基于数值模拟的设定地震场地谱时程拟合方法

本文将确定性数值模拟方法与地震动预测方程相结合,提出了一种重大水电工程场址设定地震的地震动时程生成方法。该方法基于场址设定地震,首先采用地震动预测方程确定场址的场地相关反应谱;其次建立包含震源和场址的场地模型,通过确定性数值模拟方法生成场址地震动时程;最后对生成的场址地震动时程进行调整,使其反应谱与设计谱相一致,用于工程抗震分析。这一方法生成的地震动时程既考虑了震源机制、传播路径以及局部场地效应等物理背景,又与场地相关的设计地震反应谱保持一致,为重大工程抗震分析与评价提供了一种新的思路。     

河南小浪底大坝的设计地震动参数

本文基于以坝址为中心,320公里范围内地质构造、历史地震和地震活动性的分析结果,研究了地震活动性模型,给出了影响小浪底大坝场地地震的空间和震级的分布,采用中国东部地区中强地震动记录和历史地震烈度观测资料,研究了地震动的衰减公式,并考虑了近场和远场震源的烈度与加速度之间的关系。在地震危险性分析中,应用概率方法,确定以10~(-4)年超过概率作为大坝地震危险性评定准则,可得到坝址场地地震动峰值加速度。考虑了各潜在震源离坝址的距离、最大震级和近场或远场震源等场地特征,选取大坝场地反应谱和地震动加速度时程曲线的包络线。最后,应用非随机过程的数学模型逐渐逼近目标谱的方法,得到近场和远场的每一组10条地震动时程曲线。这些人造地震动时程曲线可作为大坝的设计地震动的工程参数。     

长周期地震动盆地效应表征模型的数值模拟

地震动是由震源释放出来的地震波引起的地表附近土层的振动,地震动是震源、地震波在地球介质传播及场地响应这一复杂系统的的产物.地震动研究是跨理论地震学和工程地震学的课题,它不仅有重要的理论意义,同时又有很大的应用价值.     

衰减、场地响应等地震波传播信息综合研究

地震激发的波,经过传播路径、仪器、场地等因素的调制作用成为台站地震记录,即台站记录是震源、路径、仪器、场地等多种因素的耦合,而基于地震记录研究震源信息、路径衰减、场地响应等则是逆向的解耦过程。基于地震学理论、通过各种计算技术,从地震波形资料中解析出关于地震震源力学参数、地震波传播介质及台站场地响应信息是地震研究的重要内容,也是认识地震孕育、发生、发展过程,了解地震孕育背景构造特征等的有效途径。本文在地震学前沿理论方法的基础上使用最新计算机技术开展了以下3个方面的工作。     

山东某场地概率地震危险性分析

利用概率地震危险性分析(CPSHA)方法,对山东某场地进行地震危险性分析,通过对该场地划分潜在震源区,确定地震活动性参数及地震动衰减关系,计算分析地震危险性概率,基本确定对该场地地震动峰值加速度起主要贡献的几个潜在震源区及贡献值,并确定该场地50年超越概率10%的水平向基岩地震动加速度峰值。结果发现,CPSHA方法以具体的构造尺度和更加细致的构造标志来划分潜在震源区,使潜在震源区规模缩减,从而更能反映地震活动在空间分布上的不均匀性。     

考虑椭圆模型MW≥5.5地震震源参数时域计算方法

为提高时效性,地震预警系统对震源的处理一般采用“点源”假定,不考虑震源尺度、破裂方向和震源区应力降,对震源参数简化处理使得预测地震动参数分布过于粗略,特别是对破坏性大震.本文应用日本地震(M_W≥5.5)强震动数据,考虑椭圆震源模型,提出了一种适用于中、大地震矩震级、拐角频率和应力降等震源参数时域计算方法,并分析了场地效应、地震动传播衰减、震源效应和滤波频带等因素对时域方法的影响.结果表明,该方法能利用P波信息快速获取震源能量释放过程,量化随破裂传播震源谱拐角频率、应力降和破裂面积的演化过程,为地震动预测提供更多重要的震源参数.     

《强地震动模拟及工程应用专辑》前言

强地震动模拟分析涉及地震学、岩石力学、土动力学等多个学科,是工程地震学的核心内容之一,国内外学者在该领域已取得较多重要进展.近年来,随着国家韧性城乡建设的需要,区域复杂场地地震区划及重大工程建设对地震动场的准确模拟提出了更高要求.综合考虑震源、路径和场地效应的区域尺度地震动模拟以及场地-结构(群)地震相互作用等已成为当...     

云南地区S波非弹性衰减Qem值研究/

地震波衰减性质的研究是地震学研究的重要课题.地震台站(地震仪)记录到的地震波,包含了地震震源效应、地震波的传播路径效应、台站场地响应及仪器响应.在使用地震波资料研究震源性质时,必须要扣除地震波传播路径效应、台站场地响应及仪器响应的影响.地震波传播的路径效应(地震波衰减),除了随距离存在几何衰减外,还有一个重要的影响因素--即介质的非弹性衰减,用介质品质因子Q值来度量.Q值是地球介质的基本物理参数之一,是对地震进行定量和研究震源性质(如震源参数的测定等)所必需的重要参数,在震源物理和工程地震研究中具有重要应用价值.     

近场强地震动数值模拟的简化计算方法

近场强地震动除受场地条件的影响外,还受到震源破裂面上子源的空间分布特点、子源破裂先后顺序的强烈控制,基于数值格林函数法的近场强地震动数值模拟方法可以综合考虑震源、传播途径及局部场地条件的影响,对计算过程进行合理简化,分2步完成地震动模拟:第1步,在介质均匀区采用矩张量的解析解计算所有子源在盖层底面的位移,形成下一步有限元计算的输入场;第2步,在盖层介质不均匀区,结合局部人工透射边界技术,采用时、空解耦的波动显式有限元方法计算地表强地震动。在有限断层模型中,采用具有9个力偶的等效地震矩张量表达断层产状、滑动方向等的影响,采用Brune模型定义各子源的滑动时间函数,描述滑动的时、空不均匀分布特征,从而细化震源模型。通过对Northridge地震中4个基岩台站地表地震动的模拟结果和强震记录,验证了此简化计算方法的可行性     

大震近场地震动数值模拟的不确定性研究

地震动数值模拟是研究地震发生、发展特征和规律性的基础研究,涉及震源、传播路径、场地三方面的一系列基本问题。研究结果可以直接用于强地震动基本参数的标定和地震动的工程预测以及地震危险性分析,是防震减灾中一项很重要的基础工作。当前考虑断层模型中的几个重要震源参数模拟未来地震动成为热点。例如,不管是随机有限断层方法,还是经验格林函数方法,都特别重视震源参数的选取,但当前对于强地面运动的数值模拟大多是对已发生地震的反演,反演所需的震源参数多是根据地震发生后的观测资料、经验关系推断或者人为的假定得到的。地震动特征预测的好坏,关键也在于震源参数的选取是否可靠,针对工程应用,对未来近断层地面运动的预测应当考虑参数选取的不确定性。强震动数值模拟方法已经比较成熟,比如随机有限断层法、经验格林函数法、混合方法等。但这些模拟地震动的方法多是确定性方法,对模拟过程中各个环节的不确定性因素考虑较少,尤其是断层震源参数的选取都是精确的数值,模拟结果自然不能综合表征未来地震发生时的地震动特征。另外一种地震动特性表征形式是利用地震动预测方程来表现参数的衰减关系,但是预测方程也会受观测数据、模型选取、随机因素的影响,不确定性无法避免。在地震动预测中每个步骤都带有很大的不确定性,主要包括认知的不确定性和随机的不确定性。震源模型的建立依赖各种专家的观点和意见,这种观点和意见往往相互差别很大,有很大的人为不确定性。地震资料的完整性、可靠性,以及理论模型等的建立也会造成很大的不确定性。因此,本论文的研究内容重点在预测未来大震近场地震动时震源环节的不确定性因素,系统地研究影响大震近场地震动数值模拟不确定性的影响因素,以期建立描述影响大震近场地震动数值模拟不确定性影响因素的模型,并将考虑不确定性因素的震源模型应用在破坏性大地震的地震动特征预测中去。针对地震发生时震源参数具有的随机不确定性,通过统计学方法得到震源参数间的经验关系。同时由于地球内部的不可入性以及观测技术手段的限制,地震震源模型还存在很多的认知不确定性因素,我们采用逻辑树方法处理认知不确定性因素,引入强震生成区的概念,重点分析Asperity的认知不确定性因素并在此基础上建立Asperity震源模型,取多种方案结果的最优值作为地震动的预测结果。论文具体的研究内容有以下5点:(1)在Hiroe Miyake工作的基础上,用经验格林函数法模拟了1997年日本九州鹿儿岛县的MJMA6.5地震,验证了经验格林函数法模拟强地面运动的有效性。数据使用的是日本K-NET强震台站数据。选择此次地震以及用日本K-NET数据的原因是日本的地震记录比较丰富,台站收集到的地震记录质量相对较好。同时分析了地震动模拟值中在工程领域使用较多的参数,表明模拟结果较好地反映了真实的地震动记录。证明经验格林函数预测未来强地震动是切实可行的。(2)本论文在大量地震记录及文献调研的基础上,运用统计学方法,通过统计回归分析得到地震密集区域震源参数间的经验关系,重点统计了包含龙门山断裂带在内的中国西南地区震源参数间的经验关系。为了得到更加适应于中国大陆区域的局部震源参数的经验关系,我们将地震样本局限在一定的区域内,缩小统计区域的范围,同时得到多个Asperity等局部震源参数的经验关系。(3)研究和分析各不确定性因素对地震动结果的影响程度对提高地震动预测的可靠性和准确性意义重大。本论文以2016年发生的日本熊本7.3级地震为例,通过参数敏感性分析技术筛选了对拟合结果有决定性影响的关键模型参数。未来地震动预测时会考虑在这几个不确定性因素中加入更高的权重,以提高地震动预测的可信度和准确性。(4)基于汶川地震资料,研究分析Asperity的认知不确定性对地震动预测的影响,运用逻辑树方法建立了考虑不确定性因素的Asperity震源模型。采用Hiroe Miyake提出的强震生成区的概念,将Asperity区域等同于强震生成区域,主要从Asperity的面积、数量、应力降、上升时间等方面进行了认知不确定性的分析研究,得到了针对强震的可能性较大的Asperity的面积和数量的最佳搭配形式。本文的创新点将概率地震危险性分析中不确定性因素的处理方法应用到未来大震近场地震动数值模拟中去。随机不确定性因素用统计学方法处理,认知不确定性用逻辑树方法处理。模拟结果能更好地表征未来大震近场的地震动特征,地震动参数的模拟结果在未来抗震设防及灾害预防中会有更好、更高的参考价值。考虑不确定性因素预测未来破坏性大地震,从而定量地评价发生地震时近场地面运动的综合特征,为防震减灾提供科学的依据,为工程设计决策提供参考依据。     

Determination of source,path and site parameters based on non-linear inversion of accelerometric data in Greece

Source, propagation path and site conditions are the factors affecting seismic ground motion. Consequently, recordings acquired at a seismic station are formed by the convolution of these three factors. In this work S-wave acceleration Fourier spectra of earthquakes recorded at local and regional scale, by the ITSAK accelerometric network for the period 2010–2016, are modeled as a product of source, propagation path (including geometric and anelastic attenuation) and site effects. The data set consists of 136 crustal earthquakes occurred in the broader Aegean area, with magnitudes 4.2?≤?M_w?≤?6.5 and epicentral distances 20 km?≤?R?≤?350 km, recorded at 112 broadband accelerometric stations installed at sites with various geologic conditions. Based on this data set, an iterative Gauss–Newton inversion method to solve the non-linear problem and retrieve the different terms of source, propagation path and site, is applied. This method uses an initial input model trying to find the best and at the same time a stable solution for the inverted parameters, which are, moment magnitude (M_w), corner frequency (f_c), attenuation quality factor (Q_s?=?Q_of^α), slope of the geometric attenuation (1/R^γ) and site transfer function (S(f)). The initial values of the starting model can be either known from other studies or inferred within a reasonable range. Depending on the level of knowledge on these input parameters, the associated standard deviation can be adjusted (large values for unknown parameters or small values for parameters which are well constrained). Results of the analyses exhibit satisfactory agreement of estimated source parameters with those proposed by seismological centers in Greece and propagation path properties similar to the ones determined in relevant previous studies for the same region. In addition, the site transfer functions obtained by the non-linear inversion are comparable with those calculated for the same sites using either standard spectral ratio or horizontal-to-vertical spectral ration (HVSR—receiver function) techniques. The aforementioned results are encouraging for reliable earthquake source parameters, propagation path properties and site effect assessment, in areas of intermediate to high seismicity.     

Q value of anelastic S-wave attenuation in Yunnan region

The study of seismic attenuation property is a major subject in seismology. Seismic waves recorded by seismic stations （seismographs） contain source effect, seismic wave propagation effect, site response of seismic stations and instrumental response. The path effect of seismic wave propagation, site response of seismic stations and instrumental response must be taken out in the study of source property with seismic data. The path effect of seismic wave propagation （seismic attenuation） involves an important influential factor, the anelastic attenuation of medium, which is measured with quality factor Q, apart from geometric attenuation with the distance. As a basic physical parameter of the Earth medium, Q value is essential for quantitative study of earthquakes and source property （e.g. determination of source parameters）, which is widely used in earthquake source physics and engineering seismology.     

Estimation of local site effects by a generalized inversion scheme using observed records of ‘Small-Titan’

A simple-extended array of observation for strong motions, named ‘Small-Titan’, was installed in Sendai City, Japan in 1997. This array system consists of 20 observation sites, which have an average of about 4 km for the station-to-station distance. Each observation station was located at various kinds of soils to effectively obtain local site effects. Since its completion, the system has obtained about 160 motion records. As is well known, ground motions are influenced by the three main factors such as source, path and local site effects. An accurate prediction of ground motions should thus be performed based on the three factors. In this context, theoretical methods used commonly lack enough information related with source and path effects. A generalized inversion scheme to separate the effects of source, propagation path and local site from S-wave spectra was applied to the records of Small-Titan obtained in the Sendai region, Japan. The objective of this paper is to estimate local site effects in Sendai City and to obtain meaningful information of input motions available to earthquake-resistant design, aimed at setting in terms of local soil conditions. This paper also describes the applicability of the generalized inversion scheme to seismic zoning.

Site amplification factors estimated from the generalized inversion scheme vary significantly, reflecting the effects of soil characteristics at each site. Strong site-dependency was found in the site amplification factors. In particular, the local site amplification factors in the western side are smaller than those in the eastern side, across the Nagamachi–Rifu Fault that exists in the central part of the Sendai area. Results from the generalized inversion scheme are compared with those obtained by the direct spectral ratio scheme, the H/V method and the bootstrap inversion. There is a good agreement in the amplification factors between the generalized inversion scheme, the direct spectral ratio scheme and the bootstrap inversion scheme. The H/V method for estimating site amplification is found to extract the same dominant periods as the other methods. This paper especially emphasizes a good agreement in not only dominant period, but also amplification factor.

The generalized inversion scheme is a useful method in separating the effects of source, propagation path and local site and in revealing the site amplification. In addition, the generalized inversion scheme provides meaningful information of input motions available to earthquake-resistant design, aimed at setting in terms of local soil conditions. Moreover, this paper indicates that the generalized inversion scheme is applicable to the seismic zoning toward disaster mitigation.     

Hybrid seismic modeling based on discrete-wave number and finite-difference methods

Any calculation of seismic wave propagation comprising the seismic source, the travel path, and the receiver site in a single finite-difference (FD) model requires a considerable amount of computer time and memory. Moreover, the methods currently available for including point sources in the 2D FD calculations are far-field approximations only. Therefore we have developed a new hybrid method for treating the seismic wave fields at localized 2D near-surface structures embedded in a 1D background medium, and excited by a point source. The source radiation and propagation in the background model is solved by the discrete-wave number (DW) method, while the propagation in the local 2D structure is calculated by the FD method. The coupling between the two sets of calculations is performed on a rectangular excitation box surrounding the local structure. We show the usefulness of the method in ground-motion studies where both near-field source effects and local site effects are important. Technical problems connected with the inconsistency between the 3D source radiation and the 2D FD calculation are minor for the relatively distant in-plane point explosive sources, but are more serious for the in-plane dislocation sources.     

Site-specific response spectra from the combination of microzonation with probabilistic seismic hazard assessment—An example for the Cologne (Germany) area

Seismic noise was measured at some 20 sites in the Cologne area (Germany) aligned nearly perpendicular to a graben structure. The H/V spectral noise ratio for each site was used to derive realistic S-wave velocity profiles down to the bedrock by means of a genetic algorithm inversion. Numerical simulations were performed for different combinations of source and propagation path parameters: focal depth, epicentral distance, attenuation and fault mechanism. Synthetic seismograms were produced and converted to Fourier and response spectra. Finally, the site-specific values from response spectral ratios, with their uncertainties, were used to modify attenuation functions entering the logic-tree algorithm of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). The site-specific response spectra show the significance of taking into account the local S-wave velocity structure in PSHA.     

Site response and source spectra of S waves in the Zagros region, Iran

S wave amplitude spectra from shallow earthquakes with magnitudes ranging between 4.2 and 6.2 in the Zagros region of Iran that occurred between 1998 and 2008 are used to examine source parameters and site response of S waves. A generalized inversion scheme has been used to separate the source, propagation path, and local site effects from S wave spectra. For removing the trade-off between source and site terms and propagation effects (including geometric and anelastic attenuation), the spectral amplitudes of the records used were corrected for attenuation and geometrical spreading function using a path model proposed by Zafarani and Soghrat (Bull Seism Soc Am 102:2031–2045, 2012) for the region. We assume a Brune’s point source model to retrieve source parameters like corner frequency, moment magnitude, and high-frequency fall off coefficient, for each event. When the source spectra are interpreted in terms of Brune’s model, the average stress drops obtained are about 7.1 and 5.9 MPa (71 and 59 bars), respectively for the eastern and western Zagros regions. Stress drops range from 1.4 to 35.0 MPa (14 to 350 bars), with no clear dependence on magnitude. The results in terms of stress drop and S wave seismic energy indicate that the Zagros events are more similar to interplate earthquakes of western North America than to intraplate events of eastern North America. The method also provides us with site responses for all 40 stations individually and is an interesting alternative to other methods, such as the H/V method. A new empirical relationship between body-wave magnitudes and moment magnitude has been proposed for the Iranian plateau using derived seismic moment from the inversion.     

安徽地区震源参数特征研究

根据安徽数字测震台网记录的23个地震波形事件,首先采用Atkinson方法得到安徽地区的非弹性衰减特征,再用Moya方法得到24个台站的场地响应。在此基础上,扣除传播路径、场地响应和仪器响应的影响,利用遗传算法得到2009年以来安徽测震台网记录的42个ML≥2.0地震的震源参数,并对这些震源参数特征进行了系统的分析与研究。研究结果表明,安徽地区地震的地震矩与近震震级之间存在较好的线性关系,近震震级与矩震级存在一定的偏差,应力降与近震震级存在明显的正相关,震级越大,拐角频率越小,震源破裂半径越大。     

Estimation on site-amplification from different methods using strong motion data obtained in Tangshan, China

Introduction It has been known that each soil type responds differently when it is subjected to ground mo-tion from earthquakes. So, the study of local site effects on seismic ground motions is one of the most important goals of earthquake engineering. It is practical importance to develop methods for assessing the nature and potential of sediment amplification, especially when choosing the location and design of critical and essential facilities. At present, however, the method by which site …     

Generation of hazard-consistent ground motion

This paper presents an integrated approach for evaluating seismic hazard and establishing ground motion at a site. In this approach, we combine the advantage of probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses and generate synthetic ground motion by considering the characteristics of seismic source, path attenuation, and local soil condition. Furthermore, uncertainties in seismic and soil parameters are taken into account. The proposed approach can be used to establish site-specific ground motion for engineering applications.