利用风云三号微波成像仪资料遥感“桑达”台风降雨云结构

本文利用搭载于我国风云三号B星上的微波成像仪(MWRI)观测亮温数据,结合戈达德廓线反演算法,对1102号"桑达"台风地面雨强和降雨云结构进行反演试验.利用AMSR-E业务降水产品对地面雨强反演结果进行了检验,结果表明,MWRI和AMSR-E反演的地面雨强在空间分布上非常吻合,相关性达76%,均方根误差约2.8 mm/h,二者的观测亮温及地面雨强反演结果具有较好的一致性.提取洋面台风雨区的平均水凝物廓线,其垂直结构显示,雨水和可降冰含量丰富,随高度变化明显,且具有明显峰值高度,云水和云冰含量则较少,且随高度变化不明显;当降水增强时,雨水和可降冰各层含量稳定增加,且峰值高度基本保持不变,云水和云冰含量则增幅不稳,且峰值高度有所改变.地面雨强随距台风中心距离的变化阐释了台风的螺旋结构及降水特点,距台风中心距离0.3°和0.6°附近分别出现了地面雨强峰值和次峰值,且66%的降水集中在距台风中心距离1°的空间范围内.MWRI提供的台风地面雨强和降雨云垂直信息具有较高的可信度,对于我们监测台风降水、分析台风降水结构的时空演变特征以及数值预报模式应用等具有重要的参考价值.     

EnKF同化雷达资料对一次极端局地强降水事件预报影响及其可预报性分析

局地强降水可以引发山洪、泥石流等次生灾害,目前准确预报局地强降水依然是天气预报业务的难点.本文针对一次发生在西北太平洋副热带高压边缘、导致12人死亡的极端局地强降水事件,利用集合卡尔曼滤波(En KF)开展多普勒雷达径向风观测资料同化试验,并对En KF同化过程不确定性进行分析.结果表明:不同化观测资料,采用单一初值的确定性预报或增加初值扰动、采用多物理过程的集合预报均不能正确预报强降水发生位置,而利用En KF同化雷达径向速度观测资料能有效改进确定性和集合预报效果,特别是强降水位置预报.通过En KF同化雷达资料,建立深厚的中尺度对流系统是改进降水预报效果的直接原因.在具备了对流发生条件的大尺度环境背景场中,上游地区、对流层中下层经向风和水汽场的合理扰动是影响同化过程和降水预报的关键因素.该个例预报过程受实际可预报性影响,具有不确定性,大尺度初始条件的差异或初始扰动场振幅偏小导致的En KF分析场差异都会对模拟结果造成较大影响,而采用En KF循环同化有助于提高该个例的预报准确性.敏感性试验还表明未来通过改进数值模式或改善观测系统,提供更准确观测信息,可以对此类短时强降水事件做出更准确预报.     

地震学定量预报指标的一种提取方法——对比筛选法

鉴于目前地震学综合定量预报指标的缺乏和预报工作的急需,尝试使用“对比筛选法(简称CSM方法)”进行地震学定量预报指标的提取试验。较之以往作法的进展在于:1.同时使用“有震”和“无震”两类样本对比筛选;2.对不同地区的地震学参数进行了归一化处理。这样做的显著优点是:1.可以较有效地提取“有震异常”和“正常变化”指标;2.提取的异常和预报指标具有定量化和普适性特点。 试验研究使用大华北地震区资料,研究对象取中强地震。经内符和外推检验,证明该方法提取的异常和预报指标有效性和实用性较高。     

LTP_DSEF模型对2018年登陆中国热带气旋强降水预报的应用

最近,一种基于路径相似的登陆热带气旋降水动力统计集合预报(LTP_DSEF)模型被发展用来预报登陆热带气旋(LTC)带来的强降水.文章把LTP_DSEF模型应用于2018年登陆中国的10个热带气旋(TC)的强过程降水预报,通过测试模型的3452套预报方案确定了对这10个LTC的最佳方案,然后将其性能与三家动力模式(ECMWF、GFS和GRAPES)进行对比.结果表明:LTP_DSEF模型在预报LTC的较强过程降水方面与三家动力模式相比很有优势,特别是预报250mm以上量级的过程降水;对单TC, LTP_DSEF模型预报LTC过程降水的能力优于或者略逊于三家动力模式,特别在三家动力模式对某些TC的强降水均无预报能力时,模型仍能提供宝贵的大于零的TS值;此外虽然与实况相比该模型预测的强降水范围倾向偏大,但它在多数情况下能合理地捕捉到强降水的落区.初步研究表明,尽管LTP_DSEF模型只引入了TC路径和登陆时间两个相似性变量,但它已能为LTC的强过程降水预报提供非常有用的指导.     

我国中东部地区夏季中尺度对流系统形成前物理量诊断分析

利用2008—2010年夏季(6—8月)FY-2地球静止卫星红外云图资料识别出我国中东部地区(110°E—124°E,27°N—40°N)共208个中尺度对流系统(mesoscale convective system,MCS)和174个不能增长发展成为MCS的普通雷暴群(widespread convections,WCS).提取MCS形成前约6h和WCS成熟时(个数最多)的NCEP再分析资料(时间间隔6h,空间分辨率1°×1°),通过对表征水汽、动力和热力等条件的基本物理量和一些常用衍生物理量采用平均值、标准差等常用统计方法、动态合成和评估方法逐步筛选和分析诊断两种系统环境物理量场,最终从众多物理量中挑选出了能显著区别两种系统的物理量(即MCS形成的关键物理量),分别为强天气威胁指数、修正的K指数、地面抬升指数、2m比湿和0~3km垂直风切变,希望对预报我国中东部地区MCS发生与否提供一定的科学依据.     

基于年代际突变分量的东亚夏季降水动力-统计预报方案研究

基于1983~2011年CMAP降水数据分析,揭示东亚及其近海地区(简称东亚)的夏季降水距平在1999年前后由"+-+"型分布(由北至南)调整为"-+-"型分布,且这种年代际变化主要体现在EOF第3模态中;而在国家气候中心海气耦合模式(BCC_CGCM)回报和预报资料中,1999年前后则由"+-+-"分布型(由北至南)调整为"-+-+"型,即BCC_CGCM对降水年代际分布的预报与实况有较大差别.同时,结合EOF年代际突变分量给出了全球海温场与东亚夏季降水年代际变化有显著联系的关键海区,分析了BCC_CGCM对关键区海温的预报能力及对应的东亚夏季降水预报效果的差异,验证了基于关键区海温指数对改进模式预报结果的可能性.在此基础上,给出了基于年代际突变分量的东亚夏季降水动力-统计预报方案研究,并进行独立样本回报.结果表明,基于V区海温指数订正结果的距平相关系数(ACC)达到了0.25,距平符号一致率(ACR)达到61%,7个区域订正结果平均的ACC为0.03和ACR为51%,较BCC_CGCM模式结果的-0.01和49%均有一定的改进;且订正后1999年前后两个时段降水距平的空间分布和纬圈平均演变均体现了降水型由"+-+"向"-+-"调整的特征.因此,基于海温关键区指数的动力-统计相结合的预报方案能够增加模式对东亚夏季降水的季节预报结果中的年代际变化信息.     

超强台风Soudelor(2015)登陆前后局地强降水的动力过程分析

基于中尺度站点观测、雷达图像、卫星红外云图和NCEP全球业务分析数据资料,详细分析了2015年13号台风Soudelor在华东地区尤其在浙江省沿海产生局地灾害性强降水的分布、强度、触发因子及相应的动力过程.这次台风降水过程可分为4个阶段:第一阶段由台风北侧外围环流偏东风分量与浙江沿海地形相互作用而产生;第二阶段的降水强度最强,累积降水最大,是台风内区主体环流与局地地形相互作用的结果;第三阶段是由于台风内区减弱,主要降水云带在台风东北侧发展而形成;第四阶段由于台风环流与中纬度系统相互作用,使得降水云带"北跳"至江苏省中东部,引起浙江省内的降水迅速减弱.定量计算表明,"地形效应"对局地台风降水增幅起确定性作用,其在台风总体降水中占比达50%左右.台风登陆后结构变化引起水汽输送发生变化,进而引起台风局地降水云带发展的非对称分布,是造成台风强降水空间非对称分布的主要因子.对此个例分析表明,影响中国沿海灾害性强降水不仅与台风强度、结构及外围云带紧密相关,其降水强度会因为台风与沿海地形的复杂相互作用而增加,而其影响时间会因为由大尺度环流引导的弧线路径而延长.此次台风强降水过程的物理及动力分析可以用于指导对未来台风降水灾害的理解、预报及预防,尤其有益于由登陆台风与沿海地形相互作用引起的闪雨、山洪、泥石流及洪涝灾害的预报预警.     

MM5V3模式对IPCCA1B情景下中国地区极端事件的模拟和预估

利用MM5V3区域气候模式单向嵌套ECHAM5全球环流模式,对中国地区1978-2000年及IPCC A1B情景下2038-2070年气候分别进行了水平分辨率为50 km的模拟试验.文章首先检验了模式模拟的当代极端气候结果,在此基础上对6个极端温度指数和6个极端降水指数的未来变化进行了预估.检验结果表明:MM5V3模式对中国地区当代日最高、最低温度及强降水(大雨和暴雨)日数的空间分布和概率特征均具有一定的模拟能力,但模拟的日最高温度在大部分地区偏低,日最低温度在南方地区偏低、西北地区偏高.概率统计结果显示日最高温度向低值频段偏移,日最低温度在0℃的峰值附近明显偏高.模式对大雨和暴雨年平均日数的模拟在东部地区偏多,概率统计结果则为一致偏大.未来中国地区极端气候预估结果表明:极端高温、极端低温和相对高温在全国范围内都将升高,且线性趋势均为上升;霜日日数则为减少,并具有下降趋势;暖日日数和相对低温在青藏高原和新疆部分地区有所减少、其它地区均为增加,且线性趋势暖日日数为上升,相对低温不明显.极端降水指数的变化具有区域特征,其中单日最大降水、连续五日最大降水、最长无雨期、强降水日数、简单降水强度和极端降水总量均在江淮、华南及西南地区有所增多,而在东北及内蒙古地区有所减少,未来中国南方地区降水的极端化趋势将更加显著.极端降水指数的线性趋势除最长无雨期外其它均为上升.     

基于耿贝尔—线性矩和K-Means算法的短时强降水等级划分研究

短时强降水地域特点突出，致灾性强，是气象防灾减灾的重点和难点.本文基于1951—2021年国家气象观测站逐小时降水资料，采用耿贝尔—线性矩法拟合2215个国家气象观测站的1 h、3 h、6 h短时强降水的重现期分布，统计显示99%以上的国家气象观测站分布函数通过0.05显著性检验；同时，根据我国防洪标准、室外排水设计规范及中央气象台山洪预警等标准，将短时强降水按照重现期2 a、20 a、50 a、100 a划分为一般、较强、强、特强四个等级.然后，采用K-Means算法，应用耿贝尔函数的位置参数和尺度参数、短时降水的百分位值和极值等变量聚类，将我国划分为三个短时强降水区，量化了三个区的短时强降水等级并应用2019—2021年70490个区域自动观测站和国家气象观测站监测统计验证了合理性.研究成果可以满足气象业务应用需求，也为气象监测、预报预警和影响评估提供技术支撑.     

近50a淮河流域汛期降水日数和强度的分布与变化特征

选用1961-2010年淮河流域145个地面气象站的观测资料,分析淮河流域汛期(5-9月)降水的时空变化规律.结果表明:淮河流域汛期降水的空间分布不仅受到地理位置和地形的影响,而且与湿度和风速的空间分布具有较好的相关性;在时间变化上,雨日出现频率有下降的趋势,但暴雨日比重和暴雨日平均降水量均有升高的趋势.淮河流域汛期暴雨日出现频率以及各类型雨日的平均降水量均有上升的趋势,强降水时空变化呈现局地性和频发性.     

Extreme precipitation events in East China and associated moisture transport pathways

Interannual variation of summer precipitation in East China, and frequency of rainstorms during the monsoon season from 1961 to 2010, are analyzed in this study. It is found that the two variables show opposite trends on a decadal time scale: frequency of rainstorms increases significantly after the 1990s, while summer precipitation in East China decreases during the same period. Analysis of the spatial distribution of summer rainstorm frequency from 1961 to 2010 indicates that it decreases from the southeast to the northwest at the east edge of the large-scale topography associated with the plateaus. Spatial distribution of rainstorms with daily rainfall greater than 50 mm is characterized by a “high in the southeast and low in the northwest” pattern, similar to the staircase distribution of the topography. However, the spatial distribution of variation in both summer precipitation and frequency of extreme rainstorms under global warming differs significantly from the three-step staircase topography. It is shown that moisture characteristics of summer precipitation and extreme rainstorms during the monsoon season in East China, including moisture transport pathways, moist flow pattern, and spatial structure of the merging area of moist flows, differ significantly. Areas of frequent rainstorms include the Yangtze River Valley and South China. Column- integrated moisture transport and its spatial structure could be summarized as a “merging” of three branches of intense moist flows from low and middle latitude oceans, and “convergence” of column-integrated moisture fluxes. The merging area for moist flow associated with rainstorms in the high frequency region is located slightly to the south of the monsoonal precipitation or non-rainstorm precipitation, with significantly strong moisture convergence. In addition, the summer moist flow pattern in East China has a great influence on the frequency of extreme rainstorms. Moisture flux vectors in the region of frequent rainstorms correspond to vortical flow pattern. A comparison of moisture flux vectors associated with non-rainstorms and rainstorms indicates that the moist vortex associated with rainstorms is smaller in size and located to the south of the precipitation maximum, while the moist vortex associated with non-rainstorms is larger and located to the north. It is shown that column- integrated moist transport vortices and the structure of moist flux convergence have significant impacts on the north-south oscillation of frequent rainstorm areas in East China, which is synchronized with the maximum vorticity of moisture transport and the minimum of convergence on the decadal time scale. Synthesis of moisture transport pathways and related circulation impacts leads to a conceptual model of moisture flow associated with rainstorms.     

柘林水库修河流域降水时空分布特征与旱涝研究

根据1953—1983年降水资料,分析了柘林水库修河流域降水时空分布特征和旱涝规律。降水主要集中在6月中、下旬,有时可推迟到7月中旬,此时暴雨频数高,强度大,历时长,是柘林水库洪水运行管理的关键时期。为此,需要了解梅雨晚期发生的大暴雨的形成条件和时空分布,以及梅雨期旱涝情况和采用预报的风险程度。本文在这方面进行了一些综合性分析,特别是对5,6月旱涝年份的统计规律、环流特征作了较详细的气候学对比研究。     

中尺度模式积云参数化方案的改进及其在暴雨模拟中的应用

本文针对中国暴雨发生发展天气特征,改进和发展了一种适合于描述东亚暴雨的中尺度积云参数化方案.首先基于近年来(1990—2010)江淮流域汛期降水合成分析的基础上,诊断出组织化对流降水环境的动力参数;其次利用该动力参数作为动力控制条件,改进了Kain-Fritsch Eta中尺度积云对流参数化方案;最后利用改进的中尺度积云参数化方案对梅雨期暴雨、华南前汛期暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,结果表明:改进后的中尺度积云参数化方案对上述两次暴雨过程的落区及强度的模拟,均有明显改进.     

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July–August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965–1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000–2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965–2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%–70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421406), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005, 40775049) and Excellent Ph. D Dissertation in Chinese Academy of Sciences     

变网格大气模式对1998年东亚夏季风异常的模拟研究

本文利用法国国家科研中心(CNRS)动力气象实验室(LMD)发展的可变网格的格点大气环流模式LMDZ4,对1998年东亚夏季降水进行了模拟,考查了变网格模式对东亚夏季降水的模拟性能.结果表明,模式在一定程度上能模拟出东亚夏季降水的极大值中心、夏季风雨带以及降水由东南向西北递减的空间分布特征.模式基本再现了1998年夏季两次雨带的进退特征,包括降水强度、雨带范围等,从而合理再现了1998年夏季江淮地区的"二度梅"现象.与观测相比,模拟的不足在于:在陡峭地形区附近存在虚假降水;江淮和华北地区以及四川盆地存在水汽输送的气旋式辐合偏差,同时高层环流辐散偏强,使得下层暖湿空气辐合上升、降水偏多;在东南地区存在反气旋式的水汽输送偏差,30°N以南地区降水偏少.对于1998年的"二度梅"现象,模拟偏差主要表现为长江中下游地区两次(特别是第二次)较强降水持续时间偏短,强降水范围偏小,而黄淮和华南地区却降水偏多.分析表明,模式对两次梅雨期降水的模拟偏差直接受环流形势模拟偏差的影响.LMDZ4区域模式版本的特点一是区域加密,二是加密区内预报场每10天向再分析资料恢复一次.敏感试验结果表明,LMDZ4加密区向强迫场的10天尺度恢复总体上有利于提高模式对华北降水的模拟能力,而对长江流域和华南降水的模拟具有不利影响.较之均匀网格模拟试验,加密试验由于在东亚的分辨率大大提高,对东亚夏季降水模拟效果更好.     

长江流域近50年降水变化及其对干流洪水的影响

根据我国长江流域气象观测站近42年的资料,分析了整个流域年和季节平均面雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨量的变化特征,以及降水对流域径流和洪水的影响.长江流域年和夏季平均面雨量存在明显的年际和年代变化特征,也表现出比较显著的趋势变化特点.大部分测站年平均面雨量呈增加趋势,夏季和冬季平均面雨量的增加趋势尤其明显;秋季平均面雨量呈显著下降趋势.同时,年和夏季暴雨日数和暴雨量也在较大范围内呈显著增加趋势.长江流域的降水对干流平均流量具有重要影响.1973年、1983年和1998年的洪水主要是由明显高于平均的流域面雨量引起的;长江下游平均流量变化趋势也同流域年平均面雨量、夏季平均面雨量变化趋势基本一致,特别是70年代末以来,下游平均流量和流域面雨量的上升趋势更加明显,并同时在1998年达到最高值.长江流域大的丰水年一般对应El Nino年或El Nino次年,表明E1 Nino对长江较大洪水可能具有一定影响.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…     

Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical study of the rainstorm characteristics of the June 2005 flash flood with WRF/GSI data assimilation system over south‐east China

The evolution and structure of rainstorms associated with a flash‐flood event are simulated by the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF‐ARW) model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States. The event is based on a flash flood that occurred in the central Guangdong Province of south‐east China during 20–21 June 2005. Compared to an hourly mixed rain‐gauge and satellite‐retrieved precipitation data, the model shows the capability to reproduce the intensity and location of rainfall; however, the simulation depends on three conditions to a large extent: model resolution, physical processes schemes and initial condition. In this case, the Eta Ferrier microphysics scheme and the initialization with satellite radiance DA with a fine 4‐km grid spacing nested grid and coarse 12‐km grid spacing outer grid are the best options. The model‐predicted rain rates, however, are slightly overestimated, and the activities of the storms do not precisely correspond with those observed, although peak values are obtained. Abundant moisture brought by the south‐westerly winds with a mesoscale low‐level jet from the South China Sea or Bay of Bengal and trapped within the XingfengJiang region encompassed by northern Jiulian, southern Lianhua and eastern small mountains are apparently the primary elements responsible for the flood event. All simulated rainstorms were initiated over the southern slopes of the Jiulian Mountain and moved south or north‐eastward within the Xingfengjiang region. Meanwhile, the Skew‐T/Log‐P diagrams show that there is a fairly high convective available potential energy (CAPE) over the active areas of the rainstorms. The higher CAPE provides a beneficial thermodynamic condition for the development of rainstorms, but the higher convective inhibition near the northern, eastern and southern mountains prohibits the storms from moving out of the region and causes heavy rainfall that is trapped within the area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840

Three tree-ring rainfall reconstructions from China and Korea are used in this paper to investigate the East Asian summer monsoon-related precipitation variation over the past 160 years. Statistically, there is no linear correlation on a year-by-year basis between Chinese and Korean monsoon rainfall, but region-wide synchronous variation on a decadal-scale was observed. More rainfall intervals were 1860–1890, 1910–1925, and 1940–1960, and dry or even drought periods were 1890–1910, 1925–1940, and 1960–present. Reconstructions also display that the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation suddenly changed from more into less around mid-1920. These tree-ring precipitation records were also confirmed by Chinese historical dryness/wetness index and Korean historical rain gauge data.