2021年甘肃阿克塞5.5级地震前区域地壳变形异常特征分析

为研究2021年甘肃阿克塞5.5级地震前震中周边的地壳变形运动特征,根据CMONOC提供的GPS观测资料,通过GPS速度场、面应变率场和站间基线时间序列分析,探讨了震前的地壳变形特征。研究结果表明,震中处于发震断层西南侧远场速度大、近场速度小且断裂两侧速度场方向明显不同的位置,同时位于与发震构造类型一致的面应变率场的压缩高值区,即挤压应变累积区。跨发震断裂的基线长度在震前3年多时间出现的转折变化,表明震前发震断裂两侧左旋走滑速率明显减缓;而断裂两侧的挤压速率有所加快则反映出本次地震前震中区域存在一定程度的应变能积累。研究结果有助于认识该地震的孕震过程,并可为相似构造类型区域的强震预测提供参考依据。     

2016年熊本M_W 7.1地震前GPS形变特征分析

利用日本九州岛地区连续GPS观测数据,分析了2016年熊本M_W7.1地震前的区域地壳变形演化特征。GPS速度场和应变率场显示,熊本地震前右旋剪切应变积累区主要集中在断层上盘的九州中部块体(CKY)内,断层下盘的南海弧前块体(NFY)和九州南部块体(SKY)表现为显著的绕块体中心的逆时针刚性旋转运动;熊本地震发生在右旋剪切应变率高值区的边缘,且发震断层附近区域GPS应变时序结果显示自2014年后右旋剪切应变呈逐渐增强趋势;平行断层方向的GPS速度剖面结果显示发震断层上盘右旋剪切应变积累特征显著,表现为越靠近断层处的滑动速率越小,且断层西北侧站点速率随离开断层距离的增加呈非线性趋势变化。另外,GPS剖面结果显示,日奈久断层近场存在1~2 mm/a的相对滑动,可能存在浅层蠕滑运动。     

云南地区GNSS应变场时空演化与地震事件关联分析

采用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对云南境内及邻区近400个GNSS测点1999～2018年的观测数据进行解算,在各个测点时间序列和速度场的基础上,采用克里金插值方法分时段估计该区域在1999～2004年、2004～2007年、2009～2013年、2013～2015年、2015～2018年共计5个时间区域应变率场;根据区域地壳面应变率和最大剪应变率的空间变化以及相应时段之后3年内的MS≥5. 0地震事件分布特征,分析发现:绝大部分震例发生在面应变高梯度带的张压转换区和最大剪应变高值区,可见研究区各个观测时段GNSS应变率场对后期1～3年内的中强震发生区域有一定的指示意义;以2014年盈江6. 1级、鲁甸6. 5级和景谷6. 6级地震为样本,建立监视块体获取应变时间序列,分析发现:地震前三个月左右均出现震中附近短期应变趋势改变、快速增强、转折的现象,这些形变异常变化或许反映了发震区应力-应变积累在接近临界破裂状态时的非线性调整,为地震短临预测尤其是时间要素的判断提供参考。     

2021年云南漾濞MS6.4地震序列发震构造及其与2013年洱源、2017年漾濞地震的异同

2021年5月21日云南漾濞发生M_S6.4地震.为深入了解该地震的发震断层及发震构造特征,探讨其与2013年洱源与2017年漾濞地震发震构造及背景的异同,本文基于中国地震台网中心的观测报告,使用双差方法对漾濞地震序列进行重定位,并从全球矩心矩张量(GCMT)和美国地质调查局(USGS)搜集了9个震源机制解计算了震源区构造应力场,初步得到如下结论:(1)2021年漾濞地震序列呈NW-SE向展布且SE端余震数量多于NW端,余震区地壳应力不均匀释放,致使5.0级及以上地震周边余震稀少;4个5.0级及以上地震初始破裂深度大于矩心深度,推测发震断层是从断裂底部向浅部破裂.(2)发震断裂是维西—乔后—巍山断裂西南侧的未知断裂F2、F3,其走向NW-SE、倾向SW、倾角近垂直,具有右旋走滑特征.其中F2贯穿整个地震序列,长约30 km,F3主要发育在中南段,长约11 km,两条发震断层相交于地震丛集中间位置.(3)震源区构造应力场是走滑的应力机制,呈SSE向(174.57°)低倾伏角(18.79°)挤压,及SWW向(-93.65°)近水平(5.21°)拉张状态.震源区的发震构造受川滇块体与滇南块体形成的右旋走滑边界控制.(4)这3个地震均发生在川滇块体右旋走滑西南边界形成的走滑应力机制作用背景下.2013年洱源地震可能更多的受控于局部构造的垂向差异运动;2017年漾濞地震仅受到川滇块体西南边界的右旋走滑作用;2021年漾濞地震则主要受控于川滇块体西南边界的右旋走滑运动,还存在少量局部构造垂向差异运动作用.     

GPS观测结果反映的尼泊尔M_w7.8地震孕震特征

针对2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.8地震的孕震特征,本文首先对覆盖尼泊尔及周边地区的5套GPS水平速度场结果进行了融合,得到了近似统一参考框架下的速度场结果;在此基础上通过对此次地震震源区及周边地区的速度场、应变率场、基线时间序列分析,识别了震前变形特征.GPS应变率场结果显示,喜马拉雅主边界断裂存在大范围挤压应变积累,震源区处于近南北向应变积累高值过渡区.跨喜马拉雅构造带的GPS基线时间序列结果表现为持续缩短现象,表明印度板块与欧亚板块之间的持续挤压变形特征,2012年以来的缩短增强现象反映了印度板块对青藏块体的推挤增强作用明显.距离震中较近的西藏南部GPS同震位移结果以南向运动为主且指向震中,反映了青藏高原存在逆冲应变释放现象.综合此次尼泊尔地震前变形和同震应变释放特征,认为此次地震的孕震区域和同震应变释放区域均较大,将会对青藏高原的地壳变形与强震孕育产生深远影响.     

2021年5月漾濞MS6.4地震序列发震机理的应力分析

为了从应力的角度解释2021年5月漾濞M_S6.4地震序列的发震机理,本文开展了包括刻画断层结构,反演震源区应力场,研究应力场对断层的加载作用以及地震序列中较大地震对断层活动的库仑应力影响等4个方面的研究,具体的认识为,(1)相比于前人工作中利用区域台阵定位结果刻画的断层结构,结合布设在漾濞震源区的实时地震监测台阵捕捉的7905个余震位置和沿断层均匀分布的16个M3.5以上地震的震源机制,我们刻画了漾濞地震序列发震断层的精细结构：漾濞地震序列最主要的特征为NW向和NE向两组断层共同破裂,NW向断层为右旋走滑破裂,NE向断层为左旋走滑破裂;(2)利用震源区1°×1°范围内的90个历史震源机制反演了震源区的背景应力场,得到震源区为近南北向水平挤压,东西向水平拉张的走滑型应力状态,应力方位的不确定度很小,而主应力相对大小(R)的不确定度很大,为0.2～0.8;(3)分析了漾濞地震序列两组发震断层的稳定性,发现两组发震断层均为应力场作用下最易失稳的断层.此外,发生在两组断层上地震的震源机制分别与两个最易失稳断层的震源机制相似,说明了背景应力对断层行为的控制作用;(4)两组断...     

唐山、汶川地震地壳形变特征综合研究

通过对比分析1976年唐山7.8级和2008年汶川8.0级地震前后的区域水平和垂直形变场及跨断层形变的时空特征,归纳总结了与大地震孕育物理过程相关联的地壳形变共性特征.主要认识如下:(1)在中国大陆复杂的构造孕震环境下区域地壳形变场充分表现出非稳定态的起伏消长和复杂变化,在强震前孕震区地壳形变经历先增强后弱化的动态特征,剧烈形变局部化可能出现在震源区边缘附近;(2)震源区在震前数年主要表现为弱变形状态,可能是孕震晚期发震断层强闭锁、断层近场应力应变积累趋于极限的表现;(3)两次大地震前发震断层区域形变均显著偏离长期构造应变积累的变形方式,反映在大陆内部小尺度多块体的复杂构造孕震环境下局部应力应变场更容易出现扰动,且小块体边界临近发震的断层响应更为显著;(4)震源区边缘或外围可能出现显著的断层形变异常,而震源区内部由于发震断层处于强闭锁状态而不易观测到断层形变异常.     

2021年5月21日漾濞MS6.4地震震源区三维P和S波速度结构与地震重定位研究

2021年5月21日漾濞MS6.4地震震源区位于川滇块体西边界的维西—乔后—巍山断裂西侧,该地区近些年来发生了多次中强地震,地震活动较为活跃.对漾濞地震序列重定位和漾濞震源区及邻区的地壳精细结构研究,有助于深入理解漾濞地震的孕震环境、发震机理和破裂过程.本文基于2008年 1月1日到2021 年6 月3日区域固定台站接收到的 36938条Pg和 32111 条 Sg波到时数据,采用新发展的三重差地震层析成像算法(tomoTD)开展了漾濞MS 6.4地震震源区三维速度结构成像与地震重定位研究.结果显示:(1)余震活动主要集中在维西—乔后—巍山断裂的西侧,整体呈现沿北北西向的条带状分布,结合已有走滑型震源机制解特征,揭示了北西向隐伏断裂是发震断层,其北西段表现为倾角较陡、结构相对简单的走滑断裂,南东段由两条分支断裂组成.(2)主震的发生及地震序列分布与地壳速度结构不均匀性有着密切的关系.主震及4级以上的地震发生在高速边界上或高低速过渡区域,余震主要发生在低速、高VP/VS 区,主震上方与下方均显示高VP/VS 异常,推测在区域构造应力场的作用下,应力在孕震区的刚性介质中积累,中下地壳流体(或者部分熔融地壳物质)侵入发震断层区,弱化了漾濞 6.4 级地震的主震区.另外,余震东南侧的低VP/VS 区可能代表介质刚性强,可能阻碍了余震向南东方向继续扩展.(3)结合2013 洱源 5.5 级地震研究结果,推测维西—乔后—巍山断裂西侧可能存在着较大的北北西向隐伏断层.     

2021年青海玛多MW7.4地震GNSS同震形变场及其断层滑动分布

2021年5月22日青海玛多M_W7.4地震作为发生在巴颜喀拉块体内部的一次强震,再次引起了人们对该地区地震活动性的强烈关注.本文基于震后GNSS流动观测和区域连续GNSS站资料,解算了106个站点的同震形变及其中17个站点的高频形变波形.同震形变场显示玛多地震具有典型的左旋走滑特征,GNSS观测到的最大同震位移达到1.2 m.GNSS与InSAR数据相符度较高,GNSS提供了准确的近场形变信息.基于GNSS同震形变场,本文反演了断层滑动分布,并计算了发震断层上产生的库仑应力变化.结果表明,发震断层的滑动破裂存在多个凹凸体,破裂分段特征明显且出露地表,与野外地表破裂考察和余震分布吻合,主体破裂位于断层面0~10 km的浅部区域,最大滑动量达到4.6 m,地震矩1.63×10²⁰N·m,矩震级为M_W7.4;发震断层上静态库仑应力增加区域与余震分布具有一致性,说明余震主要是由静态库仑应力加载而触发的.     

汶川地震和芦山地震的孕震机理及震前中长期地震危险性研究

运用非连续变形分析法与三维有限元法相结合的方法,以GPS资料作为位移速率和震源机制的约束条件,通过数值模拟研究了青藏高原及其东侧邻区构造地块的运动、变形、相互作用及其与近30年来发生于该区的大地震之间的关系。研究中引入了以应力与摩擦强度的比值定义的断层“失稳危险度”,通过数值模拟计算得到了研究区地壳块体边界断层的失稳危险度分布。结果表明,失稳危险度高的地段与近期该区发生的M_S≥7.0地震所在的位置基本一致,其中龙门山断裂带上包括汶川和芦山大地震的发震断层均为失稳危险度最高值地区。计算得到的应变率强度分布图显示,青藏高原东部边缘整条地带均为应变率强度的陡变带,特别是以龙门山断裂带上的陡变最为明显,其西侧应变率强度为东侧的近4倍,而且,这个带位于宽度相同、走向与龙门山断裂带走向相一致的高应变能密度带中,表明这两次大地震前,作为其发震断层的龙门山断裂带已积累了相当高的应变能,失稳危险度高,处于力学上的不稳定状态。模拟计算得到在上地壳层中,2001年昆仑山口西M_S8.1地震引起汶川、芦山地震发震断层的库仑破裂应力增加约0.016 MPa,相当于龙门山断裂带约两年的应力积累,也就是说,使汶川、芦山地震发震断层的失稳破裂提前了约两年。 此外,关于2008年汶川M_S8.0地震的模拟计算表明,汶川地震的发生也使包括芦山地震发震断层的龙门山断裂带西南段和东昆仑断裂带东南端的库仑破裂应力增大,应变能积累增强,这说明汶川M_S8.0地震的发生对已处于失稳危险度较高状态的2013年芦山地震和2017年九寨沟地震发震断层的提前失稳破裂起到了促进作用。      

Analysis of Anomalous Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the September 16th, 2019 Zhangye MS5.0 Earthquake, Gansu, China

To study the crustal movement in the vicinity of the epicenter before the Zhangye M_S5.0 earthquake in 2019, the characteristics of crustal deformation before the earthquake are discussed through the GPS velocity field analysis based on the CMONOC data observed from GPS. The baseline time series between two continuous GPS stations and the strain time series of an area among several stations are analyzed in the epicenter area. The resulting time series of baseline azimuth around the epicenter reflects that the energy of the fault in the northern margin of Qilian Mountain is accumulated continuously before 2017. Besides, the movement trend of azimuth slows down after 2017, indicating the stress accumulation on both sides of the seismogenic fault zone has reached a certain degree. The first shear strain and EW-direction linear strain in the epicentral area of the Zhangye M_S5.0 earthquake remain steady after 2017, and the surface strain rate decreases gradually after 2016. It is illustrated that there is an obvious deformation loss at the epicentral region three years before the earthquake, indicating that a certain degree of strain energy is accumulated in this area before the earthquake.     

2021年云南漾濞MS6.4地震前后主动源观测走时数据的变化

基于2021年5月21日漾濞M_S6.4地震震中附近50 km范围内15个地震观测台站记录的2020年11月1日—2021年5月30日的气枪震源信号,采用互相关时延检测技术提取这15个台站各自稳定震相(Sg震相)的走时变化时间序列,并对漾濞M_S6.4地震前后各台站的走时变化特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)漾濞M_S6.4地震前10天左右,有4个台站走时开始出现异常,其中,Ey211和Ey213台走时呈"V"型变化结构,Ey210和CHT台走时呈上升趋势。(2)漾濞M_S6.4地震后短期内,大部分台站走时出现了明显的趋势性变化,以维西—乔后—巍山断裂为界,断裂带两侧台站走时变化趋势存在明显差异,断裂以东的EYA、HDQ、YSW09台走时呈上升趋势,变化最为显著的为HDQ台,走时差变化量为0.067 s;而断裂带以西的所有台站在漾濞M_S6.4地震当天(或震后1～2天)开始出现明显趋势性下降,走时下降持续时间在4～9天间,走时差变化量在-0.053～-0.201 s间,其中走时差下降量最大为53 285台,最小为CHT台。     

Deformation Evolution Characteristics Revealed by GPS and Cross-fault Leveling Data before the MS8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

Based on GPS velocity during 1999-2007, GPS baseline time series on large scale during 1999-2008 and cross-fault leveling data during 1985-2008, the paper makes some analysis and discussion to study and summarize the movement, tectonic deformation and strain accumulation evolution characteristics of the Longmenshan fault and the surrounding area before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, as well as the possible physical mechanism late in the seismic cycle of the Wenchuan earthquake. Multiple results indicate that:GPS velocity profiles show that obvious continuous deformation across the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before the earthquake was distributed across a zone at least 500km wide, while there was little deformation in Sichuan Basin and Longmenshan fault zone, which means that the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau provides energy accumulation for locked Longmenshan fault zone continuously. GPS strain rates show that the east-west compression deformation was larger in the northwest of the mid-northern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, and deformation amplitude decreased gradually from far field to near fault zone, and there was little deformation in fault zone. The east-west compression deformation was significant surrounding the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, and strain accumulation rate was larger than that of mid-northern segment. Fault locking indicates nearly whole Longmenshan fault was locked before the earthquake except the source of the earthquake which was weakly locked, and a 20km width patch in southwestern segment between 12km to 22.5km depth was in creeping state. GPS baseline time series in northeast direction on large scale became compressive generally from 2005 in the North-South Seismic Belt, which reflects that relative compression deformation enhances. The cross-fault leveling data show that annual vertical change rate and deformation trend accumulation rate in the Longmenshan fault zone were little, which indicates that vertical activity near the fault was very weak and the fault was tightly locked. According to analyses of GPS and cross-fault leveling data before the Wenchuan earthquake, we consider that the Longmenshan fault is tightly locked from the surface to the deep, and the horizontal and vertical deformation are weak surrounding the fault in relatively small-scale crustal deformation. The process of weak deformation may be slow, and weak deformation area may be larger when large earthquake is coming. Continuous and slow compression deformation across eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before the earthquake provides dynamic support for strain accumulation in the Longmenshan fault zone in relative large-scale crustal deformation.     

2022年门源MS6.9和2016年门源MS6.4地震序列比较分析

2022年1月8日青海省海北州门源县发生M_S6.9地震,震中距离2016年1月21日门源M_S6.4地震震中约33km,两次门源地震均发生在冷龙岭断裂附近,但在震源机制、主发震断层破裂过程及地震序列余震活动等方面显著不同。针对两次门源地震序列的比较分析,对研究冷龙岭断裂及其附近区域强震序列和余震衰减特征等具有重要研究意义。通过对比分析2022年门源M_S6.9地震和2016年门源M_S6.4地震余震的时空演化特征,发现二者在震源过程和断层破裂尺度上存在明显差异,前者发震断层破裂充分,震后能量释放充分,余震丰富且震级偏高;而后者发震断层未破裂至地表,余震震级水平偏低。综合分析两次门源地震序列表现出来的差异性,认为其可能与地震发震断层的破裂过程密切相关,且同时受到区域构造环境的影响。     

InSAR数据约束的2021年5月21日云南漾濞MS6.4地震发震构造研究

运用Sentinel-1A卫星数据和D-InSAR技术,获取2021-05-21云南漾濞M_S6.4地震的同震形变场。结果显示,漾濞地震同震形变场长轴近NW展布升降轨形变场符号相反,视线向最大沉降量和抬升量为0.1 m。InSAR同震形变场反演的滑动分布主要集中在沿走向2～12 km,倾向1～9 km的范围内,最大滑动量0.35 m,发震断层长9.8 km、宽4 km,滑动量主要集中在地下3～6 km范围内,滑动角-146.7°。同震位移场及滑动分布模型反映本次地震为发震断层的右旋走滑事件,地震破裂未达到地表。断层模型反演结果显示,矩震级为M_W6.1,发震断层以北西走向右旋走滑运动为主,初步认为本次M_W6.1地震发震断裂可能是一条NW向的维西—乔后断裂西侧的隐伏次生断裂。     

Analysis of Abnormal Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the Menyuan MS6.4 Earthquake by GPS Continuous Data

In order to study the characteristics of crustal deformation around the epicenter before the 2016 M_S6.4 Menyuan earthquake, the GPS continuous stations of the period from 2010 to 2016 were selected according to the observation data of the tectonic environment monitoring network in Chinese Mainland. The deformation characteristics of the crust before the earthquake were discussed through inter-station baseline time series analysis and the strain time series analysis in the epicentral region. The results show that a trend turn of the baseline movement state around the epicenter region occurred after 2014, and the movement after 2014 reflects an obvious decreasing trend of compressional deformation. During this period, the stress field energy was in a certain accumulation state. Since the beginning of 2014, the EW-component linear strain and surface strain rate weakened gradually before the earthquake. It shows that there was an obvious deformation deficit at the epicentral area in the past two years, which indicates that the region accumulated a high degree of strain energy before the earthquake. Therefore, there was a significant background change in the area before the earthquake. The results of the study can provide basic research data for understanding the seismogenic process and mechanism of this earthquake.     

2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震前后气枪震源观测走时数据的变化

以2017年3月27日漾濞5.1级地震为例,根据区域特性和信噪比要求,选取数据较为完整的6个台站记录的2017年1月1日～6月6日期间的宾川地震信号发射台气枪震源波形资料,采用互相关检测技术提取6个台站各自稳定震相的走时数据,并对漾濞5.1级地震前后走时数据的变化情况进行分析。结果表明,漾濞5.1级地震前后6个台站各自稳定震相存在较为明显的走时变化,且短期内走时变化具有较好的同步性,相关台站异常幅度大小和异常出现时间存在细小差异。地震发生前,6个台站走时低值异常过程明显,以YUL台最为显著。地震发生前后走时变化形态特征为双“V”型,漾濞5.1级地震发生在第1个“V”型末端。地震发生后,不同方位相关台站受地震的影响程度不同,走时波动大小存在差异。     

Spatiotemporal evolution of the 2021 MS6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence

Based on the seismic phase reports of the Yangbi area from January 1 to June 25, 2021, and the waveform data of M ≥ 4 earthquakes, we obtained the relocation results and focal mechanism solutions of the M_S6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence using the HypoDD and CAP methods. Based on our results, our main conclusions are as follows: (1) the M_S6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence is a typical foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence. The foreshocks of the first two stages have the obvious fronts of migration and their migration rate increased gradually. There was no apparent front of migration during the third stage, and the occurrence of the mainshock was related to stress triggering from a M5.3 foreshock. We tentatively speculate that the rupture pattern of the Yangbi earthquake sequence conforms to the cascading-rupture model; and (2) the main fault of the M_S6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence is a NW-trending right-lateral strike-slip fault. As time progressed, a minor conjugate aftershock belt formed at the northwest end of this fault, and a dendritic branching structure emerged in the southern fault segment, showing a complex seismogenic fault structure. We suggested that the fault of the Yangbi earthquake sequence may be a young sub-fault of the Weixi-Weishan fault.     

Using Airgun Source Signals to Study Regional Wave Velocity Changes before and after the Yunlong MS5.0 and Yangbi MS5.1 Earthquakes

On the basis of the airgun source signals recorded by the stations from January, 2016 to June, 2017, we use cross-correlation detection technology to obtain the characteristics of the stable phase travel time change of each station. We used the Yunlong M_S5.0 and Yangbi M_S5.1 earthquakes as samples. According to regional characteristics, 13 stations with high signal-to-noise ratios and complete data were selected (including 3 fixed stations and 10 active source stations). They are divided into four regions, and on the basis of the GNSS baseline data, the characteristics of regional wave velocity changes before and after the earthquake are analyzed. The results show that the station phase travel time change and the regional stress characteristics represented by the GNSS baseline data have good correlation in the short-term. Due to different degrees of regional stress, there are differences in the travel time changes of different stations in the four regions. Before the Yunlong M_S5.0 and Yangbi M_S5.1 earthquakes, with regional stress adjustment, there is an upward trend in the travel time changes of related stations in the adjacent areas of up to 0.02s. The difference is that there are differences in the time nodes and duration of the travel time anomalies, and there is a reverse descent process after the Yangbi M_S5.1 earthquake. There are different degrees of travel time fluctuations in the relevant stations before and after the two earthquakes, but the fluctuation range before and after the earthquake was small. Compared with the water level change of the reservoir, the adjustment of the regional stress is more likely to have a substantial impact on the travel time changes of the relevant stations.