态系统研究站对北部太湖14个监测点2005-2017年的营养盐和叶绿素a浓度逐月监测数据,分析了北部太湖2005年以来水体营养盐和叶绿素a变化特征,探讨了叶绿素变化的影响因素.结果表明,2015年以来,北部太湖水体叶绿素a浓度呈现显著增高特征,特别是5-7月的蓝藻水华灾害关键期,水体叶绿素a浓度增幅更加明显;营养盐方面,氮、磷对治理的响应完全不同：水体总氮、溶解性总氮、氨氮的降幅很明显,甚至在春末夏初的蓝藻生长旺盛期出现了供给不足的征兆;但水体总磷降幅却不明显,加之蓝藻水华的磷"泵吸作用",近3 a来水体总磷浓度反而有升高趋势,溶解性总磷浓度也无明显下降趋势.不同湖区的营养盐变化也不相同：西北湖区溶解性总氮、溶解性总磷浓度显著高于梅梁湾、贡湖湾和湖心区,而且后3个湖区的水质呈现均一化趋势.统计分析表明,北部太湖水体叶绿素a浓度与颗粒氮、颗粒磷、总磷、高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与溶解态氮呈负相关;5-7月水华关键期北部太湖水体叶绿素a浓度与上半年（1-6月）逐日水温积温、总降雨量、年平均水位均呈显著正相关关系.从研究结果可以看出,近年来北部太湖水体叶绿素a浓度的波动很大程度上受水文气象因子的影响;2007年以来太湖流域一系列生态修复工程的实施,虽然明显降低了湖泊氮浓度,但由于流域和湖体的氮磷本底较高,磷的缓冲能力大,致使水体营养盐水平仍未降到能显著抑制蓝藻生长的水平,年际之间的水文气象条件差异成为蓝藻水华暴发强度差异的主控因素.为此,仍需加大对太湖流域氮、磷负荷的削减,使湖体氮、磷浓度降低到能显著影响蓝藻生长的水平,才能摆脱水文气象条件对蓝藻水华情势的决定作用.     

Assessing the impact of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation on evapotranspiration

The impact of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation on the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration as well as on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration is studied using a stochastic soil moisture model within the Budyko framework. Results indicate that given the same long-term mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation, including interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation reduces the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration. This reduction effect is mostly prominent when the dryness index (i.e., the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation) is within the range from 0.5 to 2. The maximum reductions in the evaporation ratio (i.e., the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation) can reach 8–10% for a range of coefficient of variation (CV) values for precipitation and potential evaporation. The relations between the maximum reductions and the CV values of precipitation and potential evaporation follow power laws. Hence the larger the interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation becomes, the larger the reductions in the evaporation ratio will be. The inclusion of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation also increases the interannual variability of evapotranspiration. It is found that the interannual variability of daily rainfall depth and that of the frequency of daily rainfall events have quantitatively different impacts on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration; and they also interact differently with the interannual variability of potential evaporation. The results presented in this study demonstrate the importance of understanding the role of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation in land surface hydrology under a warming climate.     

Analysis of the hydrological response of a tropical terminal lake,Lake Abiyata (Main Ethiopian Rift Valley) to changes in climate and human activities

Integrated dynamic water and chloride balance models with a catchment‐scale hydrological model (PRMS) are used to investigate the response of a terminal tropical lake, Lake Abiyata, to climate variability and water use practices in its catchment. The hydrological model is used to investigate the response of the catchment to different climate and land‐use change scenarios that are incorporated into the lake model. Lake depth–area–volume relationships were established from lake bathymetries. Missing data in the time series were filled using statistical regression techniques. Based on mean monthly data, the lake water balance model produced a good agreement between the simulated and observed levels of Lake Abiyata for the period 1968–83. From 1984 onwards the simulated lake level is overestimated with respect to the observed one, while the chloride concentration is largely underestimated. This discrepancy is attributed to human use of water from the influent rivers or directly from the lake. The simulated lake level and chloride concentration are in better agreement with observed values (r² = 0·96) when human water use for irrigation and salt exploitation are included in the model. A comparison of the simulation with and without human consumption indicates that climate variability controls the interannual fluctuations and that the human water use affects the equilibrium of the system by strongly reducing the lake level. Sensitivity analysis based on a mean climatic year showed that, after prolonged mean climatic conditions, Lake Abiyata reacts more rapidly to an abrupt shift to wetter conditions than to dry conditions. This study shows the significant sensitivity of the level and salinity of the terminal Lake Abiyata to small changes in climate or land use, making it a very good ‘recorder’ of environmental changes that may occur in the catchment at different time scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diatom assemblages and quantitative reconstruction for paleosalinity from a sediment core of Chencuo Lake,southern Tibet

Changing salinity in lakes and especially in closed lakes depends mainly on the balance between precipitation, runoff and evaporation in arid and semi-arid areas, hence influencing lake levels di-rectly[1-4]. Past salinity has been recovered by a vari-ety of environmental indicators from lake sediments such as diatoms, chironomids, ostracoda, isotopes of ostracoda shells, geochemistry, and isotopes of authi-cabonates[3,5—10]. Recently, with extensive data-base study on diatom-salinity transfe…     

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.