大中小震与抗震设防标准

讨论二级抗震设计与超越概率标准、概率法与综合概率法给出的3个水平的地震动的关系. 通过危险性分析的实际例子,讨论了50年超越概率2%、10%和63%的地震动,即大震、中震和小震的相对大小关系,并提出抗震设防标准的确定方法.      

基于数学建模的潜在地震破裂面源检测方法研究

大多数地震破裂面源检测方法都是通过简化地震震源,将地震震源表示成线源或者点源,无法有效描述地震带地震破裂面源产状和大小,不适用地震震级较大的情况下地震危险性检测。因此提出基于数学建模的潜在地震破裂面源检测方法,在地震震级较大时仍能检测出地震危险性概率。选取适宜的地震基岩水平峰值加速度衰减关系,分析地震震级、破裂长度、破裂宽度相互关系,确定地震引起的潜在地震破裂面源大小,计算给定地震动小于在场点处产生地震动的概率,将该概率同地震动加速度衰减关系结合,得到地震动年超越概率,分析地震危险性。经过实验检测发现,所提方法检测出的年超越概率与峰值加速度、最大震级有关,该概率能精准表示地震带地震破裂面源产状和大小,说明该方法检测地震危险性是合理的。     

概率一致设定地震及其估计方法

本文首先讨论已有的主凤定地震的概念及其存在的问题，然后提出一在指定场点产生超越概率为Ｐ０、地震动强度为ｙ（ｐ０）的潜在震源区的概率一致设定地震的定义及其震级Ｍ（ｐ０）震中距Ｒ（ｐ０）震中的确定方法。     

Study on the Relationship of Seismic Design Ground Motion at Different Fortification Levels in the Xinjiang Region

The seismic risk analysis results of 79 cities in Xinjiang are presented, and the bedrock peak ground accelerations under three seismic levels and their ratios are discussed. Then, the relationship between earthquake environments and the seismic risk analysis results of different exceeding probabilities are researched. The results show that minor and major earthquake motion parameters calculated from moderate earthquakes do not have a consistent probability and the ratio of bedrock peak accelerations under different exceedance probabilities are closely correlated with earthquake environments.     

不同设防标准RC框架结构基于易损性分析的抗震性能评估

借助非线性动力时程分析,对严格按照规范Ⅶ、Ⅷ、Ⅸ度设计的5个三跨6层钢筋混凝土框架结构开展易损性分析,建立了基于峰值加速度的易损性曲线。从易损性的角度对不同设防标准RC框架结构的抗震性能做了定量评价,并探讨了设防标准对RC框架结构易损性的影响。分析表明,对应于设防小震、中震及大震水平的峰值加速度,结构“小震不坏”、“中震可修”和“大震不倒”的失效概率均在18%以内,可认为结构满足三水准的性态控制目标。随着结构设防标准的提高,其易损性随之降低,相同峰值加速度对应的各个破坏状态的超越概率均有所降低。此外,将框架结构的设防烈度提高1度,其“大震不倒”的失效概率会明显减小。而将框架结构的设防烈度降低1度,其“大震不倒”的失效概率会显著增加,最高可达4倍。     

Discussion on uncertainties，attenuation of ground motion and aseismic design criterion

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保定市设计地震动参数的研究

本文根据保定市及周围地区的地震地质环境，在地震危险性分析的基础上，采用等效线性一维波动方程进行土层的地震反应分析。给出50年超越概率63％、10％、2％基岩和地面的水平向峰值加速度、反应谱（场址基本烈度Ⅶ度）和地震影响系数最大值。该结果为抗震设计提供了可靠依据，具有应用价值。     

Simulation of risk-consistent earthquake motion

A method to combine probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and stochastic earthquake motion models is presented. A set of parameters characterizing stochastic earthquake motion models is determined on a consistent probabilistic basis. The method proposed herein consists of two steps. First, the ground motion intensity is determined in the context of the conventional hazard curve technique. Next, other ground motion parameters such as duration, predominant frequency and spectral shape parameters are determined as conditional means corresponding to the annual probability of exceedance for the ground motion intensity. Some example applications are presented.     

考虑地震构造背景的地震活动性参数光滑方法在地震危险性概率评价中的应用

本文选取华北地震区作为研究区域,尝试利用空间光滑活动模型进行地震危险性评估.首先对研究区域进行划分网格,依据地震构造和地震空间分布特征建立地震构造模型,确定构造区特征参数(b值、M0、Mu、断层方位角及M-L关系等).采用考虑了地震构造背景的椭圆光滑过程的地震活动参数模型,计算各网格点的地震发生率.并利用网格源的地震危险性概率评价方法,由不同输入地震目录通过综合加权得到该区域50年超越概率10％的加速度峰值区划结果.该方法充分体现了地震活动的空间非均一性,尤其适用于发震构造不甚清晰的中强地震可能造成的地震危险性,避免了常规潜在震源区的划分.且评价方法简单快捷,为地震区划以及重大工程地震安全性评价工作提供了新的技术方法.     

Identification of critical ground motions for seismic performance assessment of structures

A method is established to identify critical earthquake ground motions that are to be used in physical testing or subsequent advanced computational studies to enable seismic performance to be assessed. The ground motion identification procedure consists of: choosing a suitable suite of ground motions and an appropriate intensity measure; selecting a computational tool and modelling the structure accordingly; performing Incremental Dynamic Analysis on a non‐linear model of the structure; interpreting these results into 50th (median) and 90th percentile performance bounds; and identifying the critical ground motions that are close to these defining probabilistic curves at ground motion intensities corresponding to the design basis earthquake and the maximum considered earthquake. An illustrative example of the procedure is given for a reinforced concrete highway bridge pier designed to New Zealand specifications. Pseudodynamic tests and finite element based time history analyses are performed on the pier using three earthquake ground motions identified as: (i) a Design Basis Earthquake (10% probability in 50 years) with 90 percent confidence of non‐exceedance; (ii) a Maximum Considered Event (2% probability in 50 years) representing a median response; and (iii) a Maximum Considered Event representing 90 percent confidence of non‐exceedance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震荷载作用下兰州地铁隧道结构动力响应

根据《兰州轨道交通1号线一期工程地震安全性评价报告》所给出的100年超越概率63%、10%和2%的场地基岩地震加速度时程,利用有限差分软件进行地下隧道硐室的地震反应分析。在模型底部施加基岩地震动,设置监测点监测衬砌结构的弯矩、轴力及剪力随时间的变化过程,得到100年超越概率63%、10%及2%工况下的隧道结构地震响应。结果表明:隧道衬砌结构最大弯矩位于拱顶处,最大轴力位于拱顶和拱底处,最大剪力位于上侧壁或下侧壁处;隧道结构内力随着超越概率的降低而增大;以超越概率63%的结构最大内力为基准值,在超越概率10%和2%时,弯矩分别增大1.2和1.7倍,轴力分别增大1.3和1.5倍,剪力分别增大1.5和2.9倍,增幅最大。这可能预示着隧道结构在强地震动作用下会发生剪切破坏。     

黄土场地地震液化研究

通过往返加荷动三轴试验，对兰州某民用机场扩建工程场地的饱和黄土和砂土进行了液化试验。在试验结果的基础上，运用抗液化剪应力判别方法、地震危险性分析计算结果以及根据有限元一维模型计算求得的该场地的地震剪应力，对该场地饱和黄土和砂土的地震液化进行了综合判断。结果表明，在未来遭受到50年10％超越概率的地震作用时，该场地的饱和黄土比饱和砂土更容易发生液化。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal

The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.     

工程场址地震危险性分析的概率计算

将南天山地震带西段(喀什—柯坪)和西昆仑地震带作为统计单元,确定了各单元及所属潜在震源区的地震活动性参数。利用新疆地区的地震烈度衰减公式和美国西部地区的烈度、加速度衰减公式,推算了新疆地区的加速度衰减公式。根据时空非均匀地震危险性的概率计算方法,计算了阿尔塔什、公格尔、下坂地三项工程场址的地震烈度和地动加速度超越概率。     

Evaluation for Earthquake Liquefaction of Loess Sites

ugh the sinusoid loading dynamic triaxial test, the liquefaction property of saturated loess and sand selected from a civil airport of Lanzhou, Gansu is examined. Based on the laboratory results, a comprehensive assessment on the earthquake liquefaction potential of the loess and sand is given, using the liquefaction resistance shear stress method and the results of seismic hazard assessment. It is found that under the effect of ground motion with exceedance probability of 10% within 50 years, the loess in the study is more susceptible to liquefaction than sand.     

河北廊坊地区的设定地震灾害评估

本文对1700年以来的历史地震烈度资料进行了分析,并结合地震地质资料来确定设定地震(Scenario Earthquake),然后利用模拟强地面运动确定了廊坊地区的强地面运动灾害.研究结果表明,按照目前的地震活动趋势,廊坊地区出现大于或等于地震烈度8度的周期大约是600年.也就是说,在未来50年廊坊地区出现地震烈度8度的超越概率为8％.为此,本文建议廊坊地区应该考虑0.3g峰值加速度(Ⅷ度)作为基本地震工程设计参数.     

关于一般建筑物抗震设防标准问题

工程场地的设计地震动参数,目前多用概率地震危险性分析的方法给出。场地的地震基本烈度以设计基准期T=50年、加速度超越概率P=0.1的标准确定。本文根据广东省数地地震危险性分析结果结合我国常见的砖混结构的地震动参数的优化决策,认为上述标准宜取为T=50年、P=0.05—0.1。     

山东地区地震危险性空间分布特征研究

概述山东省及其周边的地震环境,并以地震危险性概率分析方法研究山东地区峰值地震加速度空间分布特征。分析不同超越概率水准的峰值地震加速度的比值。结果表明,不同超越概率水准的地震危险性分析结果的比例关系对地震环境具有明显的依赖特征,且总体上服从对数正态概率分布。     

Use of Seismotectonic Information for the Seismic Hazard Analysis for Surat City, Gujarat, India: Deterministic and Probabilistic Approach

Surat, the financial capital of Gujarat, India, is a mega city with a population exceeding five millions. The city falls under Zone III of the Seismic Zoning Map of India. After the devastating 2001 Bhuj earthquake of Mw 7.7, much attention is paid towards the seismic microzonation activity in the state of Gujarat. In this work, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard for Surat City (21.170?N, 72.830?E) based on the probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis. After collecting a catalogue of historical earthquakes in a 350?km radius around the city and after analyzing a database statistically, deterministic analysis has been carried out considering known tectonic sources; a further recurrence relationship for the control region is found out. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were then carried out for the Surat region considering five seismotectonic sources selected from a deterministic approach. The final results of the present investigations are presented in the form of peak ground acceleration and response spectra at bed rock level considering the local site conditions. Rock level Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration values at 0.01?s and 1.0?s corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated. Further Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping, and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, were also developed for the city considering all site classes. These results can be directly used by engineers as basic inputs in earthquake-resistant design of structures in and around the city.     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.