玛多7.4级地震前临震微波动现象研究

强震临震微波动是强震临震阶段优势频率集中在11～16 Hz、频谱形态较为整齐的临震异常脉动记录。利用"兰州临震微波动实时监控与跟踪系统"的数据资料,对2021年5月22日玛多7.4级地震震中200 km半径的范围内台站的临震微波动事件进行分析。认为震前距离震中67 km的巴颜喀拉台EW通道存在显著异常,达到杨立明提出的异常跟踪指标;10个测震台站中的8个在本次地震前记录到了临震微波动事件,震中南侧台站记录到的事件多于北侧。     

强震临震微波动现象初步研究(一)

利用宽频带数字地震记录资料,通过对汶川地震、玉树地震、青川地震等震例的反复对比研究,初步识别出可能存在的临震微波动。其特征表现为:(1)频谱范围较宽,优势频率集中在11~16Hz,频谱形态较为整齐;(2)在震前12~14天出现,有可能被震中距50km范围内的台站记录到;(3)可能具有方向性,其活动度变化显著的方位与发震断层、余震分布及震源位置较为一致。临震微波动可能与临震阶段震源区的预活动、微震动、微破裂或临震阶段相关活动构造微活动、微破裂、裂隙扩展等事件有关。     

强震临震微波动现象跟踪试验研究

强震临震微波动是强震临震阶段优势频率集中在11~16 Hz、频谱形态较为整齐的临震异常脉动记录,在汶川、玉树、青川等不同强震前有重现,可用于强震临震判定。为了对强震临震微波动现象进行跟踪检验,利用"兰州地脉动实时监控技术系统"分析2015—2016年间发生在青藏块体和新疆的4次5.5级以上地震震前3个月地脉动连续记录,通过临震微波动事件活动度异常幅度变化和持续时间验证临震微波动现象的重现性,跟踪检验结果符合杨立明等基于临震微波动提炼的震情跟踪指标。     

伽师—阿图什6.7级地震阿图什地倾斜异常特征

１９９６ 年３ 月１９ 日新疆伽师—阿图什地区发生了６．７ 级强烈地震。震前阿图什地震台倾斜仪记录的中短期和短临前兆异常特征为：中短期趋势性异常的方向向背离震中的方向倾斜,持续了１３个月;震前两个月趋势异常出现短期恢复,之后加速异常;临震前５ 天异常快速恢复,并伴有观测值的临震突跳现象,地震发生在异常的恢复之中     

强震临震微波动现象初步研究(二)

为了验证和检验强震临震微波动现象及其主要特征,利用甘、青、川、滇、藏等区域台网200余个宽频带数字地震台站的波形资料,建立了实时监控技术系统。通过对2012~2014年间青藏块体发生的24次5级以上地震及部分无震区域台站观测的全程实时跟踪、动态监控,检验和验证了临震微波动现象的重现性和客观性,验证了临震微波动现象的频谱、时间、空间、方向性等特征,进一步得出了临震微波动现象可能与地震强度有关,且震级越大,震前出现持续临震微波动的可能性越大的结论。     

重庆地震台地倾斜观测资料分析

分析了重庆地震台地倾斜观测资料,结合重庆辖区内10多年来的地震活动,提取地倾斜观测异常,为地震预测提供前兆参考。资料分析认为:对于发生在震中距为80~120km的5.0级以下地震,地倾斜观测地震异常少;5.0级以上的地震,地倾斜观测有异常记录,地震中期异常往往表现为震前几个月倾斜量的较大幅度变化,短期异常多数表现为震前差分值的低值变化(在均值附近变化,幅值较小,持续时间20d左右),部分表现为差分值震前突跳,临震异常主要是震前几天短周期波动变化。     

地电场日变幅各向异性度异常提取方法初步研究

首先建立地电场日变幅各向异性度(S值)方法:对不同测向的地电场日变幅换算成各向异性系数,进而提取异常信号的方法。通过对不同台站的映震结果的对比分析表明:(1)该方法能够较好地识别地震前兆信息异常,对于5级左右地震,在震前4个月之内,震中距200 km范围内各台能够记录到地震的短期异常,异常出现的早晚与各台震中距的远近有关;对于4级地震,震中距越近异常越明显;(2)在正常情况下,S值曲线一般在均值的2倍均方差以内波动;当出现异常时,异常判据为S值2日以上超过各台均值的2倍均方差、曲线形态发生畸变;(3)各台映震结果存在较大的差异性,这可能与地下介质电性结构、发震构造与各台构造关联性存在一定关系。     

汶川8.0级地震以及其它大震前的地电阻率异常特征

对2008年汶川8.0级地震前周边远近台站的电阻率异常特征进行了分析.离震中400 km内的郫县、甘孜、冕宁、武都四个台站基本都存在1年以上的中期异常;距震中较远的兰州台和天水台则出现了短临异常变化.总结了我国9次7级以上大震前地电阻率台观测资料,认为电阻率异常形态以负异常为主,在极值附近或转折恢复过程中发生地震.震中附近台站多数有异常,大部分为一年以上中期的变化,年变形态消失;震前能观测到短临变化;一般在极值点附近发震.较远台站部分存在异常;短期和临震异常变化相对增多;在回升过程中或异常恢复后发震.     

地电阻率瞬时突变序列变化与临震预报

本文采用断裂力学观点，分析研究了一些临震预报实验结果与地电实际观测资料。发现在强震与部分中强震前，震中附近的台站，除能预测到有关地震的地电阻率日突变序列的短期异常变化外，在瞬时突变序上还能看到临震前明显的突变现象，还是震前三个月里的最大瞬时突变，从它的出现至发震所需的时间，将随震中距的减少而缩短，且与震级有关，对于强震多集中出现在震前一个月内，中强震为十天内，并有由外围向震中收缩的趋势，其平均收缩     

菏泽5.9级地震前地电阻率的临震突变现象

1967年我国开始建立第一个地电阻率观测站以来,至今已有16年的历史。历经几次7级以上大地震,特别是唐山7.8级地震的实践,发现震前距震中一定范围内的台站,其地电阻率观测值都有不同程度的趋势异常变化。更有意义的是唐山震前10天之内还观测到大幅度的突变异常,且这种异常的台站集中分布在北东向沧东断裂带附近。松潘地震前武都地电台也记录到突变现象。另外,在某些中强地震前曾记录到短期趋势变化,然而是否存在临震突变异常还是悬案,而临震信息的研究是当前地震预报的一个极为重要的方面。     

Research on the multifractal characteristics of the temporal—spatial distribution of earthquakes over New Zealand area

Using the Hill estimator,general multifractal characteristics of events in the New Zealand area have been dis-cussed.Results show that the spatial distribution of shallow events has apparent clustering characteristics,inde-pendent of the threshold magnitude;but for deep events these characteristics are not clear.While the time interval distribution has obvious clustering characteristics both for deep and shallow events,although with a different scal-ing range,the Hill estimates tend to indicate that the time interval distribution has a unifractal rather than a multi-fractal nature.All above reveal that the seismicity nature for shallow and deepevents is apparently different.     

Spatio-temporal variation of transition probability of bursting events over the ripples at the bed of open channel

In this study, the turbulent flow structure over the ripples at the bed of open channel was investigated experimentally. An analysis of bursting process was used to recognize the susceptible regions for sediment entrainment and deposition over the ripples. Two artificial ripples were built according to the ripples, formed by nature. Three different configurations of ripples were used by changing the wavelength. According to analysis of bursting event it was found that at the stoss side of ripples, quadrants (II) and (IV) were dominant to the quadrants (I) and (III) and at the lee side of the ripple it was vice versa. Also the transition probabilities of the bursting events were determined. The results showed that stable organizations of each class of the events had highest transition probabilities whereas cross organizations had lowest transition probabilities. Additionally, an effort was made to find the average inclination angle of the bursting events in quadrants (II) and (IV). The results showed that the mean angle of events in quadrants (II) and (IV) increases at the downstream of stoss side to the crest in each experimental test. Also, at the lee side where the sediment particles were deposited, the inclination angles had the highest values.     

汶川震前几种低频事件波形分析

列举分析了国外文献所记载的几类低频事件.选择汶川MS8.0地震主断层附近四川省部分台网宽频带数据,采用相应频段,进行带通滤波处理,检测到4种类似的低频事件波形．分别为低频震颤与滑移事件（ETS事件）,深低频地震事件(LFE事件),深低频震动事件（DLF事件）,以及超低频震动事件（VLF事件）．定位分析实例证实,汶川震前的ETS和DLF等低频事件发生在主断层附近,表明大震发生之前龙门山断裂带附近有低频事件发生,主要为ETS和VLF两类事件及少量DLF事件．因有远震记录与LFE事件时间相近,无法确认此类事件是否存在．低频事件作为天然地震目录的补充,可为大震前兆和触发机理研究提供新的探索方向．      

Results of locating the IASPEI GT(0-5) reference events using the standard ISC procedures

The International Seismological Centre (ISC) is charged with production of the definitive global bulletin of seismic events, based on the most comprehensive set of parametric data collected from all over the world. Almost every event in the bulletin retains the original hypocentral solutions reported to the ISC by contributing agencies. In addition, where possible, the ISC computes its own solution, which is intended to be the most accurate where the data from several networks are used. It is because of the requirement for consistency of the bulletin over the years that the procedures used at the centre to compute hypocentres have remained rather conservative despite considerable advances made in the field of earthquake location.The ISC has developed and put into operation a new data management system. As a result, it is now possible to review and subsequently introduce more up-to-date methods of locating seismic events into the operations. The ISC Governing Council called for a workshop dedicated to location procedures, which was held during the 2005 IASPEI General Assembly in Santiago, Chile.To compare the accuracy of different location algorithms, a list of 156 reference events (IWREF) was selected prior to the workshop. The list includes geographically well distributed earthquakes and explosions with positions known with an accuracy of up to 5 km. It covers the period of 1954-2001 and includes all station readings and hypocentral solutions of different agencies available for these events in the ISC bulletin. Although the original ISC solutions are included, these may be different from the solution obtainable now due to changes in the ISC procedures over the years. This paper presents the results of relocation of these events using standard ISC location procedures as of 2005. These new ISC locations and analysis of their shifts with respect to reference locations present a benchmark for further improvement.     

Multivariate discrimination technique based on the Bayesian theory

A multivariate discrimination technique was established based on the Bayesian theory. Using this technique, P/S ratios of different types (e.g., Pn/Sn, Pn/Lg, Pg/Sn or Pg/Lg) measured within different frequency bands and from different stations were combined together to discriminate seismic events in Central Asia. Major advantages of the Bayesian approach are that the probability to be an explosion for any unknown event can be directly calculated given the measurements of a group of discriminants, and at the same time correlations among these discriminants can be fully taken into account. It was proved theoretically that the Bayesian technique would be optimal and its discriminating performance would be better than that of any individual discriminant as well as better than that yielded by the linear combination approach ignoring correlations among discriminants. This conclusion was also validated in this paper by applying the Bayesian approach to the above-mentioned observed data.     

基于黏弹滑移界面理论揭示套管中模式波的传播特征

目前固井质量评价主要是利用套管中模式波的幅度或衰减变化判断套管与水泥间的胶结状况.在超声测量频段（70~500 kHz）,现有声波测井仪器工作时在套管中激发的模式波类似薄板中的对称兰姆波（拉伸波）或反对称兰姆波（弯曲型兰姆波）.本文将黏弹滑移界面理论应用到套管和水泥的耦合界面,探讨了套管中的准兰姆波（包括拉伸波和弯曲型兰姆波）与套管后物质的耦合方式,拉伸波与套后物质主要以剪切刚度耦合,即便是0.01 mm的微环也会使得拉伸波的衰减明显降低,接近套后是流体时的响应特征;而弯曲型兰姆波与套管后物质主要以法向刚度耦合,这使得在套后胶结轻质水泥时弯曲型兰姆波对微环不敏感,在套后耦合常规水泥时微环的存在又会使得弯曲型兰姆波的衰减明显增强,衰减的增加说明其与套后物质的声耦合更紧密,也表明微环与常规水泥的等效声阻抗适当降低,更有利于弯曲型兰姆波传播时与套后介质实现法向刚度的匹配.拉伸波和弯曲型兰姆波对同一胶结状况的不同响应特征也为固井质量综合评价时区分不同的水泥胶结状况提供了可能.     

砂岩的热破裂过程

高温环境下,岩石表现为明显的宏观破裂特征. 本实验在细观尺度下观测了不同温度条件下,阜新细砂岩的矿物组分和微结构及其发展变化,以及内部微裂纹的发生和发展. 从实验中观察到,自150℃开始,阜新细砂岩微裂纹数量有剧烈的增加,并达到峰值;当温度超过210℃以后,可见裂纹的数量呈下降趋势并逐渐稳定;当温度达到810℃,细砂岩裂纹数量出现第二个增长峰值. 结果表明随着温度变化,细砂岩存在热破裂阀值.     

Observation and study on the whole process of cloud-to-ground lightning using narrowband radio interferometer

A narrowband radio interferometer has been developed and used to locate the entire sources of VHF radiations from a negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharge which contains 19 strokes. This system uses five antennas to form an array consisting of short- and long-baselines along two or- thogonal directions. The system error which comes from frequency conversion is reduced by phase detection through direct high frequency amplifying. An interactive graphic analysis procedure is used to remove the fringe ambiguities which exist inherently in interferometry and to determine the direction of lightning radiation sources in two dimensions (azimuth and elevation) as a function of time at a time resolution of microsecond orders. With the developed system, the whole progression process in time and space of a lightning flash can be reconstructed. In this paper, combining the synchronous data of electric filed change and VHF radiation, the whole processes of an example negative CG flash have been studied in detail. It is found that the preliminary breakdown event of the CG flash started from negative charge region and exhibited firstly a downward pregression and then an upward propagation. There were very intense and continuous radiations during stepped leaders which became much stronger when the first return stroke began. In contrast, there were less and only discrete radiations during dart leaders. Stepped leader and dart leader may transform to each other depending on the state of the ionization of the path. The progression speed of initial stepped leaders was about 105 ms?1, while that was about 4.1×106 and 6.0×106 ms?1 for dart leaders and dart-stepped leaders, respectively. M events produced hook-shaped field changes accompanied by active burst of radiations at their begin- nings. Followed these active radiation processes, M events appeared to contact finally into conducting main discharge channels. The mean progression speed of M events was about 7×107 ms?1, greater than that of the dart leaders and dart-step leaders. K events and attempted leaders were essentially the same as dart leaders except that they could not reach the ground and initiate return strokes.