Evaluation of the seismic hazard for 20 cities in Romania using Monte Carlo based simulations

This work focuses on the evaluation of the seismic hazard for Romania using earthquake catalogues generated by a Monte Carlo approach. The seismicity of Romania can be attributed to the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source and to 13 other crustal seismic sources. The recurrence times of large magnitude seismic events (both crustal and subcrustal), as well as the moment release rates are computed using simulated earthquake catalogues. The results show that the largest contribution to the overall moment release for the crustal seismic sources is from the seismic regions in Bulgaria, while the seismic regions in Romania contribute less than 5% of the overall moment release. In addition, the computations show that the moment release rate for the Vrancea subcrustal seismic source is about ten times larger than that of all the crustal seismic sources. Finally, the Monte Carlo approach is used to evaluate the seismic hazard for 20 cities in Romania with populations larger than 100,000 inhabitants. The results show some differences between the seismic hazard values obtained through Monte-Carlo simulation and those in the Romanian seismic design code P100-1/2013, notably for cities situated in the western part of Romania that are influenced by local crustal seismic sources.     

1604年泉州海外大地震及其海啸影响分析

由于史料记载的模糊和局限性, 1604年泉州海外8级大地震是否引发地震海啸灾难, 一直是有争议的。 该文从这次地震历史资料的辨别、 考证和分析研究认为, 泉州海外大地震并未引发地震海啸产生的显著灾害。 在相关的史料与台湾海峡发震构造的分析基础上, 通过潜在海啸源的鉴别以及海啸源参数的确定, 对泉州滨海断裂和台湾海峡浅滩南缘海啸源进行数值模拟计算。 在计算过程中, 利用了1994年台湾海峡浅滩南缘地震的海啸波验潮站资料, 对计算模型和方法进行了检验。 1604年泉州海外大地震的潜在海啸源(滨海断裂)的数值计算结果表明, 海啸波对泉州湾沿岸的增减水效应不足以造成灾难性的影响, 因此也为1604年泉州海外大地震未引发灾难性的海啸提供了新的证据。     

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.     

Quaternary faults and seismicity in the Umbro-Marchean Apennines (Central Italy): evidence from the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake

Analyses of structural and geomorphological data combined with remote sensing interpretation confirm previous knowledge on the existence of an extensional Quaternary tectonic regime in the Colfiorito area (Umbro-Marchean Central Apennines). This is characterized by a maximum principal axis of finite strain oriented approx. NE–SW, which is the result of a progressive deformation process due to pure and radial extension. Surface geological data, the crustal tectonic setting (reconstructed using a CROP 03 seismic reflection profile), and seismological data relative to the autumn 1997 Colfiorito earthquake sequence constrain the following seismotectonic model. We interpret the seismogenic SW-dipping low-angle normal fault pictured by seismic data as an inverted thrust ramp located in the basement at depth between 5 and 10 km. The surface projection of this seismogenic structure defines a crustal box within which high-angle normal faults are responsible for the deformation of the uppermost crust. The regional patterns of pre-existing basement thrusts therefore control the seismotectonic zoning of the area that cannot be directly related to the high-angle normal fault systems which cut through different crustal boxes; the latter system records, in fact, re-shear along pre-existing normal faults. Moreover, Quaternary slip-rates relative to high-angle normal faults in the Central Apennines are closely related to seismic hazard within each crustal box.     

设定地震及其烈度影响判别

设定地震常用于震害预测、地震小区划和重大工程选址,烈度衰减模型反映了地震引起的地面震动及其影响的强弱程度分布。设定地震包括确定性和非确定性设定两种方法,确定性方法基于构造或历史地震,非确定性方法是基于概率危险性方法,用于估计区域或城市未来可能遭遇的地震危险。缺失等震线或震害记载不详的历史地震和概率设定地震都不能确切地反映地震破坏影响,借助于烈度衰减关系模型和GIS,可直观地判别其影响分布情况,便于设定地震的取舍。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the two layer fault system of Antalya (SW Turkey) area

Southwest Turkey, along Mediterranean coast, is prone to large earthquakes resulting from subduction of the African plate under the Eurasian plate and shallow crustal faults. Maximum observed magnitude of subduction earthquakes is Mw = 6.5 whereas that of crustal earthquakes is Mw = 6.6. Crustal earthquakes are sourced from faults which are related with Isparta Angle and Cyprus Arc tectonic structures. The primary goal of this study is to assess seismic hazard for Antalya area (SW Turkey) using a probabilistic approach. A new earthquake catalog for Antalya area, with unified moment magnitude scale, was prepared in the scope of the study. Seismicity of the area has been evaluated by the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relationship. For hazard computation, CRISIS2007 software was used following the standard Cornell-McGuire methodology. Attenuation model developed by Youngs et al. Seismol Res Lett 68(1):58–73, (1997) was used for deep subduction earthquakes and Chiou and Youngs Earthq Spectra 24(1):173–215, (2008) model was used for shallow crustal earthquakes. A seismic hazard map was developed for peak ground acceleration and for rock ground with a hazard level of a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Results of the study show that peak ground acceleration values on bedrock change between 0.215 and 0.23 g in the center of Antalya.     

Seismic hazard model for loss estimation and risk management in Taiwan

We developed a seismic hazard model for Taiwan that integrates all available tectonic, seismicity, and seismic hazard information in the region to provide risk managers and engineers with a model they can use to estimate earthquake losses and manage seismic risk in Taiwan. The seismic hazard model is composed of two major components: a seismotectonic model and a ground-shaking model. The seismotectonic model incorporates earthquakes that are expected to occur on the Ryukyu and Manila subduction zones, on the intermediate-depth Wadati-Benioff seismicity zones, on the active crustal faults, and within seismotectonic provinces. The active crustal faults include the Chelungpu fault zone, the source of the damaging M_W 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, and the Huangchi-Hsiaoyukeng fault zone that forms the western boundary of the Taipei Basin. The ground-shaking model uses both US, worldwide, and Taiwanese attenuation relations to provide robust estimates of peak ground acceleration and response spectral acceleration on a reference site condition for shallow crustal and subduction zone earthquakes. The ground shaking for other site conditions is obtained by applying a nonlinear soil-amplification factor defined in terms of the average shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil profile, consistent with the methodology used in the current US and proposed Taiwan building codes.     

Seismic characteristics near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province and its implication

Introduction A great earthquake occurred on Sept. 25 of 1303 (Seventh of Dade, Yuan Dynasty) around Zhaocheng and Hongtong in Shanxi Province. The great earthquake is a very famous one, which is affirmed as the first earthquake with magnitude 8 in Chinese history. The catastrophes took place; meanwhile, huge archives of the disaster were recorded. According to these disaster recordings, the first isoseismal map in China was delineated, which provide us with abundant information of intensi…     

23 October 2011 Van, Eastern Anatolia, earthquake (M W 7.1) and seismotectonics of Lake Van area

The 23 October 2011 Van earthquake took place in the NE part of Lake Van area, surprisingly on a fault (the Van fault) that is not present in the current active fault map of Turkey. However, occurrence of such a large magnitude earthquake in the area is not surprising regarding the historical seismicity of the region. The comparison of the damage patterns suggests that the earthquake is much likely a recurrence of the 1715 Van earthquake. The finite fault modelling of the earthquake using teleseismic broadband body waveforms has shown that the earthquake rupture was unilateral toward SW, was mostly reverse faulting, confined to below the depth of 5 km, did not propagate offshore, and was dominated by a failure of a single asperity with a peak slip of about 5.5 m. The total seismic moment calculated for the model is 4.6?×?10¹⁹ Nm (M _W ?≈?7.1). The finite fault model coincides with the field observations indicating blind faulting and the vertical displacements over the free surface estimated from it correlate well with the maximum reported uplift along the coast of Lake Van above the hanging wall. The possible offshore continuations of the Van fault and some other faults lying its south are also discussed by assessing a previous offshore seismic reflection study and the earthquake epicentres and focal mechanisms.     

海域工程场地地震安全性评价的特殊问题

本文探讨了海域工程场地地震安全性评价涉及的几个特殊问题,如考虑中深源地震影响的地震危险性分析、海底软弱土层场地地震反应分析等方面的问题。借鉴春晓气田群开发建设项目地震安全性评价和其它工作的实践经验,分析了对这些问题处理的对策,给出了一些建议。     

On the Consistency of Large Earthquake Moment and Strain Rate Inferred from GPS Data in North China

INTRODUCTIONStudyingthe relation between the accumulation of crustal strain and the release rate of seismicmoment is animportant subject of earth science research.It is also one of the important methods ofestimatingthe future seismic risk(Ward,1994;1998a;…     

Seismic characteristics near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>=8 earthquake,Shanxi Province and its implication

In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution of small and moderate earthquakes, 6 seismic dense zones are delineated. Temporal distribution of M _L≥2 earthquakes since 1970 in each seismic dense zone has been analyzed. Based on temporal distribution characteristics and historical earthquake activity, three types of seismicities are proposed. The relationship between seismic types and crustal medium is analyzed. The mechanism of three types is discussed. Finity of strong earthquake recurrence is proposed. Seismic hazard in mid-long term and diversity of earthquake disaster in Shanxi seismic belt are discussed.     

基于潜在破裂面源模型的南北地震带南段地震区划研究

南北地震带南段大震活动频繁。已有的研究结果表明,大震近场范围场点的地震危险性与地震破裂面产状及其尺度密切相关。因此,在南北地震带南段需要考虑潜在震源三维特征进行地震危险性分析和地震区划研究。本文在充分搜集大震发震构造资料的基础上,在南北地震带南段构建了考虑震源尺度和产状的潜在震源模型,改进了地震危险性概率分析方法,进而对该地区进行地震区划研究。结果表明,考虑潜在震源三维特征的地震危险性分析结果可以有效地反映南北地震带南段发震构造的产状和尺寸特征,提高地震区划结果的合理性。     

华北地区大地震矩释放率和GPS应变率的一致性研究

GPS测量技术可以在较大地区范围内获得高精度地壳形变速率。稳定的应变速率提供了精确确定地震活动率的机会。本文运用Kostrov(1974)的公式将经平滑的华北地区应变速率转化为矩释放率，并与运用1303年洪洞地震以来的地震目录计算的矩释放率进行比较，发现两者之比南北向为60．6％，东西向为68．9％，北东剪切分量为104．1％。近似为1的比率表明了GPS测量结果的可靠性。这个结果对结合历史地震及大地形变测量估计矩释放进行地震危险性评估具有一定参考意义。     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and sensitivity analysis: A case of joint consideration of intermediate-depth (Vrancea) and shallow (crustal) seismicity

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.     

Preliminary analysis of earthquake probability based on the synthetic seismic catalog

The analysis of seismic hazards relies on the statistical analysis of historical seismic data and the instrumental seismic catalog to obtain the regional earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake probability. The accuracy of analysis thus depends strongly on the completeness of the seismic data used. However, available seismic catalogs are too short or incomplete for the reliable analysis of the statistical characteristics of earthquakes. If a long-term synthetic seismic catalog can be generated using a physics-based numerical simulation, and the simulation results match the crustal deformation, seismicity, and other observations,then such a synthetic catalog helps us to further understand the characteristics of seismic activity and analyze the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, taking the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study, we establish a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes on the model fault system and obtain a seismic catalog on a time scale of tens of thousands of years. On the basis that the model satisfies the regional geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we analyze seismicity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau using the simulated synthetic earthquake catalog. The characteristics of earthquake recurrence at different locations and different magnitudes, and the long-term average probability of earthquake occurrence within the fault system on the northeastern Tibetan plateau are studied. The results are a reference for regional seismic hazard assessment and provide a basis for the physics-based numerical prediction of earthquakes.     

南北地震带地壳结构多参数成像及强震触发机制研究

通过反演由大量的纵、横波地震数据组成的综合数据集,获得了南北地震带地壳的多参数三维精细结构,探讨和分析了南北地震带的高地震活动性和强震频发的原因.成像结果表明,尽管1976年松潘一平武地震(M7.2)与2008年汶川地震(M8.0)以及2013年芦山地震(M7.0)均发生在高速、低泊松比异常区域,并且在其震源的下方均有一低速、高泊松比异常区域.我们认为,上述三个地震的触发与流体侵入导致的地壳形变之间有密切的联系.1955年炉霍地震(M7.4)和1973年康定地震(M7.1)均发生在鲜水河断裂带上,其震源中心区域表现为低速、高泊松比异常,可以解释为下地壳中的流体沿断层面上涌.在震源区的周边区域兼有高速、高泊松比异常,低速、高泊松比异常以及高速、低泊松比异常,可能分别与含流体的岩石、沿断裂带发育的变质岩以及坚硬的克拉通块体对应.流体的侵入不仅能够改变断层面上的应力情况,还能降低岩石骨架的岩石力学强度,进而触发地震.1970年云南通海大地震(M7.1)发生在哀牢山一红河断裂带附近的曲江断裂上,其震源处于高速度、低泊松比异常与低速度、高泊松比异常之间的边界区域,被认为是流体挤压后的应变能积累,最终导致脆性破裂,以至于发生地震.根据本次研究获得的多参数结构图像,结合前人的研究成果,我们认为南北地震带地壳强烈形变与流体侵入是造成该区域地震活动性较高及强震频发的两个主要因素.     

A new seismic hazard analysis using FOSM algorithms

From recent lessons, it is evident that earthquake prediction is immature and impractical as of now. Under the circumstances, seismic hazard analysis is considered a more practical approach for earthquake hazard mitigation, by estimating the annual rate of earthquake ground motions (or seismic hazard) based on seismicity and other geological evidences. Like other earthquake studies for the high-seismicity region around Taiwan, this study aims to conduct a new seismic hazard assessment for the region using the well-established FOSM (first-order second-moment) algorithm, on the record of 55,000 earthquakes observed in the past 110 years. The new seismic hazard analysis from a different perspective shows that the annual rate for earthquake-induced PGA to exceed the current design value (i.e., 0.23g) in two major cities in Taiwan should be relatively low, with it no greater than 0.0006 per year. Besides, the FOSM estimates were found very close to those with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), mainly because the skewness of the three random variables (i.e., earthquake magnitude, location, and model error) considered in the probabilistic analysis is not very large.     

Centrifuge modeling of offshore wind foundations under earthquake loading

The construction of large offshore wind turbines in seismic active regions has great demand on the design of foundations. The occurrence of soil liquefaction under seismic motion will affect the stability of the foundations and consequently the operation of the turbines. In this study, a group of earthquake centrifuge tests was performed on wind turbine models with gravity and monopile foundations, respectively, to exam their seismic response. It was found that the seismic behavior of models was quite different in the dry or saturated conditions. Each type of foundation exhibited distinct response to the earthquake loading, especially in the offshore environment. In the supplementary tests, several remediation methods were evaluated in order to mitigate the relatively large lateral displacement of pile foundation (by fixed-end pile and multi-pile foundation) and excessive settlement of gravity foundation (by densification, stone column, and cementation techniques).     

大容量气枪震源及其波形特征

大容量低频组合气枪震源已成功应用于南海北部海陆联测实验及陆上水库实验,其信号传播最远距离可达255 km. 为了探讨气枪信号的波形特征, 从广东省地震台网数据中选择了台基相同、震级与震中距相近的珠海台的地震记录, 将气枪震源、天然地震和爆破三种震源的波形特征进行了对比分析,结果表明, 气枪信号特征明显, 信号主频4～8 Hz, 振幅±0.15 μm·s^-1, 波形一般具有3～5个峰值, 并随时间有规律变化,易于准确识别. 实验探测结果说明, 这种能量强、重复性好、探测精度高、绿色环保的枪阵组合震源可广泛应用于海洋与陆地深部结构研究.