基于脆性理论的灾害作用下生命线系统耦联分析

一个城市或地区的承灾能力主要看其基础设施的承灾能力,其中最重要的一个部分就是生命线系统的承灾能力。在分析评价生命线系统承灾能力时,不仅要考察复杂性、均衡性和可靠性这些网络特征,还要考虑各子系统间的关联性。这种关联对生命线系统整体的承灾能力有削弱作用。根据复杂系统脆性理论的思想和脆性联系熵的方法,提出了用系统综合脆性联系熵来反映和评价生命线系统整体的关联特性,并通过判断各子系统间的相互影响关系,量化了生命线系统整体的易损性。经耦联关系分析和计算,灾害破坏下,从生命线系统相互作用来看,电力系统受其他子系统的影响最大;而由于供水系统的关键性和其影响方式的不确定性,灾后首先要恢复的是供水系统的工作或供给。证明了该方法为优化系统组织管理、控制灾后的修复工作和协调子系统间的关系提供了依据。     

地震灾场模拟及救援虚拟仿真训练系统研究

实践证明,开展地震紧急救援工作是防震减灾的关键举措之一,是震后最大程度减少人员伤亡的必要政府行为。"科学救援"是现代救援的重要理念,如何确保"双安全",即幸存者和救援人员本身的安全是救援行动中最为重要的问题。救援技能和水平的提高依靠科学的培训,现实的情况往往无法不断提供大震巨灾的模拟训练环境,而虚拟仿真技术可以构建出逼真的虚拟震灾场景和救援废墟环境。不同规模的虚拟地震灾场,能让救援队员了解严酷的真实救援环境,并可根据具体虚拟废墟开展救援策略和方法的研讨。由此可见,开展灾场模拟和虚拟仿真训练系统对救援训练来说,具有极其重要的现实意义。本文对地震灾害场景仿真模拟技术与方法、地震救援虚拟仿真训练系统等开展初步的探索性研究。主要研究内容摘要如下:     

5·12汶川地震灾评工作中的几点认识

由于汶川地震是新中国成立以来破坏性最强、地震灾害最重、救灾难度最大、波及范围最广的一次地震,在其地震灾评工作中产生了不同于以往地震灾评的诸多问题。针对这些问题,首先给出了汶川地震灾评简况。其次,简单说明了作者参加灾评工作的日程安排。最后,对灾评工作中存在的问题,如烈度评定、生命线宏观损失、抗震设防目标、人员死亡分布等进行了探讨,并给出了几点想法和认识。     

5·12汶川地震灾评工作中的几点认识

由于汶川地震是新中国成立以来破坏性最强、地震灾害最重、救灾难度最大、波及范围最广的一次地震,在其地震灾评工作中产生了不同于以往地震灾评的诸多问题。针对这些问题,首先给出了汶川地震灾评简况。其次,简单说明了作者参加灾评工作的日程安排。最后,对灾评工作中存在的问题,如烈度评定、生命线宏观损失、抗震设防目标、人员死亡分布等进行了探讨,并给出了几点想法和认识。     

地震灾害损失评估软件开发

以基于Windows操作系统的MapX标准控件作为基本开发组件,Delphi7语言作为集成开发环境,Access作为外接数据库,考虑近年来地震灾害损失评估内容的新变化,并结合最新的地震现场工作规范和云南省地震现场工作的实际,开发了新的地震灾害损失评估软件.该软件涵盖了当前灾评计算的全部内容,输入、查询、修改、计算等界面直观、方便,计算结果可直接以Word表格形式输出,可大大节省地震灾评报告的编写时间,从而提高地震现场灾评工作的效率.     

地震灾后区域无人机GPS遥感定位技术研究

传统基于云计算的地理位置定位方法进行目标定位时需要分析大量的地理数据信息,造成目标定位过程复杂且容易出现定位差错。提出新的地震灾后区域无人机GPS遥感定位方法,其功能包括遥感传感子系统、遥感空中控制子系统、无人机平台、无人机地面控制子系统、三维模型影像重建以及目标定位分析。重建地震灾区的三维影像模型时,先提取地震灾区的DEM数据,将无人机GPS遥感测量得到的影像纹理映射到DEM上,构建地震灾区的三维地物模型;目标定位分析采用测距目标定位法,利用无人机在不同位置对目标进行定位分析,实现对地震灾后区域的定位分析,得到目标的坐标结果。实验结果说明,所提方法能提高目标定位的精度,缩短目标定位用时。     

云南地区房屋建筑面积的统计和调查结果

统计了云南省近年22次灾评报告的相关数据,给出云南地区人均房屋建筑面积、各系统房屋建筑面积比例、各结构类型房屋建筑面积比例的统计结果,并计算得出3个典型县区上述几组数据关系的调查结果.数据关系的调查结果可运用于今后的地震灾害损失快速评估、初评估和对最终评估结果的可靠性判定工作中.     

上海市地震局2种视频系统的比较

"十五"地震应急指挥技术系统视频子系统是通过矩阵、多屏图像控制器进行传输和显示的,而新建成的上海市地震局防震减灾支撑系统视频子系统完全摒弃了这种视频传输和显示方式,而是使用比较先进的DVCS分布式图像控制系统。主要介绍上海市地震局这2种视频系统的结构,比较他们各自的优缺点及局限性,提出更适合未来信息化发展需求的地震行业视频系统。     

消息

▲1981年4月,四川省地震局举办第二期地震群测群防业务技术培训班,参加培训的学员有41人。培训班结业前,各学科进行了考试,多数学员取得了良好的成绩。▲1981年5月上旬,四川省地震局在成都召开了部份科研项目方案论证会,对一些科研项目的技术经济意义进行评定、审议和建议。     

基于FusionCompute的地震行业网私有云平台部署与实现

针对传统地震数据机房存在业务扩展成本高且周期长、维护繁琐、无法保障重要业务系统的无故障连续运作等问题,采用虚拟化云计算技术,实现地震行业网的私有云服务。华为FusionCompute云服务系统将主机、存储等物理资源虚拟化,并整合为统一资源,供多个虚拟机使用,行业专网内运维人员通过用户接口远程访问云平台,在虚拟机上可快速、高效地按需搭建业务系统。地震私有云平台不仅减少业务扩展运营期间的设备采购、系统搭建、运行维护等人力和物力投入,且通过FusionCompute的迁移技术,实现业务系统的"零宕机"服务。     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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Distribution of throughfall and stemflow in multi‐strata agroforestry,perennial monoculture,fallow and primary forest in central Amazonia,Brazil

The partitioning of rain water into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss when passing through plant canopies depends on properties of the respective plant species, such as leaf area and branch angles. In heterogeneous vegetation, such as tropical forest or polycultural systems, the presence of different plant species may consequently result in a mosaic of situations with respect to quantity and quality of water inputs into the soil. As these processes influence not only the water availability for the plants, but also water infiltration and nutrient leaching, the understanding of plant effects on the repartitioning of rain water may help in the optimization of land use systems and management practices. We measured throughfall and stemflow in a perennial polyculture (multi‐strata agroforestry), monocultures of peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) for fruit and for palmito, a monoculture of cupuaçu (Theobroma grandiflorum), spontaneous fallow and primary forest during one year in central Amazonia, Brazil. The effect on rain water partitioning was measured separately for four useful tree species in the polyculture and for two tree species in the primary forest. Throughfall at two stem distances, and stemflow, differed significantly between tree species, resulting in pronounced spatial patterns of water input into the soil in the polyculture system. For two tree species, peach palm for fruit (Bactris gasipaes) and Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa), the water input into the soil near the stem was significantly higher than the open‐area rainfall. This could lead to increased nutrient leaching when fertilizer is applied close to the stem of these trees. In the primary forest, such spatial patterns could also be detected, with significantly higher water input near a palm (Oenocarpus bacaba) than near a dicotyledonous tree species (Eschweilera sp.). Interception losses were 6·4% in the polyculture, 13·9 and 12·3% in the peach palm monocultures for fruit and for palmito, respectively, 0·5% in the cupuaçu monoculture and 3·1% in the fallow. With more than 20% of the open‐area rainfall, the highest stemflow contributions to the water input into the soil were measured in the palm monocultures and in the fallow. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Anthropogenic Eutrophication and Red Tide Outbreak in Lacustrine Systems of the Kashmir Himalaya

Red tide, a recurrent phenomenon has become conspicuous in several Kashmir lake ecosystems since 1991. The responsible organism (Euglena pedunculata), a rare flagellate rediscovered in the Kashmir Himalaya (Khan 1993) caused first and unprecedented red tide outbreak, constituting a maximum of 96% of resident numerical phytoplankton density in Dal Lake. At present, conflicting hypotheses exist on the generation of causal assemblage(s) imparting redness to waters: Jeeji Bai (1991) linked its origin to acid precipitation – a fallout of burning oil‐fields during the Gulf War – whilst Khan (1993) holds local factor(s) responsible. Field/experimental studies support the latter contention that the influx of untreated sewage, in unison with warm temperatures, high levels of PhAR, iron and interruption to hydrological flow‐pattern together with absence/or reduction in grazing activity created conducive environmental milieu for red tide outbreak. Dal Lake “red tide” drifted the bloom‐inoculum to other waters, including Lake Wular, where additional ecological niches were carved out, threatening the aesthetic value and biological diversity of Kashmir lakes. Ecological monitoring indicates frequent seasonal red tide occurrence in Dal Lake (including summer‐autumn event of 1998) which testifies its unabated eutrophication status. Further studies are needed on ecological adaptability and biogeographic distribution of this rare and unique red tide‐causing flagellate.